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How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/2/2013 8:48:18 PM   
DarkSteven


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Status: offline 		TheHeretic started a post alluding to "Team America - World Police", in which he alluded to the fact that many Americans have an idea that the US has a birthright to police the world and act to preserve our interests.

Well, that's what comes of being THE superpower.

It's inevitable that China will overtake us in terms of economic power, and I expect Asia to be the scene of significant economic and political changes ahead. It seems natural that China will begin to police the world in ITS way.

I'm feeling kinda uncomfortable with that. Other thoughts?

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/2/2013 9:06:41 PM   
DesideriScuri


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven
TheHeretic started a post alluding to "Team America - World Police", in which he alluded to the fact that many Americans have an idea that the US has a birthright to police the world and act to preserve our interests.
Well, that's what comes of being THE superpower.
It's inevitable that China will overtake us in terms of economic power, and I expect Asia to be the scene of significant economic and political changes ahead. It seems natural that China will begin to police the world in ITS way.
I'm feeling kinda uncomfortable with that. Other thoughts?


I trust China less than I trust the US to be World Police. Much of that rests on my lack of trust for their socialist style of government and a potentially tin-foil-cap fear of retribution from the rest of the world through political maneuvers.

I firmly believe there doesn't need to be one Nation "World Police." Each country should take care of it's own issues and regional agreements should suffice to handle regional conflicts. The UN could, realistically, be the World Police, but there would have to be solid safeguards that prevent any nation, regional alliance, the UN, etc., from being able to dictate political styles, standards, etc. within any particular Nation.




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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/2/2013 9:10:43 PM   
EdBowie


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Status: offline 		A few years back the Premier made the declaration (in reference to the Canal Zone, Tibet, and Taiwan) that 'any place on Earth where Chinese people (Han) live, belongs to the PRC'.

Except of course, that keeping a populace as massive as China's settled and productive is proving to be easier said than done internally, never mind extending physical dominion over the rest of the world.

The Empires that crumbled in the past, were amassed acre by acre in the feudal (agrarian) and profit by profit in the mercantile days... which are long gone. The industrial age neo-colonialism that underpins much of today's geopolitics is also going the way of the buggy whip.

There's a difference between history repeating, and re-runs.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/2/2013 9:35:00 PM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: EdBowie

Except of course, that keeping a populace as massive as China's settled and productive is proving to be easier said than done internally, never mind extending physical dominion over the rest of the world.



A factor that I had overlooked. Keeping control internally must be done first. This actually makes Syria tricky for Obama because he's overseeing such a fragmented country. Even FDR needed, way back when, to have Pearl Harbor and his "day of infamy" speech to galvanize the US in WWII.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/2/2013 9:43:17 PM   
TheHeretic


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Status: offline 		I think we have to take it as a given, Steve. I won't throw a blanket of approval over how they might choose to do it, but it is going to happen. I'd be perfectly fine with them deciding to embark on some regime change adventurism in North Korea. I've even suggested (possibly a bit less than half-joking) that we "sell" Afghanistan to them.

Consider also the surplus male population created by the one child policy. Killing them off isn't the only option, but if China is actively promoting homosexuality, it hasn't made into any of my news feeds.


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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/2/2013 10:18:40 PM   
RottenJohnny


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Status: offline 		I think it's going be some time yet before we need to worry about China having a global military presence. Especially if we continue to maintain so many bases around the world. If we have to worry about them being anywhere other than Asia, it's most likely going to be Africa first. However, my optimism would like to think that even if they do start floating a dozen carrier groups around the world they might actually do so in cooperation with us.

But relating to the other post the OP mentions, this is exactly why we should be paying attention to how we interact with other nations now that we are considered the one global superpower (a term that I personally reject). If we destroy our reputation now that we are "center stage" it will only allow the Chinese to become more influential than we may want them to be.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/2/2013 11:19:20 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven
It's inevitable that China will overtake us in terms of economic power, and I expect Asia to be the scene of significant economic and political changes ahead. It seems natural that China will begin to police the world in ITS way.

It is not inevitable that China will do much of anything positive in the next century. Fundamentally they are screwed by the demographics they created.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/14/opinion/china-challenges-one-child-brooks/index.html

In short there are far too few young women to go around so over the next few decades there will be a growing cohort of men, numbering in the hundreds of millions by 2030, who cannot find a mate. This is likely to bring the entre society down if a solution is not found.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/2/2013 11:26:56 PM   
Kirata


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

over the next few decades there will be a growing cohort of men, numbering in the hundreds of millions by 2030, who cannot find a mate. This is likely to bring the entre society down if a solution is not found.

A war might work nicely then.

K.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 4:08:46 AM   
tweakabelle


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quote:

I firmly believe there doesn't need to be one Nation "World Police." Each country should take care of it's own issues and regional agreements should suffice to handle regional conflicts. The UN could, realistically, be the World Police, but there would have to be solid safeguards that prevent any nation, regional alliance, the UN, etc., from being able to dictate political styles, standards, etc. within any particular Nation.


