RE: US Deficits / Debt (Full Version)

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mnottertail -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 10:46:32 AM)

*snicker*




DomKen -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 11:23:51 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
So many errors. Direct spending on the Iraq war as of end of last year was $757billion. Sooooo you're off by a factor of 3.

Lie by omission. The direct spending is not the whole thing. You left off the trillion we'll pay in interest on that 757 billion as well as the more than trillion we'll pay for care for the wounded. You also left off the replacement of lost equipment etc.

Suffice it to say that $4 trillion may be a lowball estimate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_cost_of_the_Iraq_War




DomKen -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 11:25:59 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: muhly22222


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: RottenJohnny

I won't defend what the Dems do but to be fair, the debt is the fault of every administration since we became a net debtor instead of a lender. Some people blame that on Reagan. Honestly, I don't know when it really began but either way, we're doomed if we can't force our leaders to adopt a budget that deals with it.



There is no argument it happened during the Reagan administration.


Actually, if I remember correctly, it started in the Van Buren administration. Andrew Jackson was the last president who managed to balance the budget. Though I will agree that the Reagan administration pushed America's budget to its limits...and they did so intentionally as a means of pushing the Soviet Union over the edge.

The nation has never actually not had any debt, IIRC, but we were a net creditor until Reagan.




papassion -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 11:50:07 AM)

America's official debt is over 17 trillion. But thats the tip of the Iceberg. America has promised its citizens tens of trillions in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits. Larry Kotlikoff, Professor of economics at Boston University puts America's total liabilities at a mind boggling 222 trillion! (to conceptualize a trillion. If you spent a dollar a second, it would take 32,688 YEARS to go thru ONE trillion.)

This is not due at once, but increasing portions will be as America's 80 million baby boomers retire. There is not a chance that America can pay this bill. We have a spending problem.




mnottertail -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 11:52:34 AM)

And we have had a revenue problem for nearly a century.




papassion -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 12:49:21 PM)

No problem. If you want the revenue to almost pay off the national debt, all you have to do, according to Mike Shedlock, from Global Economic Trend Analysis is, tax the profits from EVERY corporation in America and confiscate every single asset of the super wealthy (like Warren Buffet, Bill Gates) take the COMBINED salaries of ALL players in the NFL, Major League Baseball, the NBA and the NHL, cut military spending by 254 billion, and tax EVERYTHING people make above 250,000 at a 100% rate! That is unrealistic, but so is thinking America can keep borrowing trillions forever.




papassion -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 12:51:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: papassion

No problem. If you want the revenue to almost pay off the national debt, all you have to do, according to Mike Shedlock, from Global Economic Trend Analysis is, tax the profits from EVERY corporation in America and confiscate every single asset of the super wealthy (like Warren Buffet, Bill Gates) take the COMBINED salaries of ALL players in the NFL, Major League Baseball, the NBA and the NHL, cut military spending by 254 billion, and tax EVERYTHING people make above 250,000 at a 100% rate! That is unrealistic, but so is thinking America can keep borrowing trillions forever.


correction: tax at 100% the profits of all corporations in America.




DomKen -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 12:55:22 PM)

Or you know we could simply increase revenue enough to have a reasonable surplus and slowly pay down the debt. We could even pursue a pro inflation, say 5 or 6%, strategy and reduce the debt by effectively slowly devaluing the dollar.




mnottertail -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 12:55:27 PM)

Major League Baseball  a non-profit....now how fucked up is that.




Yachtie -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 12:57:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Or you know we could simply increase revenue enough to have a reasonable surplus and slowly pay down the debt. We could even pursue a pro inflation, say 5 or 6%, strategy and reduce the debt by effectively slowly devaluing the dollar.



You really do want to kill the middle class.




Yachtie -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 12:59:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

Major League Baseball  a non-profit....now how fucked up is that.



Hell, I find it so boring that any ticket purchase on my part would be charity. [:D]




joether -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 3:01:51 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
So many errors. Direct spending on the Iraq war as of end of last year was $757billion. Sooooo you're off by a factor of 3.
Your number is for iran, arghanistan and other operations and includes high speculative numbers into the future for the care of veterans, and inflated estimates on interest.


And where does this $757 Billion number come from exactly? Your here bitching at me to cite source material and YOU cant even put your own money where your mouth is in the same sentence? That number of yours is not even remotely close to the actual number. According to Reuters a 2013 study found the cost of both wars (Iraq taking the grand majority of costs) to be $3.7 trillion. With another $6 trillion paid out over four decades due to all the wounds inflicted upon US soldiers and civilians. The major cost in the two wars, Iraq, was drawn down when President Obama took office. Afghanistan persisted for a short time there after. Since Afghanistan was the 'cheaper' of the two wars, most people label the costs as 'The Iraq War'.

