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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 2:08:23 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

The simple truth is, on any given day, we could get smacked by an asteroid we never see coming.

Nasa is tracking near earth objects . . . fwiw . . . not likely to take us by surprise.
http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/

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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 2:12:39 PM   
jlf1961


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

The simple truth is, on any given day, we could get smacked by an asteroid we never see coming.

Nasa is tracking near earth objects . . . fwiw . . . not likely to take us by surprise.
http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/



NASA estimates that they have found 90% of the larger NEOs.

Astronomers now estimate there are roughly 19,500 -- not 35,000 -- mid-size near-Earth asteroids. Scientists say this improved understanding of the population may indicate the hazard to Earth could be somewhat less than previously thought. However, the majority of these mid-size asteroids remain to be discovered. More research also is needed to determine if fewer mid-size objects (between 330 and 3,300-feet wide) also mean fewer potentially hazardous asteroids, those that come closest to Earth.

_____________________________

Boy, it sure would be nice if we had some grenades, don't you think?

You cannot control who comes into your life, but you can control which airlock you throw them out of.

Paranoid Paramilitary Gun Loving Conspiracy Theorist AND EQUAL OPPORTUNI

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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 3:14:35 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

The simple truth is, on any given day, we could get smacked by an asteroid we never see coming.

Nasa is tracking near earth objects . . . fwiw . . . not likely to take us by surprise.
http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/

Check with them. They do not think they're tracking all the NEO's.

(in reply to vincentML)
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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 4:35:11 PM   
jlf1961


Posts: 14840
Joined: 6/10/2008
From: Somewhere Texas
Status: offline 		Considering there are 40 to 50 new comets discovered each year, there is a bigger chance that one of these newly discovered objects could end up hitting us. Since most NEOs discovered give us years to determine if it is going to hit, a newly discovered comet might just give us months.

_____________________________

Boy, it sure would be nice if we had some grenades, don't you think?

You cannot control who comes into your life, but you can control which airlock you throw them out of.

Paranoid Paramilitary Gun Loving Conspiracy Theorist AND EQUAL OPPORTUNI

(in reply to DomKen)
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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 4:47:14 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

The simple truth is, on any given day, we could get smacked by an asteroid we never see coming.

Nasa is tracking near earth objects . . . fwiw . . . not likely to take us by surprise.
http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/

Check with them. They do not think they're tracking all the NEO's.

Ken, I am aware of the constraints of money and technology. More time is spent [not by Nasa] seeking Santa and his reindeer.

(in reply to DomKen)
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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 5:01:07 PM   
stef


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

NASA estimates that they have found 90% of the larger NEOs.

They were given a mandate in 2005 to discover 90%, and they have not been able to satisfy it.

Finding: Congress has mandated that NASA discover 90 percent of all near-Earth objects 140 meters in diameter or greater by 2020. The administration has not requested and Congress has not appropriated new funds to meet this objective. Only limited facilities are currently involved in this survey/discovery effort, funded by NASA’s existing budget.

Finding: The current near-Earth object surveys cannot meet the goals of the 2005 NASA Authorization Act directing NASA to discover 90 percent of all near-Earth objects 140 meters in diameter or greater by 2020.

http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12738&page=1

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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 5:05:46 PM   
dcnovice


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quote:

More time is spent [not by Nasa] seeking Santa and his reindeer.

Well, the jolly old elf would be a lot more exciting to find.

_____________________________

No matter how cynical you become,
it's never enough to keep up.

JANE WAGNER, THE SEARCH FOR SIGNS OF
INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE

(in reply to vincentML)
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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 5:08:23 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

Considering there are 40 to 50 new comets discovered each year, there is a bigger chance that one of these newly discovered objects could end up hitting us. Since most NEOs discovered give us years to determine if it is going to hit, a newly discovered comet might just give us months.

To come to that conclusion I think we would have to have data on where these new comets were when they were discovered. How many newly discovered NEOs have been perilously close on first sighting? Based on that model what are the probabilities that newly discovered NEOs present a short term threat? A lot of uncertainty without the data, I think.

But an interesting topic to have a few beers over

Btw, has anyone mentioned that Jesus prophecised the End Time during his days?

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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 5:09:28 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: dcnovice

quote:

More time is spent [not by Nasa] seeking Santa and his reindeer.

Well, the jolly old elf would be a lot more exciting to find.

Such a find would certainly impact a lot of world views

(in reply to dcnovice)
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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 5:54:50 PM   
jlf1961


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Status: offline 		Santa is the reason I started the other thread about not being able to buy a fully operational Russian made Tunguska anti aircraft tank.

