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Iowa Primary results are in - 2/2/2016 7:06:37 AM

tweakabelle

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Iowa has finally concluded the caucuses and the results are in.

The Trump roadshow got a severe fright when it finished second to Cruz. Some commentators attribute this to Cruz's success in attracting the 'evangelical' vote, which might cause some of the more pragmatic thinkers on the Right to ask how Trump could possibly win the White House without the evangelical vote ... Is this the beginning of the end for the 21st century's most notable toupee?

On the democratic side, Hilary scraped a victory by the narrowest of margins, so close that many have called it a dead heat. It seems that there is a lot more substance to Saunders' bid for the nomination than was originially thought.

For both sides, the results indicate voter disapproval of those seen to be 'establishment' candidates, though whether this disenchantment will remain a force until the election is another question .....

Your thoughts and reactions .......

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/2/2016 9:13:41 AM

Phydeaux

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Some story lines really haven't been talked about.
1. The republicans smashed their prevous vote totals 167000 vs 122,000. Clearly trump brought people, and the evangelicals did not stay home.
2. Bush threw everything into Iowa - and lost big time. The establishement vote clearly went to rubio. The same pattern is going to replay in new hampshire.
3. This should kill the campaigns of Huckabee, Santorum and the one percenters. Huckabee/Santorum voters probably move to cruz. The 1%s should drop out but christie et.al polling 10% in NH, won't.
4. The momentum is with sanders. But after NH, the table gets a lot harder for him.
5.Trump was hurt by his failure to debate, and recent comments. Whether he will retool his approach unknown. Bit chastened, but still viable.
6. And Clinton went 6/6 for coin tosses to decide a delegate......

< Message edited by Phydeaux -- 2/2/2016 9:17:50 AM >

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/2/2016 9:32:55 AM

Greta75

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Trump came in second. That is a BIG deal!
I mean, he should really be at the bottom of the list, but his second place! And wow wow wow, Carson is 4th place! I like Carson too! Jeb is barely anywhere! And good on Rand Paul for 5th Place!

But Rubio and Cruz, I don't get it!

That's freaking awesome! Great victory for Trump!

Next one, he might be first place!

I mean, the enormity of this is huge!! People been ridiculing Trump. His just an outsider, TV reality star, who has no political experience and his second place beating so many experience candidates! I can't see this as anything but a positive sign for him.

He also called Iowa people stupid, so getting second place after insulting the people there, is pretty an amazing feat.

< Message edited by Greta75 -- 2/2/2016 9:38:06 AM >

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/2/2016 1:37:35 PM

cloudboy

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Its not a good bell weather for Republicans. Republican winners here don't typically get the nomination -- think Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum.

Sanders was supposed to get crushed in IOWA, so his narrow defeat constitutes real optimism for his overall chances to beat Clinton. Would be funny if all those Benghazi and Email hearings came to naught for the GOP.

(in reply to tweakabelle)

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/2/2016 1:42:46 PM

tj444

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
Your thoughts and reactions .......

Just that I wish it was all over already!

my gawd, this has been going on since the day after Obama's re-election.. enough already!!!

(sigh).. not that it being over (meaning the election) matters much since the day after it will start up all over again.. its perpetual.. never-ending.. and painful.. I really dont get why this happens in the US.. in Canada the whole election thing is over in a couple of months, then we get on with other much more important things... anyway, jmo..

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/2/2016 1:45:44 PM

tj444

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Greta75

He also called Iowa people stupid, so getting second place after insulting the people there, is pretty an amazing feat.

maybe that was the one thing Trump was actually right about.. they seem to have proven his point..

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 4:11:04 AM

DesideriScuri

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
Your thoughts and reactions .......

Just that I wish it was all over already! my gawd, this has been going on since the day after Obama's re-election.. enough already!!!
(sigh).. not that it being over (meaning the election) matters much since the day after it will start up all over again.. its perpetual.. never-ending.. and painful.. I really dont get why this happens in the US.. in Canada the whole election thing is over in a couple of months, then we get on with other much more important things... anyway, jmo..

Oh, please. While I agree with the sentiment, it didn't start after Obama's re-election. I think it was the day after his second inauguration...

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 4:15:54 AM

tweakabelle

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So it seems, for some people at least, it was a case of much ado about nothing. To think it's only going to get more intense and worse between now and polling day...

