Why the polls were wrong (Full Version)

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heavyblinker -> Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 12:15:43 PM)

I know what the RWNJ reaction will be, but since I already have most of them on ignore anyways I thought I might tell my fellow alt-left extremist socialist communist feminist transgendered terrorists that it looks like Comey's letter played a much bigger role in explaining why Trump and Hillary switched places during the last 9 days of the election:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/conversation-survey-showed-big-shift-to-trump-during_us_58bd9991e4b0ec3d5a6ba0f8

quote:

Most decisively, there was a sudden change in the net sentiment results that followed immediately after FBI Director James Comey released his Oct. 28 letter to Congress about a renewed investigation of Clinton emails. Immediately afterwards, there was a 17-point drop in net sentiment for Clinton, and an 11-point rise for Trump, enough for the two candidates to switch places in the rankings, with Clinton in more negative territory than Trump. At a time when opinion polling showed perhaps a 2-point decline in the margin for Clinton, this conversation data suggests a 28-point change in the word of mouth “standings.” The change in word of mouth favorability metric was stunning, and much greater than the traditional opinion polling revealed.


[img]http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_720_noupscale/58c1877b1d000014007cd792.png[/img]

quote:

Based on this finding, it is our conclusion that the Comey letter, 11 days before the election, was the precipitating event behind Clinton’s loss, despite the letter being effectively retracted less than a week later. In such a close election, there may have been dozens of factors whose absence would have reversed the outcome, such as the influence campaign of the Russian government as detailed by US intelligence services. But the sudden change in the political conversation after the Comey letter suggest it was the single, most indispensable factor in the surprise election result.

This conclusion helps us to understand how it is possible that the polls were generally correct about a Clinton lead through most of the campaign, but nevertheless Trump still won because of a late October surprise. In other words, pollsters and the media were likely correct that Clinton was “winning” during most of the campaign.


The RWNJs will just ignore it in favor of predictable insults and the like, but the article is really worth reading. It was written by a consumer researcher.




BoscoX -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 12:30:36 PM)

Comey - the guy who demanded that the Justice Department deny that Obama wiretapped the Trump campaign.

Still waiting on that btw

I like that HuffnPoo admits that your Russian conspiracy hysteria was meaningless to the outcome

Thanks for the news





heavyblinker -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 12:53:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: BoscoX

Comey - the guy who demanded that the Justice Department deny that Obama wiretapped the Trump campaign.

Still waiting on that btw

I like that HuffnPoo admits that your Russian conspiracy hysteria was meaningless to the outcome

Thanks for the news


So yeah, nowhere in the article did they say Russian hacking didn't play a role. It might not have tipped the balance, but it certainly played a role. And I don't know why you think it's 'my' conspiracy-- the FBI and CIA both have come to the conclusion that it occurred.

I don't know what Comey's deal is, all that we know is that his letter tipped the balance. Whatever reason he had for doing it remains to be seen.

I don't know why I'm even explaining this to you-- it's not like you're going to understand and anyone who reads your misreading/delusions isn't going to be convinced by them unless they're already on board in the first place.

I gotta tell you though-- the reason you're pretty much the only RWNJ I don't currently have on hide is because your posts are so absurd they actually manage to be entertaining. You and RM share that honor. BamaD used to make me laugh too but the endless strawmen and the impossibility of communication became too much to take.

I guess it's time for you to be happy about the outcome of the election, and dream of the glorious American Reich to come, where liberals are at least viciously shunned if not exterminated on sight/exiled to Venezuela.




Kirata -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 1:12:52 PM)


Yeah, they were right except they were wrong. Jeez, some people need to grow a second brain cell. Look at the chart: Clinton's "net sentiment" rating took an even bigger dive (-26 points vs -17 points) after the Billy Bush tapes! If events during the campaign that hurt Clinton helped Trump, and vice versa, there would be a meaningful degree of correlation between those ratings sequences. There isn't any. The correlation is only -0.0595. The candidates ended up where they did on their own.

K.












Nnanji -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 1:53:37 PM)

Frankly I hope this is widely desiminated and believed on the left. They still, obviously, don't understand why Clinton (the rape apologist) lost and they'll keep up the shit that lost this election for them. Have at it lefties.




