RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned?

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xssve -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/15/2012 8:05:11 AM)
It's the Player Piano thing- no, theoretically, automation does away with repetitive, soul deadening tasks, that machines can perform without getting bored into insensibility, leaving people to do more creative and rewarding work, like designing automation. The real problems with mass production and automation are insensitivity, i.e. the automation people complain about the most is customer service, voice mail, etc., which can be positively maddening, machines are not yet context sensitive, and second, creativity, which machines are, by definition, not - a thing may be able to be mass produced, after which marketing takes over, but it still takes a person to dream up and design the thing, someone to design the machine to make it, etc. again, Kurt Vennegut Jr. explored some of these issues in the book Player Piano, which every freshman used to read. If you follow the automation trend to it's logical conclusion, you get a lot of mass produced goods and no one to buy them, but the sensitivity and creativity issues, while they may appear to go away, never really do - we talked about that in the organic farming thread, there are qualitative differences between mass produced and handmade goods that affect the value of the respective goods, almost anything can be improved (value added), and that's where creativity comes in. The conundrum here is that unless the industry is competitive, the value added thing won't happen - Detroit made the same car for 20 years until they were forced to innovate by Japanese and international competition - protectionism is not the way to go, without competition in the marketplace there is no reason to innovate.

fucktoyprincess -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/15/2012 8:30:45 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: erieangel Workers are treated poorly in this country. Just look at some of our largest companies and how the workers are treated. Then don't support the companies who treat their workers poorly. My point is that each of us as a consumer has a responsibility for our own actions. If we bellyache about certain things, but only expect solutions to come from corporations or government, we will be waiting a long time. Consumers can also vote with their dollars. If one personally doesn't like the way that someone practices business in the U.S., then one doesn't have to purchase things from them. I don't buy things from Wal-Mart either. And it's my personal choice to do so. But if you don't want to change your consumption patterns, that's fine. It is your choice. We are each free to do what we feel comfortable doing. All I know is that I will NOT buy clothing that is labeled made in China.

fucktoyprincess -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/15/2012 8:41:05 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Fellow People do not need jobs. Technology potentially frees us from certain labor. The only question is the structure of the society that has not changed in harmony with fundamental technological advances. Most perhaps agree, some aspects of today's order are totally idiotic. For example necessary over-consumption to keep economies going. Many products are intentionally made to break down after short period of use, fashion industry absurdities and so on.... The biggest problem is the distribution of resources. There have been some ideas how to solve it, but the political structure does not allow fundamental changes. (The last is very obvious this election year.) For example, the idea of national dividend comes in mind. Yes, fundamentally the notion that people do not need jobs is correct, but as you correctly point out the follow-on issue is the distribution of resources. But the devil is in the details. In any country in the world, you cannot get people to agree on how resources will be divided. We in the U.S. cannot even agree on an approach to healthcare. So I am not optimistic about people's ability to find an equitable solution to the distribution issue. The fact that any child goes hungry in the U.S. is a sad statement about how we are not able to redistribute the resources that we currently have, let alone in the future as jobs continue to shrink. My fear is that the current gap between haves and have-nots will simply increase. There will not be redistribution until it is too late - i.e., until the have nots finally rise up. And then, we will simply have war. I would honestly like to think that human beings are smart enough to avoid that kind of outcome, but history continually proves me wrong. Human beings are not very good at learning from the past. The redistribution policies established during the Great Depression have not fared well. After the Great Depression was over, American politicians have spent countless hours and money trying to dismantle much of the redistributive policies established in the New Deal era. The fact of the matter is, Americans are loathe to redistribute. So we are caught in a bind. If we believe everyone must work to support themselves then we must provide jobs OR if we feel jobs will slowly disappear then we must commit ourselves to redistribution. But to have it both ways - shrinking jobs AND no redistribution. This is a recipe for global disaster. And I don't feel that I am exaggerating in the least. A man who cannot afford to feed his children will eventually decide he is not going to take it anymore. This is a reality.