Wikipedia has a summary of equipment lost in Iraq:

80 M1 Abrams tanks
55 M2 Bradley fighting vehicles
20 Stryker wheeled combat vehicles
20 M113 armored personnel carriers
250 Humvees
500+ Mine clearing vehicles, heavy/medium trucks, and trailers
10 Assault Amphibious Vehicles
109 Helicopters
18 Fixed-Wing Aircraft

How much do you suppose it costs the nation to buy just one M1 Abrams? Stock it up, crew it, ship it to Iraq and maintain its fighting status? And this is just the equipment that was.....lost.....not shipped there and back along with supplies and support personnel. Not to mention operations on a daily basis for seven years. Do you know how much 'daily operations' cost the USA? About $720 million or $500,000 a second!

So yeah, where the hell does your $757 Billion come from, given that after 100 days of Iraq, this nation spent (according to the Washington Post...a pretty conservative paper I might add) $720 Billion?

Yet......AGAIN.......you show all of us that you just push out absolute bullshit without an ounce of research to justify.....ANYTHING.....you BS about. And when you actually took a few seconds to research, the material ends up destroying your case ANYWAYS!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Secondly - and I don't know how many times I have to repeat this.
Clinton *did not* balance the budget. The budget hasn't been balanced in decades. Clinton merely took social security spending off book. Poof - it disappeared!


OK, I'm going to explain US Government 101....

In order for Congress (that would be the House and Senate) to pass a bill into law, it MUST go to the President for approval. Unless there exists a sizable majority of 'yay' votes in both halves of Congress to by past the White House all together. Back in '95, the Republicans controlled Congress, but President Clinton was a Democrat. There were enough Democrats in Congress to prevent Republicans from passing a budget bill WITHOUT White House approval. So the Republicans and the White House, not only balanced the bill, but created a surplus for the remaining Clinton years in office (term 2). Go look it up in the history books. One of the things Clinton (and Democrats) did, that he took a HUGE amount of flak from conservatives over was creating more debt. However, its what they did with the money that is not often reported in conservative media. They spent the money buying off outstanding debts and using the lower loan percentage instead. So from the 12% that was being charged to 5%. That would be defined as 'smart business'. Believe it or not, quite a few Republicans helped the Democrats because this was a wise move to make.

President Clinton took Social Security off the Spending Bill and it pass through Congress? By all means, cite your source for this lunatic idea.....

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Tax revenues are the highest they've ever been. Federal expenditures as % of GDP are the highest they've ever been.
Ben Bernanke says spending has to come down.


I like the bold part there Phydeaux. You know why? Because that is conservative media conditioning the stupid, idiot and foolish conservatives to babbling stuff they don't know what they are talking about. Its a talking point, but only works if someone doesn't challenge you over it. If the tax revenue was the highest it has ever been, then how was the budget balanced before former G. W. Bush took office, five or six tax reductions taken place, and a deficit of nearly $800 Billion in existence? Since a 'balanced budget' means Revenue = Expenses, it would therefore be logical to assume had those tax cuts NOT been put in place there would not only be no deficit but revenues would be MUCH higher. Go ahead, challenge it.....

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
What creditable reason do you have for suggesting that increasing spending is a good idea?


I resist insulting you when and however I can. Not out of any respect for you, but for the Moderators whom have a VERY tiresome job that gives no thanks to them. So in this regard, not calling you a huge number of insults, even though you rightly deserve them, its being nice and considerate to the Moderators. And I think they will let some of the material go since even THEY shake their heads at how dumb conservatives have allowed themselves to become even as technology provides numerous ways to keep oneself educated (failing that, able to look up stuff easier).

Here is the credible reasoning from Macro Economics (college level): (simplified version)

During any recession in US History, wages and jobs have decreased at a faster rate than they were increasing. The result has been observed to be less consumer spending than in bullish times. Less consumer spending often leads companies to make further cut backs on wages and jobs. Most people can understand how this downward spiral does not correct itself on its own. There is a 'bottom' much like a metaphorical stock price: $0.00 of worth. The US Government in times past has artificially created demand by pouring money into the economy through increased government spending. And it has often worked. 'Fiscal' folks that are dumb rage about this funding, while wise folks realize the spending does create much more good than bad over time.