Nnanji -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 1:58:32 PM)

It's funny though, half of the left's get out the vote drive admitted most people didn't really pay attention to the election noise until just before the election takes place. What this curve shows is just that. Just before the election people paid attention for a few days. Hey, but don't let me dissuade anyone on the left from thinking Clinton (the rape apologist) lost the election because of something outside her campaign that she had no control over.




klmpong -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 2:16:00 PM)

What cost the bitch the election was the exposing of the TRUTH.
That is what is confusing the no-minds. They don't recognize it.
The democrats are a dead party. They won't see the white house again for at least 20 years , if ever.
In four years we'll have the illegal vote under control and the brainwashing of our children will be minimized by school choice.
All they have is whining, lying, excusing, subversion and treason,.....and ALL of the voters are growing really tired of it.




heavyblinker -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 2:24:06 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: klmpong
What cost the bitch the election was the exposing of the TRUTH.
That is what is confusing the no-minds. They don't recognize it.
The democrats are a dead party. They won't see the white house again for at least 20 years , if ever.
In four years we'll have the illegal vote under control and the brainwashing of our children will be minimized by school choice.
All they have is whining, lying, excusing, subversion and treason,.....and ALL of the voters are growing really tired of it.


This actually made me laugh harder than SNL Donald Trump.
Keep 'em coming!




Nnanji -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 2:26:23 PM)

The Democrats said roughly the same thing when Obama was just elected and they held both houses of congress. Never fall in love with any politician, they'll all fuck you. Yes, the Republicans have an historic opportunity now. But, they can easily fuck it up too. Let's not gloat. Let's hold our politicians feet to the fire the same as the alt-left is doing.




Nnanji -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 2:28:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

quote:

ORIGINAL: klmpong
What cost the bitch the election was the exposing of the TRUTH.
That is what is confusing the no-minds. They don't recognize it.
The democrats are a dead party. They won't see the white house again for at least 20 years , if ever.
In four years we'll have the illegal vote under control and the brainwashing of our children will be minimized by school choice.
All they have is whining, lying, excusing, subversion and treason,.....and ALL of the voters are growing really tired of it.


This actually made me laugh harder than SNL Donald Trump.
Keep 'em coming!

Then I guess you were rolling on the floor eight years ago when every little left wing Slong was saying the same sort of stuff. Or, is it just funny to you when the other side does it?




heavyblinker -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 3:07:52 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji
Then I guess you were rolling on the floor eight years ago when every little left wing Slong was saying the same sort of stuff. Or, is it just funny to you when the other side does it?


The thing about 'every little left wing Slong' is that they are in fact just a stereotype that you keep in your head so you can pretend reality is whatever you want it to be whenever it's convenient for you.

Calling 80,000 votes in the rust belt and a loss of the popular vote the death of the democrats is objectively stupid. Obama's win was a lot more than that, but whatever-- yes, it was dumb to think it was the beginning of a new era, or that everything was going to be perfect from that point on.

I honestly don't know who you were talking to when you heard all of this 'GOP is finished' stuff in 2009, but it wasn't me or anyone I know. People forget pretty easily... the GOP came back, and so will the Dems, assuming the US doesn't completely collapse in spectacular, apocalyptic fashion-- it's really not so unthinkable.

We all know that 2009 was when the GOP began to mutate away from the unpopular Bush-era neoconservative thing and embraced its inner freakshow of Alex Jones followers, religious lunatics and let's-not-call-ourselves-neo-nazis... and now that's who is in charge of the country and you think this is great because you like that you just barely won a contest. Apparently your prize is still being angry and mocking the left just like you did before the election.

I really hope the Democrats can resist the urge to delve into counter-freakshow territory but who the fuck knows. I don't really see the same freakshow elements present... Bernie is more like proto-freakshow.

How about instead of all of this neoliberalism lite plus stuff, they go all the way to a party of radical environmentalists, militant feminists, black panthers, Stalinists and... err... how do we make atheism threatening? Ummm... maybe they could be Zen Buddhist extremists or something. Buddhist extremists who support submission to Islam.

