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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/8/2015 9:44:46 PM   
cloudboy


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It all feels like Christmas in September to me.

I'm curious how the Republicans will POLL if they shut the government down again.

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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/8/2015 10:18:57 PM   
Lucylastic


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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/9/2015 4:00:06 AM   
JVoV


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The Republican field is too watered down. Sadly, there is no run-off election in the primary season. I don't think anyone would have expected Carson to be ahead of Jeb in the polls, or for Trump to be ahead of everybody.

For the Democrats, the choices are Hillary, Sanders, and AnyoneButHillary. Biden hasn't even officially thrown his hat in the ring, but he's already ahead of O'Malley.

Trump and Clinton dominate the media coverage, but Bernie seems to be gaining attention.

The polls tell us which candidates are reaching voters with their message and which issues are going to be front & center in the national election.

But there is still a lot that can happen between now and the actual primaries. Congress is back in session, so I fully expect to see the few Senators running to make some plays. Another government shutdown won't bode well for the likes of Paul or Cruz. And Bernie has a chance to introduce legislation that gets him more notice.

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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/9/2015 6:40:43 AM   
DesideriScuri


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BamaD
I think they should have it so all states have their primaries on the same day, about two months before the general election. It would also be nice if politicians would refrain from announcing their candidacy no more than six months prior to the general election.
Sounds good.
The problem is that unless you have a second round of primaries, maybe even a third or fourth, you will get someone that represents a small but dedicated group of voters. 1984 is a good example, Jessi Jackson had about 25-30% of the vote with five or six candidates, looked pretty good. But when it came down to two he had 24-30% of the vote, a pitiful showing.
We need to have a means of wittling the feild down to get the "best" candidate.
I would suggest 4 regional primaries, rotating the order so the same part of the country doesn't get only the wittled down field.
I would also suggest that the polls should open nation wide a midnight Eastern Time and stay open for 24 hours, thus we don't have presidential winners declared at 8 eastern time with hours left to vote in Hawaii. See 1980 when Carter conseded about that time.


Maybe having 3 primaries with the final one being 2 months prior to the General election? The first would be anyone running that is qualified for the seat. The second one would only have the top handful vote getters from the first primary, and would whittle the field down for the final primary.

ETA: The candidates can't announce (or receive funding) until 12 months prior to the General election. The first primary would be 6 months prior to the election, and the second would be 2 months after the first. That gives each remaining candidate 2 months to state his/her case prior to the next primary.

< Message edited by DesideriScuri -- 9/9/2015 6:43:53 AM >


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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/9/2015 8:41:05 AM   
cloudboy


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With no Latino Vote, the election is over for 2016.

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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/9/2015 9:32:21 AM   
tj444


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

I see people crowing and lamenting about who is leading and not leading presidential polls.
Seriously folks. Does no one have a memory?
8 years ago, Hillary was so far ahead because of the country's perceived notion that Dubya had made a hash of the economy that the RNC didn't even bother to campaign hard with a viable candidate. They conceded to her a year before the election. What happened?
This unknown freshman senator from that hotbed of honest politics, Chicago, came out of nowhere and took the nomination. The RNC was caught with no message, no viable candidate, no campaign and no win. They lost a heck of an opportunity.

4 years later, they believed the polls again and thought they would have a cakewalk so they decided they could ram a Christian agenda down everyone's throat.
Same result, they got their asses kicked.

Maybe folks, especially those at the RNC, need to just ignore the damn polls for now at least.

Lately, leading in the polls early has been kind of a kiss of death.

as with everything the US does, this is wayyyyyy over done and dragged out... there are too many damn polls!.. remind me, when is the US election again?

meanwhile.. in Canada, on August 2, 2015, Prime Minister Harper called an election.. it will be all over and done on October 19th, 2015.. btw, this campaign is the longest in Canada's history.. a total of eleven (11) weeks!... imo, that is the way it should be done, politicians should be spending their time working at making the country better, not spending years fundraising, making backroom deals with big corps and buying votes.. Back here in the US, y'all have been in election mode since Obama was re-elected!!!.. Is it any wonder that your country's problems aren't being solved??? Don't y'all get tired of it all? block this shite out? what a waste of energy (and billions of dollars), imo.. Just sayin'...

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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/9/2015 9:56:54 AM   
thompsonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: joether

quote:

ORIGINAL: thompsonx
Typically about a third of u.s. voters actually vote. The ones who vote tend to be the ones who vote regularly. If we take these two thoughts and add the "none of the above " option at the booth. (lots of pretrial publicity) I think it most likely that the two major candidates would get about the vote count that would have happened if the option were not there. I think the voter turnout would approach 80%. The ones who would be voting for the option would seem to be the ones who feel that voting for this bum or that bum is less important than watching the reruns of "the howdy doody show".


