njlauren -> RE: Evils of colonialism and 'post-colonialism'. (6/26/2013 5:37:26 PM)
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ORIGINAL: Aswad quote:
ORIGINAL: Phydeaux China averages 1/4 the per capita income of the US. Average is pointless. The typical Chinese household has half the income of the typical US household. quote:
China is an environmental disaster. They're also taking steps to deal with this, such as investing heavily in nuclear power and researching thorium power. Also, the US isn't exactly a model of environmental awareness or sustainable anything. quote:
Much of china's population is illiterate, and china's social institutions have not kept pace with the transition from third to first world economy. Don't mistake China for a homogenous country. Mainland China has a literacy rate of 98%, compared to the USA having 99% and Norway having 100%, so mainland China isn't further behind the USA than the USA is behind Norway. All 3 of them are doing great. However, the Tibet autonomous region has a literacy of only 62%, and several of the administrative divisions (e.g. Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mongolia) are in the mid 90s, pulling down the average. You already pointed out the aging population, and I'm fairly certain the rural and elderly population account for most of the illiteracy. Social inequality is the main issue here, and it's equally present in the USA, where the typical household income is one sixth of the average household income. Tibet isn't going to look anything like Beijing for the forseeable future, and this is to be expected. For comparison, if Israel were to integrate the Palestinian population, the load on the Israeli infrastructure would double overnight, completely overwhelming it. China has far fewer challenges to meet on this point than either of those two countries. quote:
On top of that, china is sitting on a real estate bubble the likes of which the world has never seen. You must never have been to Norway. The world has definitely seen the likes of it. quote:
And despite china's rapid militarization, it has nowhere near the military capability of the soviet union, let alone the US. Carrier targetted ICBMs or not. It has nuclear, and lacks the ambition of being world police. Thus, what it has is sufficient for its needs. quote:
Much of china's rapid progress as been the capturing of low hanging fruit. Actually, this was true, of a phase in Chinese history, but that phase ended while Latin was still a living language, ages ago. They expanded more than we did, early on, and so exhausted their surface resources before they developed the tech to harness subsurface resources. Later, we contributed our tech and lifted them out of that slump. Now, they're no longer in that position, and have what they need to keep going. As such, currently, while China has a ways to go in some areas, it has secured dominance in several key areas that will shape the future. Have you ever visited the Shēnzèn special economic zone? IWYW, — Aswad. China is facing big problems and they won't be easy to solve. China's economic growth has been based on what China traditionally has had, large populations of cheap labor that can do amazing things, like the Great Wall of China. In modern times, they have done well because with a country of over a billion people, where 2/3rd of them live in poverty (estimated about 800 million), companies found they could move there and manufacture cheaply, with dirt cheap wages, and they didn't have to employ modern methods, they could use hundred year old techniques with relatively crude methods and do it much cheaper, because of the labor. Even now, typical wages in manufacturing in China are about 50c an hour, no benefits, and that is nowhere near half the typical wage in the US (officially the typical salary is around 45k US). The problem is now workers there have moved beyond 19th century early industrial revolution ideas of working and they want more. Chinese workers are holding the US owner of a factory hostage because they are afraid of being laid off, and even with China's plan to resettle hundreds of millions from poor, rural regions to the city areas, their costs are rising and they can't get away with competing on cheap labor.....but there is a catch, to become more efficient (in terms of productivity, china is on the low end of the totem pole) means making things more efficiently, but that means less labor, something China decidedly doesn't want.....and export only doesn't fly, which is another big problem they have, cheap wage states can't build an internal economy. Sure, China has a lot of well off people, but they are a tiny percentage of the population (Chinas population is 4x the US's, so even a small percent being well off is a lot of people), but it is skewed. Income inequality is a problem all over, but in China it is a very sore point. The wealthiest people in China, who control a lot of the country's wealth, get that way through ties to the government and corruption, and it is not very beneficial to China's future that it be this way. There is a lot of resentment, and despite the government trying to crack down, it hasn't done much, and while they try to suppress this, people in China aren't dumb, they know people in other countries are buying Ipods and so forth, and want them for themselves. Corruption is endemic and it makes operating their difficult. The biggest problem they face is cultural. Right now China's R and D is pretty much industrial espionage, people doing business in China, joint ventures, expect to get ripped off (a Chinese auto company that works with toyota, for example, completely copied Toyota's synergy drive, and then had the balls to try and patent it outside the country..meanwhile China doesn't recognize Toyota's patents).....most of their R and D is spent cracking into computer systems overseas to steal industrial secrets. The reason they do this is simple, the oppressive government with their mania for order and fear of the future means a culture that is afraid of new things, and you can't innovate like that. Friend of mine was involved in a joint venture with a Chinese company, and he was amazed when they came up with this elaborate roadmap of a technology they were trying to develop, and they had not just milestones, but breakthroughs, carefully plotted out.....problem with that is, you don't control innovation, and planning for breakthroughs is an oxymoron. There has been a lot said about the 'sea turtles', Chinese students who study in the west, then go home to China, lot of them end up going back when they realize how oppressive the culture is in labs and such, with some bureaucrat dictating how and where they do things. It has nothing to do with intelligence or creativity, it has to do with a bad system of government and education, that cherishes order and rote over creativity and change. Even the claims of literacy are dubious, those figures come from the Chinese government. I work with a number of Chinese immigrants, who go back home a lot, and they said those numbers are exagerrated, that get out of the cities and a lot of the people are barely literate, if at all. Their banking system is also suspect, in part because it is so secretive, as bad as the banks are in Europe and the US, they at least have some reporting requirements, in China, that is literally a state secret. From reading between the lines, I suspect they have a major meltdown that is going to happen, and if anything, may be worse then what happened here and in Europe, because just so much has been buried for too long... They aren't unsolvable problems, but their current system is cracking, and not just at the edges. Though it has its own problems, India is poised to take over the low wage markets, assuming they can fix their infrastructure, China in many ways is Monaco compared to India with its problems and so forth. Among other things, no great country can exist as a place reliant strictly on low wages, and it requires developing an internal economy, one where they can produce things their own people need and can afford, which doesn't work in a 19th century economy like China's is de facto. I was reading about the steel being used on the new Bay Bridge, they said the guy working in the steel mills worked for 50c an hour, 16 hours a day at times, 6 or 7 days a week.......you can't predicate a modern economy on those kind of wages.
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