Lucylastic
Posts: 40310
Status: offline
|
Turning out in huge numbers in nevada? hispanics.
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/11/05/nevada-early-voting-ends-major-democratic-advantage-thanks-part-strong-latino-numbers/
Nevada early voting ends with big Democratic advantage, thanks in part to strong Latino numbers
POSTED AT 1:31 PM ON NOVEMBER 5, 2016 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
Share on Facebook 44 44 SHARES
Actual quote from Nevada politics guru Jon Ralston, surveying last night’s final early-voting numbers: “Trump is dead.” That’s overstating it, as we’ll see below on the electoral map, but it ain’t overstating by much. A candidate with a narrow path to 270 can’t afford to see any battleground state slip off the board, even if it’s worth only six EVs. Ralston thought the trends looked bad for Republicans a few days ago, after the first few days of early voting, but allowed for the possibility that GOP turnout might catch up this week. Instead last night’s Democratic turnout was a blockbuster, exceeding even Obama’s 2012 operation in some respects.
We’re well into the phase of the election where bad news from any quarter requires questioning the source’s motives, but Ralston really has no incentive to gamble this much on a prediction unless he’s that confident in it. He predicted in 2010 that Harry Reid would hold onto his Senate seat when many conservatives thought the red wave that year would wipe Reid out and hand his seat to Sharron Angle. Ralston was right. He predicted in 2012 that Obama would defeat Romney in the state but that Republican Dean Heller would win a Senate seat in a nailbiter. Right again. He predicted in 2014 that the big red wave that was brewing would lead to wins for Republicans up and down the ballot in Nevada. Correct. If Trump pulls Nevada out, there’ll be so much egg on his face that he’ll never be able to scrape all of it off. It’ll be a major hit to his reputation as the guy who knows Nevada politics better than anyone. Here he is showing his cards:
Trump’s path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day — and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely — to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid’s Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature…
—-The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall — approaching 73,000 ballots — greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points — right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over…
—-Total turnout without those rurals: 768,000, or 52.5 percent. If overall turnout ends up being 80 percent, that means two thirds of the vote is in — close to 2012. Republicans would have to not only win Election Day by close to double digits to turn around the lead Hillary Clinton almost surely has in early voting, but they would have to astronomically boost turnout. The goal for the Dems during early voting was to bank votes and to boost turnout as high as possible to minimize the number of votes left on Election Day to affect races. Folks, the Reid Machine went out with a bang.
Harry Reid may be a scumbag but the Democratic GOTV operation he’s built in Nevada is enviable. If you’re worried about Hillary and the Democrats out-organizing Trump and the RNC, well, this suggests you should be. Trump fans are answering Ralston on Twitter this morning by arguing that there are plenty of Bernie Sanders fans in Clark County and therefore we can’t assume that Democratic early voters are backing Clinton. Well, in the last CNN poll of the state — which had Trump up seven points, by the way — Clinton won Democrats 93/5. Various other polls lately have showed young adults, who were Bernie’s base, finally swinging around behind her, just as many Republicans who were wary of Trump have finally swung around behind him. That’s what happens in crunch time of an election. It’s highly unlikely that the dregs of the anti-Hillary left will make a difference in the Nevada outcome.
_____________________________
(•_•)
<) )╯SUCH
/ \
\(•_•)
( (> A NASTY
/ \
(•_•)
<) )> WOMAN
/ \
Duchess Of Dissent
Dont Hate Love
|
Trum Rally in North Carolina - 
Profile
New Messages
No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages
Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages
Locked w/o New Messages
Post New Thread