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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 8:46:02 AM   
vincentML


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quote:

If I say that the Chinese middle class now outnumbers the entire population of the USA and Canada, then perhaps that will give an indication of the scale of changes occurring there. For the political elites in North American and Europe to ignore these changes is somewhere between delusory and criminally negligent. The accompanying political and economic shifts are momentous and will re-draw the world's geo-political map. Given the rate of progress to date, it is not unrealistic to place a 20-30 year time frame on China, and possibly India, equalling the US as world economic and political powerhouses .


Firstly, kudos for your insights. But what makes you think China rising is being ignored by the West?

quote:

In that world, the notion of China being a "labour pool"/manufacturing hub for the West will be utterly redundant. How will India act on the world stage as its economy expands and its people enjoy better living standards?


At the moment both of these nations are dependent on world trade and have enormous internal problems and problems on their borders. But yes, anything is possible in the future. A change in world order has often come about though a rupture of the straining tensions. Are the players willing to risk a repeat of 1914?

I said above that China currently suffers from an imbalance between their export and consumer economies. This is what I meant:

The twin cornerstones of China’s spectacular growth in recent years have been exports and investment. But growth in exports, which usually account for about one-quarter of GDP growth, has dwindled sharply in recent months — dropping from 11.3 percent in June, for example, to just 1 percent in July.

India looks like a real mess from here and Russia suffers from a declining population. Saying that because you seem impressed by population size.

Do you discount a Canada/Mexico/US - Japan/Korea/Vietnam/Indonesia/Philippines as a Pacific alliance in the face of a risen China?

What of Australia and New Zealand?

But yes, you are right. Anything can happen. August, 1914 was presaged by an economic globalization as well, and the rise of new technologies. Twenty, thirty years, maybe fifty. Who knows? But, you present an interesting gaming of the possibilities.

Slightly off topic, here is an article on Israel/Iran that might be of interest to you:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/09/us-iran-nuclear-israel-surprise-idUSBRE88807820120909

Be well

< Message edited by vincentML -- 9/10/2012 9:11:39 AM >

(in reply to tweakabelle)
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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 8:48:59 AM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

It isnt as if we dont have rare earth metals here (they aint nowhere near as 'rare' as people are thinking) at most China could drive the price up thereby making it worthwhile for the capitalists to dig it out of our ground rather than buy from the communists.

I think what China is doing is buying it up to prevent any market fluctuations like oil and foodstuffs and those capitalistic exploitations, because of the vast number of electronic devices they are selling around the world that use them.




Agree with you on both counts. See my post #94 above.



< Message edited by vincentML -- 9/10/2012 8:49:25 AM >

(in reply to mnottertail)
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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 10:39:10 AM   
DesideriScuri


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
It isnt as if we dont have rare earth metals here (they aint nowhere near as 'rare' as people are thinking) at most China could drive the price up thereby making it worthwhile for the capitalists to dig it out of our ground rather than buy from the communists.
I think what China is doing is buying it up to prevent any market fluctuations like oil and foodstuffs and those capitalistic exploitations, because of the vast number of electronic devices they are selling around the world that use them.

Agree with you on both counts. See my post #94 above.


vincentML, mnottertail, I read an article. In the article, the writer referred to the minerals as "rare earth elements."

http://ideas.time.com/2011/12/04/the-real-china-threat/

And, a little more on the issue....

http://www.mining.com/discovery-of-rare-earth-minerals-on-ocean-floor-could-break-chinese-stranglehold/

So, perhaps the "rare earth minerals" aren't quite as "rare" as mn stated.

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Profile   Post #: 103
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 10:45:54 AM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		mn didn't state that they were rare, in fact mn stated the contrapositive.

They are rare in comparison to aluminum.

what a state you are in; confusion perhaps? 



< Message edited by mnottertail -- 9/10/2012 10:49:19 AM >

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Profile   Post #: 104
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 11:12:39 AM   
vincentML


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Status: offline 		Interesting articles, DS. The Time Mag article is a bit dated. Since its publication the President has gone to the WTO [however much influence that body might have] and prices have started to reduce.

