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RE: Election Predictions - 11/3/2006 8:26:33 PM   
Marc2b


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The economy, despite the doom and gloom pronouncements of the media, is doing well right now, stock market up, unemployment down, gas prices down, etc. Despite this there is amongst the Republicans I know a silent but growing discontent with the leadership of Bush and the Republican Congressional leaders. They are widely regarded as ineffectual, if not incompetent, and ultimately damaging to the party. They remain loyal to the party and its principles – they’re just unhappy with the leadership. As I see it, there are two questions to be asked. The first question is: is this a national trend? If so, then the second question is: will these discontented Republicans stay home on election day? The Democrats I know are all determined to vote so if the Republicans stay home the Democrats will take both the House and Senate.  Not by much, diehard Republicans will still come out, but they will take the majority. If they do come out then the Republicans should hang on to both although they will probably lose seats in both. A split Congress is certainly possible and may not be such a bad thing because it forces both parties to compromise with each other if they want to get anything done – in other words, a more middle of the road approach to things. It will be interesting to see what happens.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/3/2006 8:34:03 PM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Marc2b

The economy, despite the doom and gloom pronouncements of the media, is doing well right now, stock market up, unemployment down, gas prices down, etc. Despite this there is amongst the Republicans I know a silent but growing discontent with the leadership of Bush and the Republican Congressional leaders. They are widely regarded as ineffectual, if not incompetent, and ultimately damaging to the party. They remain loyal to the party and its principles – they’re just unhappy with the leadership. As I see it, there are two questions to be asked. The first question is: is this a national trend? If so, then the second question is: will these discontented Republicans stay home on election day? The Democrats I know are all determined to vote so if the Republicans stay home the Democrats will take both the House and Senate.  Not by much, diehard Republicans will still come out, but they will take the majority. If they do come out then the Republicans should hang on to both although they will probably lose seats in both. A split Congress is certainly possible and may not be such a bad thing because it forces both parties to compromise with each other if they want to get anything done – in other words, a more middle of the road approach to things. It will be interesting to see what happens.


Interesting post, Marc2b.  I had a comment about your statement that both parties will be forced to compromise with each other.

When the Democrats controlled both houses, Congress generally ran in this fashion.  But with Gingrich and DeLay's tactics of verbally abusing and bludgeoning everybody in Congress into submission, along with alienating and discrediting the Democrats, I am a lot more doubtful that things will happen the way you say they will happen.

As you can see from the last 8 years, Congress can do nothing and the economy will tend to limp along. 

What is going to end up happening is that the Republicans will learn the lesson "The toes you step on today may be connected to the ass you have to kiss tomorrow" the hard way, since all they have done for years is stomp on Democratic toes.

Even if the Republican's retain control, at the rate they are being ridden out of town on a rail for their scandals (1 every month) how long do you think they will maintain their numerical superiority?

Sinergy

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/3/2006 10:20:50 PM   
subfever


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ToGiveDivine

The Democrats in Chicago aren't upset by this either - their battle cry is "Vote Early, Vote Often"

And yes, Chicago still has the most corrupt voting practices in the country, bar none - I love this State.


Um... Chicago is a city...

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/3/2006 10:33:16 PM   
subfever


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I predict that we will see very few changes, if any. Regardless of whether the Republicans or the Democrats win the majority, their smoke and mirrors will continue to well-deflect the masses. 

We will continue to see more jawboning about addressing symptoms instead of identifying and addressing the source of the problems.

The pigs will remain at the trough, and the people will continue to accept their pigcrap... as usual.  

< Message edited by subfever -- 11/3/2006 10:35:44 PM >

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 6:05:19 AM   
Manawyddan


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I predict the Republicans will maintain, if not increase their majority, and the election will have been rigged.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 6:10:10 AM   
mnottertail


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I predict there will be an election.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 6:49:18 AM   
Level


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

I predict there will be an election.


LOL Ron, and I predict it will occur on November 7th.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 8:44:42 AM   
LotusSong


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Politics are like a parade.  Unfortunately, the Democrats who follow the Elephants will have to pick up the shit.  Whoever gets in will have to have a strong stomach.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 9:57:03 AM   
Level


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LotusSong

Politics are like a parade.  Unfortunately, the Democrats who follow the Elephants will have to pick up the shit.  Whoever gets in will have to have a strong stomach.


