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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 9:35:29 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
Is there replicable experimental evidence to support the cause and effect? Or just observation? I have provided observation of apparent anomoly that suggests there is no cause and effect: i.e. glaciation while high levels of CO2 remained. So, what we have here is theory and anomoly that disputes the theoretical construct. Seriously, Ken, science is not democratic. It is not done by a vote in a political institution. "Settled science" is not a scientific statement. It is a political statement. Good science welcomes divergent views and does not condemn the sceptics personally. Neils Bohr debated vigorously for years against Albert Einstein's scepticism over quantum mechanics. Although Bohr won out and the Copenhagen interpretation of QM became dominant, there arose two alternative interpretations [hidden variables and multiverse] through which some physicists view the same events. However, while debate goes on, one group does not try to silence the other or denigrate them personally. When science fails to tolerate opposing views it fails to be science; it becomes politics. In this case the proposed political remedies, the Kyoto Protocol, could imho lead to disaster for the world's growing population. So, again in answer to tweke's comments: we do not need to question motives in order to be sceptical of the science of the AGW theory.

You cannot make claims about a past climate change if you don't understand what caused that change and no one has anything approaching a valid theory of what caused the previous glaciation cycles. Antartctica moving over the South Pole certainly contributes but beyond that we simply have no data.

The present warming is occuring and was preceded by a masive increase in CO2 levels from a sourco sequestered from the biosphere for at least 300 million years. No other changes have occured that could be causing this sort of drastic rise in global temperatures.

The denialists spent years claiming there was no warming but the data is now unavoidable so they've switched to claiming we don't know the caue or that it won't continue. Why should anyone believe the denialists, with their obvious political and economic motives, after how spectacularly wrong they have been up to this point?

As to restricting GHG emmissions that would lead, as it already has, to clean energy innovations and the growth of new high tech industries. US politicians beholden to th traditional energy companies have almost guaranteed that the US will lag far behind the innovators in these new emergent indistries. So when we do finally come to our senses and stop burning fossil fuels for power we may very well exchange OPEC for Germany and China as the nations who hold our energy production capacities ransom. Our descendants, if there are any, may very well curse us as they ship their money overseas.

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 9:43:17 AM   
Zonie63


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GotSteel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zonie63
Leftists don't have much room to talk either, since the Communist Bloc countries were pretty atrocious when it came to environmental policy.


I don't think it's valid to blame liberals and socialists for the actions of a communist dictatorship.



I'm not really blaming them (nor do I consider liberals to be "leftists" in the strictest sense). I'm just saying that there's nothing inherent about their position that automatically puts them on the moral high ground that they can say that it's all the Republicans' fault. I think there's enough to blame to go around on all sides.

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 12:30:18 PM   
Kirata


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

bullshit.

The increase in CO2 predates the warming.

You should have put a colon after "bullshit."

The rise in atmospheric CO2 over the past 100 years has occurred mostly in the last 40-45 years. Nothing surprising there, of course. But most of the rise in temperature during that 100-year period occurred in the first 40-45 years.





By contrast, here's a typical "gee whiz" graph that conveniently displays only the last 50 years in order to support the claim that CO2 "forces" temperature:


Don't quit your day job.

K.



< Message edited by Kirata -- 2/3/2012 12:42:44 PM >

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 12:38:37 PM   
Hillwilliam


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You have some good points Kirata. Do you also reject the denialist's claim that is only based on the last 12 years?

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 12:45:32 PM   
Kirata


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Do you also reject the denialist's claim that is only based on the last 12 years?

Huh?

K.

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 12:55:01 PM   
Hillwilliam


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Do you also reject the denialist's claim that is only based on the last 12 years?

Huh?

K.


Several people ahve posted on here recently claiming that the whole warming thing (much less AGW) is total balderdash based on the fact that the last 12 years have shown no significant warming this was on a similar thread within the alst week if you wish, I can look for it. My counterclaim is that 12 years does not climate make. You have to get out there in the 50-200 year range (which is where you're coming from as well) before you can begin to claim "Climate change"

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Profile   Post #: 86
RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 1:07:28 PM   
Hillwilliam


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Here's the graph I was talking about.

My problems are 1. It's only 12 years and 2. If you were to integrate the curve, there is a lot more area above the so-called mean than below so the line doesn't even give the trend correctly.




Attachment (1)

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Profile   Post #: 87
RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 1:28:37 PM   
Kirata


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Several people ahve posted on here recently claiming that the whole warming thing (much less AGW) is total balderdash based on the fact that the last 12 years have shown no significant warming...

Oh, okay. I got stuck because the link in the OP references the last 15 years, not 12, so I lost you there. And, too, I have a quibble with branding people "deniers" in the first place. It's like the charge of "denying" Christ: It carries an implicit assumption of the truth claim of what is being denied. The opposite occurs when people are branded "believers" because their views happen to accord with the majority position on global warming. A plague on both their houses. I don't have much use for priests running around sorting out the saved from the heathen.

