RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (Full Version)

All Forums >> [Community Discussions] >> Dungeon of Political and Religious Discussion



Message


vincentML -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 12:37:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

" So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."

Are we back on WMd`s again ? [;)]


There is always a monster hiding under the bed, ps. If not, then one will be invented.

quote:

To be honest the earth has had seismic weather changes throughout history. Ireland and Scotland were once at the Equator. The North Atlantic, North Sea and English Channel didnt exist. mankind have only been on earth for the tiniest fraction of its history.


All quite true but ignored by AGW ethusiasts.

quote:

Yet to claim that we are not affecting the planet by our behaviour is just a crass way of denying the obvious. How do people think an island of plastic and rubbish, twice the size of Texas, came to be floating in the pacific ocean ?


Also quite true. But not the kind of rubbish being discussed in this thread.




Politesub53 -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 1:01:08 PM)

Mans other kind of pollutant Vincent [;)]




Hillwilliam -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 1:10:52 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

To be honest the earth has had seismic weather changes throughout history. Ireland and Scotland were once at the Equator. The North Atlantic, North Sea and English Channel didnt exist. mankind have only been on earth for the tiniest fraction of its history.


All quite true but ignored by AGW ethusiasts.


Do you honestly believe that scientists don't understand the age of the earth, continental drift (which, by the way was unknown as recently as 50 years ago) and the fact that things have changed back and forth over the past 4.6 billion years?

The only thing AGW people claim is:

1. Climate is changing faster than can be accounted for by looking at past trends.

2. CO2 concentrations are greater than they were prior to the industrial revolution as a consequence of burning fossil fuels.

3. CO2 is one of the so called 'green house gasses' that WILL trap heat. (if it went for a little CO2, the planet would be basically uninhabitable)

4. It is reasonable to assume that more CO2 in the atmosphere will probably lead to higher temps.



Even the deniers only claim that "Temperatures aren't rising as quickly as the models stated" or "Less rise" they don't say climate isnt changing, they only say that either we aren't causing it or that we arent doing as much damage as some say we are. One poster here showed 10 years where things stabilized but if you take the entire period of 1820-present, you have a definite warming trend. Ten years does not a trend make. 100 years is the mere beginning of a climactic trend. The problem is that by the time you have definitive evidence of manmade warming, it's too late. Kind of like starting down the mountain in a car that 'probably' has good brakes. By the time you fond out otherwise, it's too late.

We're going to have to change from fossil carbon based energy eventually anyway. Why not get a head start on the rest of the world before the Chinese decide to kick our ass.




Aylee -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 3:09:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

LaT. A lot of folks on both sides confuse weather which is a local short term phenomenon with climate which is a worldwide long term thing.

Weather is easy to determine. Climate, not so much.

I'll restate tho that even the deniers admit things have warmed in the last 150 years they just argue that A: we arent the cause and B: things wont keep getting warmer.


C: The difficulty of taking accurate temperatures. It is pretty difficult to get accurate temperature readings at .1 degrees. Even off of human skin. Jerry Pournelle discusses the difficulties they had in his aerospace career and I can get you a link if you want. It is pretty well agreed that the Earth has warmed 1 degree a century since 1800.

D: The modeling they do is not very good.




vincentML -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 3:48:22 PM)

quote:

Do you honestly believe that scientists don't understand the age of the earth, continental drift (which, by the way was unknown as recently as 50 years ago) and the fact that things have changed back and forth over the past 4.6 billion years?


Errmmm . . . not what I said. Have another look. I said nothing about 'scientists.'

AGWs refuse to consider the possibilities that (1) we are undergoing a natural, cyclical phenomenon, or (2) some other agency is involved. Well, they don't refuse to consider those possibilities; they set out to bannish them. And those who are sceptical of the received wizdom from the IPCC are attacked and denigrated as heretics. The OP, probably unintentionally and unknowingly [cuz I believe her to be of good heart] repeats the slanderous accusation that the sceptics are 'deniers' - a term emotional charged from its association with those who deny the Jewish Holocaust. Elsewhere I have read that we are ignorant, right-winger, flat-earthers. We are not all in the same category. Some of us simply are dubious of the science employed, the conclusions drawn, and the remedies proposed. Where is the Minority Report in the IPCC? There was 100% agreement? To borrow from Firm above: consensus is not science; it is politics.

quote:

1. Climate is changing faster than can be accounted for by looking at past trends.
2. CO2 concentrations are greater than they were prior to the industrial revolution as a consequence of burning fossil fuels.
3. CO2 is one of the so called 'green house gasses' that WILL trap heat. (if it went for a little CO2, the planet would be basically uninhabitable)
4. It is reasonable to assume that more CO2 in the atmosphere will probably lead to higher temps.