_____________________________

Boy, it sure would be nice if we had some grenades, don't you think?

You cannot control who comes into your life, but you can control which airlock you throw them out of.

Paranoid Paramilitary Gun Loving Conspiracy Theorist AND EQUAL OPPORTUNI

(in reply to vincentML)
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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 7:38:46 PM   
jlf1961


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Status: offline 		Well if the 21st is the end of the world, then it is too late to really do anything.

However, according to scientists, if we were to discover a large asteroid that is going to hit earth, we would have years to plan on how to deal with the situation.

The question then becomes do we concentrate on trying to prevent the strike, or do we concentrate on saving as many people as possible?

Maybe both should have equal priority.

If the object is not too big, but big enough to be a significant threat, then all we have to do is evacuate the area that would be most affected by the impact.

IF the object is larger that could cause world wide devastation, then the only true alternative for survival is going underground.

How do you choose who goes to the shelter and who does not?

_____________________________

Boy, it sure would be nice if we had some grenades, don't you think?

You cannot control who comes into your life, but you can control which airlock you throw them out of.

Paranoid Paramilitary Gun Loving Conspiracy Theorist AND EQUAL OPPORTUNI

(in reply to jlf1961)
Profile   Post #: 111
RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 8:22:27 PM   
Aswad


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

However, according to scientists, if we were to discover a large asteroid that is going to hit earth, we would have years to plan on how to deal with the situation.


1. Nonsense. We have a decent probability of getting some advance warning.
2. A few years means nothing in this context, as preparing to deal with such a thing isn't something you can do on the fly.

quote:

Maybe both should have equal priority.


Maybe it should be a question of rational management. Like, have some bright bulb figure out what our options are and which options to devote how much effort to. I know, totally novel and nondemocratic, but it works (partly for those exact reasons, I suppose).

quote:

If the object is not too big, but big enough to be a significant threat, then all we have to do is evacuate the area that would be most affected by the impact.


Such an object would probably hit without much prior notice, being so small.

quote:

IF the object is larger that could cause world wide devastation, then the only true alternative for survival is going underground.


What the fuck? NO.

If the object is large, then there's going to be a few things happening:

1. The atmosphere gets blown away.
2. Ocean becomes steam headed for space.
3. A ripple in solid mass shreds the planetary crust.
4. Shockwaves and heat essentially reset the biosphere.

Going underground is like diving into a pool when someone just lobbed a grenade in there.

You'll need something like the SABRE, writ large, and orbital colonies that can wait for the surface of the planet to solidify again and the water and air to get pulled back by gravity, what of it isn't blown away by solar winds. You might need to colonize Mars in the interrim, a few dozen generations, maybe. Of course, that's a centennial project to plan and implement, longer than the tracking time for any of the NEOs.

quote:

How do you choose who goes to the shelter and who does not?


Usually arbitrarily and with impunity, though in theory there's a designated survivor population.

If you haven't been told, you probably aren't in it.

IWYW,
— Aswad.


_____________________________

"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.


(in reply to jlf1961)
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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 8:37:34 PM   
jlf1961


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From: Somewhere Texas
Status: offline 		The reason that mammals survived the impact that killed the dinosaurs was that they lived underground, and when they emerged they ate insects, which carried them over until the plant life rebounded

So, in theory, underground shelters would allow people to survive.

IF the impacter is large enough to destroy the planet, then, given current technology, the human race is screwed.

By the way, the Cheyenne Mountain NORAD installation was designed as a series of buildings built underground on a series of springs. The facility was started in 1961.

Unused missile silo complexes could be converted to house 70 people with four years worth of food. There are approximately 400 of these constructs ranging from the various Atlas installations, NIKE installations and Titan installations.

There are also about 125 hardened former SAC communication bunkers that could be converted to house 40 people apiece for four years.

That is a total of 33000 people in these installations.

Then there are the various abandoned mines that have been converted to climate controlled storage, it is estimated that these facilities could house half a million people for 10 years.

There are already cold war era command bunkers for the politicians and president, plus facilities for the command staffs of the armed forces.

That leaves 59,700,797 people in the US that we need to save.

_____________________________

Boy, it sure would be nice if we had some grenades, don't you think?

You cannot control who comes into your life, but you can control which airlock you throw them out of.

Paranoid Paramilitary Gun Loving Conspiracy Theorist AND EQUAL OPPORTUNI

(in reply to Aswad)
Profile   Post #: 113
RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 8:47:50 PM   
Aswad


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Actually a nuclear detonation would act as thrust, assuming a surface impact, as the very basic physics of equal and opposite reactions. The explosion would act as a very brief rocket in that case.