Fellow -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/15/2012 11:40:08 AM)
This is basically what I said as well. We are stuck with the system, it does not reform itself. Soviet Union tried more or less equal redistribution, but they decided everyone needs a job. It led to a degeneration and very low productivity. The current US government is actively involved in redistribution: food stamp program grows exponentially, the rich get free money to play with. The government debt grows in proportion. We know where it leads to. Introduction of totally new economic system is in practice impossible because the interests collide, and we live in a global situation not in isolation. Until the job market improves substantially and peoples real wages increase there can be no bright future. It requires decisive action from the government. The last is very unlikely and... we are in a closed downward spiral. At some point the financial system will collapse and then something can happen. Lot of debt (and wealth) will vanish. Perhaps it will lead (after major disturbances) to a new growth and more fair system.

Real0ne -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/15/2012 11:52:29 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TheHeretic If it wasn't for the ATM, our President likes to remind us, a lot more people would have jobs at the bank counters. If it wasn't for the robots, a lot more ex-autoworkers would still be autoworkers. I don't know how widely they have spread, but here in California, automated checkout at the grocery store is the new express lane. How many jobs might those wind up killing? Should these things be banned, or, at least in these difficult times, should there be a moratorium on new ways to replace human labor with technology? are you kidding me? human labor can and should be completely replaced by technology and we should have the golden opportunity to pursue interests of pleasure instead of necessity.

xssve -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 6:24:10 AM)
It isn't just automation, it;s the combination of automation and the Fed using monetarist policy to control inflation by distorting the labor market, which means that jobs lost to automation are replaced more slowly. How this works is that small business is caught between a rock and a hard place, increased competition from corporations that enjoy economies of scale on one side, and a more difficult time raising investment capital on the other, since banks only tend to lend on a sure thing, and corporations have more options when it comes to raising cash. That's why you get "too big to fail", it's not that these companies are indispensable, its that all their smaller competitors have been driven out or absorbed, and small business, not (Schedule C) corporations traditionally account for the bulk of job creation, corporations by definition almost, are all about increasing production while reducing variable costs, including, of course, labor. The money they would be paying labor can then go to stock dividends, management bonus's, advertising and lobbying, that make the small business environment even more hostile, the result is the jobless recoveries that have characterized the last Three major recessions, with each jobless period growing increasingly prolonged. That's why we have a Two tiered economy, and as corporations get a larger share of the wealth, the more they spend on lobbying to make sure it stays that way. It's nothing new, it's why Lincoln and Eisenhower both warned us about the dangers of corporate influence peddling.

Musicmystery -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 6:41:34 AM)
quote: and the Fed using monetarist policy to control inflation by distorting the labor market, which means that jobs lost to automation are replaced more slowly. Nothing in your post discusses this assertion...it's all a litany against automation. Large vs. small is older than automation...large corporations go back centuries, just without the infrastructure we have today. Wealth and power has always attracted more options, and will always, obviously. No legislation will ever erase that advantage, because it can't.

xssve -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 7:12:33 AM)
Doesnt' have to ease it, just doesn't have to enable it - every time the the Fed raises the interest rate, it throws thousands of people out of work - deliberately - in order to head off demand pull inflation - it means that there are more people competing for fewer jobs, and wages will fall or remain stagnant. Reagan didn't end the inflationary spiral, Paul Volker did by cutting off the money supply, it worked, and it's a useful tool for handling runaway inflation, but it's employed as a fine tuning mechanism against inflation at the expense of wage and job growth, plain and simple, talking about the evils of automation is a red herring: more automation is what small businesses need to compete, there is no reason that any small business cannot use the same computerized inventory management and accounting systems that Wal Mart uses to make them more competitive, other than the stranglehold on enterprise software by MS, etc., that puts that software out of reach for most small businesses, it amounts to a barrier to entry.