" In late 1999 in California, citizen proponents of Proposition 23, titled the "None of the Above Act", qualified a new State ballot initiative through circulated petitions submitted to the Secretary of State. A total of $987,000 was expended in promotion of the ballot option, which was defeated in the March 2000 general election 64% to 36%. If passed by the voters, it would have required this new ballot option for all state and federal elective offices, exempting only local judicial races; in determining official election results, the "none of the above" voter tally would be discarded in favor of the candidate with the greatest number of votes."

[COLOR=#0000FF]SOURCE


Seems the voters of Nevada (which is a purple state) were not in favor of such a measure. It sounds nice of an idea, but there exists not enough evidence to support the idea. Nor in drawing a greater percentage of people to the ballot box.





Make up your mind is it nevada or california?

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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/9/2015 4:17:47 PM   
dcnovice


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FR

Two thoughts:

(a) Only one poll truly counts, and that won't happen till November 8, 2016. (Not an original insight, I know.)

(b) Trump may actually be doing the GOP a huge favor. Simply by not being Trump, the eventual nominee will seem endowed with extra sanity and gravitas.



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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/10/2015 7:18:45 AM   
thompsonx


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Extra sanity?

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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/10/2015 9:00:58 AM   
Zonie63


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quote:

ORIGINAL: joether

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zonie63
[b(A) think they should have it so all states have their primaries on the same day, (B)about two months before the general election. (C)It would also be nice if politicians would refrain from announcing their candidacy no more than six months prior to the general election.


I disagree. On each point.

(A): What if states want the same individual at their primary verse another state? That implies the richer state gets the person. Is that fair for the poor states? Three states would like President Obama at their DNC primary; which one gets the President's attention? Why should the other two suffer? What your arguing creates alot of unneeded resentment between the states. The country already had a wide and deep enough of a political chasm without encouraging it!


I don't think it would create unneeded resentment between the states. If anything, it might reduce resentment towards those states which have earlier primaries which gives them an advantage over states with later primaries.

I'm not sure why it would matter if President Obama was at one state's primary over another. I would presume that he would vote in the primary of his home state of Illinois. He could conceivably visit three different states all on the same day if need be - although I don't think they would "suffer" all that much if he visited a day before or a week before. He doesn't have to be in each state on the same day as their primary.

quote:


Likewise it would be a security nightmare for law enforcement and intelligence agencies. That is 100 primaries to cover, assuming each state....ONLY....has the Republican and Democrat running for office. Most states average about four or five political parties. So now we are up to 250+ security details of varing sizes, in either the same or different areas of each state.


I don't see how it would be any different than a general election, when all states are running elections, candidates going all over the place, need for security. If we can do it for a general election, then I don't see any reason we couldn't do it for a national primary.

quote:


By breaking it up into a number of days/weeks, allows the limited resources to focus into specific areas of the nation.


Possibly, although with a shorter campaign season overall, that might also make it cheaper.

quote:


(B): Two months is not enough time to property analyze a person for the White House. Most of us have day jobs. What little time we have to study and make an informed decision is scrapped from several days of free time. Besides, gives more time for a candidate to screw up and make it entertaining.

Yes, I know most Americans are completely stupid when it comes to elections. This forum is a great example of that concept! But some of us would like more time to study each person beyond the sound bites and political buzz phrases.


Conceivably, it would be more than two months, since there would be time during the four-month period before the primaries when the candidates would be known, vetted by multiple news organizations, public appearances, televised debates - they're already doing that now, over a year before the election even begins. But now, it's totally pointless to even consider it, since I have no idea who's going to be left standing by the time my state has its "presidential preference election."

In mid-term elections and for other state offices, our primary actually is only two months before the general election (but the campaigning and commercials start months before). So, we only have a few months to study the candidates for senator, representative, governor, and other such offices.

But how much time does one need to study/analyze a candidate and gain enough information to make a decision?


quote:


(C): I'm fine if someone wishes to announce their ran beyond or under that six month window. There is no law stating one has to perform this practice. Frankly if there was, I'd be amazed it wasn't challenged as a violation of the 1st amendment!


I wasn't saying that it should be a law. I was only saying that it would be nice if they would do that.

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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/10/2015 9:26:29 AM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

I see people crowing and lamenting about who is leading and not leading presidential polls.
Seriously folks. Does no one have a memory?
8 years ago, Hillary was so far ahead because of the country's perceived notion that Dubya had made a hash of the economy that the RNC didn't even bother to campaign hard with a viable candidate. They conceded to her a year before the election. What happened?
This unknown freshman senator from that hotbed of honest politics, Chicago, came out of nowhere and took the nomination. The RNC was caught with no message, no viable candidate, no campaign and no win. They lost a heck of an opportunity.

