quote:

ORIGINAL: Staleek

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: Staleek
And this is why conservatives are considered less intelligent than others.

For failure to kowtow to your world view?

No. A failure to kowtow to reality.

My worldview is immaterial to what is actually taking place in the world, and there are certain things happening which are undeniable fact;

Humans are causing climate change, the easy availability of firearms in the USA is contributing to gun crime, the Islamic population of earth is not comprised mainly of genocidal terrorists, and being poor is not a mark of laziness.

These are facts. What to do about these facts is what constitutes a world view, but they are nevertheless reality.

The problem isn't that conservatives disagree on what to do about these issues, the problem is conservatives are unwilling to even accept that these things exist.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

I'm on a phone, can't cut and paste at the moment.
But crop yields have increased 11% due to increased co2 according to 2 studies.

Out of how many? 50,242,167?

Maybe it's because of longer growing seasons.

Here is a link to global temperature data that show 96% of the planet as had no global warming over the last 35 years.The north pole has a small warming trend.

Over that same period, yields have increased dramatically.
Yields are increasing for a lot of reasons. Longer growing seasons isnt one of them. Increased co2 is.

But you can give a liberal facts, but you can't make him abandon his preconceived notions.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/29/should-we-be-worried/

Did you notice no serious attempt to dispute the facts here? Presented once again with actual temperature data - I note that hill has not tried to support his ridiculous assertion about longer growing seasons...
Nor any defense of "global warming"

Facts are inconvenient things...

The long-debated hiatus or pause in global warming, championed by climate denialists who tried to claim it proved scientists' projections on climate change are inaccurate or overblown, probably did not happen at all.



A new study by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration finds that the world’s warming never really stalled during the last 15 years—it was just masked by incomplete data records that have been improved and expanded in recent years.
"The rate of temperature increase during the last half of the 20th century is virtually identical to that of the 21st century," said Tom Karl, director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and lead author of the study.

The research, published in the peer-reviewed journal Science this week, is just the latest in a growing number of studies refuting the idea of a slowdown or stop in global warming. They continued, " Scientists aren't holding their breath that the findings published this week will sway climate denialists from claiming there is a hiatus or pause in warming.

"There will be a very predictable chorus of 'data manipulation' and 'fraud' as they see a talking point disappear, and so it will just continue as before," "Just remember, their objections have little or nothing to do with science." said Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist and director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies who was not involved in the research.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

We're already in a deflationary spiral. Every major industrialized nation has devalued currency - the Chinese stock mocket crash is due to people understanding the yuan is going to depreciate further and pulling their dollars out into perceived safe havens. Most people don't realize it - but about half of recent treasury sales have been to the fed.
Yep. We're selling bonds to ourselves. More or less this is continuous quantitave easing - essentially yet one more swapping deck chairs on the titanic.

quote:


We HAVE to stop the insane borrowing - to the tune of 400 billion a year. If we stopped now - we might be able to pay off the debt..
in 160 years.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

Oh I agree, forex arbitrage is not for the faint-hearted. But then one borrower told me he did it and because of favorable forex, had a net effective interest rate of ZERO !! Plus, that's when typical development (acquisition) loans were 7% and up.

You refer to reserves against catastrophe even though gold and silver have both taken big hits. I refer to short term A & D loans but also at this point, the Swiss franc looks like a great reserve against the dollar should that catastrophe ever hit.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Swiss have had enough of taking the neutral stance. Sept. 6 2011 during hits on the dollar.

To put a stop to the Swiss franc's rapid appreciation, the Swiss central bank announced a ceiling on the currency by setting an exchange rate minimum against the euro.

On Tuesday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) made its boldest move yet by announcing that the exchange rate between the Swiss franc and the euro must not drop below 1.20 euros. And if it does, the Swiss bank is prepared to enforce the minimum by selling francs and buying up euros "in unlimited quantities."

"The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development," said the SNB in a statement.

Immediately following the announcement, the Swiss franc sank 8.5% to trade right around 1.20 euros.

Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading. "They're hoping this will diminish speculative interest and safe haven attraction to the currency."

