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longwayhome -> RE: Did the Phillipine president make a good move? (10/25/2016 1:32:49 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: vincentML
quote:
I think geography has alot to do with it. I also agree that they have (possibly valid) doubts about the US defending them against China. Look at the shit North Korea is doing, and the US isn't bombing them not even thinking about it. Why ?
I have read the opinion that China fears disarray and starvation that may lead to large numbers of NKs to cross the Yalu. NKs have been escaping to China. As a result the US does not wish to make an offensive war without cause. Surely, China would not be happy to press its one carrier group against our eleven groups.
Not sure it is much to do with geography or relative sea power except in the most general sense.
Despite the Chinese incursions onto the Spratly Islands and the subsequent arbitration which China disputes, there are regular patrols by ship and air on behalf of China and NATO countries. Duterte cannot believe that China will suddenly dismantle its military outposts and agree that the islands are part of Palawan, just because he is seen now as being less in America's pocket.
Besides the Pilipinas has to look to maintain good relations with Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia, all of whom would be greatly dismayed at any transfer of influence towards China in the region. In terms of investment, the Pilipinas could benefit from Chinese investment but this would cause internal problems with the business interests of the Chinese diaspora in the country who have chosen over the years not to live in the Chinese Republic for a reason. The well-established American, European and Australian business investment in the country is unlikely to be suppressed but that investment on the most part comes with fewer explicit strings than Chinese government investment, whatever the understandable anti-American sentiment amongst Filipinos.
Duterte would appear to think that he can makes gains by playing superpowers of against each other and therefore become more "independent". Given that Davao province operated as a semi-autonomous fiefdom in the midst of a what amounted to a guerilla war in Mindanao for so many years, he may have the skills to do that. However his erratic political behaviour and the way he has dismantled the basis of law and order by encouraging widespread vigilantism (which it could be argued he did in Davao) do not bode well for the future, including his relationships with other governements.
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