Kaliko -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 7:30:37 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TheHeretic Should these things be banned, or, at least in these difficult times, should there be a moratorium on new ways to replace human labor with technology? No. Personally, I hate new technology. I can recognize my own dependence on it even as I sit here and type this and I am disgruntled. But not enough to stop using it. But to expect innovation to halt is unrealistic. As others have mentioned, there are so many things that have in the past replaced human labor. We're not so special a people that all of sudden it now has to stop. We're just rolling along with it just like everyone before us did, and we will adapt. Or, we will go hide in a cave. Which is actually my preference.

NeedToUseYou -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 10:05:53 AM)
Man some people aren't going to be happy at all in the next couple decades. I've finally got around to putting my 3d printer together, I ordered it from makerbot.com It's as plain as the first time I logged onto the internet, the home based manufacturing and design is the next BIG thing. Right now it is not the best resolution, but there are several different paths being pursued and most importantly you can right now buy one for a couple thousand bucks think of a design and print it up (with some restrictions). I've made a camera mount, some models, light holder, broom holders, already, and they work perfectly fine. I'm printing something right now as a type. So, all that low end chinese junk people complain about us importing, well a good portion of that junk is about not to be made by any factory at all. Sure, it'll take about as long as it took to go from AOL pay by the minute internet to today, but there is something about gaining a new "Ability" that I can't see giving back, and as the software gets better (alot of room for improvement here, namely workflow), and the machines faster and more precise, the concept of buying an Ipad case from the store will seem funny, or a comb, or a 1000 different low end items we buy from time to time. So, if you turn the tv volume down and listen real hard you might be able to hear the first factory shutting down an hour early for the night because well people just don't need to buy that piece of plastic from them anymore. The good news is, that there will definitely be a soaring demand for customized products like you never imagined before. So, the future is 3d design, I'm learning now. I can't wait for the future in this area.

Hippiekinkster -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 10:24:26 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: barelynangel The legal field is luckily while hit by the recession, it was not near as hard as many other fields and the field is much bigger and more diverse in areas. angel That's because the vultures turned to trying to suck the blood out of people who got fucked by losing their jobs, piled up medical debts, bought food and meds with credit cards after they lost their houses and their IRAs, etc.; buying debts for pennies on the dollar from doctors who charge so fucking much that they get rich even when they only get the copays and the insurance reimbursements. Slimier than salted garden slugs.

Hippiekinkster -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 10:37:42 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Kaliko quote: ORIGINAL: TheHeretic Should these things be banned, or, at least in these difficult times, should there be a moratorium on new ways to replace human labor with technology? No. Personally, I hate new technology. I can recognize my own dependence on it even as I sit here and type this and I am disgruntled. But not enough to stop using it. But to expect innovation to halt is unrealistic. As others have mentioned, there are so many things that have in the past replaced human labor. We're not so special a people that all of sudden it now has to stop. We're just rolling along with it just like everyone before us did, and we will adapt. Or, we will go hide in a cave. Which is actually my preference. I'm good with a cave as long as I have Netflix, a comfortable couch, some nice thick comforters, and a fire pit.

NeedToUseYou -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 10:41:00 AM)
Oh and for those that think that the cashierless checkout has gone away forever, it hasn't. Wal-Mart, and others are pursuing RFID technology pretty aggressively, I saw a woman in our local walmart scanning all the inventory in the underwear section just by waving her little device through the air, it made little clicks like a Geiger counter every time it communicated with another package of socks. She didn't scan each one, she just had to get with a couple feet and started clicking like crazy. So, at first Wal-mart inventory management will improve, and in the Wal-mart world that means less employs counting inventory, however, the same rfid can also help with the automated checkout to, so you couple the UPC scan, with the RFID, and you have round two of the no cashier marketplace, oh and that coupled with face recognition technology and movement technology, and you have the near employeeless wal-mart of the future. Just search youtube for "predator" facial recoginition, and there are some videos on automated tracking suspicious movements if you search, and RFID is pretty commonly understood by now. Anyway, retail definitely won't be employing as many people in the future.