4 years later, they believed the polls again and thought they would have a cakewalk so they decided they could ram a Christian agenda down everyone's throat.
Same result, they got their asses kicked.

Maybe folks, especially those at the RNC, need to just ignore the damn polls for now at least.

Lately, leading in the polls early has been kind of a kiss of death.

as with everything the US does, this is wayyyyyy over done and dragged out... there are too many damn polls!.. remind me, when is the US election again?

meanwhile.. in Canada, on August 2, 2015, Prime Minister Harper called an election.. it will be all over and done on October 19th, 2015.. btw, this campaign is the longest in Canada's history.. a total of eleven (11) weeks!... imo, that is the way it should be done, politicians should be spending their time working at making the country better, not spending years fundraising, making backroom deals with big corps and buying votes.. Back here in the US, y'all have been in election mode since Obama was re-elected!!!.. Is it any wonder that your country's problems aren't being solved??? Don't y'all get tired of it all? block this shite out? what a waste of energy (and billions of dollars), imo.. Just sayin'...

if harper gets back in we are completely fucked.

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Profile   Post #: 31
RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/10/2015 9:53:43 AM   
tweakabelle


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Isn't he trailing badly in the opinion polls?

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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/10/2015 9:57:37 AM   
Zonie63


Posts: 2826
Joined: 4/25/2011
From: The Old Pueblo
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: BamaD
I think they should have it so all states have their primaries on the same day, about two months before the general election. It would also be nice if politicians would refrain from announcing their candidacy no more than six months prior to the general election.
Sounds good.
The problem is that unless you have a second round of primaries, maybe even a third or fourth, you will get someone that represents a small but dedicated group of voters. 1984 is a good example, Jessi Jackson had about 25-30% of the vote with five or six candidates, looked pretty good. But when it came down to two he had 24-30% of the vote, a pitiful showing.
We need to have a means of wittling the feild down to get the "best" candidate.
I would suggest 4 regional primaries, rotating the order so the same part of the country doesn't get only the wittled down field.
I would also suggest that the polls should open nation wide a midnight Eastern Time and stay open for 24 hours, thus we don't have presidential winners declared at 8 eastern time with hours left to vote in Hawaii. See 1980 when Carter conseded about that time.


Maybe having 3 primaries with the final one being 2 months prior to the General election? The first would be anyone running that is qualified for the seat. The second one would only have the top handful vote getters from the first primary, and would whittle the field down for the final primary.

ETA: The candidates can't announce (or receive funding) until 12 months prior to the General election. The first primary would be 6 months prior to the election, and the second would be 2 months after the first. That gives each remaining candidate 2 months to state his/her case prior to the next primary.



Regional primaries might be okay. My only real beef is that just a few states with early primaries can practically pre-empt the entire election by knocking out numerous candidates early before voters in other states even get a chance. And the press keeps showing polls and covering the primary season like it's some sort of horse race, which might also have an effect over the voting choices made in states with later primaries. Most of the media are completely useless, too. Instead of giving us news, information, and insight into the candidates, they're covering it like it's some sort of sports event.

For as long as I've been voting, I've never liked how this process works. It seems like it would make it easier to stack an election, as it can usurp the selection process before the majority of voters even get up to bat. I think it was Boss Tweed who said "I don't care who does the electing, just as long as I get to do the nominating."

Even then, we're not really voting for the candidates in the primaries; we're just voting for the delegates to the convention, which is a rather expensive circus.

I don't know - sometimes it just astounds me. With all the primaries, the campaigning, the town hall meetings, the speeches, and then the conventions - the voters should have enough information to make sensible choices. But why does it always seem that, whenever we get to the general election, it always turns out to be Heckle vs. Jeckle?




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RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/10/2015 12:23:14 PM   
tj444


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

if harper gets back in we are completely fucked.

I sure as hell dont want another Trudeau as PM..

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Profile   Post #: 34
RE: Are we reading too much into polls? - 9/11/2015 8:23:14 AM   
cloudboy


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YES. The NYT had an article about how POLLs are meaningless because whoever the Party Establishment wants to get the nomination does.

• Grass-roots conservatives and liberals may resent it, but many analysts — including me — argue that the outcome of presidential nominations is shaped or even decided by party elites. That’s a broadly defined category of nearly anyone who has the power to sway public opinion with money, skills or media reach. It includes party officials, politicians, political operatives, donors, activists, television pundits and radio hosts.

• Many candidates — “factional” candidates, as I described them in a taxonomy of primary candidates in April — can become the favorite of a major group of voters, lead the national polls for a time and even win states without broad support from party elites. But no candidate has won the nomination without the support of those elites.

^^^ Message board posters not listed as arms of the elite.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/10/upshot/donald-trump-vs-the-party-why-hes-still-such-a-long-shot.html?_r=0

< Message edited by cloudboy -- 9/11/2015 8:38:37 AM >

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