HERE

As of 12/31/2011 the USDCHF was $1.06 about 20-25% above its historical average. $1.24 was the recent high now settled back down to .99. 12/2020 is long now though at @ $1.14 So you see, steady against the dollar.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: MariaB

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

Actually in that I am not young anymore, I was thinking of Switzerland. The Swiss franc has been the best post WWII currency vs the US dollar of all currencies and enjoys a steady forex volume. (arbitrage) Plus the Swiss may do all they can to support the western banking cartel but do not rely upon the US dollar for foreign exchange reserves.

You are correct about the Chinese and their addiction to binding the yuan to the US dollar but the Russians are already fucked, only living off their oil. I think it still takes a 'dollar' to buy a 'pound' of rubles, as they saying goes. Maybe it's 1/2 pound now.

The Euro is finally reflecting a long delayed volatility in its reliance also upon an ever increasing debt-driven consumerism and their elite's continued desire for a free lunch, not being able to tax only the people to then hand out so much...to the people resulting in yet more austerity or more debt.

Some friends in that vain, years ago, formed an off-shore private investment trust in Swiss francs and lend in francs but only with a big bank guarantee, still saving borrowers at least 1 point.

Sometimes more, like with a guarantee from the Canadian Royal Bank. Example: I almost got $22 million (in Swiss francs) to re-finance a bldg in no. Va. but the tenant was Logicon (Northrop-Grumman) which does the software for the B1 and B2 bombers and the govt. wouldn't even allow a foreign mortgage holder, let alone buyer.

Bitches. That was going to be a real nice ticket. I mean what the fuck were the Swiss and the Canadians going to do and with such a AAA credit tenant ?

Europe and especially the U.K. have erred in terms of believing that a race for austerity in the short term, is the way to produce real growth. They’re wrong, it’s the quickest route to a recession. I’m not saying we shouldn’t attempt to pay back on the deficit, in fact we have no choice in that but if you suffocate a nation to get there, you strangle your economy too.


Remember 2010-11 and the credit crunch? A lot of people who had bought into the Swiss franc found themselves not only re-paying 50% more but found themselves with larger loans/mortgages. Don't get me wrong, I think FX trading is a great idea but trading in currency is a high risk game. An alternative currency in precious metal is more of a safe haven, especially for things like pension pots and long term investments. On the 16th December gold hit a fantastic low and that's when I bought our family Xmas presents! They didn't get a gold necklace but they did get gold bonds they can almost certainly watch grow.

We're already in a deflationary spiral. Every major industrialized nation has devalued currency - the Chinese stock mocket crash is due to people understanding the yuan is going to depreciate further and pulling their dollars out into perceived safe havens. Most people don't realize it - but about half of recent treasury sales have been to the fed.
Yep. We're selling bonds to ourselves. More or less this is continuous quantitave easing - essentially yet one more swapping deck chairs on the titanic.

We HAVE to stop the insane borrowing - to the tune of 400 billion a year. If we stopped now - we might be able to pay off the debt..
in 160 years.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/millennial-media/201304/do-racism-conservatism-and-low-iq-go-hand-in-hand

Well, another study.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

I'm on a phone, can't cut and paste at the moment.
But crop yields have increased 11% due to increased co2 according to 2 studies.

Out of how many? 50,242,167?

Maybe it's because of longer growing seasons.

Your sarcasm and ignorance are ridiculous. There are no studies that suggest crop yields are down due to increased co2.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

I'm on a phone, can't cut and paste at the moment.
But crop yields have increased 11% due to increased co2 according to 2 studies.

Out of how many? 50,242,167?

Maybe it's because of longer growing seasons.

Here is a link to global temperature data that show 96% of the planet as had no global warming over the last 35 years.The north pole has a small warming trend.

Over that same period, yields have increased dramatically.
Yields are increasing for a lot of reasons. Longer growing seasons isnt one of them. Increased co2 is.

But you can give a liberal facts, but you can't make him abandon his preconceived notions.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/29/should-we-be-worried/

Did you notice no serious attempt to dispute the facts here? Presented once again with actual temperature data - I note that hill has not tried to support his ridiculous assertion about longer growing seasons...
Nor any defense of "global warming"

Facts are inconvenient things...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

I'm on a phone, can't cut and paste at the moment.
But crop yields have increased 11% due to increased co2 according to 2 studies.