As for whether or not I think the last 15 years of data disproves that the Earth is warming, nah. But on the other hand, it ain't just a chilly two weeks. If it tones down the hysteria over runaway global warming and children growing up without knowing what snow is, I count it a plus.

K.


< Message edited by Kirata -- 2/3/2012 1:32:44 PM >

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 1:44:50 PM   
GotSteel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zonie63
I'm just saying that there's nothing inherent about their position that automatically puts them on the moral high ground that they can say that it's all the Republicans' fault. I think there's enough to blame to go around on all sides.

Certainly being on the left end of the democrat spectrum doesn't require one to be environmentally conscious and being a republican doesn't require one to be environmentally unconscious but wouldn't you agree that there's a correlation?

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Profile   Post #: 89
RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 1:50:01 PM   
Kirata


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GotSteel

Certainly being on the left end of the democrat spectrum doesn't require one to be environmentally conscious and being a republican doesn't require one to be environmentally unconscious but wouldn't you agree that there's a correlation?

Wouldn't you agree that forming your query by characterizing one group as "conscious" and the other as "unconscious" builds a value judgment into the question which the reader must accept in order to answer it as asked?

K.



< Message edited by Kirata -- 2/3/2012 1:52:19 PM >

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 2:56:23 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

bullshit.

The increase in CO2 predates the warming.

You should have put a colon after "bullshit."

The rise in atmospheric CO2 over the past 100 years has occurred mostly in the last 40-45 years. Nothing surprising there, of course. But most of the rise in temperature during that 100-year period occurred in the first 40-45 years.

CO2 started rising in the early 19th century. You have fallen for or are intentionally using a denialist claim.

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 3:57:23 PM   
webcamchastity


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


And now on "Settled Science," the latest climate news!
    Hotter summers 'may kill 5,900 every year', warns first national risk assessment of climate change

    Britain’s first national risk assessment of climate change has warned there will be major increases in flooding, heatwaves and water shortages that could kill thousands of people a year. The Government-funded research called said annual flood damage will cost the UK up to £12 billion by the 2080s if nothing is done to adapt to extreme weather.

    British summers will get hotter while winters will be milder and wetter, according to the £2.8 million report. It warned the hotter summers could result in up to 5,900 extra deaths a year by 2050.... However, authors admit to uncertainties within their computer models
In other climate news...
    Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about

    The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years. The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

    Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.

    Meanwhile, leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.
Tune in next week for more "Settled Science."

K.




It would seem from your quotes and your own writing that you are sceptical of global warming. Why have you used 2 badly flawed studies to not make a point?
The first one ends with the admission of uncertainties, well no shit sherlock, anyone claiming to have the whole thing nailed is an idiot.
The second one claims that "leading scientists" have been talking to the daily mail.
You don't live over here so I will give you the benefit of the doubt re lack of knowledge about the daily mail. Leading scientists do not and would never go to the daily mail to explain their complicated,expensive and exhaustive studies. It would be like spending years writing a thesis and publishing it in Viz.
Conclusion, could do better, but that's not really a bombshell either is it?

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 4:23:00 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
You cannot make claims about a past climate change if you don't understand what caused that change and no one has anything approaching a valid theory of what caused the previous glaciation cycles. Antartctica moving over the South Pole certainly contributes but beyond that we simply have no data.


Ken, the evidence is quite clear in any graph of the Vostok ice core. At best CO2 rise is correlated with temperature rise; it does not precede temperature. Secondly, at 135,000 years glaciaton occurs while CO2 levels remain extremely high for about 15,000 years. Clearly an anomaly to the AGW theory. Who am I to believe? You or my lyin' eyes? Have a look at the freakin graphs.

quote:

The present warming is occuring and was preceded by a masive increase in CO2 levels from a sourco sequestered from the biosphere for at least 300 million years. No other changes have occured that could be causing this sort of drastic rise in global temperatures.


Huh? WTF? You invented that, right?

quote:

The denialists spent years claiming there was no warming but the data is now unavoidable so they've switched to claiming we don't know the caue or that it won't continue. Why should anyone believe the denialists, with their obvious political and economic motives, after how spectacularly wrong they have been up to this point?


Ah, there you go again: ascribing motives and name calling with derrogatory labels sceptical scientists. Can't convince you that scepticism in science is healthy and essential, hey? "Settled Science" is an oxymoron!

quote:

As to restricting GHG emmissions that would lead, as it already has, to clean energy innovations and the growth of new high tech industries. US politicians beholden to th traditional energy companies have almost guaranteed that the US will lag far behind the innovators in these new emergent indistries. So when we do finally come to our senses and stop burning fossil fuels for power we may very well exchange OPEC for Germany and China as the nations who hold our energy production capacities ransom. Our descendants, if there are any, may very well curse us as they ship their money overseas.


*sighs* The AGW equivalent of the WMD warnings that lead us into war with Iraq.

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Profile   Post #: 93
RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 4:58:57 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
You cannot make claims about a past climate change if you don't understand what caused that change and no one has anything approaching a valid theory of what caused the previous glaciation cycles. Antartctica moving over the South Pole certainly contributes but beyond that we simply have no data.


