RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (Full Version)

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MasterSlaveLA -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 7:35:45 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

The central issue in the debate over anthropogenic climate change revolves around the causal role of CO2. The documentary film that started the currently never ending debate was presented by ex-veep Al Gore. In it he showed a graph of the temperature and atmospheric carbon data taken from the Vostok Ice Core over the last several hundred thousand years. It struck me when I saw it that contrary to what Gore was saying the rise in atmospheric carbon LAGGED the temperature rise. It clearly did not happen before hand. The same graph was published by the IPCC. I have seen it but I was unable to find it for this writing. It has been published elsewhere however.

I did find part of the graph in what appears to be a publication of the Uni of Wyoming

Have a look at the second line which is the temperature record and the third line which records the carbon concentration. The graph is read from RIGHT to LEFT because it represents time to the present. Notice two rapid temperature rises. The first began about 140,000 years ago. The second at about 18,000 years ago. These two blips represent interglacials. Look closely please. In both cases the rise in carbon FOLLOWS the temperature rise.

In the third paragraph below the graph the authors remark that the coefficient of correlation between the two variables is 0.81. We agree that correlation is not the same as cause/effect, right? They go on to state that: during times of cooling the CO2 changed after the temperature change, by up to 1000 years. This order of events is not what one would expect from the enhanced greenhouse effect. but they fudge the deglaciation periods by asserting the changes take place simultaneously. Who you gonna believe? Not your lyin’ eyes!

In an abstract from Science Magazine we learn that: High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 ± 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations. So, if changes in carbon dioxide concentrations follow changes in temperature, please tell me how anthropogenic green house gases are involved in the climate change that began around 1880.

Oh, and while you are at it please explain the occurrence of the Late Medieval Warming of 900-1300 [absent the green house gases of the industrial revolution] that preceded the Little Ice Age of 1310 – 1880.

So, is the series of IPCC reports just political junk science?

I wish to suggest that skepticism is a valid posture in the face of political/scientific consensus.



Sooooooooo, in short, the earth's natural climate swings affect CO2, as opposed to CO2 affecting climate.

[:)]





CharmCityCpl -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 7:43:35 PM)

WOW! Such controversy over a dead issue, only kept alive by power hungry politicians and the prostituted scientists who rely on their grants for support (my apologies to any real hookers out there!) Try googling CERN Cloud Project. There director of the Large Hadron Supercollider ordered the lead researcher to water down his findings, but prior to the experiment (to test the theory put forth by two Dutch scientists who were professionally crucified in 1996 for not drinking the anthropomorphic global warming cool aid) the lead researcher predicted the results, and stated that if the theory was proven WOULD ACCOUNT FOR 80%-100% OF ANY CLIMATE CHANGE OBSERVED IN RECENT HISTORY. GEE, that's a pretty major story! Wonder why you hear NOTHING about it in the mainstream media? Probably because the suns magnetic field waxing and waning and allowing ore preventing cosmic rays from seeding clouds doesn't serve anyone's political agenda. THAT my friends is what "settled science" looks like!




SilverBoat -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 7:48:57 PM)

I work in the oil industry, and like Winsome says, there's a reason that BP, Shell, etc, all the really big oil companies call themselves "Energy" companies nowadays. Their execs aren't stupid, they see the long-term issues, and they're scrabbling for control of coal, gas, alcohol, hydrogen, everything. They don't really give a damn what it is, they want to carve profits from it, and the longer they keep various rightwing lunatics and jackasses raging enough to obstruct rational public discussion and decisions, the more they'll wind up controlling and profiting in the end.

With regard to climate change, trends, cycles, influences, etc ... How long has it been since the Earth's atmosphere was reducing, not oxidizing? What fraction of its organic gases were eventually sequestered by anerobic microbes, and later by chlorophyllic lifeforms?

That's the fundamental baseline, and any major upset of the Earth's ecosphere could belch enough tera-tons of buried and submerged clathrates into the atmosphere that any species that couldn't rapidly evolve to breathe methane, ammonia or carbon-dioxide would join the fossil record.

Sure, that doesn't seem likely, short of a comet-strike overturning half an ocean basin, but 5C of warming could dry and torch billions of acre-feet of tundra-peat, reverse a dozen convective ocean currents, swamp the Sahara, dessicate Antartica, and generally leave the human race scrambling to feed the hundred-millions who survived the transition. And nobody really knows what the critical tipping points for atmospheric temperature and composition might be.