Out of how many? 50,242,167?

Maybe it's because of longer growing seasons.

Here is a link to global temperature data that show 96% of the planet as had no global warming over the last 35 years.The north pole has a small warming trend.

Over that same period, yields have increased dramatically.
Yields are increasing for a lot of reasons. Longer growing seasons isnt one of them. Increased co2 is.

But you can give a liberal facts, but you can't make him abandon his preconceived notions.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/29/should-we-be-worried/

Did you notice no serious attempt to dispute the facts here? Presented once again with actual temperature data - I note that hill has not tried to support his ridiculous assertion about longer growing seasons...
Nor any defense of "global warming"

Facts are inconvenient things...

Maybe Hill was working out of town in Norfolk.

1. I have never said that AGW (or even GW) was real. I have said that we need to lead the way in new tech.

2. I see a few graphs that occupy a tiny fraction of the post industrial timeline and you have not even thought of an explanation.
I can only assume from this that you are basically an ignorant RW parrot with the Koch brothers as "Jeff Dunham" and you as "peanut" with their hand up your ass moving your lips as you say what they wish.

quote:


I'm glad you agree that facts are inconvenient things,.... Consider yourself inconvenienced.

quote:


This comes from a Pulitzer prize-winning, nonprofit nonpartisan news organization. The glacier that should of hit you in the head, is that even in your own reports, mentions "The north pole has a small warming trend,"

Since from my understanding that polar ice cap melting is where the vast majority of water that is making the world's ocean levels rise comes from.

quote:


http://insideclimatenews.org/news/04062015/global-warming-great-hiatus-gets-debunked-NOAA-study?gclid=Cj0KEQiA2b20BRDj4buduIG-y9EBEiQAhgMGFSem8vBgXc-WjWaRzUPH6gdDpivpPcAADU8VpAWxywwaAjAA8P8HAQ

quote:


By the way, if you want to feel a little bit more inconvenienced... Even Exxon knew of the issue a long time ago. Here's their 40 years worth on it..... Enjoy dude!!

quote:


"Let's agree there's a lot we really don't know about how climate will change in the 21st century and beyond," Raymond said in his speech before the World Petroleum Congress in Beijing in October 1997.

"We need to understand the issue better, and fortunately, we have time," he said. "It is highly unlikely that the temperature in the middle of the next century will be significantly affected whether policies are enacted now or 20 years from now."

Over the years, several Exxon scientists who had confirmed the climate consensus during its early research, including Cohen and David, took Raymond's side, publishing views that ran contrary to the scientific mainstream.

quote:


I hope you feel a hair smarter now

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:

ORIGINAL: MariaB

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

Actually in that I am not young anymore, I was thinking of Switzerland. The Swiss franc has been the best post WWII currency vs the US dollar of all currencies and enjoys a steady forex volume. (arbitrage) Plus the Swiss may do all they can to support the western banking cartel but do not rely upon the US dollar for foreign exchange reserves.

You are correct about the Chinese and their addiction to binding the yuan to the US dollar but the Russians are already fucked, only living off their oil. I think it still takes a 'dollar' to buy a 'pound' of rubles, as they saying goes. Maybe it's 1/2 pound now.

The Euro is finally reflecting a long delayed volatility in its reliance also upon an ever increasing debt-driven consumerism and their elite's continued desire for a free lunch, not being able to tax only the people to then hand out so much...to the people resulting in yet more austerity or more debt.

Some friends in that vain, years ago, formed an off-shore private investment trust in Swiss francs and lend in francs but only with a big bank guarantee, still saving borrowers at least 1 point.

Sometimes more, like with a guarantee from the Canadian Royal Bank. Example: I almost got $22 million (in Swiss francs) to re-finance a bldg in no. Va. but the tenant was Logicon (Northrop-Grumman) which does the software for the B1 and B2 bombers and the govt. wouldn't even allow a foreign mortgage holder, let alone buyer.

Bitches. That was going to be a real nice ticket. I mean what the fuck were the Swiss and the Canadians going to do and with such a AAA credit tenant ?