The Democrats at the outbreak of WW2 used government spending to spur the nation from a very bad economic Depression into a fighting nation. Often not known is the ten years or so before 1941 of what the US Government was doing that modern conservatives overlook. In the years since FDR, this nation has been in various states of economic recession on a national level. Democrats and Republicans, Liberals, Moderates and Conservatives in the past used government spending to get the nation out of recession. The 'Trickle Down Theory' came in as one way to reduce the effects of a recession (known today as 'Supply Side Economics'). It has never been proven to work! In 2007, the national economy was not just sinking towards a recession but by all accounts a Depression.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 was pass through a Democratic Controlled Congress and White House. Spending close to a trillion dollars over two years in each of the fifty states of the Union. Republicans opposed this bill in heavy numbers. 'Why?' was the question of the day by most sane people; 'fiscal conservatives' berated the President saying the nation could not afford the cost. Go an look at the nation's health in those two years of the bill. They stopped the downward spiral and evened things out for the most part across each industry. Most economists in 2010 pointed out that if the nation spent another $500 Billion in 2011, the nation would be for the most part, out of a recession.

However, Republicans were against this idea and did everything in their power to convince Americans this was a bad idea. Yeah, try to 'rationalize' this one to us sane people, Phydeaux. The Republican/Tea Party killed the economy for political reasons. They did it again in 2011 and most recently with the Government Shutdown just a few weeks ago. You have a better chance of proving to me in scientific terms that God exists than that the Republican/Tea Party (and all its minions) had the best interest of the WHOLE NATION when it did any of these actions to heart.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
So when you suggest that people get educated in facts and figures, I suggest you start with yourself.


I believe I show it in each post. You however, NEVER seem to have a clue on anything on any thread. You get owned left and right by a dozen different posters on a routine basis. And when I look at the 'problem' it all comes down to you not having a clue on HOW to research or WHEN to research. Why not go to a book store and take out a book on 'US National Economics' for the past ten years. If your having trouble finding it, ask a clerk. I'm ok discussing different viewpoints so long as what is being discussed are the actual events. When challenged, it is often a good idea to cite the source of material. The Macro Economics answer comes from a number of different sources. Not all of them are online. Most of them are not in easy sound bites to babble off on FOX News to the unsuspecting conservative audience. Much of it assumes one holds a fair idea of US History, US Political History and US Economic History. The three are different in their focus on history. One is general, one political and one economical. While they do overlay here and there, they each express concepts not found in the other two.




DomKen -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 3:33:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Or you know we could simply increase revenue enough to have a reasonable surplus and slowly pay down the debt. We could even pursue a pro inflation, say 5 or 6%, strategy and reduce the debt by effectively slowly devaluing the dollar.



You really do want to kill the middle class.

Neither proposal of mine would harm the middle class. All revenue we need could be raised from the top 10% of earners in this nation along with an increase in the inheritance tax. Moderate inflation is harmless to the middle class as long as wages keep up which it is long past time that we start forcing to happen (wages have been falling in real terms for decades for no reason except the greed of the rentier class).




Phydeaux -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 3:52:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
So many errors. Direct spending on the Iraq war as of end of last year was $757billion. Sooooo you're off by a factor of 3.

Lie by omission. The direct spending is not the whole thing. You left off the trillion we'll pay in interest on that 757 billion as well as the more than trillion we'll pay for care for the wounded. You also left off the replacement of lost equipment etc.

Suffice it to say that $4 trillion may be a lowball estimate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_cost_of_the_Iraq_War


Grrr.. your bandying of "lie" is obnoxious and inaccurate.
I said that it didn't include interests costs - but paying a trillion in interest on an 800 billion in cost cannot solely be viewed as a war cost - since if we ran a tight economy with responsible budgeting it would involved little interest cost.

As such, the interest cost is attributable to multiple factors and can only be partly attributable to the war. Additionally as I said in my original message - interest costs currently stated are wildly overstated.




Phydeaux -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 3:54:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Or you know we could simply increase revenue enough to have a reasonable surplus and slowly pay down the debt. We could even pursue a pro inflation, say 5 or 6%, strategy and reduce the debt by effectively slowly devaluing the dollar.



You really do want to kill the middle class.

Neither proposal of mine would harm the middle class. All revenue we need could be raised from the top 10% of earners in this nation along with an increase in the inheritance tax. Moderate inflation is harmless to the middle class as long as wages keep up which it is long past time that we start forcing to happen (wages have been falling in real terms for decades for no reason except the greed of the rentier class).


Moderate inflation however is not however harmless. It kills those on fixed incomes, such as the retired.




