RE: High unemployment is a good thing (Full Version)

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JeffBC -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 6:38:39 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
If no one is willing to work for a particular wage (because it is too low), the employer will have to increase the wage offered. That's how it works.

No, that's not how it works. Come on DS. You know better. You are assuming some form of free market in play where the workers have choices. But if ALL the jobs are $5 an hour now how much choice does that worker have? That's what we are looking at here (obviously in extreme). That is economic slavery. All you need to do is to make an economy where jobs do not put food on the table and suddenly you have a population of slaves.

Conversely, tell me how you define the worth of the worker's output. OK, so they have a much higher minimum wage where I live. Because of that, fast food is more expensive. But you know what? EVERYONE has more money (in the broad brush stroke sense). So people still go and buy those hamburgers. But now there is choice. They can buy the hamburger or not the need for govt. assistance is minimal because people can live on a minimum wage -- not well, but they can.

In your model, as long as govt. assistance is available, the employers can drive down wages as far as they choose and all that happens is the government picks up the slack. Since in that poor, poor economy you are envisioning the only people with any money are the capital interests they pay all the taxes so they basically run everything. Hey wait... that sounds sort of familiar.




DesideriScuri -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 8:18:42 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
If no one is willing to work for a particular wage (because it is too low), the employer will have to increase the wage offered. That's how it works.

No, that's not how it works. Come on DS. You know better. You are assuming some form of free market in play where the workers have choices. But if ALL the jobs are $5 an hour now how much choice does that worker have? That's what we are looking at here (obviously in extreme <--- At least someone understood!! [:D]). That is economic slavery. All you need to do is to make an economy where jobs do not put food on the table and suddenly you have a population of slaves.
Conversely, tell me how you define the worth of the worker's output. OK, so they have a much higher minimum wage where I live. Because of that, fast food is more expensive. But you know what? EVERYONE has more money (in the broad brush stroke sense). So people still go and buy those hamburgers. But now there is choice. They can buy the hamburger or not the need for govt. assistance is minimal because people can live on a minimum wage -- not well, but they can.
In your model, as long as govt. assistance is available, the employers can drive down wages as far as they choose and all that happens is the government picks up the slack. Since in that poor, poor economy you are envisioning the only people with any money are the capital interests they pay all the taxes so they basically run everything. Hey wait... that sounds sort of familiar.


How do I define the worth of a worker's output? I don't. That's up to the business to do. It has to do with the value of the worker's input within the system of the business. Which is worth more to a company, the guy that designs the foundation for a building, or the guy that is cleaning the cement of the tools before it dries? Which one demands higher skills and which one offers higher wages?

How many people are on minimum wage in your area, Jeff?

http://bls.gov/ncs/ocs/sp/nctb1489.txt

25% of workers in the US make $11.17 or less (10% make $8.50 or less).
The Median hourly wage in the US is $16.73.

http://bls.gov/opub/ted/2013/ted_20130325.htm

[image]http://bls.gov/opub/ted/2013/images/ted_20130325a.png[/image]

[image]http://bls.gov/opub/ted/2013/images/ted_20130325b.png[/image]

    quote:

    These data are from the Current Population Survey. For more information, see “Characteristics of Minimum Wage Workers: 2012” ... . Data are for wage and salary workers age 16 and over and refer to earnings on a person's sole or principal job. Hourly earnings for hourly paid workers do not include overtime pay, commissions, or tips received. The estimates of the numbers of minimum and subminimum wage workers pertain to workers paid at hourly rates; salaried and other workers are excluded. All self-employed persons also are excluded, regardless of whether their businesses are incorporated.


What is difficult to determine, is what "hourly rate equivalent" is earned by those who get tips and commissions. Even taking that into account, 4.7% of all hourly workers are being paid at or below minimum wage, the largest set of that group is the teen group, who tend to have the least work skills. As the ages of groups rise, the number of workers at or below the minimum wage drops, until you reach the "retirement age" group.

http://bls.gov/cps/minwage2012.pdf

The total number of people working hourly rates that are married, with spouses present, is 46.4% of all hourly workers, and include 21.9% of all the people working at or below the minimum wage.

65% of all hourly workers making minimum wage or less have never been married, and 12.9% have an "other" marital status (divorced, widowed, etc.)

quote:

  • Among hourly paid workers age 16 and over, about 10 percent of those who had less than a high school diploma
    earned the federal minimum wage or less, compared with about 4 percent of those who had a high school
    diploma (with no college) and about 2 percent of college graduates. (See table 6.)
    ...

  • About 11 percent of part-time workers (persons who usually work less than 35 hours per week) were paid the
    federal minimum wage or less, compared with about 2 percent of full-time workers. (See table 1 and table 9.)




