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RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 8/24/2012 2:13:06 PM

Hillwilliam

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

He was the same clown that helped Bill Clinton get elected to a 2nd term.

Limbaugh and Newt were what cost Bob Dole the presidency in that race by chasing all the independents to the other side.

That was the last time we had even one, much less two competent people running for the office.

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RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 8/24/2012 2:21:49 PM

SternSkipper

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quote:

They have said that they are not using the data from the correct timeframe either, and it will be updated in september.

Don't spoil Rob's frothy mix.

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RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 8/24/2012 2:26:16 PM

SternSkipper

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quote:

How does you pointing out what YOU said about Obama and Weiner make ME a hypocrite? Especially when I never said you were a hypocrite.

Tazzy, Rob's right... He usually doesn't get any further than thinly veiled insults focusing on his opponent's intelligence.

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RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 8/24/2012 2:28:28 PM

tazzygirl

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SternSkipper

quote:

How does you pointing out what YOU said about Obama and Weiner make ME a hypocrite? Especially when I never said you were a hypocrite.

Tazzy, Rob's right... He usually doesn't get any further than thinly veiled insults focusing on his opponent's intelligence.

Because that isnt the part that made him a hypocrite.

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RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 8/24/2012 2:38:34 PM

SternSkipper

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quote:

Because that isnt the part that made him a hypocrite.

I didn't say it wasn't any less soiled an approach to debate. What do you want? He bnow officially belongs to the Party of DESPERATION

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RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 8/24/2012 2:44:19 PM

tazzygirl

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quote:

I asked a question about holding Obama to the same standards as Bush, so if you are holding Obama to the same standards, why did you respond at all? And why do you think Obama inherited Bush's mess? Didn't he spend millions of dollars to win the office? Didn't he campaign on his ability to correct the mess Bush created all by his lonesome? Didn't candidate Obama say himself that if the economy hasn't improved in three years he should be voted out of office?

I responded because your position is that of the far right.. which is extremely hypocritical in that all things are Obama's to blame... and none are those to blame on anyone else... with the massive exception of the bubble burst we experienced, which, according to the far right, is soley the responsibility of the democrats.

Either who won the WH, Obama or McCain, would have inherited the mess. Do you think it would have magically disappeared if there was a Republican there?

quote:

Didn't he spend millions of dollars to win the office?

As did Bush, as did Reagan, as Did McCain.

quote:

Didn't he campaign on his ability to correct the mess Bush created all by his lonesome?

Considering the unemployment rate is at the same level as it was when he took office... and better than when his fiscal policies could be initiated... then I would say he has achieved a great measure of that goal.

quote:

Didn't candidate Obama say himself that if the economy hasn't improved in three years he should be voted out of office?

Nope, he didnt. Try getting the quote correct. Are you saying the economy is just as bad now as it was in the beginning?

quote:

Are you gonna try the joeother Chewbacca defense for Obama and say that Obama really thought the republicans would just roll over and accept all of Obama's plans?

Oh, do show me where I ever said that.

quote:

Are you really saying the last three years really aren't Obama's fault, it's Boehner's fault?

Cry baby boner? Naaaa.. he is an idiot. And some is his fault. But the majority were market forces in effect as Obama was sworn in. Or are you going to deny that Obama had little to do with much of what was happening in the economy at that time and its those forces that have put us in the position we are in?

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Post #: 46

RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 11/2/2012 4:14:22 AM

DarkSteven

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As a data guy, I was pretty ticked that the CU model was even given any attention by the media. Nate Silver, the data god, ripped the model here. He said:

1. The U. of Colo. model fits the equivalent of 7 unknowns to 8 elections. That's not a good idea.

2. The Colo. model also assumes huge effects from unemployment if incumbent is a Dem., but none if he's GOP. Hard claim to defend.

3. Also, it's false advertising to claim CU model has predicted the last 8 elections right. It's a new model. Hasn't predicted anything yet.

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Fitting 7 unknowns to eight data points assures a mathematical fit, but one that it completely invalid. Instead of a smooth line, you get an equation that careens all over things and looks ridiculous.

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RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 11/2/2012 7:02:36 AM

mnottertail

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And the software is regressive, it there is no more validity to the data than what has been plugged into the Laffer Curve. Which is to say, nothing.

There should be a disclaimer that it has a 98% confidence level of being useless.

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 11/2/2012 7:03:32 AM >

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RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 11/2/2012 9:52:10 AM

subrob1967

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

As a data guy, I was pretty ticked that the CU model was even given any attention by the media. Nate Silver, the data god, ripped the model here. He said:

1. The U. of Colo. model fits the equivalent of 7 unknowns to 8 elections. That's not a good idea.

2. The Colo. model also assumes huge effects from unemployment if incumbent is a Dem., but none if he's GOP. Hard claim to defend.

3. Also, it's false advertising to claim CU model has predicted the last 8 elections right. It's a new model. Hasn't predicted anything yet.

************

Fitting 7 unknowns to eight data points assures a mathematical fit, but one that it completely invalid. Instead of a smooth line, you get an equation that careens all over things and looks ridiculous.

Why Nate Silver is wrong...

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RE: Obama loses in November according to CU - 11/2/2012 9:57:12 AM

mnottertail

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Took him alot of words to say what I have said many times and distinctly.

Polls dont mean shit.

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Post #: 50