Agreed, and an even stronger will, to face out rapidly approaching economic crisis.

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Fake the heat and scratch the itch
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Let go it's harder holding on
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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 10:01:15 AM   
LTRsubNW


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LotusSong

I predict both houses will by 75% Democrat after this election.   What's YOUR prediction?


I predict that when it's all over and done with, one side will have more than the other.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 11:17:29 AM   
LotusSong


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LTRsubNW

quote:

ORIGINAL: LotusSong

I predict both houses will by 75% Democrat after this election.   What's YOUR prediction?


I predict that when it's all over and done with, one side will have more than the other.
Anyone know what the Las Vegas Odds are?

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 12:43:06 PM   
LotusSong


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The Crystal Ball Predictions:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006110201

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 3:29:44 PM   
saskslave


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LotusSong:
quote:

I predict both houses will by 75% Democrat after this election.

75%?!  Well, I give you dibs for being optimistic for your side.
quote:

What's YOUR prediction?
 
The Dems will take the House, but Repubs hold the Senate. 
More dead people will vote Democrat (that's not just an American thing; dead people vote Liberal in Canada too).
After Kerry's insult to the troops, the Dems will sink even lower than they did in 2000, and use every trick in the book to disqualify oversea military votes--because they know the military votes 80% Republican.
When the Dems do not take control of Congress, they will attribute it to "voter disenfranchisement" and rigged voting machines.
Then the rage will bubble over...and progressive liberals will show their legendary "tolerance", and lash out at rednecked homophobes from "Jesusland" who are just too goshdarned stupid to understand that progressive liberals know what is good for them.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 3:34:53 PM   
LotusSong


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I think I'm the ONLY One in America that got Kerry's joke.
 
After the  report on the recruiters.. I'm sure the troops got it also.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 4:03:20 PM   
saskslave


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John Kerry made an appearance on Conan O'Brien yesterday:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=t4Uf3PpaDT8

Warning:  this 22 second clip is spew material.  Do not imbibe any liquids before or during this clip.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 6:55:30 PM   
MmakeMme


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I have become almost entirely apolitical. It doesn't matter who is in office - politicians (and there are exceptions to the rule, I know) are self-serving. Period.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 7:12:57 PM   
Marc2b


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quote:

Interesting post, Marc2b. I had a comment about your statement that both parties will be forced to compromise with each other.

When the Democrats controlled both houses, Congress generally ran in this fashion. But with Gingrich and DeLay's tactics of verbally abusing and bludgeoning everybody in Congress into submission, along with alienating and discrediting the Democrats, I am a lot more doubtful that things will happen the way you say they will happen.

As you can see from the last 8 years, Congress can do nothing and the economy will tend to limp along.

What is going to end up happening is that the Republicans will learn the lesson "The toes you step on today may be connected to the ass you have to kiss tomorrow" the hard way, since all they have done for years is stomp on Democratic toes.

Even if the Republican's retain control, at the rate they are being ridden out of town on a rail for their scandals (1 every month) how long do you think they will maintain their numerical superiority?


This might sound like I am insulting you and I am not. No insult is intended. Rather this is an observation based upon available (admittedly limited) evidence. I believe you are seeing the situation through what I like to call the Ideological Filter (I am sure I am not the first person to use the term, though). In short, people tend to dismiss anything that impacts their world view negatively and to amplify that which impacts it positively. Likewise they dismiss anything that makes opposing world views look good and amplify anything that makes the opposition look bad. I claim no immunity from this myself but I do try to fight against it. Yes the Republicans have been "verbally abusing and bludgeoning" and "alienating and discrediting the Democrats" but the Democrats have been doing the same to the Republicans and this has been going on ever since there were political parties. Shut off the Ideological Filter and you will see that both parties routinely lie about and smear each other. They call each other names (Pinko! Nazi!) Both attribute the other party’s motives to nefarious intent. They screech and scream about the other party’s scandals while covering up or excusing their own. One can see this all over the media but the best place to see it in action is on Hannity and Colmes. Every episode of Hannity (I guess he won the coin toss, huh?) and Colmes can be boiled down to the following:

Hannity (to conservative guest): "Liberals are a bunch of stupid people who hate America, aren’t they?"

Conservative Guest: "Yes, Sean, they are, and you forgot to say that they are also perverts who enjoy killing babies."