Yeah, yeah, cloud up the atmosphere enough, and the Earth's own heat of accumulation and radioactive decay will eventually cook the clouds off, and the whole cycle will start again, taking its hundreds, thousands, or whatever years. The point, however, is that some people (the real conservatives) look at that whole situation, and conclude that large-scale messing around with commerical effects on environmental stuff that is not well understood is probably not a good idea, like sticking fingers in an electrical socket before you've found its on/off switch. The pseudo-conservatives, along with various other plutopathic criminals, insist that the only plausible proof of 'bizness' upsetting the global climate enough to even warrant discussion would be catastrophic impact on their sacred-beyond-all-question profits.

The only reasons against shifting human economic systems towards less environmental impact all have to do with keeping currently profitable powerful entities in control of the status quo. Every other aspect would cost no human lives, and make no significant dint in any human freedom except the pursuit of greed and influence.

Blah ...

... I've better things to do this evening ...

... (That last not with regard to you, Winsome, but the topic in general. As usual, there seems to be group of good-willed people trying to engage in reasoned, rational discussion about a complicated matter, and a few rightwing lunatics trying to prevent that.)

...




Hillwilliam -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 8:16:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterSlaveLA

Sooooooooo, in short, the earth's natural climate swings affect CO2, as opposed to CO2 affecting climate.

[:)]



Actually his post doesn't say that at all.

It points out correlation, not causality. Even you should know that.




MasterSlaveLA -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 8:20:09 PM)

 
Actually, it does: "...the rise in atmospheric carbon LAGGED the temperature rise" -- even you should know that.





Hillwilliam -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 8:21:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterSlaveLA

 
Actually, it does: "...the rise in atmospheric carbon LAGGED the temperature rise" -- even you should know that.



That is called CORRELATION. Do you know the difference between correlation and causality? It doesn't look like it.




MasterSlaveLA -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 8:31:48 PM)

 
Link was provided for "where those conclusions came from".  [8|] (yawn)





tazzygirl -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 8:39:20 PM)

quote:

i see, feel, know, what is happening in my climate. Last winter was cold, from sept 1 to may 1. This year, very mild and above ave. temps. Next winter? who knows? Last summer? Not a day over 100 degrees, the summer before, 12 consecutive days above 100. Some years it snows more than others. Nothing in my climate has led me to believe, in my own personal observation (let's call it my own scientific observation) that it is getting warmer, or colder for that matter.


And it snowed in LA last Feb. And before that in 1922, 1935m 1947, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1962.. Malibu saw a dusting in 2007

The greatest snowfall recorded in downtown Los Angeles was 2 inches (5 cm) in 1932

What does all this tell us about global warming? Nothing.




Owner59 -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 8:49:27 PM)

So when will the cons get their lies straight?

It`s either the CO2 rise is natural and that in fact the earth`s temp is going up, naturally.

Or there`s no temp. rise at all and no climate change,at all.

Can`t have both lies,............they conflict.


We know the CO2 is coming from burning carbon (based fuels) that were formed and locked up as carbon, over millions of years, for millions of years.

It`s being released into the air in a relatively short time compared to the eons it took to render the carbon from CO2 form to plant form, then to oil, coal and gas.



Slowly,over hundreds of millions of years,the huge amounts jungle and plant life through their natural life processes,took carbon dioxide OUT of the earth`s atmosphere and rendered from a gas form to a solid form.



Then,in about 300 hundred years or so,we`ve reintroduced back into the atmosphere ,an amount of CO2 that took plant-life millions and millions and millions of years to take out.



This makes sense to even lay people.




Hippiekinkster -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 9:10:10 PM)


I'd say SilverBoat's got it right, although I don't have any direct knowledge of alt.energy research that Shell's doing. I'd guess that they are doing some alt.fuels research out at Westhollow, and alt.energy in the Netherlands. I'd also guess they were doing some research into bio-sourced feedstocks for their chemicals business.

I was involved in Enhanced Recovery research, and I feel fairly confident in saying that all the majors have potential reserves in the fields that have been depleted by primary and secondary production methods, but the economics don't yet justify using tertiary techniques.

I don't know if I still know anyone who works at Shell R&D. The few people I knew who went to Westhollow are all retired or elsewhere. I know I don't know anyone at my old digs, 'cause they closed the "campus".