1. depends on how far back you look. There have been previous warming trends. Grapes were grown in England. There is a Vinyard Street in London.
2. CO2 was highly accumulated in the atmosphere during previous interglacials prior to the evolution of man.
3. The major greenhouse gas is H2O not CO2. The major cause of methane CH4 is animal farts. All of these gases travel in cycles within a closed atmosphere. Hence they are subject to dynamic equilibria.
4. Not at all a reasonable or necessary assumption. If you look back at the 130,000 year interglacial shown previously somewhere above you will see that very high levels of CO2 remained in the air for 15,000 years as glaciation took place. That violates the current orthodoxy.

quote:

The problem is that by the time you have definitive evidence of manmade warming, it's too late. Kind of like starting down the mountain in a car that 'probably' has good brakes. By the time you fond out otherwise, it's too late.


What constitutes 'definitive evidence?' The 'science' has already been proclaimed 'settled.' The Kyoto Protocol has already prescribed action that has the potential IMHO to be hazardous to the growing population of earth, especially the impoverished.

quote:

We're going to have to change from fossil carbon based energy eventually anyway. Why not get a head start on the rest of the world before the Chinese decide to kick our ass.


It appears you are concerned more about geo-politics than science.

The proposed alternative fuels are inadequate for a variety of reasons to resolve our future energy needs. Here is a good read of the Pros and Cons Have a look.







tweakabelle -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 3:52:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

As I said ... "consensus" isn't science. Neither is much of the information and conclusions about AGW "science", since the basis of it isn't based on the scientific method of inquiry.


The crystal ball of the carny fortune teller has been replaced by a computer. But still GIGO.

I'm sorry guys, you're both wrong here. This is a popular fallacy.

Not all 'science' can be represented mathematically and therefore subject to the clean proofs available in maths or Formal Logic. Think the Theory of Evolution for example. A common method of proof in science is risk analysis or Probability Theory/Analysis. A claim is considered proved if the probability can be demonstrated to be of the requisite dimensions.

Ultimately something is considered scientifically true when the vast majority of scientists agree it's proved ie when a scientific consensus is established. There are lot of problems and flaws with using risk analysis as a proof or standard of truth IMHO. Nonetheless it is science as it is practiced.




vincentML -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 4:01:50 PM)

quote:

A claim is considered proved if the probability can be demonstrated to be of the requisite dimensions.


Nothing is proved in science. The null hypothesis is tested to a degree of probability or improbability.

quote:

Think the Theory of Evolution for example


A consensus was formed over a long period of time, not just a decade as in the current case, and not by political committee!

Off to watch Yank football. Back tomorrow - the good lord willing and the creek don't rise [:D]




tweakabelle -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 4:09:33 PM)

quote:


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

A claim is considered proved if the probability can be demonstrated to be of the requisite dimensions.


Nothing is proved in science. The null hypothesis is tested to a degree of probability or improbability.


Yes. What you said is the theory. What I said is the practice/reality.

quote:



quote:

Think the Theory of Evolution for example


A consensus was formed over a long period of time, not just a decade as in the current case, and not by political committee!

Off to watch Yank football. Back tomorrow - the good lord willing and the creek don't rise [:D]

I'm glad you now agree that consensus is the criterion of proof in science.

Enjoy your game. [:D]




InvisibleBlack -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 4:26:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
Ultimately something is considered scientifically true when the vast majority of scientists agree it's proved ie when a scientific consensus is established. There are lot of problems and flaws with using risk analysis as a proof or standard of truth IMHO. Nonetheless it is science as it is practiced.


*blink*

Wow. Is that what they're teaching these days? No wonder things are falling apart. Wow.

Science has nothing to do with consensus. I will in fact state that consensus is probably inimical to science in general. Science requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.

Getting a "majority" of scientists together who will all claim that you're right does not make you right, certainly not if your experiment cannot be reproduced nor if even a single person can conduct an experiment which disproves your theory. Group agreement is not valid science.

Scientific consensus is garbage. Historically it has served only to shackle, suppress and restrict the growth of human knowledge and to repress discovery and free thinking. If that is the state of current dogma, if that's what they're preaching these days, then they deserve every catastrophe that's going to hit them.

[Edited: Typos]




Aylee -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 4:43:09 PM)

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-01/human-co2-emissions-could-avert-next-ice-age-study-says

quote:

Earth could be entering a new Ice Age within the next millennium, but it might not, the deep freeze averted by warming from increased carbon dioxide emissions. Humans could be thwarting the next glacial inception, a new study says.