Colmes (to liberal guest): "Conservatives are just a bunch of evil rich white people who exploit others for their own gains, aren’t they?"

Liberal Guest: "Absolutely Alan, they won’t be happy until every non-white male has only dirt to eat and a cardboard box for a home. They also want to cut down every tree and poison all the water and air."

After that the charges of hypocrisy start flying back and forth.  The irony lost on all.

No, as I see it, the Democrats and the Republicans have been stepping on each others toes for quite some time. They have been kissing each other’s ass for quite some time too. The one area where the two Parties are truly bipartisan is in the trading of pork barrel projects. My cousin worked in Washington for several years as a researcher in a lobbying firm and he said that "vote for my pork barrel and I’ll vote for yours" wasn’t just rampant but routine. He’s told me that he witnessed millions of dollars and thousands of jobs being decided by a poker game complete with a gourmet buffet, five hundred dollar cigars, thousand dollar champagne and strippers (before anyone asks, my cousin has never named names).

So, I suppose, that ultimately there will be little change regardless of who wins what in the election. Still, for all their similarities the two parties do differ in their world view and so support different social initiatives that the other side hates. Very often the country is equally divided and no true majority supports either of the parties’ world view. Put forth a new tax cut or a new spending measure and half the country is sure to be pissed off about it. When one party is in control it is easier for them to move forward on their issues, leaving one side feeling victorious and smug and the other left out and frustrated. In a split congress compromises must be made ("sure you can have that spending bill but we’re not going to let you have that much and we want some defense spending increases"). This way, nobody is happy – the hallmark of a true compromise.

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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 7:24:38 PM   
Sinergy


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Hello Marc2b,

I am not taking what you state as an insult.  Far from it; I enjoy learning about things from both people I agree with as well as people I may not agree with. 

Much of my comments actually were summed up quite succinctly in Matt Taibbi's article about Congress several issues ago.  Congress 30 years ago involved Democrats and Republicans being forced to interact, share mistresses, go golfing with, etc., in order to make laws happen.

What Gingrich and DeLay ushered in once the Republican's gained control of both houses was to adopt a "fuck you" attitude towards anybody who they could not count on to support their bill.  Win by one or two votes, and screw everybody else.  To summarize:  The Republicans destroyed the spirit of compromise when they took control of both houses.

Now the chickens have come home to roost for them.  What I imagine most of them fear is the Democrats (after taking control of both houses of Congress) doing to them what they have been doing to the Democrats for the last few years.

I find it fascinating.

As far as ideological bias, I am not particularly a Democrat or a Republican.  When people try to pin me down I generally brush off the question with the comment that I exist somewhere out on the lunatic fringe on the left side of the political spectrum.

Just me, could be wrong, but there you go.

Sinergy

edited to add comments about compromise

< Message edited by Sinergy -- 11/4/2006 7:26:16 PM >


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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 7:46:19 PM   
mnottertail


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You know, this country is too powerful and too hip to take a fuckin' joke.............brining enlightenment to the world since our inception, not all bad,..........

Economy is good, shit, people make about one third of what they did in the 80s, but if you had a waffle to stick up your ass, you could get a loan at 21 percent, reagan made the world a fiscally responsible place when he lowered interest rates to 16% and the bank would sniff up your very asshole to insure you cou ld pay them back...........so that was a pretty good deal...........

Now, it seems that we are confronted with a legal question, those republicans who suck dicks, are asking us to vote for a woman and man kinda marraige cause they dowanna have the government sanction it.........

the democrats appear to suck dick without regard to race, religion, creed or color........

Which of these cocksuckers should I vote for, I am so confused, the values and the future of humanity tips on such a scale..........

Ron


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RE: Election Predictions - 11/4/2006 9:40:32 PM   
Marc2b


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quote:

Hello Marc2b,

I am not taking what you state as an insult... etc. 

I think you and I are in agreement about everything here except one thing. It is my contention that the Republicans’ "fuck you" attitude toward the Democrats is nothing new. That the Democrats, when they last controlled the House had a "fuck you" attitude toward the Republicans. The two parties have always had a "fuck you" attitude toward each other, at least during working hours. After hours they got together at those poker parties (and golf trips, etc.). One of the things that astounded my cousin was how two men, who had been saying nasty things about each other only hours earlier, could now be back slapping each other while getting drunk (and trading votes on pork barrel projects), and would go back to saying nasty things the next day.

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