Maybe we can let Alex Jones and Rush Limbaugh dictate what both mainstream political parties should be like from now on? That would be awesome... really fun to watch. You can support everything they say, and we can be everything they want us to be. It's win-win.

If the Dems can get to the point where they're loud, flashy and dangerous enough, then maybe people will actually vote for them because they represent real change. It doesn't matter if the change is good or bad, all that matters is that it's different.

Americans are too fucking stupid to be able to make informed decisions, which means even pretend democracy can't work. If there was a party that could give them everything they needed, they would think it was boring and ignore it. So we might as well embrace whatever this system is and watch it all go up in flames, sort of like that guy in Idiocracy who cheered the destruction of his own car because it looked so fucking cool.

I hope Oprah runs in 2020.




Aylee -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 3:44:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji

The Democrats said roughly the same thing when Obama was just elected and they held both houses of congress. Never fall in love with any politician, they'll all fuck you. Yes, the Republicans have an historic opportunity now. But, they can easily fuck it up too. Let's not gloat. Let's hold our politicians feet to the fire the same as the alt-left is doing.


There is a reason that I call the GOPe the "stupid party.: They are completely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory every time.




Hillwilliam -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 4:46:10 PM)

The reason Hillary lost is that she is possibly the most unlikeable person that has ever run for the office.




MrRodgers -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 5:12:06 PM)

Obviously, some polls weren't wrong.

By your graph and the obvious changes in it as reflected by engagement labs...was not wrong.

Maybe some polls even most, didn't pick up this shift.

Obviously, some did and if most polls didn't...shame on them.




Termyn8or -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/12/2017 7:54:46 PM)

FR

Bunch of shit. There were many people who simply would never vote for Hillary Clinton. Ever. Period. The republicans could have run an alligator and won.

And who made that graph, that a fifth grader should be able to do ? Plus, the data are probably faulty. Plus, the Russians have never been proven to have anything to do with it.

The usual liberal shit, and it is never going to stop until they die off.

Liberals do not belong in this country, they should move to Britain or something, somewhere in Europe where the government has not yet run out of other people's money.

The trend toward liberalism is because of the promise of a free ride. Well, real math says it cannot go on forever. Eventually you have to do some real work, not write TV ads or whatever. I mean PRODUCE SOMETHING. Learn to drive a tractor or run a lathe or something like that. Where do you think all these products come from ? You think your new SUV grew on a tree and some Mexican just picked it ? Fuck no.

T^T




heavyblinker -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/13/2017 1:03:03 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

FR

Bunch of shit. There were many people who simply would never vote for Hillary Clinton. Ever. Period. The republicans could have run an alligator and won.

And who made that graph, that a fifth grader should be able to do ? Plus, the data are probably faulty. Plus, the Russians have never been proven to have anything to do with it.

The usual liberal shit, and it is never going to stop until they die off.

Liberals do not belong in this country, they should move to Britain or something, somewhere in Europe where the government has not yet run out of other people's money.

The trend toward liberalism is because of the promise of a free ride. Well, real math says it cannot go on forever. Eventually you have to do some real work, not write TV ads or whatever. I mean PRODUCE SOMETHING. Learn to drive a tractor or run a lathe or something like that. Where do you think all these products come from ? You think your new SUV grew on a tree and some Mexican just picked it ? Fuck no.

T^T


How could anyone possibly read a comment like this and say that stupidity wasn't a huge factor in this election?




bounty44 -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/13/2017 4:55:11 AM)

seems like this might fit well here:

oh no comrades, townhall!

"Democrats Seek To Escape Their Whirlpool Of Failure And Fail At That Too"

quote:

As Donald Trump triumphantly passed his 50th day as the President of the United States Who Is Not Hillary Clinton, Democrat leaders secretly gathered to survey the smoking wreckage of a party that was supposed to dominate America for a generation and ended up only dominating it until midnight on November 8, 2016.

Chuck Schumer approached the podium to address the gathering, his voice a bit hoarse from his recent phone call "thanking" Harry Reid for the Reid Rule.

“We need to be honest,” said Schumer, to widespread laughter. “No, no, I mean with ourselves. Come on, get real – what did you think I was saying? Anyway, we need to take an honest look at the aftermath of the Obama administration and how it left the party weak and…”

“That’s racist!” said Maxine Waters.