"And the facility's teams made use of CT scan and magnetic resonance imaging machines from the nearby Texas Medical Center to examine tubular sections of rock retrieved from wells so they could test how to retrieve more oil by injecting steam or carbon dioxide into reservoirs. Such underground injection of carbon dioxide today has garnered much interest as a method to cut or eliminate greenhouse emissions from energy operations."
http://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Shell-outgrows-Bellaire-technology-hub-1764675.php#photo-1377328
Heh, that was me! And Jim K. And a couple of the Ph.Ds. We had our own machines; I never did any scans at TSU. I scanned (CT) probably about 600 cores, each about 3"D x 3'L. Each had to be scanned twice; two different current levels at 25kVA, IIRC. We calibrated the machine with a quartz disc and a limestone (IIRC) disc. How exciting, eh? [8D] Lots of overtime.

I had 3 labs in this very building. 10 years.


[image]local://upfiles/521089/166836C1230B4D6DB0DE796F8827E4F8.jpg[/image]




Hillwilliam -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 9:16:26 PM)

HK. In your opinion, are the oil companies stockpiling and 'sitting on' patents for alternative energy sources?

I mean, I realize it's just an educated opinion but I'm interested in learned opinions as opposed to the hysteria on both sides.




Hippiekinkster -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 9:40:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

HK. In your opinion, are the oil companies stockpiling and 'sitting on' patents for alternative energy sources?

I mean, I realize it's just an educated opinion but I'm interested in learned opinions as opposed to the hysteria on both sides.
Knowledge-wise, I have no clue as to whether that's occuring, Hill.

My opinion is that they are not. It wouldn't do any good in the long run, since China has engineering expertise in the alt.energy field, and they could easily read the patents and develop the concepts embodied therein (probably with improvements). And China has had no qualms in the past about stealing intellectual property.

It wouldn't be in the oil companies best interests, either, I'm thinking. Their reserves are their inventory. As long as the refinery side of the major integrateds remains as profitable as it is, it makes more sense to buy the feedstock for the refineries on the spot market. Developing alt.energy techs would contribute to retaining their in-the-ground reserves for recovery and refining at some later date, when the price of oil rises (peak oil vs. growing usage by China and India) and refinery margins narrow (if they narrow, that is; I think I read recently that that is what happens). The lifting costs and transport costs are relatively static, so saving reserves for the future would preserve overall profit margins.

Think also about the PR advantages to developing alt. energies. The first company that comes to market with, say, a really economical way to turn switchgrass or rice hulls (Texas) into biodiesel could really garner some goodwill (as well as market share).
Goodwill ---> brand loyalty ---> increased profits.

That's my take on the notion, anyway.




Hillwilliam -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 9:44:32 PM)

ty HK




popeye1250 -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 10:07:46 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

So when will the cons get their lies straight?

It`s either the CO2 rise is natural and that in fact the earth`s temp is going up, naturally.

Or there`s no temp. rise at all and no climate change,at all.

Can`t have both lies,............they conflict.


We know the CO2 is coming from burning carbon (based fuels) that were formed and locked up as carbon, over millions of years, for millions of years.

It`s being released into the air in a relatively short time compared to the eons it took to render the carbon from CO2 form to plant form, then to oil, coal and gas.



Slowly,over hundreds of millions of years,the huge amounts jungle and plant life through their natural life processes,took carbon dioxide OUT of the earth`s atmosphere and rendered from a gas form to a solid form.



Then,in about 300 hundred years or so,we`ve reintroduced back into the atmosphere ,an amount of CO2 that took plant-life millions and millions and millions of years to take out.



This makes sense to even lay people.




Owner, the cons don't have to do any of that!
They can just lie, obfuscate, change the subject, deny, deny, deny, fudge the figures to make them fit their viewpoint, or ask questions that don't have any real answers, just like the lefties do!




SilverBoat -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 10:18:22 PM)

Hk ...

... The 'oil' companies aren't really just oil companies nowadays. They're nested layers of dozens, if not hundreds of financial holding companies. Their US and Euro execs realize that they can't stop China (or anybody in Asia, and not so long from now Africa) from violating patent claims. On the converse, that leaves Chinese tech open to pirating as well.