Yachtie -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 4:06:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Moderate inflation is harmless to the middle class as long as wages keep up


You do realize that at the inflation rate you proposed, "say 5 or 6%", that the economy must, at minimum, match or exceed that too? Now, just how do you propose to get the economy going at such a rate? You can't just conjur that up, and not even the government's QE has come close to restarting the engine. Also, just what in the hell would happen if you were to suddenly mandate a minimum wage of, say, $16/hr? Do you think businesses would rush to hire when they're not at current pay rates?

The biggest question is, do you actually spend any time thinking about what you say? [8|]




Phydeaux -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 5:09:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: joether

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
So many errors. Direct spending on the Iraq war as of end of last year was $757billion. Sooooo you're off by a factor of 3.
Your number is for iran, arghanistan and other operations and includes high speculative numbers into the future for the care of veterans, and inflated estimates on interest.


According to Reuters a 2013 study found the cost of both wars...to be $3.7 trillion.


So you admit that you were wrong, and, like I said the cost you quoted was for Iraq, and afghanistan (as well as other operations).

quote:


quote:



.
quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Secondly - and I don't know how many times I have to repeat this.
Clinton *did not* balance the budget. The budget hasn't been balanced in decades. Clinton merely took social security spending off book. Poof - it disappeared!



President Clinton took Social Security off the Spending Bill and it pass through Congress? By all means, cite your source for this lunatic idea.....


Oh, I don't know.. lets try the US treasure:


Fiscal
Year Year
Ending National Debt Deficit
FY1993 09/30/1993 $4.411488 trillion
FY1994 09/30/1994 $4.692749 trillion $281.26 billion
FY1995 09/29/1995 $4.973982 trillion $281.23 billion
FY1996 09/30/1996 $5.224810 trillion $250.83 billion
FY1997 09/30/1997 $5.413146 trillion $188.34 billion
FY1998 09/30/1998 $5.526193 trillion $113.05 billion
FY1999 09/30/1999 $5.656270 trillion $130.08 billion
FY2000 09/29/2000 $5.674178 trillion $17.91 billion
FY2001 09/28/2001 $5.807463 trillion $133.29 billion


Do you see any year where the debt went down? Funny. Me either. So for the uneducated.. this means there was never a surplus. Just dimocrat talking points repeated so often they think they are true.

How about a quote from democratic senator ?
the Federal Government ran a surplus. Absolutely false. This reporter ought to do his work. This crowd never has asked for or kept up with or checked the facts. Eric Planin--all he has to do is not spread rumors or get into the political message. Both Democrats and Republicans are all running this year and next and saying surplus, surplus. Look what we have done. It is false. The actual figures show that from the beginning of the fiscal year until now we had to borrow $127,800,000,000. - Democratic Senator Ernest Hollings

So where did the putative "surplus" come from. Again, because of the decision to change the reporting so that social security figures weren't included. IE., smoke and mirrors.
As for more sites - educate yourself, sonny boy. If you want to understand what actually happened you'd have to live through it or go research it. I suggest you google "myth clinton budget surplus". It is more than adequately documented.

I'd also suggest a primer on how capitalism works: Try this: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-bill-clintons-balanced-budget-destroyed-the-economy-2012-9

quote:


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Tax revenues are the highest they've ever been. Federal expenditures as % of GDP are the highest they've ever been.
Ben Bernanke says spending has to come down.


I like the bold part there Phydeaux. You know why? Because that is conservative media conditioning the stupid, idiot and foolish conservatives to babbling stuff they don't know what they are talking about. Its a talking point, but only works if someone doesn't challenge you over it. If the tax revenue was the highest it has ever been,
quote:



So again from the US treasury
Tax revenues

2013: 2.65+ trillion*
2012: 2.45 trillion
2011: 2.30 trillion
2010: 2.2 trillion
2009: 2.1 trillion
2008: 2.52 trillion
2007: 2.57 trillion
2006: 2.4 trillion

Figures for 2013 are only released so far for 11 months (2.47 tril) Final year figures will exceed 2.65 trillion.

quote:

quote:



ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
What creditable reason do you have for suggesting that increasing spending is a good idea?


I resist insulting you ...


Not so I've noticed
quote:



Further blah...

I thought I was clear. But you tried to educated me on non relevent keynesian economics.
So let me try again. Federal expenditures are the HIGHEST they've ever been as a % of GDP. Before you tell me this is a good thing, I'd like to educate you on some things.

Unless we are printing or borrowing money (which has its own risks and costs) - every dollar that goes into the federal government comes out of the private sector.
Money in the private sector does things like generate jobs.