“And Islamophobic!” Keith Ellison added.

“Yes, very true. I acknowledge my pallor and phallo privileges,” Schumer replied, placating the two chairs of the Democrat Jewish Outreach Committee. “I mean, of course Obama left our party in terrific shape. We Democrats are stronger than ever. Sure, we lost the White House, but it wasn’t because of Obama or Hillary. It was, uh … the Russians …”

“Plus racism,” said Maxine Waters.

“And Islamophobia,” Keith Ellison added.

“So, so true. And we didn’t lose Congress during the Obama era. We simply became more…elite. More selective. And all those lost seats in the Jesusland states? Maxine, your thoughts?”

“I’ll go with racism,” said Maxine Waters.

“And Islamophobia,” Keith Ellison added.

“We all acknowledge that Obama was a huge success. That fact is beyond debate, like global warming and that men can become women just by wanting to. But now we have to protect his greatest achievement. Nancy, you’ve spearheaded our Save Obamacare working group…Nancy? Nancy! You can watch the squirrels play later.”

Nancy Pelosi turned back from the window and stood up to address the assembled Democrats. “Our working group reviewed the new Republican health plan and we can't find anything wrong with it. It still gives free stuff to people who don’t want to support themselves, so I’m kind of at a loss at how to criticize it.”

“Well, it’s clearly racist,” said Maxine Waters.

“And Islamophobic,” Keith Ellison added.

“Also, cis-het and transphobic,” interjected Martin O’Malley.

“Put your damn shirt back on, Marty,” Chuck Schumer yelled. “I’m not telling you again!”

An elderly, angry-looking woman stood up. “I’m a journalist, and I’m only here as an objective observer,” Andrea Mitchell said. “But it’s obvious that the Trump administration is Hitler reborn and we must work together to destroy it.”

“Hear, hear!” said the CNN contingent as one. Keith Ellison furrowed his brow, whispering to Maxine Waters, “Wait, is she saying Hitler was bad?”

Pelosi piped up again. "It seems very clear that the key to Trump’s success was hats. Many, many hats. The poors love hats! So we need hats too, and they should have a catchy message, one that sums up where we stand as liberals. Trump has red ones that say ‘Make America Great Again,’ but ours should be blue and say ‘America Is A Cesspit Of Racist/Sexist/Transphobic Hate Crimes Thanks To You Jesus-Hugging Idiots, So Submit To Our Commands.’”

They loved the idea, but Pelosi's slogan wouldn't fit; the hats, made in Mexico, would read “Obey Us, Peasants.”

“This innovative headgear will go a long way to reaching the Christian, gun-loving, job-having America-liking dummies we need to convince to vote Democrat in 2020!” said Democratic National Committee Chairbeing Tom Perez. “I can ask Chelsea to wear one and maybe get some favorable press coverage!”

“There’s no ‘maybe’ about it!” replied the CNN contingent as one. “Breaking news, here we come!”

But not everyone was pleased.

“Hats are racist,” said Maxine Waters.

“And Islamophobic,” Keith Ellison added.

“Noted!” Schumer said, “Now, we will hear from our Native American caucus."

“I hate Trump more than I hate John Wayne!” roared Elizabeth Warren. The crowd murmured at her impactful premise.

“Now it’s about to get real,” purred Tom Perez. Warren continued.

“As my people often say, during times of trouble, the Great Bear Spirit inspires braves and squaws alike to resist and…persist.” She winked. The crowd clapped politely.

Chuck Schumer rolled his eyes. How long was Big Chief Talking Bull going to milk that line? Plus, he still resented having to show solidarity by getting a “She Persisted” tramp stamp.

“There’s our 2020 nominee!” said Tom Perez. “An elderly, condescending leftist woman from the Northeast – how can that possibly go wrong?”

“Our path is one of obstruction,” Warren said, gesturing broadly with her dainty professor’s hands. “It worked for the Republicans when they obstructed Obama from doing things that the people did not want done, and it will work for us obstructing things the people do want done…hold on, I think I got that backwards. We should obstruct…uh…hmmm. Wait, I hear the wind calling and I must answer!” Warren darted out of the hall.