Musicmystery -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 11:05:39 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: xssve Doesnt' have to ease it, just doesn't have to enable it - every time the the Fed raises the interest rate, it throws thousands of people out of work - deliberately - in order to head off demand pull inflation - it means that there are more people competing for fewer jobs, and wages will fall or remain stagnant. Reagan didn't end the inflationary spiral, Paul Volker did by cutting off the money supply, it worked, and it's a useful tool for handling runaway inflation, but it's employed as a fine tuning mechanism against inflation at the expense of wage and job growth, plain and simple, talking about the evils of automation is a red herring: more automation is what small businesses need to compete, there is no reason that any small business cannot use the same computerized inventory management and accounting systems that Wal Mart uses to make them more competitive, other than the stranglehold on enterprise software by MS, etc., that puts that software out of reach for most small businesses, it amounts to a barrier to entry. OK, I see where you're going with the Fed and labor market, but while point taken, it's not "pure and simple." You're 45, and haven't seen stagflation. Wages aren't helpful when inflation devalues them at double digit rates. And inflation isn't like locusts...it doesn't just happen by itself; the conditions that caused it need counteracting. The Fed does with monetary policy quickly what Congress may or not do slowly with fiscal policy. More jobs at devalued wages creates exactly that two-tiered economy you mentioned earlier. In fact, this experience is what taught me that to be financially secure, I needed to move from laborer to capitalist, and gradually, I did. I agree that any small business can use the same computer automation; I disagree that they are shut out. They both can and do. I can rattle off a long list of area businesses using technology to run successful business that formerly would have sunk under labor costs. Bad for labor? Those same laborers can start a successful business more easily than every before. My seniors do exactly that--design and propose a viable new business, and some of them have used their own proposals in real life, while the rest impressed the hell out of employers and got jobs right out of school.

MasterCord -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 11:16:24 AM)
We see it now in the industry my engineering firm serves. We now 3-D model everything....even complex shapes and structure, piping systems, electrical runs....no more 2-D drawings of any kind. What 2-D drawings we do need to create come from the same program that generates the 3-D model, except the program lays them out and prints them. When our changeover is complete in my firm by the end of 2012, I'll be able to do the work of 12 people with 4. That is a hard saving to ignore - but even if I wanted to I could not because as long as my competitors do it (...they are...) I have to. Everywhere you look technology is cutting back the need for people. Railroads now can switch yards and terminals with a single crew member using a command pack they carry and a remote controlled locomotive. It used to take a minimum of three. Ship crews are down to 8 to 10 from 28 to 40. There are subways operating today with no operator runing the train. Banning technology is not the answer.....birth control is. MC quote: ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou Man some people aren't going to be happy at all in the next couple decades. I've finally got around to putting my 3d printer together, I ordered it from makerbot.com It's as plain as the first time I logged onto the internet, the home based manufacturing and design is the next BIG thing. Right now it is not the best resolution, but there are several different paths being pursued and most importantly you can right now buy one for a couple thousand bucks think of a design and print it up (with some restrictions). I've made a camera mount, some models, light holder, broom holders, already, and they work perfectly fine. I'm printing something right now as a type. So, all that low end chinese junk people complain about us importing, well a good portion of that junk is about not to be made by any factory at all. Sure, it'll take about as long as it took to go from AOL pay by the minute internet to today, but there is something about gaining a new "Ability" that I can't see giving back, and as the software gets better (alot of room for improvement here, namely workflow), and the machines faster and more precise, the concept of buying an Ipad case from the store will seem funny, or a comb, or a 1000 different low end items we buy from time to time. So, if you turn the tv volume down and listen real hard you might be able to hear the first factory shutting down an hour early for the night because well people just don't need to buy that piece of plastic from them anymore. The good news is, that there will definitely be a soaring demand for customized products like you never imagined before. So, the future is 3d design, I'm learning now. I can't wait for the future in this area.