There does appear to be some disagreement on the Right about the significance of the results for Trump. Greta claims it's a victory for the Mop of the Ages ("Trump came in second. That is a BIG deal! [...] That's freaking awesome! Great victory for Trump!), while Phydeaux maintains "Trump was hurt by his failure to debate, and recent comments.[...] Bit chastened, but still viable."

For mine it's difficult to see second place for a populist campaign like Trump's (with its heavy reliance on momentum and style over substance) as a victory. Equally second place by a mere couple of percentage points is hardly a knock-out blow. The results do seem to be a knock out blow for some of the one per cent candidates, leaving Trump Cruz and Rubio to slog it our for front runner position. I suspect the more extreme right wingers will see the results as an invitation to double down on their more extreme positions, forcing these three into voter-unfriendly and divisive positions on some of the more contentious issues, much to the Democrats delight.

On the Dem side of the aisle, Saunders is proving to be a far more formidable opponent for Hilary than seemed the case a few months ago. It appears that the 'socialist' label no longer carries the political suicide baggage it used to carry in US politics and US voters are finally waking up to the fact that many of the Left's core proposals are far more voter-friendly than voter-threatening. Thank heavens for that! Both sides will feel they have won here, with Hilary walking away with a victory on the numbers, even if it is by the tiniest of margins and Saunders' campaign invigorated by a strong showing and voter confirmation that Saunders is a viable candidate with something to offer.

I'm sure voters on both sides of the aisle enjoyed the opportunity to give the 'establishment' a very pleasing kick up its establishment ass. I hope they enjoyed the moment so hugely that they will insist on more of it in the coming months. It might be their only relief from the tedium of a year of candidates promising to be all things to all people and delivering only to the establishment's 1%.

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 2/3/2016 4:22:12 AM >

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 4:48:48 AM

Tkman117

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Great analysis Tweak, although I think his name is Sanders, not Saunders. Yes I know I'm a grammar nazi, sorry about that

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 9:56:47 AM

BamaD

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

Iowa has finally concluded the caucuses and the results are in.

The Trump roadshow got a severe fright when it finished second to Cruz. Some commentators attribute this to Cruz's success in attracting the 'evangelical' vote, which might cause some of the more pragmatic thinkers on the Right to ask how Trump could possibly win the White House without the evangelical vote ... Is this the beginning of the end for the 21st century's most notable toupee?

On the democratic side, Hilary scraped a victory by the narrowest of margins, so close that many have called it a dead heat. It seems that there is a lot more substance to Saunders' bid for the nomination than was originially thought.

For both sides, the results indicate voter disapproval of those seen to be 'establishment' candidates, though whether this disenchantment will remain a force until the election is another question .....

Your thoughts and reactions .......

Clearly the big losers are Clinton and Trump, both were supossed to win in a walk.
Remember that Cliton was further ahead in 08 and didn't have potential criminal charges in her future. This shows her weakness more than Sander's strength.
The big winner on the Repubican side was Rubio, he was supposed to be a distant thrid and made a much better showing than expected.

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 10:37:09 AM

Lucylastic

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no body here has said hillary was a walk

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 11:30:45 AM

BamaD

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

no body here has said hillary was a walk

The polls did. And how many times have you and virtually every lib on here declared Hillary to be a sure thing to be president?

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Government ranges from a necessary evil to an intolerable one. Thomas Paine

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 11:39:39 AM

Lucylastic

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LMAO nope...not behind hils at all
but hey..
you believe it, you go with that.
all in all
the Iowa convention was a huge success on the schadenfreude scale.

< Message edited by Lucylastic -- 2/3/2016 11:45:07 AM >

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 11:42:11 AM

mythicalsex

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maybe it is different where you are. i read articles all the time.

it feels rigged. word on the street is Trump is way a head. i agree with most of his ideas. i don't think he is bad.

the other prominent candidate ahead is sanders. the whole election seems like a scam. when they suggest that some how cruz beat trum anywhere. nothing wrong with this seeming honest "knight in shining armor" canadian. rubio is fascist. i don't trust fascism or communism or socialism.

benghazi hilly... there is no way i believe she as enough support for six precincts n a row. not in iowa.

http://chicagoist.com/2016/02/02/clinton_won_at_least_6_iowa_precinc.php

sanders is way more ahead than democrats want to admit. he speaks nicely but at the end of the day its more taxes and the trillions all ready lost and the trillions no longer reported by the federal reserve lead me to believe that sanders only wants to rely on taxes for everything.

i don't like his ideas, though he seems like he genuinely means well. i can see why so many democrats believe in him. i still wont unless he begins to explain the free market and defends the rights of individuals.

carson seems to be a good person and he might develop some awesome ideas as well but seems completely unstable for the office or president.

i am not trusting these results of these elections.

the more rhetoric i see, the more inclined i am to vote for the person who was hired the highest amount of minorities, disabled people and regular american muslims.

