Global Warming: Some good news (Full Version)

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DelightMachine -> Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 12:41:17 PM)

After I read this article, I felt a bit better about global warming. The author says it's undeniable that there is man-made global warming, and I'm becoming convinced of it. But he also says there are things we can do about it without destroying the economy, and some technologies already exist.
et a load of this:
quote:

New techniques for generating electricity will come into use.
Do you think some multibillion-dollar government crash program is needed to develop coal-fired power plants that emit no greenhouse gases? General Electric has already perfected this technology and is already offering it to utility companies. Many utility companies are merely waiting for a federal greenhouse gas reduction program to be decided upon, and then will start building zero-greenhouse coal-burning power plants using technology that already exists.

-- p. 13

I sure hope he's right, and he's a pretty responsible commentator, so I think he is. The author, Gregg Easterbrook, has written for The New Republic and Slate and wrote this article for the Brookings Institution.

He may be a bit optimistic: Essentially he says that if the government mandates that carbon dioxide emissions be lowered, and lets the free market figure out how to do it, it will happen. That may be too optimistic, but he points out that the same policy essentially worked with auto emissions (pp. 10-12).

This is also interesting:

quote:

Most nations that have ratified the Kyoto treaty are merrily ignoring it. Canada, for example, frequently hectors the United States about being an environmental offender, yet its greenhouse gas emissions are currently 24 percent above the level mandated by Kyoto—and Ottawa has no meaningful program to change that. Canada's greenhouse gas emissions are also rising faster than greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Even Japan, which staked much of its international prestige on an agreement signed in its glorious ancient capital city, is turning a blind eye to treaty’s requirements: Japan's emissions of greenhouse gases are 9 percent above promised level.

At current rates only Russia, Germany and the United Kingdom are close to complying with the Kyoto mandates, and most of the compliance by Russia and Germany is the result of backdated credits for the closing of Warsaw Pact-era power plants and factories that had already been shuttered before the Kyoto agreement was initialed in 1997. Meanwhile, developing nations especially India and China are increasing their greenhouse gas emissions at prodigious rates—so much so that in the short term developing nations will swamp any reductions achieved by the West. Since 1990, India has increased its emissions of greenhouse gases by 70 percent and China by 49 percent, versus an 18 percent increase by the United States. China is on track to pass the United States as the leading emitter of artificial greenhouse gases. If current trends continue, the developing world will emit more greenhouse gases than the West by around 2025. And here’s the real kicker: even if all the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol were enforced to perfection, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases in the year 2050 would be only about 1 percent less than without the treaty.
  
-- pp. 8-9
 
So there are big challenges, but reason for hope, too.





meatcleaver -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 1:03:40 PM)

New technology will not stop the change in climate according to most scientists as the process as been started but will slow the change down. In order to reverse the process, this requires deep cuts and a substantial increase in rain forests which are still being cut down at an alarming rate.

As for percentages and statistics, like always, they can be misleading. The USA uses 23% of the worlds energy with 5% of the population and causes 25% of the world's greenhouse gases, each American using an average of double the energy of EU citizens. Europe (including the EU) uses 13%, China 13% and India around 13% of the worlds energy. If the US refuses to cut back then it's pointless anyone else cutting back because it won't make a difference.

The average citizen in India and China uses a minute amount of energy compared to the US and Europe so it is churlish of the west to try to impose cuts in greenhouse gases on these countries before the west is willing to make cuts.

With the current situation of I'm not doing anything before you, we are basically fucked.




DelightMachine -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 1:18:10 PM)

meatcleaver, the U.S. also produces more than a quarter of the World's gross product. About a quarter of the world's economy happens to be located here.

You should really read the article.





Lordandmaster -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 1:21:26 PM)

The good news about global warming is that we'll have to solve the problem, or we'll die.  Necessity is the mother of invention.




DelightMachine -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 1:45:10 PM)

I wanted to recheck that statement I made about the U.S. having 25 percent of the world's economy. It looks like that's about right.
 
Wikipedia (link), citing the IMF, says the U.S. has more than 25 percent of the entire global economy.

"The table below includes data for the year
2005 for all 180 members of the International Monetary Fund, for which information is available. Data are in millions of current United States dollars."

Rank  /  Country  /  GDP
World economy
44,433,002
European Union 13,446,050
United States 12,485,725


The CIA World Factbook (link) says the U.S. share is lower, largely because they have a higher estimate for the overall world economy (and that seems to be because they're measuring "purchasing power parity"):

Rank
Country / GDP (purchasing power parity) / Date of Information

1
World $ 59,590,000,000,000 2005 est.
2
United States $ 12,410,000,000,000 2005 est.
3
European Union $ 12,180,000,000,000 2005 est.