The detonation would also evaporate a lot of surface mass, extending that analogy further. Indeed, it might be beneficial to try to drill into the object so as much as possible of the off-vector energy might be delivered to viable ejection masses that leave the object on-vector. If the object has a well known topology and we're able to position ourselves accurately, that is. Would be damn embarassing to fire off thrust that just gives it an even worse trajectory in the end because someone neglected to account for changes in the speed of rotation or the like.

IWYW,
— Aswad.


_____________________________

"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.


(in reply to DomKen)
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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 8:53:00 PM   
jlf1961


Posts: 14840
Joined: 6/10/2008
From: Somewhere Texas
Status: offline 		I have a better plan, we send up Lindsey Lohan or Charlie Sheen with a giant baseball bat to just swat the incoming asteroid back into space.

_____________________________

Boy, it sure would be nice if we had some grenades, don't you think?

You cannot control who comes into your life, but you can control which airlock you throw them out of.

Paranoid Paramilitary Gun Loving Conspiracy Theorist AND EQUAL OPPORTUNI

(in reply to Aswad)
Profile   Post #: 115
RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 9:42:59 PM   
Aswad


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

The top theories are, and not in any particular order:


1. Bees going extinct, e.g. colony collapse disorder.
2. Methane clarthrate release; currently on the rise up here.
3. Thermohaline shutdown; in evidence according to local researchers.
4. Quantum metastability events; Higgs energy range puts this as possible.
5. Space kid switches off the whole simulation now that his homework for Universe Engineering 101 is done.

IWYW,
— Aswad.


_____________________________

"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.


(in reply to jlf1961)
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RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 9:46:17 PM   
Aswad


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

So, in theory, underground shelters would allow people to survive.


A small impact is trivial to survive, unless you're the one getting slammed.

quote:

IF the impacter is large enough to destroy the planet, then, given current technology, the human race is screwed.


Correction: given humanity, the human race is screwed.

The technology is more than up to the challenge.

We just need experience in rolling it out.

And the will to do it, of course.

Sadly, we lack both.

IWYW,
— Aswad.


_____________________________

"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.


(in reply to jlf1961)
Profile   Post #: 117
RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 9:51:41 PM   
Aswad


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

I have a better plan, we send up Lindsey Lohan or Charlie Sheen with a giant baseball bat to just swat the incoming asteroid back into space.


I'll do you one better: we send up Charlie Sheen, step one.

Step two: we send Lindsey Lohan to me, and I'll introduce her to the baseball bat.



IWYW,
— Aswad.


_____________________________

"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.


(in reply to jlf1961)
Profile   Post #: 118
RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 9:55:14 PM   
jlf1961


Posts: 14840
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From: Somewhere Texas
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aswad

quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

I have a better plan, we send up Lindsey Lohan or Charlie Sheen with a giant baseball bat to just swat the incoming asteroid back into space.


I'll do you one better: we send up Charlie Sheen, step one.

Step two: we send Lindsey Lohan to me, and I'll introduce her to the baseball bat.



IWYW,
— Aswad.



Aswad, I wouldn't do that to you. Considering how much Lohan has been used, she has probably contracted diseases the CDC dont know of yet and the blood splatter would then contaminate you. Unless you have a biohazard suit.

_____________________________

Boy, it sure would be nice if we had some grenades, don't you think?

You cannot control who comes into your life, but you can control which airlock you throw them out of.

Paranoid Paramilitary Gun Loving Conspiracy Theorist AND EQUAL OPPORTUNI

(in reply to Aswad)
Profile   Post #: 119
RE: Doomsday is coming! Or is it? - 12/2/2012 10:24:29 PM   
Aswad


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

Aswad, I wouldn't do that to you. Considering how much Lohan has been used, she has probably contracted diseases the CDC dont know of yet and the blood splatter would then contaminate you. Unless you have a biohazard suit.


Will a self contained airsupply, positive pressure suit suffice?

If so, I should have no problem, and the manner of introduction between her and the baseball bat that I had in mind is one that shouldn't cause any blood splatter if the lube is doing what it's supposed to, and probably not even if I omit the lube altogether. ETA: And the cost of a biosafety level 4 suit could no doubt be recouped by selling a video of the whole ordeal.

IWYW,
— Aswad.


< Message edited by Aswad -- 12/2/2012 10:29:16 PM >

_____________________________

"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.


(in reply to jlf1961)
Profile   Post #: 120
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