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Kirata -> RE: If North Korea fires off a missile... (4/13/2013 5:29:22 AM)
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~ FR ~
On the not so humorous side, satellite imagery confirms that the DPRK has elevated at least one missile launcher. The report did not mention whether there was a missile on the rail. However, an unconfirmed report attributed to a U.S. intelligence offical indicates that one or more missiles have been detected being fueled.
This would be consistent with the launchers being elevated. The missiles are more safely fueled in raised position. If the missiles have been fueled, they will have to be launched within days due to the unstable and corrosive nature of the fuel.
TV Asahi in Seoul has reported the South's detection of a large amount of telemetry from the DPRK. The activation of tracking radars and telemetry for testing and calibration is consistent with a planned launch.
However, these reports are also consistent with an ordinary missile test. The DPRK has the ability to launch mobile missles with very little risk of detection should it wish to do so. Unfortunately, the state of mind of the North's leaders is difficult to assess.
Open sources reveal that the DPRK contacted the EU asking about assistance in case of conflict. It is not clear whether they were asking if the EU would assist them, or whether they were asking if it would assist the U.S. The request is disturbing in either case, because it is delusional to think that the EU would either help them or reveal it's military plans to them.
If the DRPK launches a missile test over the South, an interception will be treated as an interference in its affairs and an attack on the DPRK itself. If ballistics indicate a splashdown outside the South's territory, and the test is ignored, the DPRK will boast that it can penetrate the South's air space with impunity because the enemy fears its power.
However, they will not have the opportunity for such a boast. Indications that the DPRK has reached a point in miniaturizing its nuclear devices to where they are missile deliverable will require a shoot-down. An air-burst detonation over the South will not be risked.
The best determination of the DPRK's intentions will be come from satellite surveillance of the country at night. At present, they are keeping their factories open until midnight. As long as the factories are operating, the DPRK has not mobilized the five million factory workers who form its army reserve and is not prepared for war.
I will not be linking a source.
K.
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