In some respects there is a 'World Police' already in existence. Co-operation between the various security and intelligence services of countries has reached unprecedented levels, a level that far exceeds the scope of the word 'co-operation' to describe it.

In other areas of transnational policing, especially in the area of white collar or financial crime the levels of co-operation are far lower. Thus large scale financial frauds embezzlement tax 'havens' money laundering tax evasion etc receive far fewer resources and less scrutiny, with predictable outcomes. In yet other areas, eg dumping of hazardous waste in 3rd world countries, the levels of co-operation fall to nearly non-existent.

One obvious feature that emerges is that the intent and effectiveness of trans national policing are directly related to the political dangers that particular types of crime and criminal activities pose. In other words, the current ah hoc structure of the 'World Police' is already politicised. This must be turned around in any proposed 'World Police'. organisation for it to be successful.

Your suggestion that the " UN could, realistically, be the World Police" is a good one IMHO. However, the more successful types of criminal justice systems have found it useful to structurally separate prosecution of crime from both the investigators and the political decision-makers of the day (Govts etc). Political independence is a crucial feature that will make or break the effectiveness of trans-national policing.

Replicating this feature in any proposed formal "World Police" is (IMO) the best way to safeguard its integrity and ensure its success.

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 9/3/2013 4:15:02 AM >

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 5:42:05 AM   
Zonie63


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

TheHeretic started a post alluding to "Team America - World Police", in which he alluded to the fact that many Americans have an idea that the US has a birthright to police the world and act to preserve our interests.

Well, that's what comes of being THE superpower.

It's inevitable that China will overtake us in terms of economic power, and I expect Asia to be the scene of significant economic and political changes ahead. It seems natural that China will begin to police the world in ITS way.

I'm feeling kinda uncomfortable with that. Other thoughts?


I'm not sure that China would do that. Just because a nation is a (or THE) superpower, it doesn't necessarily follow that they would automatically take on the role of world's policeman. The only reason why the U.S. took on that role was because after WW2, the Anglo-French colonial hold on the world was collapsing, and the U.S. needed to move in as a stopgap to prevent communism from filling the power vacuum. The U.S. had an interest in maintaining Western hegemony throughout the world, and our policy of containment and interventionism was clearly designed for that purpose.

But since China is not currently allied with any other hegemonic powers in the world, unlike us, they have nothing to maintain and nothing to protect other than their own regional interests.

There also doesn't appear to be any meaningful direct threat to China at the moment, nor does that appear likely at any time in the foreseeable future. So, unlike us, the Chinese would be hard-pressed to find some sort of usable pretext for actually embarking on some plan to be the world's policeman. Since they can clearly see how badly such a role has worked out for America, they might learn from that and refrain from taking on such a role for themselves.

Also, the Chinese don't seem all that proactive about spreading their ideology - which they don't really have anymore anyway. They still call themselves "communist," but they're capitalists. They're not like the Soviets were. During the Cold War, the USA and USSR were like missionaries with competing ideologies and philosophies, trying to gain hearts and minds throughout the world. That doesn't seem to be how the Chinese operate; it's not their style.

Another factor is China's geographical position in the world and the relationships they have with countries in their own region. America's role in the World Wars and its subsequent role as world's policeman was only possible due to the fact that the U.S. had over 100 years to pacify its own region and exert hegemony over the Western Hemisphere. Apart from the Japanese balloon bombs (and Pearl Harbor, of course), not one bomb fell on U.S. soil during the World Wars, mainly because there were no countries close enough or with a long enough reach to be able to do much against us. We have a buffer of two oceans and a (mostly) pacified region around us, and this is what allows us to spread our forces around the world and exert our hegemony, as our own immediate territory is relatively safe from attack.

China doesn't really have that luxury. The only ally they have in their own region is North Korea. Their relationship with Russia seems to warming lately, but there's still a lot of bad blood between those two powers. China is still extremely resentful against Japan over World War II. They've also had friction with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries. In Malaysia, for example, 10% of the population is Chinese and wealthier than the rest of the population, which leads to a certain level of anti-Chinese sentiment. They also have territorial disputes with India over the Kashmir region, and an up-and-coming India could be China's next great rival. Not now, but perhaps 25-50 years from now.

Therefore, I'm not particularly worried about China becoming the world's policeman or exerting its hegemony any further than it already has. Their plate is quite full at the moment, and unlike our own government at present, they don't seem to suffer from Attention Deficit Disorder. They have a better historical memory than we do, and (also unlike us) they have shown that they're capable of learning from mistakes, both their own and others'.

< Message edited by Zonie63 -- 9/3/2013 5:50:02 AM >

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 6:03:00 AM   
tweakabelle


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From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline 		Zonie your points are all relevant.