Even in the comparatively long time scales of Earth history, we’re kind of overdue for another ice age — our current Holocene era has lasted about 11,600 years, roughly 600 years longer than the average interglacial (between-ice-age) periods of the past. If atmospheric CO2 levels were lower, the next ice age might have started sometime within the next 1,000 years, according to researchers from University College London and Cambridge University.



Fallen Angels anyone?





InvisibleBlack -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 4:47:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aylee

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-01/human-co2-emissions-could-avert-next-ice-age-study-says

quote:

Earth could be entering a new Ice Age within the next millennium, but it might not, the deep freeze averted by warming from increased carbon dioxide emissions. Humans could be thwarting the next glacial inception, a new study says.

Even in the comparatively long time scales of Earth history, we’re kind of overdue for another ice age — our current Holocene era has lasted about 11,600 years, roughly 600 years longer than the average interglacial (between-ice-age) periods of the past. If atmospheric CO2 levels were lower, the next ice age might have started sometime within the next 1,000 years, according to researchers from University College London and Cambridge University.



Fallen Angels anyone?





Ooooo ... Niven & Pournelle. Priceless. (Although the theory that civilization would be saved by rabid fandom was truly science fiction.) [;)]




tweakabelle -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 8:34:08 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: InvisibleBlack

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
Ultimately something is considered scientifically true when the vast majority of scientists agree it's proved ie when a scientific consensus is established. There are lot of problems and flaws with using risk analysis as a proof or standard of truth IMHO. Nonetheless it is science as it is practiced.


*blink*

Wow. Is that what they're teaching these days? No wonder things are falling apart. Wow.

Science has nothing to do with consensus. I will in fact state that consensus is probably inimical to science in general. Science requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.

Getting a "majority" of scientists together who will all claim that you're right does not make you right, certainly not if your experiment cannot be reproduced nor if even a single person can conduct an experiment which disproves your theory. Group agreement is not valid science.

Scientific consensus is garbage. Historically it has served only to shackle, suppress and restrict the growth of human knowledge and to repress discovery and free thinking. If that is the state of current dogma, if that's what they're preaching these days, then they deserve every catastrophe that's going to hit them.

[Edited: Typos]

FWIW, Invisible, I agree with most of the points you are making here. There are also the effects of a classic insider-outsider discourse to be taken into account. And the power associated with being granted the privileged position of arbiter of truth.

In fairness, it should be pointed out that inside Science the better people tend to be a lot more sensitive to these flaws. "The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus." seems spot on to me. Thomas Kuhn's 'The Structure of Scientific Revolutions' has demonstrated the accuracy of this claim. However once the media gets hold of things and re-hashes matters for public consumption*, and then packages that mish-mash as truth, things, as you say, get really out of control.

I imagine it would be comparatively easy to assemble a case that the entire climate change debate is, to significant extent, a consequence of these defects. Rightly or wrongly, that is the impression I am getting.


*see for example the Forbes magazine article and the controversy it started earlier in the thread. (post #127 and subsequent posts)




Hillwilliam -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 9:04:15 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aylee

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-01/human-co2-emissions-could-avert-next-ice-age-study-says

quote:

Earth could be entering a new Ice Age within the next millennium, but it might not, the deep freeze averted by warming from increased carbon dioxide emissions. Humans could be thwarting the next glacial inception, a new study says.

Even in the comparatively long time scales of Earth history, we’re kind of overdue for another ice age — our current Holocene era has lasted about 11,600 years, roughly 600 years longer than the average interglacial (between-ice-age) periods of the past. If atmospheric CO2 levels were lower, the next ice age might have started sometime within the next 1,000 years, according to researchers from University College London and Cambridge University.



Fallen Angels anyone?



I saw a different, very similar, article today that we may be staving off the next ice age with CO2.

But, if CO2 doesn't affect the weather as the deniers say, alas, we are lost.




Hillwilliam -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/9/2012 9:17:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

Do you honestly believe that scientists don't understand the age of the earth, continental drift (which, by the way was unknown as recently as 50 years ago) and the fact that things have changed back and forth over the past 4.6 billion years?


Errmmm . . . not what I said. Have another look. I said nothing about 'scientists.'