Europe and especially the U.K. have erred in terms of believing that a race for austerity in the short term, is the way to produce real growth. They’re wrong, it’s the quickest route to a recession. I’m not saying we shouldn’t attempt to pay back on the deficit, in fact we have no choice in that but if you suffocate a nation to get there, you strangle your economy too.


Remember 2010-11 and the credit crunch? A lot of people who had bought into the Swiss franc found themselves not only re-paying 50% more but found themselves with larger loans/mortgages. Don't get me wrong, I think FX trading is a great idea but trading in currency is a high risk game. An alternative currency in precious metal is more of a safe haven, especially for things like pension pots and long term investments. On the 16th December gold hit a fantastic low and that's when I bought our family Xmas presents! They didn't get a gold necklace but they did get gold bonds they can almost certainly watch grow.

We're already in a deflationary spiral. Every major industrialized nation has devalued currency - the Chinese stock mocket crash is due to people understanding the yuan is going to depreciate further and pulling their dollars out into perceived safe havens. Most people don't realize it - but about half of recent treasury sales have been to the fed.
Yep. We're selling bonds to ourselves. More or less this is continuous quantitave easing - essentially yet one more swapping deck chairs on the titanic.

We HAVE to stop the insane borrowing - to the tune of 400 billion a year. If we stopped now - we might be able to pay off the debt..
in 160 years.

You are correct and incorrect. The few nations with larger industrialized economies have seen their currencies devalued but as always, only with respect to (compared to) a very few, small, non-industrialized nation's currency and as I have been writing, the Swiss franc immediately comes to mind. This is first because the various currencies relative value to each other is the only way to assess such a financial phenomenon. Otherwise all currencies are judged first by how many US dollars or Euros they will buy.

Your terminology using 'deflationary' spiral is incorrect as we do not see prices falling. The use of that term with respect to the Euro most recently reflects the fall in the value of its purchasing power outside the EU, again it falling in value to the currencies of their trading partners, including the US. Otherwise the falling value of any given currency with respect to its domestic purchasing power...would be inflationary.

The slow economic activity in Europe and to a large extent in the US although not as nearly as much, simply reflects the ongoing 40 year economic regime and the newly established and future model, of buyers (consumers) being essentially broke. Buying and investment then becomes 90% derived by new private debt. That also reflects the importance of interest rates because most western economies are now cost-of-capital, sensitive. High interest rates, recession, low...some economic activity.

That's also why the fed now owns $2 trillion in US debt, also why since WWII the US alone has accumulated depending on who one reads, $60-$70 trillion in public and private debt. (also why unfunded liabilities are also many 10's of trillion$ and going up $7 million/MINUTE) The effort is and will forever be, keeping rates low, borrowing high for economic activity and only because few people and fewer and fewer people, will have any money at all 'to spend'...otherwise.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MariaB

Do you guys understand what "monetarily Sovereign governments" are? and that you are in fact a "monetary Sovereign government" The US will not go into a debt crisis, not now, not ever. If the American Treasury owes the bank of America money, because it owns the bank, it therefore owes itself that money and that cancels out debt!. A deficit is good because it allows a Sovereign government to print money without fear of inflation. People get paranoid about the rising deficit; our governments want us all to get paranoid about the rising deficit because it allows them to steal from our taxes.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/29/should-we-be-worried/

quote:


I'm glad you agree that facts are inconvenient things,.... Consider yourself inconvenienced.

Son, you are about to get seriously schooled.

quote:


This comes from a Pulitzer prize-winning, nonprofit nonpartisan news organization. The glacier that should of hit you in the head, is that even in your own reports, mentions "The north pole has a small warming trend,"

Since from my understanding that polar ice cap melting is where the vast majority of water that is making the world's ocean levels rise comes from.

So right here is where your ass will start smarting.

Q: What happens to the water level in your drink, when the ice cubes melt.
A: Not a DAMN thing.

Q: So what happens to sea levels when the Artic or antartic Sea ice melts?
A: Not a damn thing.


Now, global levels might rise if greenland or the antartic land ice were to melt. And of course, they are, all the time. But the funny thing is there's this little
organization called NASA. You might have heard of it.