The discovery of rare earth minerals on the ocean floor is fascinating. I wonder if there are any to be mined on our moon or on Mars. I guess that is a ways in the future.

btw, I think you misread mnottertail.

Here is a link to prices. You will notice there has been a marked % drop in prices of most over the past year.

http://www.mineralprices.com/

Here is a link to the wiki article if you are interested

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth_element

Oh, and remember Romney has promised to be tough with China. So, no worries really.


(in reply to DesideriScuri)
Profile   Post #: 105
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 11:42:56 AM   
DesideriScuri


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
mn didn't state that they were rare, in fact mn stated the contrapositive.
They are rare in comparison to aluminum.
what a state you are in; confusion perhaps? 


Dude, take a chill pill. I left out a fucking comma.

The sentence should have been:

"So, perhaps the "rare earth minerals" aren't quite as "rare," as mn stated."

But, you do have to get on your horse and ride, don't you.

@vincentML: The Times article is a bit dated, but that was likely around the time I read it. I know it was before Christmas because my best friend is currently working in Germany for a battery manufacturer and I asked him about it when he was back stateside for Christmas. I hadn't kept up on it, and wouldn't have likely even read the Times piece had I not been at the dentist office.

I know you were speaking sarcastically about Romney getting tough with China, but that had more to do with their monetary pricing and keeping the yuan low. But, he could be on top of this, too. Can't wait to reap that benefit. :D



_____________________________

What I support:

  • A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
  • Personal Responsibility
  • Help for the truly needy
  • Limited Government
  • Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)

(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 106
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 12:36:09 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

I know you were speaking sarcastically about Romney getting tough with China, but that had more to do with their monetary pricing and keeping the yuan low. But, he could be on top of this, too. Can't wait to reap that benefit. :D


Oh, I hope you are wrong

(in reply to DesideriScuri)
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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 2:55:56 PM   
Aswad


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

In the face of such a posture a cost benefit decision for creating a new industry here would come down on the side of the benefit, and the cost be damned.


Economies of scale break down, for one thing. People would not be buying the same things if the pricetag had an extra digit, and thus you lose the consumer drive element, which makes it even less economical, and so forth. Without resorting to better market regulation and state owned companies to provide the critical materials, you would face a real supply problem. Not that it would go away entirely, but you're looking at a major loss of production and research capacity with the price shift. I take it you've had a look at how the material costs have changed over the past couple of decades?

quote:

The threat of such an action would lead to dire consequences, don't you think? Do you believe America would sit back and play the hapless supplicant? I don't think so.


Nothing you can do. Taking China on the ground is simply not viable. Bombing or nuking will just destroy what you want. And they pretty damn well know both of these things. To say nothing of how it would strengthen their bond with Russia, or that they have their own nuclear weapons. You can't afford to rattle the sabers over a small matter like the conditions of the precariate (I don't consider it a small matter, but the powers that be do seem to). It would be a high stakes game, of course, but China will certainly be aware of the fact that they're in a position to deny you what you want, regardless of what you do.

I would like to think the American people would overthrow any government that would invoke MAD over "rare" materials.

(Yes, Ron, they're not that rare, but they're still scarce.)

IWYW,
— Aswad.



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From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.


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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 3:06:57 PM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		well, more exploration, more recycling some alternatives, some form of cloning?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth_element

I mean we haven't really had a need to look for them until now.

http://mrdata.usgs.gov/mineral-resources/ree.html

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 9/10/2012 3:09:37 PM >

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Profile   Post #: 109
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 3:36:48 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

I take it you've had a look at how the material costs have changed over the past couple of decades?

Hell, the cost of living has changed over the past couple of decades. Is gold a strategic rare earth mineral? Nah.
I see that rare earth mineral costs have come down dramatically since last December. How to explain that?
http://www.mineralprices.com/

quote:

Nothing you can do. Taking China on the ground is simply not viable. Bombing or nuking will just destroy what you want.