JeffBC -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 8:51:37 AM)

(Didn't come up with easy answers to that line of reasoning DS... Min Wage here has a lot of components and I didn't find a handy inforgraphic)
edited to add
OK, I feel like I punted on your line of reasoning... partly because I wasn't following it at all and partly because I didn't come up with easy numbers. Let me know if it can be simplified or else I'll go back and do the legwork when I have a chance and answer the question.

-------------

But help me out here DS. I can't remember the exact number but the US govt... that is to say you and I, are subsidizing a vast swath of the Walton's payroll. The people who work there could not afford to live were it not for welfare subsidies. So I'm paying for the Walton's to get wealthier. I dislike that.

Now, I can think of two options.

A) Pull all the subsidies
OK, so what happens is, in theory, the people now quit these jobs because it is unsustainable. But what happens next? In a war of attrition like that you and I both know who's going to win. The Walton's could never make another penny starting now and live better than kings for the rest of eternity. In the mean time, the workers are starving TONIGHT. Sure, in some theoretical economics model eventually prices would fall, yada yada. But long before then there'd be rioting and looting in the streets.

B) Enforce higher wages
This makes "a living wage" a requirement of a job (which is kind of common sense). The Walton's are required to build business plans which actually work in the real world without govt. subsidies. Prices will undoubtedly rise, to some degree, in the walmarts but since everyone has more money it's just not that big of a deal. The walton's are still fabulously wealthy by any measure. This also raises the cost of american goods overseas... a strong argument against free trade in my mind. Free trade was a doomed idea from the beginning although it appealed to the humanitarian in me for a while before I remembers the lessons of history.

For all of your charts and graphs, reality remains and it is staring you in the face. People are getting poorer and poorer day by day in the united states. The wealth is being concentrated in a smaller and smaller group. Would you put any reins at all on the existing power interests or is it "straight to slavery" in your world? Given that you are NOT in the group of people bubbling to the top, do you have a plan for yourself because you're not immune from these country and global trends.

Do you have a third option? Surely you understand that "trickle down economics" was a fantasy from the very beginning. When the rich get richer they do not give some of their money to the poor. Rather, they use that money to consolidate their power base and get richer still. What would you do about the fact that the middle class is non-existent in the US if we were to go by historical standards for "middle class"? More to the point, what are you planning on doing about the fact that YOU ARE FUCKED if the trends continue -- and they are not simply continuing but accelerating -- thank you Obama.




PeonForHer -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 11:57:11 AM)

quote:

B) Enforce higher wages
This makes "a living wage" a requirement of a job (which is kind of common sense).


Instead of that, why not allow a more full-blooded dose of freedom in the market place? That is, allow workers to combine freely into unions, then also encourage them in their the freedom to exert full pressure on employers by means of, for instance, strikes and closed shop arrangements? I know lots of employers don't like this, but they're just un-American freedom-haters, so they can just be slammed into jail where they belong.




mnottertail -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 1:04:28 PM)

Well, Adam Smith is a prophet without honor in his own country, OI?   LOL.




DesideriScuri -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 1:10:45 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: PeonForHer
quote:

B) Enforce higher wages
This makes "a living wage" a requirement of a job (which is kind of common sense).

Instead of that, why not allow a more full-blooded dose of freedom in the market place? That is, allow workers to combine freely into unions, then also encourage them in their the freedom to exert full pressure on employers by means of, for instance, strikes and closed shop arrangements? I know lots of employers don't like this, but they're just un-American freedom-haters, so they can just be slammed into jail where they belong.


Unionization is allowed, pretty much anywhere, PFH (I'd prefer to not call you Peon because I'm not Her, and I don't know you). Unions can't negotiate into forcing union membership to work at a particular location in "Right to Work" states. Even in "Right to Work" states, you are still free to join the Union, and Unions are allowed to attempt to Unionize and then negotiate.






DesideriScuri -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 1:31:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
A) Pull all the subsidies
OK, so what happens is, in theory, the people now quit these jobs because it is unsustainable. But what happens next? In a war of attrition like that you and I both know who's going to win. The Walton's could never make another penny starting now and live better than kings for the rest of eternity. In the mean time, the workers are starving TONIGHT. Sure, in some theoretical economics model eventually prices would fall, yada yada. But long before then there'd be rioting and looting in the streets.


There is a need for the subsidies, though, Jeff. There are plenty of people out there who are not capable of sustaining themselves. Those people need (and should get) our help.

quote:

B) Enforce higher wages
This makes "a living wage" a requirement of a job (which is kind of common sense). The Walton's are required to build business plans which actually work in the real world without govt. subsidies. Prices will undoubtedly rise, to some degree, in the walmarts but since everyone has more money it's just not that big of a deal. The walton's are still fabulously wealthy by any measure. This also raises the cost of american goods overseas... a strong argument against free trade in my mind. Free trade was a doomed idea from the beginning although it appealed to the humanitarian in me for a while before I remembers the lessons of history.