Bernie Sanders stood up. “Has anyone seen my shoe? I had my shoe when I came in and now it’s gone. It was a brown shoe and now I can’t find my shoe.”

Nancy Pelosi rose to speak again. “As a San Francisco Democrat, I don’t think anyone can compete with my understanding of the poor people I fly over every weekend. Somehow, we’ve lost touch with our roots among the working class Americans who made America –“

“Racist?” asked Maxine Waters.

“Islamophobic?” Keith Ellison inquired.

"Precisely! But since we’ve ruled out the possibility of secession for now since we don’t believe in guns and not having food, we need to get these knuckle-draggers back on the plantation and the best way to do that is by leveraging the influence and star power of our friends in the world of entertainment and pop culture. And who better connects with normal, working Americans than our next guest? Ladies, gentlemen and otherkin, please welcome Lena Dunham!”

“Hi everyone!” said Dunham, who was wearing a pink knit genital beanie and a $2,000 crop-top designer t-shirt that read, “Your Penis Is A Hate Crime.” “I’d like to start off with a little story about me and my smoking hot sister…”

“Thank you, Lena Dunham!” said Chuck Schumer. “Look Lena, there’s a table full of muffins. You can go have a snack and a chat with Michael Moore. Okay, now we have a surprise for you, a very special guest, the woman who won the popular vote and therefore should be the president except for the Electoral College –“

“Which is racist,” said Maxine Waters.

“And Islamophobic,” Keith Ellison added.

“It sure is! I am proud to introduce President-select Hillary Clinton!” The crowd clapped politely as Hillary staggered to the podium, spilling some of her Crown Royal.

“Donald Trump thinks he’s so smart!” she yelled, putting her tumbler on the podium and gripping it for support. “Well, let me tell you something. I’ll tell all of you something! I won New York and California by a lot! Of votes! A lot of votes!” She took another sip and the clink of the ice cubes echoed across the room. “And Bill, oh, he’s soooo supportive. ‘Oh Hillary, don’t worry, it’s all right.’ But where is he every night? With his tramps! And another thing...”

Schumer approached her smiling, “Well, thank you –“

“Shut up, you lizard!” Hillary shouted, taking another swig. “That shoulda been me in the White House! Me! It was mine! You promised me!” she shrieked, pointing a boney finger at the CNN contingent. The CNN contingent as one hung their heads in shame; Don Lemon mouthed the words "Forgive me."

“And I woulda shown those Trump-voting jerks! I’d have shown all of them! They’d have paid! They’d have to do more than just bake cakes if I was president, and it wouldn’t have just been she-males tinkling around their daughters! But you know why I really lost?”

“Racism?” asked Maxine Waters.

“Islamophobia?” Ellison inquired.

“Yeah, racecars and agoraphobia, but mostly sexism! I’m a girl, you know! Not like Bill says, with his tramps! Well, two can play at that game! Come on, O’Malley, get that Van Heusen off and dance for me! Dance for your First Woman President!”

As Schumer helped Hillary away from the podium, Tom Perez took over and smiled. “We’re so totally going win in 2020!”


https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2017/03/13/democrats-seek-to-escape-their-whirlpool-of-failure-and-fail-at-that-too-n2297884




BoscoX -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/13/2017 5:35:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

How could anyone possibly read a comment like this and say that stupidity wasn't a huge factor in this election?


You came up with a poll that is accurate AFTER the election, and that makes you a genius




heavyblinker -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/13/2017 5:40:09 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BoscoX


quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

How could anyone possibly read a comment like this and say that stupidity wasn't a huge factor in this election?


You came up with a poll that is accurate AFTER the election, and that makes you a genius


Is there even a single post on this forum that doesn't fly over your head?

The polls were conducted during the election, the interpretation of the data was brought to the media's attention after the fact.




Musicmystery -> RE: Why the polls were wrong (3/13/2017 5:46:54 AM)

That's actually the point right there -- the media's interpretation vs. what the polls actually showed giving the statistical margin of error.

All kinds of crazy predictive models were drawn based on nothing but a poor understanding of statistics, then reported as fact.




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