Well, since we are playing war games here, we could counter by blocking the Malacca Straits to shut down their oil supply from the Middle East and Africa. Does Russia have a pipeline into China? Secondly, we could embargo every American corporation with facilities in China and shut down China's economy. Thirdly, we could bomb their processing facilities and deprive them of the rare earth minerals; there are plenty of other sources in the world.

So, does China wish to provoke war and bring down the world's economy? To what benefit for them? Did you not say earlier they did not seem to have such interests? You did.

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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 3:38:29 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

well, more exploration, more recycling some alternatives, some form of cloning?

Did you notice the recent television commercials offering to buy your old cell phone?

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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 3:41:09 PM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		nope, tell  me where to go, I got lots of em.

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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 4:02:45 PM   
KYsissy


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Status: offline 		China will need fresh water more than anything else in the coming years. If they don't solve this problem everything else wont matter. National geographic had a write up several years ago about how most of their water is now polluted amd unfit for drinking. Here is another more recent article

http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2011/world/choke-point-china%E2%80%94confronting-water-scarcity-and-energy-demand-in-the-world%E2%80%99s-largest-country/

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Profile   Post #: 113
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 6:44:05 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

nope, tell  me where to go, I got lots of em.


Ummm . . . I really did not jot down any addresses. were mostly fly by nite companies mining for rare earth metals in other peoples' phones.

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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 6:54:08 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: KYsissy

China will need fresh water more than anything else in the coming years. If they don't solve this problem everything else wont matter. National geographic had a write up several years ago about how most of their water is now polluted amd unfit for drinking. Here is another more recent article

http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2011/world/choke-point-china%E2%80%94confronting-water-scarcity-and-energy-demand-in-the-world%E2%80%99s-largest-country/

Very informative and interesting read, KY. Thank you.

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RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/10/2012 8:01:07 PM   
DesideriScuri


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
nope, tell  me where to go, I got lots of em.


http://www.gazelle.com/sell/cell-phone



_____________________________

What I support:

  • A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
  • Personal Responsibility
  • Help for the truly needy
  • Limited Government
  • Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)

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Profile   Post #: 116
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/11/2012 5:35:21 AM   
vincentML


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Thanks for the interesting discussion. Learned a bit about China and rare earth metals. Thanks for that too. I am off on holiday for a week

< Message edited by vincentML -- 9/11/2012 5:42:06 AM >

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Profile   Post #: 117
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/11/2012 6:12:48 AM   
mnottertail


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
nope, tell  me where to go, I got lots of em.


http://www.gazelle.com/sell/cell-phone




not a recycler in that sense, these guys are looking for current phones tied to companies to resell on ebay or whatever, a refurb outfit.

I am looking to recycle old old cells.


_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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Profile   Post #: 118
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/11/2012 6:24:12 AM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		I got some of the fresh water covered, it will cost them several 1000s of gallons of propane per barrel of water from me.

One thing that will get most of the folks before this rare earth metals business (cuz we can live without iPods) is the finite amount of phosphorus (usually from phosphate) that exists to be mined.   We are growing everything we can on as little as we can to feed the world, and you gotta have that for fertilizer, in fact there was someone either here or Fet that misrepresented an executive order by Obama regarding national security (one interesting item on it was phosphates, now a national security issue, and this problem with china making chips for our guidance and control systems and so on for our military gear ((one of the exceptions listed in the invisible hand by the old Smithmeister, btw)) and the urgency of getting this planned).

Anyway, we need air, water, food (in that order) to survive, the rest is fur lined sinks, and we could live without it.

Just sayin.

   

_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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Profile   Post #: 119
RE: The end of 'Pax Americana' ....? - 9/11/2012 2:03:44 PM   
DesideriScuri


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
Anyway, we need air, water, food (in that order) to survive, the rest is fur lined sinks, and we could live without it.
Just sayin.



Wait. Where's Health Care in that?!? Are you saying that health care isn't needed to survive?!?!?!? You had better retract that before someone with fangs and claws comes a-scratchin'!


_____________________________

What I support:

  • A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
  • Personal Responsibility
  • Help for the truly needy
  • Limited Government
  • Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)

(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 120
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