That will only make matters worse, as the number of the lowest paying jobs will be reduced, pushing unemployment higher. As long as prices don't rise enough to make the new "minimum wage" not an actual increase in real wages, then there might be more money in everyone's hands. If prices rise to the point that the minimum wage has the same buying power as the old minimum wage, then you're not doing anyone a damn bit of good, in fact, you'll be hurting those on fixed incomes.

quote:

For all of your charts and graphs, reality remains and it is staring you in the face. People are getting poorer and poorer day by day in the united states. The wealth is being concentrated in a smaller and smaller group. Would you put any reins at all on the existing power interests or is it "straight to slavery" in your world? Given that you are NOT in the group of people bubbling to the top, do you have a plan for yourself because you're not immune from these country and global trends.
Do you have a third option? Surely you understand that "trickle down economics" was a fantasy from the very beginning. When the rich get richer they do not give some of their money to the poor. Rather, they use that money to consolidate their power base and get richer still. What would you do about the fact that the middle class is non-existent in the US if we were to go by historical standards for "middle class"? More to the point, what are you planning on doing about the fact that YOU ARE FUCKED if the trends continue -- and they are not simply continuing but accelerating -- thank you Obama.


The poor and downtrodden minimum wage earners aren't, generally, family workers, but single teens. If someone can't show that he or she has more skills than those required for a minimum wage job, then why should they get more money? If we move the minimum wage to $11.17/hour (used only because that is the cutoff for the bottom 25th percentile), then 25% of all hourly wage earners will get a raise. What happens to the person making $11.25, $12.00, or $15.00 per hour? Either you have to give them commensurate raises or you've now devalued the skills and/or experience they have worked to gain.

The rich certainly do give to the poor.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2013/04/24/poor-middle-class-and-rich-who-gives-and-who-doesnt/

Some will point to the lower % of income given by the rich than by the poor, but they'll ignore that 70-80% of all charitable giving is done by the rich. And, before anyone (not saying you, Jeff, would have done this), but bringing up the Biblical story of the poor woman who gave her last penny as an offering was looked upon more highly than those who gave more, but didn't give their all, that's between them and their makers, not you (general) and I. When someone gets money from a charity, do they care if it came from 3% of someone's income, or 10% of someone's income?

Increasing the minimum wage will increase costs (which lowers the real wage amount of the rate increase) for everyone, which will also increase the level determined to be "poverty" level.




mnottertail -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 1:43:29 PM)

minimum wage is not the end of living wages. No freemarketing in your stuff, there. 




PeonForHer -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 1:51:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
PFH (I'd prefer to not call you Peon because I'm not Her, and I don't know you).


That's thoughtful of you, DS - seriously. Peon, peon, PFH - all the same to me, though.




Marini -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 1:52:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

How's that ? Well, the corporation being charged with the fiduciary responsibility to maximize profits, would then be able to reduce payroll. Payroll is among the corp's. highest expenses so.....? The company could reduce its search for communist slave labor, reducing costs even further.

The highest possible unemployment would be a great profit center and a win-win situation. Well, win for the corp., win for the investors but not such a win for labor but then...who cares about them ?

I mean think about it, 20-25% unemployment would have say 8000 people applying for one $12.50/hr. janitorial position. Well, wait...we already have that. So then why not offer say $9/hr or hey, yea, that's the ticket...reduce all jobs to minimum wage and that way we could get back down to say 15% unemployment.

What's that you say...didn't slave have jobs ? Well, yes they did and look how well that turned out...for the slave owners...history's greatest profit center. I mean fuck the slaves, we are here to make some money and this means...more money and that's all that matters in the American society, right ? Well, I do have a point right ?

I am late to the party, what a great thread.
I think 20% unemployment in the future is not a stretch at all.




Marini -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 2:09:33 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: egern

So, if you can force people to work for a wage no one can live on, that is ok?


Bingo, hence the op comparing these circumstances to slavery.




JeffBC -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/13/2013 9:03:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
The rich certainly do give to the poor.

OK, that is just so wildly out of touch with reality that I don't know what to say. Sure sure, after massive theft they return a few pennies here and there. Am I to be impressed? Wealth is concentrating. That is the problem. Unless they start giving enough back that it STOPS concentrating then it really doesn't matter how charitable they are. It also doesn't make them good people or decent human beings.

quote:

Increasing the minimum wage will increase costs (which lowers the real wage amount of the rate increase) for everyone, which will also increase the level determined to be "poverty" level.

