Nosathro
Posts: 3319
Joined: 9/25/2005
From: Orange County, California
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Kirata
quote:
ORIGINAL: butternutsquash
You've had the evidence debunking this available to you for years.
However, the report of President Obama's Committee on Priorities for a Public Health Research Agenda to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-Related Violence concluded:
Studies that directly assessed the effect of actual defensive uses of guns (i.e., incidents in which a gun was ‘used’ by the crime victim in the sense of attacking or threatening an offender) have found consistently lower injury rates among gun-using crime victims compared with victims who used other self-protective strategies. ~Source
It's always convenient to assume that studies with findings to your liking used appropriate measures and evaluated the data in a correct an unbiased manner. But needless to say, there are always other studies with different findings that claim to debunk the former. Sometimes you have to get your hands dirty and actually look for yourself. Let's take a case in point:
The State of Florida publishes crime statistics dating back to 1971. Florida became a "shall issue" concealed carry state in 1987. So we have 17 years of data before the law was passed, and 25 years of data since. In the years from 1971 to 1987 inclusive Florida's total crime rate rose 49.6%, violent crime went up 86.4%, and forcible rape offenses more than doubled.
When we compare 2012, the latest year for which data is available, to the 1987 rates we find that total crime fell by 55.1%, violent crime dropped 52.7%, and forcible rape offenses were down by 44.9%. More interestingly, attempted forcible rape plummeted 84.4%. It would seem the rapists were taking more care to choose likely to be defenseless targets.
Now, crime in the United States has been dropping since the early 90's. So the question arises as to how much (if any) of Florida's drop in crime can be credited to concealed carry and how much was due to the general trend toward lower crime rates. Or as the question is usually put, how much was due to something else? But I have to ask, why the embedded assumption that it was "something else"?
In 1986, only 8 states had "shall issue" concealed carry laws, and 1 allowed unrestricted carry. By five years later, in 1991, the number of "shall issue" states had risen to 16. Five years later again, in 2001, 31 states had "shall issue" concealed carry laws. By 2006, 37 states had gone to "shall issue," and the number of unrestricted carry states rose to 2. Today in 2013 we have a total of 37 states with "shall issue" concealed carry, and 5 that now allow unrestricted carry.
So, there seems little basis on which to assume that our national drop in crime rates was due to "something else". Granted there are other factors involved in crime rates, and states vary. But that opens up a whole different subject. I know of nothing that tracks the overall trend as clearly and unambiguously as the spread of concealed carry.
As a closing note, the percentages above are my calculations from the data and any errors are mine alone. The sources are here:
http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/getdoc/f089698a-26f4-4899-9695-7c2dbc41f674/1971_fwd_sex_offenses.aspx
http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/getdoc/d75b9423-91ea-4704-86c8-5beb8c50fb61/1971_fwd_totalcrime.aspx
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rtc.gif
K.
What President Obama really did:
"In January 2012, President Obama issued 23 Executive Orders directing federal agencies to improve knowledge of the causes of firearm violence, what might help prevent it, and how to minimize its burden on public health."
http://www.iom.edu/~/media/Files/Report%20Files/2013/Firearm-Violence/FirearmViolence_RB.pdf
Now according your link of Sex Offenses in Florida it shows in 1987 the number of Rape by Force was 4,823, it peaked in 1997 at 7,142 then started a decline, in 2012 the number 4,960.
The total violent crime in Florida in 1987 was 123,030 and continued to climb peaking in 1993 at 161,789 it declined until 2001 when it went up again from 128,041 to 130,323. Again it went down until 2005 when it went from 125,825 to 129,501 and continued to raise in 2007 to 131,781 then went back down. Also to note that Florida is in the top 10 most violent states, Alaska is number 1, all the other States in the top 10 are "shall issue", so much for that bogus thinking.
Hardly proof that crime decreased by your claim that concealed weapons decreased crime. It is also noted that the FBI now reports violent crime for 2012 increased by 0.7 per cent the second year crime increased.
You know Kirata you use this so many times and each time it been proven wrong, you need to get new material this stuff is old and not funny anymore.
< Message edited by Nosathro -- 11/6/2013 11:51:40 PM >
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RE: ***Unmoderated Gun rights debate - Self Defense to ... - 
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