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RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 1:24:26 PM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
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quote:

There was clear evidence that the geocentric model was wrong. Aristotle simply ignored it. Read up on epicycles.


Meh! Epicycles were not first proposed until 100 years after Aristotle lived. You are evading my point about accepting 'truth' in the absence of other explanations. That's not science; it is superstition.

quote:

One more time, what predictions does Curry's model make? If it isn't predictive and it will fit any future events how is that useful?


One more time, she says it is a testable hypothesis. Go argue with her. Oh, you haven't read her. One more time, Muller's paper has not been peer reviewed and you grasp at it as gospel. Desperate ?

(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 181
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 1:34:51 PM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
So until there is another suspect, with better evidence than exists for the CO2 warming linkage, that has to be treated as a fact.


Therein lies your problem. Declaring fact simply because there is nothing else to hang your hat on, no matter that the hat rack is currently not attributable as causal.

That's desperation.


No. That's Occam's Razor. When a possible explanation exists that supports all the evidence it is wrong and scientifically pointless to propose a more complicated answer unless and until there is evidence that the old answer does not explain.



Se non è vero, è ben trovato ("Even if it is not true, it is well conceived")
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor#Controversial_aspects_of_the_razor

(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 182
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 1:46:47 PM   
Yachtie


Posts: 3593
Joined: 1/18/2012
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
So until there is another suspect, with better evidence than exists for the CO2 warming linkage, that has to be treated as a fact.


Therein lies your problem. Declaring fact simply because there is nothing else to hang your hat on, no matter that the hat rack is currently not attributable as causal.

That's desperation.


No. That's Occam's Razor. When a possible explanation exists that supports all the evidence it is wrong and scientifically pointless to propose a more complicated answer unless and until there is evidence that the old answer does not explain.



Here's what bothers me about it all. First, it's not about the warming but about Man's supposed causation. The warming being experienced has happened before. Thus "Occam's razor" - if there are two hypothesis that explain the data equally well choose the simpler, would point to natural causes before any claim of Man. If the warming were new I'd have to agree with you. But it's not. It has happened before.

This is not denial of warming, nor does it put the kibosh on Man as potentially culpable to some degree. If it's natural for this warming cycle to be occurring, it's also quite within the realm of possibility that Man is irrelevant to it. The science is not in and might even take a few hundred years yet.

The problem is the alarmists. Is fire being yelled in the theater where there is no fire?






_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 183
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 1:52:24 PM   
Rule


Posts: 10479
Joined: 12/5/2005
Status: offline
Fire! Fire in the theater!

But not to worry: I am a fire insurance salesman and I have an attractive offer for all worried souls! Just pay up, and if your clothes are smoke tainted, my company will reimburse you for having them washed!

(in reply to Yachtie)
Profile   Post #: 184
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 3:21:01 PM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
So until there is another suspect, with better evidence than exists for the CO2 warming linkage, that has to be treated as a fact.


Therein lies your problem. Declaring fact simply because there is nothing else to hang your hat on, no matter that the hat rack is currently not attributable as causal.

That's desperation.


No. That's Occam's Razor. When a possible explanation exists that supports all the evidence it is wrong and scientifically pointless to propose a more complicated answer unless and until there is evidence that the old answer does not explain.



Here's what bothers me about it all. First, it's not about the warming but about Man's supposed causation. The warming being experienced has happened before. Thus "Occam's razor" - if there are two hypothesis that explain the data equally well choose the simpler, would point to natural causes before any claim of Man. If the warming were new I'd have to agree with you. But it's not. It has happened before.

This is not denial of warming, nor does it put the kibosh on Man as potentially culpable to some degree. If it's natural for this warming cycle to be occurring, it's also quite within the realm of possibility that Man is irrelevant to it. The science is not in and might even take a few hundred years yet.

The problem is the alarmists. Is fire being yelled in the theater where there is no fire?