China hasn't shown any signs of territorial expansion - if we exclude Tibet. Their history in relation to Hong Kong is revealing. Even though HK is indisputably part of mainland China, and was ceded to the UK after successful imperialist aggression against China, China chose to wait it out and regain the territory peacefully when the Treaty ceding it to the UK expired in 1997. Despite tensions it hasn't invaded Taiwan.

China's attitude to human rights is another story. There is scant evidence to suggest its attitude to political dissent is improving from a very low start. Dissidents routinely receive severe sentences for minor exhibitions of dissent. China executes more people annually than any other country. The rule of law in China might be best be described as variable. The Chinese show little interest in these critical issues internationally.

From where I sit, all the above makes it more important that effective standards in the area of human rights, and the establishment of the necessary institutions to protect and enforce those rights in Nation-States become the norm internationally before China inevitably establishes itself as pre-eminent Power on the planet.

Because there's going to be fat chance of it ever happening afterwards.



< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 9/3/2013 6:06:21 AM >

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 7:14:45 AM   
kdsub


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Status: offline 		I don't see China dominating world economics for a few reasons... they lack some natural resources and will have problems in the future with an emerging middle class. I do see them increasing their economic standing in the world to equal western Europe and perhaps the US but I don't see them dominating. We must all face facts, and this includes China...India...and all established and emerging economic powers... Globalization is here to stay. There is an abundance of cheap labor and cheap transportation in the world and economic competition will most likely keep any one economy from dominating

Butch

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 8:18:58 AM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

over the next few decades there will be a growing cohort of men, numbering in the hundreds of millions by 2030, who cannot find a mate. This is likely to bring the entre society down if a solution is not found.

A war might work nicely then.

K.


That's what I was thinking. :(

_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 9:12:14 AM   
MasterCaneman


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

over the next few decades there will be a growing cohort of men, numbering in the hundreds of millions by 2030, who cannot find a mate. This is likely to bring the entre society down if a solution is not found.

A war might work nicely then.

K.


That's what I was thinking. :(

The only way they could do that is to engage in a regional conflict. China does not possess the logistics train the US has developed over the past six decades to support overseas operations. It's one thing to fly in troops and equipment, another entirely to keep them armed, fed, and fueled. That's why we have aircraft carrier battle groups, to maintain seaborne supply lines. Air supply is nice, but can be thwarted by SAMs and other means.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 12:05:51 PM   
RottenJohnny


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterCaneman


quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

over the next few decades there will be a growing cohort of men, numbering in the hundreds of millions by 2030, who cannot find a mate. This is likely to bring the entre society down if a solution is not found.

A war might work nicely then.

K.


That's what I was thinking. :(

The only way they could do that is to engage in a regional conflict. China does not possess the logistics train the US has developed over the past six decades to support overseas operations. It's one thing to fly in troops and equipment, another entirely to keep them armed, fed, and fueled. That's why we have aircraft carrier battle groups, to maintain seaborne supply lines. Air supply is nice, but can be thwarted by SAMs and other means.

Agreed. If China is seriously considering any immediate ambitions I don't think it goes much beyond Taiwan or North Korea at this point despite any rhetoric we might hear from them. They might be Communists but they're not stupid. They know that as soon as they push outward the rest of the world is going to jump on their actions. Besides, I think they're still in the mode of trying to consolidate the gains they've achieved in the past 15 years, starting with the return of Hong Kong to their recent economic boom.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 1:33:23 PM   
Yachtie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

over the next few decades there will be a growing cohort of men, numbering in the hundreds of millions by 2030, who cannot find a mate. This is likely to bring the entre society down if a solution is not found.

A war might work nicely then.

K.



Have to, as the alternative of importing foreign women would be nationalistically catastrophic.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 1:42:14 PM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		This time, there will be Japanese comfort women, I am gonna see about becoming an ex-pat.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 3:47:58 PM   
LookieNoNookie


Posts: 12216
Joined: 8/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

TheHeretic started a post alluding to "Team America - World Police", in which he alluded to the fact that many Americans have an idea that the US has a birthright to police the world and act to preserve our interests.

Well, that's what comes of being THE superpower.

It's inevitable that China will overtake us in terms of economic power, and I expect Asia to be the scene of significant economic and political changes ahead. It seems natural that China will begin to police the world in ITS way.

I'm feeling kinda uncomfortable with that. Other thoughts?


I've always felt uncomfortable with us telling the world how to live their lives.

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RE: How will you take Chinese policing? - 9/3/2013 5:06:14 PM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

over the next few decades there will be a growing cohort of men, numbering in the hundreds of millions by 2030, who cannot find a mate. This is likely to bring the entre society down if a solution is not found.

A war might work nicely then.

K.

Have to, as the alternative of importing foreign women would be nationalistically catastrophic.

I don't see either alternative as viable. killing off more than a hundred million young men by 2030 doesn't strike me as feasible without getting them nuked. As to importing women that would simply shift the problem.


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