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Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 8:37:25 AM

tweakabelle

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The atrocious civil war in Syria took another twist last week with Russian planes flying sorties against "jihadi" opponents of the Assad regime. Many observers feel that the Russian intervention may mark a decisive moment that will ensure the survival of Assad, a long term Russian ally in the ME.

Russia has announced its goal of securing a political solution to the Syrian situation, specifying free elections as one possible outcome. Unlike the West and their allies, Russians don't distinguish between the so-called 'good jihadis' of the Al Quada affiliate Nusra Front supported by the Saudis Turks and Qataris and the 'bad jihadis' of IS. For the Russians they're all terrorists to be destroyed.

The intervention coincided with a softening of the West's position with some Western countries conceding that Assad might be allowed to retain power as part of an overall settlement of the war. Previously it had insisted that Assad had to go.

Will the Russian intervention be decisive? What does Putin hope to achieve? What are the implications for Syria and the region? Has the West been effectively sidelined? Is Assad going to be part of Syria's future?

Your thoughts ........

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 10/6/2015 8:38:30 AM >

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 9:06:50 AM

cloudboy

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One take is a "Putin" analysis -- namely that any kind of failed state -- is a failure. Russia, therefore, is supporting the existing state authority, because existing state authorities are more capable of stable government. See: Libya, Afghanistan, and IRAQ as examples of destabilizing, revolutionary, state building where in a country simply devolves into warring factions. It's always better to maintain the existing state. Next, saving the existing government isn't exactly the same thing as saving ASAD.

The other thing mentioned in the media is how Russia still wants to be a player on the world stage, notwithstanding its imbroglio in the Ukraine that has isolated it from the WEST. Acting on Syria gets it a seat at the table. Attacking ISIS also distracts from the Ukraine.

< Message edited by cloudboy -- 10/6/2015 9:07:49 AM >

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 10:19:39 AM

Kirata

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K.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 10:45:12 AM

blnymph

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the "West" so far relied on Turkey alone (not counting the 5 fighters recruited so far ...) but Turkey only pursued own interests in the region and the status quo (apart from the refugee problem - partially "under control" by selective border closure) seems to suit Turkey rather well

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 10:58:56 AM

mnottertail

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well, anyone who didnt know that turkey was far more concerned about keeping or acquiring kurdish territory, or breaking kurds would have to be the dumbasses in the W administration (all of them) because, that is like a basic deal there. Has been for hundreds of years.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 11:18:44 AM

blnymph

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just a kind of "smell in the air":
since Putin had no problem coming to terms with Iran his probable next step might be a combined Russian-Iranian "peace force" to fight IS -
the step after that: if/after success a new Syrian government might become established with his blessings, a smooth retreat for Assad, Russian control of the Syrian coast, and maybe following a new pipeline plan to get Iranian/Aseri oil to the mediterranean coast, bypassing Georgia and Turkey

just wondering ...

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 1:27:24 PM

Musicmystery

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Russia has long had financial interests in Syria. The only surprise is it took them this long to get involved.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 5:33:04 PM

Aylee

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With respect to Syria, hopefully no one will remind Putin of what happened the last time Russia sent in its army to prop up a puppet state (after overthrowing the prior one) that faced opponents who could shoot back. (Hint. Capital, Kabul. And a few days after the Russians occupied, the UK military attache walked across the street to the Russian embassy, and delivered a gift to his opposite, a history of the the British Afghan expeditions. A few years later, the Russian attache perhaps realized that this was not purely an example of dry English humor at its finest.

This time, there are lots of people supporting various factions, so there is total deniability as to who supplies the other factions with modern surface-to-air and antitank missiles.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 6:51:23 PM

servantforuse

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Obama should have drawn another line in the sand.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 7:07:09 PM

kdsub

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Right now the best thing for the region is a stable Syria... Russia is right... there is no just or good side they are all a waste of humanity. I would stop supporting any group in Syria and demand that all sides stop hostilities and come to the negotiation table. Call Assad's bluff... he says if hostilities stop he will come to the table.

Then I would join with Russia and bomb to hell all who refuse to come to the table.

Butch

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/6/2015 7:14:03 PM

thompsonx

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ORIGINAL: Aylee

With respect to Syria, hopefully no one will remind Putin of what happened the last time Russia sent in its army to prop up a puppet state (after overthrowing the prior one) that faced opponents who could shoot back.

If memory serves they were shooting back with missles made by raytheon and supplied by charlie wilson.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/7/2015 3:41:12 AM

blnymph

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the last time (not counting what happens in the Ukraine) was against Georgia and it resulted in two slices cut from former Georgian territory, Abchasia, and Southern Ossetia under Russian "protection" ...

update your memories please - and do not underestimate Putin, he has learned some lessons from history

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/7/2015 4:51:01 AM

Musicmystery

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Obama should have drawn another line in the sand.

So how many of these wars ya figure we should be in?

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/7/2015 7:56:04 AM

mnottertail

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Obama should have drawn another line in the sand.

Nutsuckers should have bitched more, and kept shitting their pants.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/7/2015 8:19:14 PM

Kirata

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~ FR ~

In addition to air strikes, Russian warships have engaged and are pounding targets in Syria.

Russian Defense Ministry video

K.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/8/2015 3:45:51 AM

blnymph

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sooner or later some American, Turkish, Russian warplane may crash into another since each wants to know what the other is doing ... what then?

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/8/2015 6:48:48 AM

Kirata

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Update:

The engagement involved four Russian warships of the Caspian fleet: the Dagestan, a Gepard-class frigate, and three Buyan M-class corvettes, the Grad Sviyazhsk, the Uglich, and the Veliky Ustyug. The cruise missiles employed have 3 meter accuracy at a range of 2,500km. A total of 11 targets were engaged with 26 missles fired from Kalibr NK ("Klub") vertical launchers The attack was routed over desolate areas of Iranian and Iraqi airspace with the permission of the latter countries. It is being reported that at least one Iraqi official said Iraq might ask for Russian air strikes against Islamic State targets in Iraq.

K.

< Message edited by Kirata -- 10/8/2015 7:07:39 AM >

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/8/2015 1:40:11 PM

Musicmystery

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quote:

ORIGINAL: blnymph

sooner or later some American, Turkish, Russian warplane may crash into another since each wants to know what the other is doing ... what then?

We sue the radar manufacturer.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/8/2015 2:46:27 PM

PeonForHer

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FR

God almighty. I remember as a kid watching films about the times when, during a war, you knew who was trying to kill you at any given moment, and why.

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RE: Russia intervenes in Syria - 10/8/2015 2:49:11 PM

mnottertail

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Karloff has been dead for centuries, old sport.

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Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30

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