Liberals with smoke and mirrors only want to focus on the idea that government can create jobs by taking money from the private sector, and spend it. They gloss over the fact that taking money from the private sector means removing that money from circulation. That money is no longer buying goods creating jobs etc.

Liberals would like to argue that every dollar spent has a magnifier effect. Usually they will quote the number 2.2. This is true. However, it ignores the fact that money left in the private economy also magnifies, and at a slightly greater rate of 2.4.

I am not one that believes government should never be used. I believe that there are goals that are worthy and a federal case can be made.

Using your model - why don't we just increase spending to 100% of the economy. Free beer and pretzels for everyone. The reasons are in the link I sent you earlier.

quote:


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
So when you suggest that people get educated in facts and figures, I suggest you start with yourself.


I believe I show it in each post. You however, NEVER seem to have a clue on anything on any thread. You get owned left and right by a dozen different posters on a routine basis.


Sonny boy, I've never been 'owned' on a single topic here, although my viewpoint is almost always outnumbered.

I recognize that those that comment here are in the main left wing. I post in the idea of provoking a few of you to thought, or to read outside your bubble zone.
You repeat the ridiculous assertion (as in common in your circle) that I get my news from Fox news. Sonny boy, I get my news from reading. I don't own a television and so I don't watch fox news. My favorite radio station is NPR - not because I agree with it - because I disagree with it.

I do, on the other hand read - and I read a great deal. Hundreds and thousands of books and articles a year. I tested out at just over 2240 wpm.
So when I tell you that what the costs to develop a drug are- its because I read books on the subject of FDA approvals.
When I said that there were planes that could have responded in a timely fashion - its because I read pages and pages on planes - and I just don't blindly believe what the pablum
put out by the administration.

When I say that millions of insurance plans will be cancelled (and they subsequently are) - its because I attended a medical conference where these items were discussed.
When I say that the IRS is going to have problems with the pushback in enrollment dates well etc etc.





Phydeaux -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 5:18:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Or you know we could simply increase revenue enough to have a reasonable surplus and slowly pay down the debt. We could even pursue a pro inflation, say 5 or 6%, strategy and reduce the debt by effectively slowly devaluing the dollar.



You realize we *are* slowly devaluing the dollar?

Realize also that the values of a stable currency are not to be sneezed at. People will hold dollars when they are convenient ways to purchase goods. If the dollar loses value as they hold it that inclination is reduced.

Additionally, I work for a price - I have an expectation of what those dollars will earn me. Instable or declining dollars values means I have to renegotiate.




DomKen -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 6:16:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
So many errors. Direct spending on the Iraq war as of end of last year was $757billion. Sooooo you're off by a factor of 3.

Lie by omission. The direct spending is not the whole thing. You left off the trillion we'll pay in interest on that 757 billion as well as the more than trillion we'll pay for care for the wounded. You also left off the replacement of lost equipment etc.

Suffice it to say that $4 trillion may be a lowball estimate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_cost_of_the_Iraq_War


Grrr.. your bandying of "lie" is obnoxious and inaccurate.
I said that it didn't include interests costs - but paying a trillion in interest on an 800 billion in cost cannot solely be viewed as a war cost - since if we ran a tight economy with responsible budgeting it would involved little interest cost.

As such, the interest cost is attributable to multiple factors and can only be partly attributable to the war. Additionally as I said in my original message - interest costs currently stated are wildly overstated.


Wrong. When W took us to war he made no attempt to actually pay for it. He simply paid for it by borrowing and did off budget so as to hide his grotesque increase in the deficit. There is no way to not take the interest payments into account. The bonds are sold. the maturity value of those bonds was set when they were sold.

If you knew what you were talking about then it was a lie. If you didn't know what you were talking about then it was a lie. So no matter what it was a lie.




DomKen -> RE: US Deficits / Debt (11/12/2013 6:18:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Or you know we could simply increase revenue enough to have a reasonable surplus and slowly pay down the debt. We could even pursue a pro inflation, say 5 or 6%, strategy and reduce the debt by effectively slowly devaluing the dollar.



You really do want to kill the middle class.

Neither proposal of mine would harm the middle class. All revenue we need could be raised from the top 10% of earners in this nation along with an increase in the inheritance tax. Moderate inflation is harmless to the middle class as long as wages keep up which it is long past time that we start forcing to happen (wages have been falling in real terms for decades for no reason except the greed of the rentier class).


Moderate inflation however is not however harmless. It kills those on fixed incomes, such as the retired.


Not really. SS indexes to COLA. Investment income obviously goes up if inflation goes up. Pension income might be affected but very very few people get a pension any more.




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