This part is more complex (we need to do this is skype some time because I can't help the feeling that voice would make it a lot easier to cover the nuances... glass of beer in the backyard would be even better). As is always true I'm open to suggestions but if the concentration of wealth is not stopped and preferably reversed then BADTHINGS(tm) happen. What were you planning on doing to stop the executives from allocating themselves ever larger portions of the productivity pie and the bankers simply holding us all at gunpoint?




Phydeaux -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/14/2013 8:33:56 AM)

I don't generally chime in on the liberal side of anything.

Law is to protect life, and property.
The rich have life - but generally have more property.

Generally then, law predominantly benefits the rich. Liberal ideas of government (more laws) as a way to help the poor are generally speaking smoke and mirrors to cover that laws cover those in power.

What are 50 year extensions to copyright law; or rejiggered medicines for additional coverage -but gifts to the rich. Why are the penalties for shooting a cop or an IRS agent more severe than shooting a homeless person?

Why do we pay for presidential libraries? Why do certain products enjoy preferential tariff rates?

Why do 96% of incumbents standing for reelection- get reelected?

Do you really think rich people go to jail because of gun laws?

Do you think the tax code helps rich people - or helps poor people? There are tens of thousands of pages of tax law. Who can exploit them better - rich people or poor people.

Do laws make one more free? (rhetorical).

Sure. Some law benefits everyone; some laws are good ideas. Food safety. Drug safety. But I hate big government precisely because I am in favor of people.

Three things I don't believe:
Big Govt.
Big Labor.
Big Business.





JeffBC -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/14/2013 9:15:17 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Three things I don't believe:
Big Govt.
Big Labor.
Big Business.

And in this you and I agree. In general it is my assessment that the bigger something is the more inhuman it becomes. I could talk about Walmart vs. the local clothing store. I could talk about federal govt. vs. local govt. For instance, while the fed was doubling down on occupy everywhere you looked it got quite a bit of support from local police chiefs. That's no surprise. In general, a leader who has actually seen my face is way more likely to care about me than some asshat with a big dopy grin and a penchant for power in the whitehouse.

This is a place where I agree with conservatives hands down. I have come to be huge on states rights and state (and below) government. I'd like to go back to the idea that there are a few enumerated things the federal government is reserved for and other than that, it has no job, no place, no standing or merit in any meaningful conversation.

That all being said, there are some projects which work best handled at the federal level and there are some "identity issues" that I suspect need to be handled federally. The trick is, of course, all of us coming to consensus on which ones those are.




JeffBC -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/14/2013 9:39:53 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
There is a need for the subsidies, though, Jeff. There are plenty of people out there who are not capable of sustaining themselves. Those people need (and should get) our help.

ROFL, just so you know I've come to decide I hate having these conversations with you because I suspect if you and I were tossed in a research cubicle for a week or two we'd end up agreeing on most everything. I think working from different sets of "facts" complicates these discussions since it sounds like we're not all that far apart on both problem identification and desired outcome.




DesideriScuri -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/14/2013 10:10:14 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
glass of beer in the backyard would be even better


Hmmm... interesting thought there. I do have some favorite US brews and know Canada has some excellent ones, too...

quote:

BADTHINGS(tm)


[:D]

quote:

What were you planning on doing to stop the executives from allocating themselves ever larger portions of the productivity pie and the bankers simply holding us all at gunpoint?


The problem you are describing doesn't mean others will make less. Is it bad that the top 5 richest men make as much as they do? How is that? It's not like there it's a zero sum game. Stock market wealth is not real wealth. It's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. If you have a bajillion GM stocks, if you can't sell them, what is the real value of those stocks?

I think you're coming at the $ = political power equation the wrong way. You'd rather spread the wealth. I would rather make money not equal political power. Getting government to not be for sale is better than spreading the wealth. Someone will always buy government, if it's for sale. If you reduce the top 10%'s wealth disparity, the disparity still exists, and their increased wealth will still sway government. Plus, it will still be in their best interest to lobby for favors to increase their wealth.




DesideriScuri -> RE: High unemployment is a good thing (11/14/2013 10:13:58 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
There is a need for the subsidies, though, Jeff. There are plenty of people out there who are not capable of sustaining themselves. Those people need (and should get) our help.

ROFL, just so you know I've come to decide I hate having these conversations with you because I suspect if you and I were tossed in a research cubicle for a week or two we'd end up agreeing on most everything. I think working from different sets of "facts" complicates these discussions since it sounds like we're not all that far apart on both problem identification and desired outcome.


As left as you claim yourself to be, and as right as I claim myself to be, we do agree on an awful lot of stuff.




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