Estring -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 1:56:05 PM)

I am wondering what happened to "global cooling"? In the 70's the chicken littles were screaming that the world's climate was cooling and predicted dire consequences because of it. I guess we survived that crisis, huh?. And now we have "global warming" to worry about? The truth is, this world has had climate changes all through it's history. And amazingly, the changes occured even before humans existed! Imagine that.We will adapt to any changes that will occur just as we always have, and bringing a wonderful society like the USA to a halt because of a hysterical belief that we are the cause of a catostrophic warming trend is ridiculous. And the fact that Al Gore of all people is such a believer in this theory should tell you all you need to know about the truth of it.  




Lordandmaster -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 2:07:03 PM)

Estring, have you read a single scientific study of global warming?  It doesn't sound like it.




Estring -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 2:30:53 PM)

Yes I have, and not just from scientists who believe in the threat. There are just as many scientists who don't believe that this is a coming catastrophe. The fact that the climate changes does not mean that we are responsible. I would bet many of these same people were screaming about global cooling. And I am sure they had data to back up their claims. I choose not to believe them.




Lordandmaster -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 2:36:08 PM)

I'd appreciate it if you could cite an article by a scientist who "doesn't believe in the threat," because I haven't read one in at least five years, and I follow the subject closely.  But the author has to be a SCIENTIST, not a lawyer or energy lobbyist.

quote:

not just from scientists who believe in the threat




MistressLorelei -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 2:38:45 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Estring

I am wondering what happened to "global cooling"? In the 70's the chicken littles were screaming that the world's climate was cooling and predicted dire consequences because of it. I guess we survived that crisis, huh?. And now we have "global warming" to worry about? The truth is, this world has had climate changes all through it's history. And amazingly, the changes occured even before humans existed! Imagine that.We will adapt to any changes that will occur just as we always have, and bringing a wonderful society like the USA to a halt because of a hysterical belief that we are the cause of a catostrophic warming trend is ridiculous. And the fact that Al Gore of all people is such a believer in this theory should tell you all you need to know about the truth of it.  


Al Gore is doing wonders in raising awareness (though there is still obviously a lot more to raise) of this huge problem that the entire world has to take steps to mend what can be mended, and to stop further damage to what can't be mended. 

Our glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica are melting at much higher rates than they were several years ago,  our weather conditions have already begun to significantly change, and are forecasted to change severely in ways we have never experienced. Wildlife is dying due to changing climates, and changes in their habitats, we are on the verge of losing coastal cities (NY, Miami, Venice, etc.) to rising waters.... these are not theories, but documented science.  




Level -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 2:52:45 PM)

I read this today on global warming, here's a link to the US News & World Report site to check it out.
 
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/060605/5warming.htm




keme -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 3:17:11 PM)

*just shakes my head*




meatcleaver -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 3:45:48 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DelightMachine

I wanted to recheck that statement I made about the U.S. having 25 percent of the world's economy. It looks like that's about right.
 
Wikipedia (link), citing the IMF, says the U.S. has more than 25 percent of the entire global economy.

"The table below includes data for the year
2005 for all 180 members of the International Monetary Fund, for which information is available. Data are in millions of current United States dollars."

Rank  /  Country  /  GDP
World economy
44,433,002
European Union 13,446,050
United States 12,485,725


The CIA World Factbook (link) says the U.S. share is lower, largely because they have a higher estimate for the overall world economy (and that seems to be because they're measuring "purchasing power parity"):

Rank
Country / GDP (purchasing power parity) / Date of Information

1
World $ 59,590,000,000,000 2005 est.
2
United States $ 12,410,000,000,000 2005 est.
3
European Union $ 12,180,000,000,000 2005 est.




Energy consumption not GDP!!!  The average American consumes twice as much energy as the average European. It is energy consumption that is causing global warming, not  a country's GDP. The two don't neccessarily correlate.

For example, gas prices in America are more than twice as cheap as the EU. That alone encourages consumption and waste. There is waste in Europe which show's Europe's energy prices aren't high enough. It is only price hikes on carbon fuels that will encourage reduced use and companies to pursue new technologies.




Estring -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 5:16:04 PM)

If you would like the truth about the state of the world, go to www.lomborg.com. That is the website for Bjorn Lomborg who is a professor at The Copenhagen Business School. He has written a great book called "The Skeptical Environmentalist". You can read the first chapter in the book where he printed an excerpt from a 1975 article in Time magazine which bemoans the coming global cooling and cites the exact problems that are now being attributed to global warming. Now if global cooling was going to be such a disaster, wouldn't global warming be better for us?
The fact is that in any way you want to talk about, things are better for more people in the world than they were even 10 years ago. People live longer, they are more educated, and they eat better than ever in the history of the world.
And the book also deals with the lies about the rain forest and over population.
If you want to believe the world is getting worse and worse, that is your right, but at least have the facts to back it up.




