NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (Full Version)

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kalikshama -> NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 1:15:21 PM)

It's the legislative equivalent of plugging your ears, closing your eyes, and screaming "I can't hear you!"

North Carolina’s General Assembly has proposed a bill that would prevent scientists from using modern, scientific models to accurately predict what might happen to sea levels if climate change continues unabated.

Let that sink in for a minute.

Rather than use science to accurately predict what might happen to its valuable coast areas, and thereby educate its citizens about what can be done to prepare for this change, North Carolina’s political leaders would rather just make the truth illegal.

Typically, scientists use an exponential model to predict how much sea levels will rise if global temperatures continue to do the same. They have to use a non-linear model because each time the climate warms even a fraction of a degree, it has a major impact on the ocean’s current volume as well as ice cap melt rates.

Taking these variables into account, most climate experts say that sea levels will rise at least three feet by the end of the century. But this doesn’t sit well with a group of legislators from 20 coastal NC counties whose economies will be most impacted by the swelling seas. So, they’ve introduced Replacement House Bill 819, which makes it illegal for state scientists to use exponential models to predict changes in sea level.

The key language is in section 2, paragraph e, talking about rates of sea level rise: “These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of seas-level rise may be extrapolated linearly. …”

“It goes on,” writes Scott Huler for Scientific American, “but there’s the core: North Carolina legislators have decided that the way to make exponential increases in sea level rise – caused by those inconvenient feedback loops we keep hearing about from scientists – go away is to make it against the law to extrapolate exponential; we can only extrapolate along a line predicted by previous sea level rises.”

Under the new, linear-only rule, the state-appointed board of scientists of the NC Coastal Resources Commission would only be able to predict an 8-inch sea level rise by the end of the century. And that leaves the legislators from those 20 coastal counties feeling just tickled pink.

Now this level of denial might seem shocking, but it’s par for the course in North Carolina. Throughout it’s history, the state has attempted to legislate away lots of pesky things that it just didn’t like, including abortion, gay marriage and racial integration. Unfortunately, this war on reality does nothing more than jeopardize the physical and economic safety of North Carolina’s citizens, who would probably like to know the truth about what’s in store for their state.

Personally, I’m almost looking forward to the day when, knee deep in water on the front porches of their Outer Banks mansions, these legislators will be forced to inform the ocean that it’s breaking the law.




kalikshama -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 1:30:45 PM)

Oops, this was on Colbert recently so I thought it was a current issue, but I see:

North Carolina Sea Level Bill Rewrite Rejects Sole Use Of Historical Trends

06/22/2012

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — A rewrite of a bill that controls how North Carolina prepares for climate change along the coast is headed to the general assembly next week.

A conference committee met Thursday morning to rework the bill and reject language lamented by the scientific community that would limit the state to using historical data to prepare for rising sea levels.

...





Karmastic -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 2:47:13 PM)

hmm, good one anyway.

if/when they DO get flooded, who ya think is gonna have to pay for it all?

US!




kdsub -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 2:56:58 PM)

It makes me so damn mad at this type of ignorance I just want to bitch slap some sense into them.

Butch




JstAnotherSub -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 2:58:48 PM)

oops-lol




servantforuse -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 4:13:25 PM)

No one, because it will never happen.




DarkSteven -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 5:31:59 PM)

Reminds me of how the Catholic church banned Galileo's writings because he declared that the earth revolved around the sun.




outhere69 -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 6:23:42 PM)

A rise, or the magnitude of the rise?




servantforuse -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 7:37:30 PM)

Neither.




DomKen -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 8:13:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Neither.

Would you care to bet on that?




Hillwilliam -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 8:27:10 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

No one, because it will never happen.

If you had your head out of your ass and actually looked at some data, you'd see that they are being flooded now.
I was in Hatteras village a coupla years ago on a tuna fishing trip and a long term (several days) offshore wind had set up a seiche in the Pamlico sound. the result was 2 feet of water on main street at high tide.
A few more inches of rise and that town is FUCKED. Guess who is gonna pay for it? US Taxpayers because the NC legislature is too fucking ignorant to plan.




DarkSteven -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/25/2012 9:21:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: kalikshama

Typically, scientists use an exponential model to predict how much sea levels will rise if global temperatures continue to do the same. They have to use a non-linear model because each time the climate warms even a fraction of a degree, it has a major impact on the ocean’s current volume as well as ice cap melt rates.

Taking these variables into account, most climate experts say that sea levels will rise at least three feet by the end of the century. But this doesn’t sit well with a group of legislators from 20 coastal NC counties whose economies will be most impacted by the swelling seas. So, they’ve introduced Replacement House Bill 819, which makes it illegal for state scientists to use exponential models to predict changes in sea level.

The key language is in section 2, paragraph e, talking about rates of sea level rise: “These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of seas-level rise may be extrapolated linearly. …”



The article is horribly written, by someone who does not know math. Here's my take:

The scientists are using a model which fits an exponential curve to existing data, because it fits the data best. The model is actually a linear one, with virtually no rise whatsoever until a recent date, presumably in the 1950s or 1960s, when the linear model gives way to an exponential one.

The bit about "They have to use a non-linear model because each time the climate warms even a fraction of a degree, it has a major impact on the ocean’s current volume as well as ice cap melt rates." is complete hogwash. The scientists are using a nonlinear model because it fits the time-dependent data.

It sounds as though the legislators are forcing a model which models as a straight line since 1900. This will have a much smaller rate of change than an exponential one.

I assume that the legislators are as ill-equipped as the journalist to understand any of this. I also assume that the law was written for them by a pressure group, which was able to hire someone who understood math.




Moonhead -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/26/2012 4:50:45 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Neither.

Would you care to bet on that?

Are you sure you want to go there? His clade has a pretty bad rep for shutting up and paying when they're proven wrong. Remember poster who was betting that the twat in Oslo was a Mooslim with a hate on for Scandinavian Aryans, then insisting that they never said any such thing?




DomKen -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/26/2012 5:55:20 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Neither.

Would you care to bet on that?

Are you sure you want to go there? His clade has a pretty bad rep for shutting up and paying when they're proven wrong. Remember poster who was betting that the twat in Oslo was a Mooslim with a hate on for Scandinavian Aryans, then insisting that they never said any such thing?

But then I'd get to rub his face in it every time he posts.




Moonhead -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/26/2012 7:45:23 AM)

Maybe I'm doing him a disservice, but he'd be more likely to pretend it never happened than pay any attention to that. One of them inconvenient facts, dig?




Musicmystery -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/26/2012 7:53:09 AM)

LOL. The South will rise again, but the sea will not.

Good luck with that, fellas.




Hillwilliam -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/26/2012 8:46:38 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

LOL. The South will rise again, but the sea will not.

Good luck with that, fellas.

FUKUM, I live in the mountains.[8D]




Musicmystery -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/26/2012 8:48:03 AM)

Me too! ;-)

But as long as there's federally guaranteed flood insurance for idiots, I'll continue to not like this.




vincentML -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/26/2012 9:24:50 AM)

They live in a coastal flood zone. It's not like they haven't had enough warning.




Musicmystery -> RE: NC Ignores Science, Tries To Make Sea Level Rise Illegal (6/26/2012 9:26:06 AM)

Tell that to Congress.

I hear they're against wasting money. Or so they claim.




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