PunisherNOLA
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ORIGINAL: DomKen
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ORIGINAL: crazyml
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ORIGINAL: DomKen
They cannot strike the mainland US because any strike that is not a full on destruction of the country, and China cannot do that, results in their utter annihilation.
I'm afraid I'm defeated by your peculiar application of "logic". First you imply that they lack the technology to strike the USA, now you switch to the mutually assured destruction argument. Which, is a little silly, as China doesn't have to be capable of utterly annihilating the USA to present a compelling deterent to the USA. It just needs to assure the USA that, for example, NY, Washington DC, and San Francisco would be turned into glass.
You fundamentally misunderstand the chinese nuclear weapon delivery capability. They may have MIRV warheds, bought from the Russians, but it is though that the DF-5 and DF-31 series missiles do not have those warheads. Therefore the weapons they do have capable of hitting the mainland US are single warhead missiles and of the low megaton yield. They do not have an extensive early warning satellite system, they may not have any at all. The bulk of the weapons they do have that can reach the US are kept in an unfueled state and must be brought into the open air to be fueled for hours before a launch would be possible.
The conclusion that pretty much every expert has drawn is that the Chinese do not consider the US to be a threat and their nuclear arsenal is built for regional conflicts with Russia and/or India (nations China has fought with in the recent past). They maintain a few weapons able to strike the US, and the rest of the world, as a status symbol and a very modest deterent. So since the discussion was about the US being attacked by China I quite correctly said that China lacks the capability to strike the mainland US.
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The Df-5A's are housed in mountainside caves. We know which ones and where. I'm beyond certain we have eyes on those cave mouths 24/7.
I'm beyond certain that the Chinese are plenty capable of figuring out how likely it is that a foreign power knows where their missiles are and I am beyond certain that they wouldn't say "oh drat, that tears it, we can't use those missiles any more" and leave it at that.
Out of idle curiosity, what would you do if you knew that your primary defence against nuclear attack had been compromised? I get the impression that a smart chap like you wouldn't do "nothing"?
Back in the 70's the Chinese started building silos and fake silos for their DF-4's and DF-5's. They stopped for some reason and continue to rely on keeping these weapons in mountainside caves. They seem to consider the DF-31 and the soon to be deployed DF-41 which are vehicle launched and road mobile to be their primary nuclear deterent. The challenges and expense of building such a weapon system may be part of the reason they have such a small inventory of weapons capable of striking targets outside Asia.
I don't remember the exact number, but I want to say China had somewhere around the neighborhood of 50 launch vehicles capable of reaching the CONUS, the liquid fueled DF-5. the solid fueled DF-31 and the longer range version of the DF-31, the DF-31A. This was as of 2011 and it's unlikely they've made great advances since then. Of those, the DF-5 is the only one possibly capable of multiple warheads (MIRV) since the 31 series only has a payload of 1000 kg whereas the liquid fueled DF-5 is capable of carrying 3000 kg.
This significantly lowers the nuclear threat from China upon the CONUS. As DomKen points out, those liquid fueled missiles sit in an unfueled state until they are ready to launch. Our satellites would pick those puppies off before they could launch. Of those 50 missiles, you would have to assume at least 2 of those would be used as EMP (detonated at 100k feet MSL) leaving what is left of the other 48 missiles. (Let's assume half of their 20 DF-5's actually launch for argument sake, which would leave 38 Single warhead missiles heading this way.) Those 38 warheads WOULD significantly damage one of the four typical types of target, one but not all.
The US response would be the unleashing of a significant amount of our 3000 warheads upon China. So yes, the spectre of the consequences of such an attack should certainly act as a deterrent against Chinese nuclear attack upon the CONUS.
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