DelightMachine -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 5:59:14 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: meatcleaver
Energy consumption not GDP!!!  The average American consumes twice as much energy as the average European. It is energy consumption that is causing global warming, not  a country's GDP. The two don't neccessarily correlate.


You know what? Essentially, I agree with you. I agree that, per capita, the U.S. emits more greenhouse gases.

I also agree that we should have higher prices as the best way of conserving energy. I've said that in earlier threads.

But the reasons for the U.S. having high rates of per capita greenhouse gas emissions aren't because we're all driving SUVs. My point was that if a country is producing more, then it naturally will have more greenhouse gas emissions. Bigger economies tend to have more pollution, at least in some ways. I really don't think you read too closely, meatcleaver.

Actually, and read closely now, when I did a little tooling around the Web, I found this chart on Wikipedia which compares greenhouse gas emissions and GDP. It shows that even when you consider increased production in the U.S., we use more energy:


I can't reproduce the chart here so go to that Web page to see the exact details, but this gives you an idea:

Rank / Country / GDP (milUS$) /CO2 emissions/GDP per Emissions

-- European Union / 13,926,873   /   3,682,755   /      3.782
14 Japan   /                 4,799,061   /    1,203,535  /      3.987
39 United States   /   12,438,873   /    5,872,278  /      2.118
38 Canada           /     1,098,446   /       517,157  /      2.124 
41 Australia         /        692,436    /      356,342  /      1.943

(Sorry, I can't line up these columns.)

CO2 emissions aren't all greenhouse gas emissions, but they're the most important part. The European Union average ranks between #15 and #16. The U.K., by the way, ranks #13. Top three are Switzerland, Sweden and Iceland.

Producing more is extremely important, not just for what it does for that country's citizens, but for people elsewhere, too, who benefit from it. I think it's natural that if we're producing more and richer than, say, the European Union, we're going to have more of these emissions.

quote:

For example, gas prices in America are more than twice as cheap as the EU. That alone encourages consumption and waste. There is waste in Europe which show's Europe's energy prices aren't high enough. It is only price hikes on carbon fuels that will encourage reduced use and companies to pursue new technologies.


Some things to keep in mind when you talk about waste. BTU consumption per capita in the United States is actually down to 340 from its height of 360 in the late 1970s:

Figure 2.  Energy Consumption per Person

Also, see Figure 3, which points out that the amount of energy used to create a given amount of GDP "in 2004 was 49 percent below that of 1970."
 
Over time, we're using less energy to produce more in the United States (I think the same thing is true in Great Britain, and it's certainly true for greenhouse gas emissions). See Figure 63 on the same page.

 
Waste? Yeah, but put it in perspective: The United States is a big country, like Canada and Australia. Like Japan, a lot of the European Union is very compact with very high populations. That's going to mean less driving per person in the EU or Japan.
 
That said, we could certainly do more: We could increase nuclear power production from about 20 percent of our electricity generation to up over 50 percent, which it is in France. We could make it even more expensive for people to ride in unnecessary SUVs, and we could do other things. The point of my OP was that it's very do-able.

 




MistressLorelei -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 7:29:55 PM)

Here are just a few of the many resources available which provide information of how controversial Lomborg's work is... and how his work has been and continues to be disputed by scientists.  I suppose anyone can throw all of their beliefs into the work of one anti-environmental extremist and ignore the works of most everyone else in the scientific field... I would just have to wonder why.

http://www.tai.org.au/WhatsNew_Files/WhatsNew/lomborg.pdf

http://www.urban75.com/Action/news138.html

http://www.free-market.net/resources/fnn/2002mar/greens-debunked.html

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=773





Lordandmaster -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 10:42:51 PM)

I asked for a study by a SCIENTIST.  Bjorn Lomborg isn't a scientist.

And the fact that a Time magazine article from 1975 referred to global cooling hardly means that current work on global warming is invalid.  That's an atrocious fallacy.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Estring

If you would like the truth about the state of the world, go to www.lomborg.com. That is the website for Bjorn Lomborg who is a professor at The Copenhagen Business School.




Estring -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 11:07:12 PM)

Just because someone is a scientist doesn't mean they don't have an agenda. I am more interested in someone who looks for the truth. And as he explains in his book, many of the scientific findings have been taken by groups (such as Greenpeace), and totally skewed so that they will match whatever agenda they are pushing.




Estring -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 11:12:04 PM)

Controversial to the people who disagree with him. His conclusions make sense to me and many others (including many scientists), because they match reality no matter how hard you may wish they didn't.




Lordandmaster -> RE: Global Warming: Some good news (5/29/2006 11:15:32 PM)

Like who?

I guess we're going around in circles with this.  I'll let it drop.  But if you really believe that as many scientists doubt global warming as are convinced of it, you're simply mistaken.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Estring

His conclusions make sense to me and many others (including many scientists)




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