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 11:50:03 AM

Lucylastic

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Im discussing this particular forum
Not the media or news, or polls.

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 11:56:27 AM

BamaD

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FR
Rand Paul quit.

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 12:16:40 PM

Lucylastic

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And Santorum
I dont see Carson being around long either.

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 12:18:12 PM

Lucylastic

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Totally partisan source.

Real estate mogul Donald Trump accused Ted Cruz of fraud on Wednesday, claiming the Texas senator "stole" the Iowa caucuses and arguing that "either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified."

Trump, who placed second to Cruz in the Hawkeye State, unleashed a barrage of tweets attacking Cruz for playing dirty in Iowa because one of the senator's staffers falsely told Iowa caucus-goers that retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson planned to quit the race. Cruz later apologized for his staffer's actions.

The GOP businessman also slammed Cruz for sending out shady mailers claiming Iowans faced a "VOTING VIOLATION.”

Trump is a master at sucking the oxygen out of the race by drawing attention to himself with new controversies. The Twitter rant is just one more example of this media strategy, particularly at a time when Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are basking in the glow of their performances in Iowa.

Note to our readers: Donald Trump is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist, birther and bully who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims -- 1.6 billion members of an entire religion -- from entering the U.S.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-ted-cruz-twitter-iowa_us_56b20e77e4b08069c7a59077?oa3ba9k9

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 1:58:59 PM

cloudboy

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Funny headline:

https://twitter.com/NYDailyNews/status/694490887032848384/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

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RE: Iowa Primary results are in - 2/3/2016 2:33:25 PM

Phydeaux

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

For mine it's difficult to see second place for a populist campaign like Trump's (with its heavy reliance on momentum and style over substance) as a victory.

On the Dem side of the aisle, Saunders is proving to be a far more formidable opponent for Hilary than seemed the case a few months ago. It appears that the 'socialist' label no longer carries the political suicide baggage it used to carry in US politics and US voters are finally waking up to the fact that many of the Left's core proposals are far more voter-friendly than voter-threatening. Thank heavens for that! Both sides will feel they have won here, with Hilary walking away with a victory on the numbers, even if it is by the tiniest of margins and Saunders' campaign invigorated by a strong showing and voter confirmation that Saunders is a viable candidate with something to offer.

I'm sure voters on both sides of the aisle enjoyed the opportunity to give the 'establishment' a very pleasing kick up its establishment ass. I hope they enjoyed the moment so hugely that they will insist on more of it in the coming months. It might be their only relief from the tedium of a year of candidates promising to be all things to all people and delivering only to the establishment's 1%.

Iowa caucus rules discourage first time voters; iowa is a cultural disadvantage for trump. Trump ought to win NH. The real question is SC.

http://docquery.fec.gov/pres/2015/Q3/
Hillary has spent 25 million in the quarter ending 2015
Bernie has spent 11 million
Cruz spent 7 million
Rubio spent 5 million
Trump spent 4 million

Outside spending:https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/summ.php?cycle=2016&disp=C&type=P
Bush 56 million
Rubio 22 million
Cruz 13 million
Trump 5 million
clinton 2 million
Sanders 2 million

From this I would make a few points.
Bush and clinton both spent eye watering amounts of money. Bush finished as a two percenter - proof that as I said a few months ago that money
was not going to be the deciding issue in this race.

Considering that sanders has spent half what clinton has spent -there is no question he is outperforming on a dollar for dollar basis. But again, it won't be about the money - clinton will spend millions of dollars attempting to move the needle tenths of a percent.

The suprise here financially is just how much rubio is raising as a freshman senator.

Getting back to trump - he's raising more money than he's spending. Getting a second place finish spending the least of all major candidates is.. interesting. Still, trump needs to take more peoples money - if only to deprive others of the oxygen. SC might be difficult for trump - which will raise serious questions about momentum going into Super Tuesday.

Anglicans are strong in SC - they are religious, conservative. How will they break - I rate the state for favorability in running as Cruz, Rubio, Trump. On the democrat side, a majority of voters are black - this race will be safe for clinton.

Interesting that Democrats, 4-1 will vote for a socialist rather than an evangelical.

(in reply to tweakabelle)

Post #: 20

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