One more time, there are a number of factors that should (based on what we've learned about the past glaciations) be causing global temperatures to decline. Most predominantly is the fact that Northern Hemisphere summer is presently occuring during the orbital aphelion thus much less solar radiation is being received when the most land is pointed atthe sun most directly.

Now couple that with the undeniable facts that the climate is warming rapidly, that we have released billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere that have been sequestered for more than 300 million years, that deforestation has drastically reduced the planet's ability to process the influx of CO2, that CO2 undeniably functions as a greenhouse gas, that no other factor seems to have changed in a way that would correspond with the observed warming. The conclusion is both natural and has stood up to better than a decade of serious scientific inquiry.

(in reply to Yachtie)
Profile   Post #: 185
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 3:23:25 PM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
So until there is another suspect, with better evidence than exists for the CO2 warming linkage, that has to be treated as a fact.


Therein lies your problem. Declaring fact simply because there is nothing else to hang your hat on, no matter that the hat rack is currently not attributable as causal.

That's desperation.


No. That's Occam's Razor. When a possible explanation exists that supports all the evidence it is wrong and scientifically pointless to propose a more complicated answer unless and until there is evidence that the old answer does not explain.



Se non è vero, è ben trovato ("Even if it is not true, it is well conceived")
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor#Controversial_aspects_of_the_razor

So you have some evidence in favor of CO2 not being a photon trap? Or is your evidence that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has not increased by more than 100 ppm since 1750?

Simply stamping your feet and declaring the facts are not so is not science and is not convincing to rational people.

(in reply to vincentML)
Profile   Post #: 186
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 3:28:48 PM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

There was clear evidence that the geocentric model was wrong. Aristotle simply ignored it. Read up on epicycles.


Meh! Epicycles were not first proposed until 100 years after Aristotle lived. You are evading my point about accepting 'truth' in the absence of other explanations. That's not science; it is superstition.

They were first proposed 100 years later but the problems with the observed orbits of the planets was known at the time.

quote:

quote:

One more time, what predictions does Curry's model make? If it isn't predictive and it will fit any future events how is that useful?


One more time, she says it is a testable hypothesis. Go argue with her. Oh, you haven't read her. One more time, Muller's paper has not been peer reviewed and you grasp at it as gospel. Desperate ?

I have read her work, just her blog since her hypothesis is yet to see the inside of a peer reviewed journal, and all she claims is the climate shifted at some time in the past, the climate is not warming now and the climate might shift again in the future. With no mechanism and no predictions on either when the next shift would occur or what the climate would shift to afterwards.

There might be an idea in there but from a mathematicians POV, she seems to have latched onto a naive idea of chaos theory and is making claims that are thoroughly disproven. Fundamentally if her idea that the ocean atmosphere relationship was so chaotic that long term modeling is impossible then short term modeling would be impossible as well and we are getting pretty good at forecasting the weather.

(in reply to vincentML)
Profile   Post #: 187
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 4:57:44 PM   
Rule


Posts: 10479
Joined: 12/5/2005
Status: offline
The Milankovitch cycle is wrong.

(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 188
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 5:01:05 PM   
Rule


Posts: 10479
Joined: 12/5/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
we are getting pretty good at forecasting the weather.

Yep. Thursday there will likely be a lot of thunder and lightning hereabouts, it is predicted.

Impressive, not so?

(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 189
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 5:50:01 PM   
Yachtie


Posts: 3593
Joined: 1/18/2012
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
One more time, ...


Yep. Again, one more time. There are those who disagree with you and your sources.

You have no skepticism about you at all. To you it appears to be settled science.

_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 190
RE: climate change denier comes to his senses - 8/13/2012 8:15:38 PM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
One more time, ...


Yep. Again, one more time. There are those who disagree with you and your sources.

You have no skepticism about you at all. To you it appears to be settled science.

And those people would be? A website run by ALEC's yes men is not going to convince me.

(in reply to Yachtie)
Profile   Post #: 191
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