Ken, the evidence is quite clear in any graph of the Vostok ice core. At best CO2 rise is correlated with temperature rise; it does not precede temperature. Secondly, at 135,000 years glaciaton occurs while CO2 levels remain extremely high for about 15,000 years. Clearly an anomaly to the AGW theory. Who am I to believe? You or my lyin' eyes? Have a look at the freakin graphs.

Just because that happened that time doesn't mean it always happens that way. As a matter of fact we know for a fact that this time the CO2 rise preceeded the warming.

quote:

quote:

The present warming is occuring and was preceded by a masive increase in CO2 levels from a sourco sequestered from the biosphere for at least 300 million years. No other changes have occured that could be causing this sort of drastic rise in global temperatures.


Huh? WTF? You invented that, right?

You're denying that fossil fuels are in excess of 300 million years old?

quote:

quote:

The denialists spent years claiming there was no warming but the data is now unavoidable so they've switched to claiming we don't know the caue or that it won't continue. Why should anyone believe the denialists, with their obvious political and economic motives, after how spectacularly wrong they have been up to this point?


Ah, there you go again: ascribing motives and name calling with derrogatory labels sceptical scientists. Can't convince you that scepticism in science is healthy and essential, hey? "Settled Science" is an oxymoron!

Where did I ever write settled science? Skeptics who are always wrong aren't skeptics. The fact that denialists all have connections to the old energy industries is simple fact and just as relevant as pointing out that the people who claimed tobacco did not cause cancer were in the employ of the tobacco industry.

quote:

quote:

As to restricting GHG emmissions that would lead, as it already has, to clean energy innovations and the growth of new high tech industries. US politicians beholden to th traditional energy companies have almost guaranteed that the US will lag far behind the innovators in these new emergent indistries. So when we do finally come to our senses and stop burning fossil fuels for power we may very well exchange OPEC for Germany and China as the nations who hold our energy production capacities ransom. Our descendants, if there are any, may very well curse us as they ship their money overseas.


*sighs* The AGW equivalent of the WMD warnings that lead us into war with Iraq.

So no response besides hand waves?


< Message edited by DomKen -- 2/3/2012 4:59:17 PM >

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 5:58:48 PM   
thishereboi


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Raiikun


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59


So why was it 50 degrees here yesterday when it`s usually below zero from December through mid February?


Not that you`re a scientist or anything.



Well as some of us were constantly reminded last winter about this time when my area was having record low temperatures quite regularly, "weather is not climate." =)


Funny how the answer changes depending on which position it supports.


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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 6:07:03 PM   
PeonForHer


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata

If it tones down the hysteria over runaway global warming and children growing up without knowing what snow is, I count it a plus.



Hell's bells, Kirata.  Any 'hysteria' there is about climate change in the world is no match whatever for the forces of complacency currently set against it.  Regarding this issue, perhaps more than any other, ever, it's a mistake to confuse 'solid, sceptical common sense' with complacency.   

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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 6:09:46 PM   
thishereboi


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quote:

Yada yada yada, more nonsense blaming the left for anything you dont like.
Well he is consistent if nothing else.

Do you have any facts to back up this bullshit or not ? My guess would be not, given I am right leaning and worried about mans effect on the earth.
I am on the right also and I was worrying about the effect long before the global warming folks started up. Of course I was a liberal back then so I am not sure if it counts.


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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 6:22:42 PM   
DaddySatyr


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I have never put much stock in the whole global warming thing (although I am glad that Vice President Gore has found something with which to keep busy, after politics).

I started hearing about some of this in the late 80s-early 90s (after Mrs. Gore lost her gig with the PMRC) and I started paying attention to one simple thing; every December 31, weather people on newscasts give the yearly averages. Yeah, they could be lying to me but, I doubt it. According to them, the yearly average temperature over the past 25 years (or so) is trending down . Is that the case, everywhere? Probably not.

I will admit something that will make some of you label me as "out there" but, I am not so sure that the "hole in the ozone" isn't an "escape valve" by design, put there to give all the pollutants and crap in our air some way to get out of our atmosphere.

I've heard all the "it's new" arguments. I think it's as new as our ability to find it. Just because we didn't have the technology, before doesn't mean it wasn't always there. This may truly be a case of "post hoc ergo propter hoc" ("It happened after it therefore, it was caused by it").

Anyway, that's my two cents.



Peace and comfort,



Michael





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by DaddySatyr -- 2/3/2012 6:31:14 PM >


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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 6:25:34 PM   
thishereboi


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quote:

I thought this article explained it rather well.


It was interesting, but left out any reference to natural co2 in the environment.


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RE: Settled Science - 2/3/2012 6:54:03 PM   
PeonForHer


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DaddySatyr

I will admit something that will make some of you label me as "out there" but, I am not so sure that the "hole in the ozone" isn't an "escape valve" by design, put there to give all the pollutants and crap in our air some way to get out of our atmosphere.


How would all this crap escape gravitational pull? 

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