SadistDave -> RE: Republican Readies Constitutional Amendment To Ban Gay Marriage (6/29/2013 1:49:06 AM)
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ORIGINAL: dcnovice quote:
he Constitutional Amendment to ban Gay Marriage on a Federal level will NOT pass. Probably not. But it's a great fund-raising tool for both parties. We could have a pool to predict how long it will take for the number of GOP gay-marriage-ban-amendment attempts to outstrip the number of Obamacare-repeal efforts. 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection in 2014. If the Republicans gain 7 seats in the Senate, they regain control. As long as the Democrats can keep control of the Senate, there is absolutely no way a Constitutional Amendment would pass. There don't appear to be any real surprises in the House, which will probably remain in the GOPs control. In 15 out of the last 17 mid-term elections, the opposition party (to the sitting President) has either gained or retained control of the House of Representatives. I mention this, because the GOP has already demonstrated their willingness to vote on bills repeatedly until the Senate is willing to vote on them/pass them. Anyone who is paying attention to the current political games being played might be better off to consider anything that happens in The House of Representatives from now until mid-terms to be a "test vote". Knowing full well that Dingy Harry won't even allow a vote on the issue, having the vote in the House now will allow them to guage support they might have in a GOP controlled Senate in 2014. I submit that if the GOP manages to hold the House and regain the Senate in 2014, there is a very real chance that a ban on gay marriage could become a reality. Since not all of the states who recognize gay marriage do so by choice, an amendment could concievably be ratified by enough states to pass. For instance in California, the ban on gay marriage was voted into law by the majority of the citizens and overturned by the court. If put to a popular vote for a Constitutional Amendment, Californians would probably once again support the ban. -SD-
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