The current numbers on energy use and capture are relatively straightforward: a hundred-mile square of solar-panels could power the US. (That's about the size of Delaware, but it'd need to be in Arizona. Obviously, it'd be better to spread that around distributed network multiple source-n-sink style than wire everything to one plant (as is done now). And the concerns about storage, storms, etc are considerable, but not impossible.

What concerns the major energy companies, though, is down-scaling. When solar panel and battery tech reaches the point that individuals can unroll a few yards of plastic film, spray a few coats of special paints onto a handy surface, seed a shallow pond with genemod algae, or whatever, and that produces enough energy per rooftop to power a house for a couple of days, the $Trn or so invested in big generator plants goes underwater, archeocarbon demand declines, etc.

That's going to happen anyway, or something even more efficient and compact, within a couple of decades at most, so what the banks and enerco execs want is to keep carving profits off solid, liquid and gas fuels for as long as they can. Cheap solar power will force oil/gas prices lower, so expensive oil reservoirs won't get produced. Getting transport wedged into ethanol will delay that, and they can get some control on distribution, but the only leverage that can get on small-scale direct solar-to-electric conversion will be selling the converters.

Anyway, you're correct about them not really buying up and hiding patents, they're buying whole companies, to delay and leverage the tech in patents those companies developed.




tweakabelle -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 10:46:24 PM)

sorry ppl double post.




FrostedFlake -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/3/2012 11:42:03 PM)

World Meteorological organization.

2011: world’s 10th warmest year, warmest year with La Niña on record, second-lowest Arctic sea ice extent

http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/gcs_2011_en.html

Time.

Climate Science

The Science Is Dire on Carbon Emissions. The Politics Are Worse

http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/12/05/the-science-is-bad-on-carbon-emissions-the-politics-are-worse/

Nature.

At least three-quarters of climate change is man-made

http://www.nature.com/news/at-least-three-quarters-of-climate-change-is-man-made-1.9538

Everyone is entitled to an opinion. No one is entitled to shout FIRE! in a crowded Theater. Unless there be fire, and then, no one is entitled to say there is no fire. We are past the point where reasonable people differ about this. The only people still arguing against emergency action are unreasonable.

[image]local://upfiles/769649/1A98E34F255345A0A4CD2BFEC85871C0.jpg[/image]

History of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January, 2009. NOAA.http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bbgUE04Y-Xg




Politesub53 -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/4/2012 4:12:09 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterSlaveLA

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53



Using quotes out of context, by leaving bits out, distorts the truth of someones words. This is what Phil Jones actually said...

"There’s a continual updating of the dataset. Keeping track of everything is difficult. Some countries will do lots of checking on their data then issue improved data, so it can be very difficult. We have improved but we have to improve more."

He also agreed that there had been two periods which experienced similar warming, from 1910 to 1940 and from 1975 to 1998, but said these could be explained by natural phenomena whereas more recent warming could not

He further admitted that in the last 15 years there had been no ‘statistically significant’ warming, although he argued this was a blip rather than the long-term trend.


Thus, he can't explain it. [8|]





Thus nothing, yet again you are cherry picking parts of his actual remarks. That makes your argument distorted at best and a lie at worst.

"Professor Jones criticised those who complained he had not shared his data with them, saying they could always collate their own from publicly available material in the US. And he said the climate had not cooled ‘until recently – and then barely at all. The trend is a warming trend’."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-global-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html#ixzz1iUUCGoIm




vincentML -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/4/2012 9:02:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterSlaveLA

 
Actually, it does: "...the rise in atmospheric carbon LAGGED the temperature rise" -- even you should know that.



That is called CORRELATION. Do you know the difference between correlation and causality? It doesn't look like it.


Will, here is another issue. Have another look at the graph

Reading from right to left notice what happens at the peak of the interglacial period 130,000 years out, give or take a few. AFTER the temperature falls quickly the CO2 remains steadily high in the atmosphere for about 15,000 years. So, glaciation occurs while the CO2 remains high. How could that happen if the CO2 provided a greenhouse effect? What caused the glaciation? Maybe CO2 doesn't cause all that much of a greenhouse? Maybe there is another factor at play.




MasterSlaveLA -> RE: Climate change denial: Epic fail? (1/4/2012 10:00:49 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53


Current trend has shown COOLING, and your beloved Jones CAN'T EVEN EXPLAIN why warming even occurred during a period. But, by all means, don't let THE FACTS interfere with your politics. [8|]





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