NorthernGent1 -> RE: Brexit Vote Results (6/30/2016 1:47:36 PM)
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ORIGINAL: blnymph I think public opinion over here is that (almost) nobody wants the UK to leave. The only thing unpopular about Britain (EU-wise) here is Tory governments with their eternal disagreement about wanting to stay in or to get out for decades. And some might be happy to pay the price of the UK leaving to get finally rid of that nuisance for sure. There are speculations in abundance about how the UK might not leave at all despite the referendum; I think most would be relieved if Brexit would be called off by what ever. But I fear a lot of damage has been done already. The delay in invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty (remember, written into that treaty by the British government then) could just be an attempt to buy some weeks' time, and who knows, to come to senses. The consequences of the 2 years' time running out without a new agreement, meaning the UK falling back to WTO rules, will be disastrous on both sides. Just one thing: There are 30 thousand pages of laws and regulations to work on and re-negotiate - it means 40something pages per day 24/7/365 including coming to mutual agreements ... Now the Tories are telling you it may take a lot longer (I 'd agree for once) - what they seem to "forget" telling you is that a prolongation is a no-veto-decision; if any of the 27 states vetos for whatever reason, even though Germany may not be likely to, it will be the automatic end, and the UK is out without any benefits. If I were a British politician I could not imagine a weaker position for any negotiation. They got you in some REAL mess, for not settling their disputes. And all you 'll gain is, I fear, empty words. I love quotes from history (you did so above, maybe without knowing). For days I got another in my head - its history is infamous, forgive me all for that, but it fits the present situation: "Lions led by donkeys" The quote: "lions led by donkeys" is actually from the Crimean War. A comment Russian soldiers bestowed upon British soldiers, and I think the actual quote was: "lions led by asses". The quote: "lions led by donkeys", as cited by British commentators, sounds good but actually all of the belligerents were in the same boat. No one knew how to win such a war, and the advantage lay with the defenders, a few well placed machine guns could take care of thousands. The first nation to rush headlong into a catastrophe were the French when at the outbreak of war they merrily marched into Germany and were promptly annihilated. The Germans did the same thing at Mons. At that point we were woefully ill prepared and I don't think we even had any machine guns at that point, but the Germans just ran headlong over the fields and a small professional army, much smaller than the German Army running at them, absolutely destroyed them. Just as later in the war British soldiers were cut to pieces by the Germans who when they were dug into defensive positions. So: "lions led by donkeys" did not apply solely to the British, nor is it an appropriate way of looking at because none of them knew how to win that war: it was pretty much unchartered territory. The British don't want to leave the EU at all. Most of us want to leave the EU in its current form, but not the trade opportunities that come with it. There are two issues for us: firstly, we do not want to be part of a political and legal union; secondly, we want control over our borders. Now, whether or not the Germans and associates are prepared to say: "you can have those things", is doubtful, considering the like of Germany and France want it to be a close political union. But, those two issues are where we diverge, and I can't see Britain accepting such a close political union - and so, it will depend upon whether we can achieve further special status. Basically meaning, we want to trade with you and we will share security arrangements - but we don't want to be in a political and legal union with you. For us to be in the EU, we would have to be treated as a special case.
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