AGWs refuse to consider the possibilities that (1) we are undergoing a natural, cyclical phenomenon, or (2) some other agency is involved. Well, they don't refuse to consider those possibilities; they set out to bannish them. And those who are sceptical of the received wizdom from the IPCC are attacked and denigrated as heretics. The OP, probably unintentionally and unknowingly [cuz I believe her to be of good heart] repeats the slanderous accusation that the sceptics are 'deniers' - a term emotional charged from its association with those who deny the Jewish Holocaust. Elsewhere I have read that we are ignorant, right-winger, flat-earthers. We are not all in the same category. Some of us simply are dubious of the science employed, the conclusions drawn, and the remedies proposed. Where is the Minority Report in the IPCC? There was 100% agreement? To borrow from Firm above: consensus is not science; it is politics.

quote:

1. Climate is changing faster than can be accounted for by looking at past trends.
2. CO2 concentrations are greater than they were prior to the industrial revolution as a consequence of burning fossil fuels.
3. CO2 is one of the so called 'green house gasses' that WILL trap heat. (if it went for a little CO2, the planet would be basically uninhabitable)
4. It is reasonable to assume that more CO2 in the atmosphere will probably lead to higher temps.


1. depends on how far back you look. There have been previous warming trends. Grapes were grown in England. There is a Vinyard Street in London.
2. CO2 was highly accumulated in the atmosphere during previous interglacials prior to the evolution of man.
3. The major greenhouse gas is H2O not CO2. The major cause of methane CH4 is animal farts. All of these gases travel in cycles within a closed atmosphere. Hence they are subject to dynamic equilibria.
4. Not at all a reasonable or necessary assumption. If you look back at the 130,000 year interglacial shown previously somewhere above you will see that very high levels of CO2 remained in the air for 15,000 years as glaciation took place. That violates the current orthodoxy.

quote:

The problem is that by the time you have definitive evidence of manmade warming, it's too late. Kind of like starting down the mountain in a car that 'probably' has good brakes. By the time you fond out otherwise, it's too late.


What constitutes 'definitive evidence?' The 'science' has already been proclaimed 'settled.' The Kyoto Protocol has already prescribed action that has the potential IMHO to be hazardous to the growing population of earth, especially the impoverished.

quote:

We're going to have to change from fossil carbon based energy eventually anyway. Why not get a head start on the rest of the world before the Chinese decide to kick our ass.


It appears you are concerned more about geo-politics than science.

The proposed alternative fuels are inadequate for a variety of reasons to resolve our future energy needs. Here is a good read of the Pros and Cons Have a look.





Vince. The AGW debate started with scientists. They are the ones with the data.

They don't claim that cycles don't occur as I said in point one. What they claim is that the change is occurring faster than historically.

Just because there are other greenhouse gasses than CO2, are you saying that cutting down on CO2 woun't do any good?
That makes about as much sense as saying "Well, FUKIT. My debt is only partially these credit cards so it makes no sense to quit using them.

Your point about alternative fuels being inadequate. Says WHO?
The only people who say that alternative fuels will never take the place of oil are those who are making a shitload of money off(you guessed it) oil.

It WILL run out some day. When that happens, civilization as we know it is OVAH, finit, Off like a prom dress.

This country IS capable of producing clean, cheap energy if we put our minds to it. When that happens, we will once again be the world leader in science and manufacturing.

Those who want status quo talk about all the money that will be made by those who are supposedly 'connected'. DAMN RIGHT money will be made and it'll be Americans making it. Those on the Right say that the wealthy are job creators. Well, Let's create some goddam energy millionaires and put them to work creating jobs.

I hear whining about the EPA. I have a good friend who employs about 150 people +/- at any given time servicing, installing and fabricating stack scrubbers all over the US.
The worst paid laborer makes about 40K/year and he has crane operators and welders pushing 100+ and none of them are union. Every one of those people is an American. No foreign workers and he's one of the biggest employers in the county.

Green tech creates good paying jobs for Americans.

But oh my God, Al Gore might make a mil so we have to kill it.




Politesub53 -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/10/2012 3:32:46 AM)

The one big problem with Green technology is the cost. You have to convince home owners and car users, who need to watch their budgets, that it is affordable short term. There is also a problem of reliability. Last winter wind farms were unproductive due to no wind, as obvious as that sounds, it took place during the very cold snap in the UK, the time when the energy was most needed (for heating). This winter we had the absurd sight of gale force winds causing turbines to explode. There are also a big question regards cost of hooking wind farms to the national grid.

All of the above are major problems that need to be solved before you can get the general public to fully embrace new technology.




Sanity -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/10/2012 6:07:26 AM)


Which is why certain leftists *cough* OBAMA *cough*would like nothing better than to see the cost of energy soar. Green energy would seem affordable in comparison, if only such leftists could choke off poor peoples' access to traditional affordable energy, a goal which theyve been working at for generations.