Musicmystery -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 11:19:39 AM)
ON the other hand, soaring production raises all kinds of new possibilities...including lowering the barriers to business entry.

NeedToUseYou -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 12:05:01 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Musicmystery ON the other hand, soaring production raises all kinds of new possibilities...including lowering the barriers to business entry. That's it right there. For Example, I have a camera, however, there is no real mount for that camera that can mount all the locations I'd like to mount it, like in my jeep, on my makerbot, on my body, etc.... I'm starting a youtube channel so I'm recording a lot of stuff. So, in that example, with this camera, there is no place to even buy all the things I want, without my printer I'd either have to rig something out of pvc pipe, and duct tape, or do without, with this I can do it much better, and I can create as many as I want, or I could send anyone the file that has a printer, and now they can make one of their own, and that is where the "economy" of the future lies. Since, I already made a customized camera mount for that specific camera model, that you own, you'd simply pay like a 1.00 or whatever, for the rights to print a copy, and that will be a large chunk of the future economy, IMO. Essentially itunes for printable objects.

Musicmystery -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 12:07:20 PM)
Exactly. We have opportunity like never before, but it will take thinking differently about work, markets, and the economy.

Lucylastic -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 12:36:40 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou quote: ORIGINAL: Musicmystery ON the other hand, soaring production raises all kinds of new possibilities...including lowering the barriers to business entry. That's it right there. For Example, I have a camera, however, there is no real mount for that camera that can mount all the locations I'd like to mount it, like in my jeep, on my makerbot, on my body, etc.... I'm starting a youtube channel so I'm recording a lot of stuff. So, in that example, with this camera, there is no place to even buy all the things I want, without my printer I'd either have to rig something out of pvc pipe, and duct tape, or do without, with this I can do it much better, and I can create as many as I want, or I could send anyone the file that has a printer, and now they can make one of their own, and that is where the "economy" of the future lies. Since, I already made a customized camera mount for that specific camera model, that you own, you'd simply pay like a 1.00 or whatever, for the rights to print a copy, and that will be a large chunk of the future economy, IMO. Essentially itunes for printable objects. quote: makerbot you went and piqued my interest[:D][:D] damn your eyes!!!t... like I need a new drug!!! where was that again makerbot.com???[:D][:D][:D]

NeedToUseYou -> RE: Should "job killing" technologies be banned? (1/16/2012 12:51:03 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lucylastic quote: ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou quote: ORIGINAL: Musicmystery ON the other hand, soaring production raises all kinds of new possibilities...including lowering the barriers to business entry. That's it right there. For Example, I have a camera, however, there is no real mount for that camera that can mount all the locations I'd like to mount it, like in my jeep, on my makerbot, on my body, etc.... I'm starting a youtube channel so I'm recording a lot of stuff. So, in that example, with this camera, there is no place to even buy all the things I want, without my printer I'd either have to rig something out of pvc pipe, and duct tape, or do without, with this I can do it much better, and I can create as many as I want, or I could send anyone the file that has a printer, and now they can make one of their own, and that is where the "economy" of the future lies. Since, I already made a customized camera mount for that specific camera model, that you own, you'd simply pay like a 1.00 or whatever, for the rights to print a copy, and that will be a large chunk of the future economy, IMO. Essentially itunes for printable objects. quote: makerbot you went and piqued my interest[:D][:D] damn your eyes!!!t... like I need a new drug!!! where was that again makerbot.com???[:D][:D][:D] You can also go to thingiverse.com to see what others have submitted for designs you can download, it's not to impressive right now, but there are some useful things up there. Yeah, makerbot, but there is also the ultimaker, and the reprap, and some others I can't remember the name of. I don't own the company or make any money off them by the way, I just want more people getting 3d printers, so I can sell them crap... HEHE.

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