It says that even taking into account the melt off, Greenland and Antartica are gaining ice - to the tune of 86 billion tonnes per year.

http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2361/

Oops. Guess what that does to sea levels. Yep!

quote:


http://insideclimatenews.org/news/04062015/global-warming-great-hiatus-gets-debunked-NOAA-study?gclid=Cj0KEQiA2b20BRDj4buduIG-y9EBEiQAhgMGFSem8vBgXc-WjWaRzUPH6gdDpivpPcAADU8VpAWxywwaAjAA8P8HAQ

Yeah. If existing data doesn't prove what you want it to - change the parameters.

Ie., global satellite data didn't show any GLOBAL warming. So they switched to land stations, and fudged the data and.. well damn, those data didn't show any warming after 1997 either.. so..

Panic and switch the data.

I only have 30 years of experience with this, so you can be excused a few stupid mistakes. So when you are conducting actual, yanno, science there are very strict rules on how much sun the thermometer is allowed to get; the presence of buildings, and driveways and wind conditions.

This allows the thermometer to be calibrated. But see - since the official temperature stations didn't support global warming (and they didnt') they went out and took temperature readings from ships.

Uncalibrated thermometers, which fluctuate in accuracy according to sunlight and wind condition etc. Do you see any possible errors in that?

Now I've read both the NOAA paper, and the various rebuttals. But here is one rebuttal from someone who was the lead for an actual chapter in the IPCC climate warming.

http://judithcurry.com/2015/06/04/has-noaa-busted-the-pause-in-global-warming/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/climate-fail-files/list-of-excuses-for-the-pause-in-global-warming/

quote:


By the way, if you want to feel a little bit more inconvenienced... Even Exxon knew of the issue a long time ago. Here's their 40 years worth on it..... Enjoy dude!!

Do you really think with 30+ years of experience I don't know about Exxons Global Climate Coalition? Or their funding of Heartland? Or Black's work?
Really?

Let me quote you from the very link you referenced.

quote:


"Let's agree there's a lot we really don't know about how climate will change in the 21st century and beyond," Raymond said in his speech before the World Petroleum Congress in Beijing in October 1997.

"We need to understand the issue better, and fortunately, we have time," he said. "It is highly unlikely that the temperature in the middle of the next century will be significantly affected whether policies are enacted now or 20 years from now."

Over the years, several Exxon scientists who had confirmed the climate consensus during its early research, including Cohen and David, took Raymond's side, publishing views that ran contrary to the scientific mainstream.

quote:


I hope you feel a hair smarter now

quote:

Since from my understanding that polar ice cap melting is where the vast majority of water that is making the world's ocean levels rise comes from.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Mitchel is pretty far outside mainstream thought.

quote:


Boil it down - money is a medium of exchange. When money ceases to have a readily grasped and trusted value - it ceases to be a viable unit of exchange. Originally, dollars were fix against a gold standard - now they are supported by the full faith and credit of the united states government. At present foreigners look at us debt and say - at 110% of our economy, its a reasonable gamble, buying us debt.

In 5 years, when we are at Greek levels of debt, they will no longer do so. And in fact, it will become difficult to transact business - who will want dollars that are widely perceived as valueless. The only caveat is that other countries may devalue their currencies equivalently - as I said a deflationary spiral.

Its not as if what mitchell advocates hasn't been tried before - in the Weimar republic, the value of inflation was over 100% per day towards the end. It took a wheel barrow full of notes to buy a loaf of bread. At that point, you are inflicting significant harm on the ability of your economy to generate wealth, and to facilitate commerce.

There is a reason china stopped buying us treasuries - even before the current crisis. It undestood that the currency was being devalued.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

But Maria, fundamentally it wasn't sovereignty that determined the day of reckoning for Greece, Portugal, Spain, or Italy. It was trust.

Yields went skyrocketing as the risk of default rose, thereby requiring greater and greater interest rates to make whole.

While a sovereign country may not default getting paid in a worthless currency is functionally the same, which was my point about the Weimar Republic.

quote:


Bottom line:

Keynesianis seem to forget that Keynes himself said pay back the debt when times are good. Something we have never done.