Now theyre using the "climate change" religious chant as their holy grail in this crusade, while the leftist power brokers on top are working with their cronies to make vast fortunes off other peoples' misery

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

The one big problem with Green technology is the cost. You have to convince home owners and car users, who need to watch their budgets, that it is affordable short term. There is also a problem of reliability. Last winter wind farms were unproductive due to no wind, as obvious as that sounds, it took place during the very cold snap in the UK, the time when the energy was most needed (for heating). This winter we had the absurd sight of gale force winds causing turbines to explode. There are also a big question regards cost of hooking wind farms to the national grid.

All of the above are major problems that need to be solved before you can get the general public to fully embrace new technology.




Hillwilliam -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/10/2012 6:10:00 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

The one big problem with Green technology is the cost. You have to convince home owners and car users, who need to watch their budgets, that it is affordable short term. There is also a problem of reliability. Last winter wind farms were unproductive due to no wind, as obvious as that sounds, it took place during the very cold snap in the UK, the time when the energy was most needed (for heating). This winter we had the absurd sight of gale force winds causing turbines to explode. There are also a big question regards cost of hooking wind farms to the national grid.

All of the above are major problems that need to be solved before you can get the general public to fully embrace new technology.


Expense? Keystone pipeline = 7 Billion (probably more) before a drop of petroleum flows thru it.
Every type of energy is expensive.

Hydroelectric dams don't work when there is insufficient precipitation but we've had them since the 20's around here. Solar for a business owner at this latitude with a South facing roof is to the point where the payback is about 7 years. After that, every dollar is gravy. If you can do that with another investment, BUY IT.
I have about 4200 SF of such a roof and Im trying to refinance my building for just that.
How much are we working on Fusion? During the 70's there was a lot of work done there and according to a friend in the Physics dept when I was in grad school, the NSF basically cut it all off just when things were getting close in the early/mid 80's. Politics much on that one?
Know why we use freaking FOOD to try to inefficiently produce ethanol instead of other biomass which is more efficient and uses marginal land unsuitable for corn? Ask the reps from Iowa about that one.

Get politicians and lobbyists away from the problem and a solution can be found.
One source probably isn't going to do it.




Hillwilliam -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/10/2012 6:18:06 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


Now theyre using the "climate change" religious chant as their holy grail in this crusade, while the leftist power brokers on top are working with their cronies to make vast fortunes off other peoples' misery


Aren't you the one chanting the mantra of don't tax the wealthy "The wealthy are job creators"?

Well, let's make some Goddam millionaires and put them to work creating jobs.
Who would you rather see wealthy? Americans or someone with an unpronouncable name that hates this place?

OOPS, I goofed. Only REPUBLICAN wealthy people create jobs.[:D]

Green energy can be cheaper than oil. Oil is a finite resource and will only get more expensive until we run out. (then what?)

Green energy is literally unlimited and will get cheaper as the technology matures.




Musicmystery -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/10/2012 6:39:58 AM)

quote:

Which is why certain leftists *cough* OBAMA *cough*would like nothing better than to see the cost of energy soar.


A lot of people would like to see energy costs soar. It would make extracting oil in currently held leases financially feasible. That extra oil would not increase supply in any measurable way at the pump, as much larger global factors are at play, but it would make oil men happy.

When oil costs doubled during the Bush administration, Canadian television revealed Texans dancing gleefully. U.S. TV seemed to have missed that story.

Oil was $23 a barrel in 2001. In 2005, it was $50.04. In July 2008 it hit $145.29.

February 2009, it was back down to $37.51. All very interesting.

Currently it's trading at $102.95, presumably amid middle east tensions.

Here's an interesting article exploring political partisanship and oil.

http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/is-oil-fueling-rise-in-political-partisanship.php




vincentML -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/10/2012 8:40:34 AM)

quote:

I'm glad you now agree that consensus is the criterion of proof in science.


[:D] ah, you are quick and clever, tweake. Love it [:D]

While I said a consensus formed around Darwinism I never said it is a "criterion of proof." The affirmation and support for Darwinism comes from experiments in genetics and medicine. Fruit flies anyone? The model of Evolution through natural and sexual selection offers testable predictions. Have we seen that in AGW?

quote:

FWIW, Invisible, I agree with most of the points you are making here. There are also the effects of a classic insider-outsider discourse to be taken into account. And the power associated with being granted the privileged position of arbiter of truth.


Oh yes! And try to get a research grant or tenure if you are deemed sceptical of the received wisdom.




Page: <<   < prev  5 6 7 8 [9]

Valid CSS!




Collarchat.com © 2025
Terms of Service Privacy Policy Spam Policy
0.078125