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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 4:48:45 PM   
Level


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quote:

ORIGINAL: WyrdRich

    I just read a great piece on Civilization Watch by Orson Scott Card (dated oct. 29 06).  Man I wish I was better with a 'puter and could post a link, because he nails it.


Damn, I'm good.
 
http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2006-10-29-1.html

_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 4:56:59 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		Re: Orson Scott Card.............what a crock of pure and unadulterated horseshit.

This self admitted democrat is trying to terrorize the republican party...............

Had I known that ignorance, falsehood, unprincipled an illogical conclusions were considered genius and insightful, expecially in the face of daunting evidence to the contrary, I would have become a whore and told dimwits their dicks were the biggest I have ever seen and made some real money..........

He is underutilizing his oral talent in a big way, such a shame.

Ron


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Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 5:00:05 PM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

This self admitted democrat is trying to terrorize the republican party...............



The rat bastard!

No self-respecting Republican would ever resort to trying to terrorize the Democratic Par...

Wait.  Hmm.  Move along, nothing to see here.

Sinergy

_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 5:04:40 PM   
Level


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Status: offline 		A short reply to the OP: I'd have a Come To Jesus Meeting with the top brass and see what they think. Maybe send another 100,000 troops, jump start the training over there, get the Iraqis up to snuff sooner than later. See what the James Baker led think tank says, and see if there's something there to help. If we split the country into 3 parts, no one is really going to be happy.... the Turks will pitch a fit over the Kurds, the Sunnis will be without much of the nation's oil, the Shia's will be faced with being independent, or hooking up with Iran.
 
If we bail now, Iran will have a puppet government set up within a year.

_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 5:09:59 PM   
Mercnbeth


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

A short reply to the OP: I'd have a Come To Jesus Meeting with the top brass and see what they think. Maybe send another 100,000 troops, jump start the training over there, get the Iraqis up to snuff sooner than later. See what the James Baker led think tank says, and see if there's something there to help. If we split the country into 3 parts, no one is really going to be happy.... the Turks will pitch a fit over the Kurds, the Sunnis will be without much of the nation's oil, the Shia's will be faced with being independent, or hooking up with Iran.
 
If we bail now, Iran will have a puppet government set up within a year.

Level,
Don't like my "parting gifts" idea huh?

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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 5:15:40 PM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

If we bail now, Iran will have a puppet government set up within a year.



I used to write contract proposals to build computer designs in Aerospaz.

I would do my homework.  Work out how much it would cost to do the thing right.  Take it in to a meeting with a bunch of suit-wearing nitwits in middle management who would sit there and shout it down because it cost too much money.

I would listen to them for a while until they asked me to say something, and I would point out to them that they could pay X amount of money to do the job right and end up with a system that works, or they could add Y (being the cost of doing it wrong) to X (the cost of doing it right) to end up with a system that worked.

X is always a smaller amount of money than X+Y, but apparently promotion to middle management requires a lobotomy to the part of the brain responsible for math functions.

In one case, I was shouted down after I wrote a white paper suggesting that we utilize an off the shelf hardware type to replace a single vendor piece of junk.  This was shouted down and the single vendor solution was put into place.

Four years later they asked me to lead a team to implement the solution I wrote the white paper about because apparently the single vendor P.O.S. didnt work.  I politely declined and said that everything I had to say about it was in my white paper.

So the question I would ask the stay the course crowd is how much money do they want to waste trying to stay the course, before the reality of the costs and futility of rebuilding the country cause us to leave with our tails between our legs.

X (cost we have already spent) is less money than X + Y (amount of money we waste before reality forces us to come home anyway)  We are no closer to establishing order in Iraq now than we were 4 years ago, regardless of what you hear on Faux news.

Sinergy


_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 5:28:02 PM   
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

A short reply to the OP: I'd have a Come To Jesus Meeting with the top brass and see what they think. Maybe send another 100,000 troops, jump start the training over there, get the Iraqis up to snuff sooner than later. See what the James Baker led think tank says, and see if there's something there to help. If we split the country into 3 parts, no one is really going to be happy.... the Turks will pitch a fit over the Kurds, the Sunnis will be without much of the nation's oil, the Shia's will be faced with being independent, or hooking up with Iran.
 
If we bail now, Iran will have a puppet government set up within a year.

Level,
Don't like my "parting gifts" idea huh?


Evening, Merc. No, I wouldn't want to leave those kind of parting gifts . I realize we may not be able to stop the spread of nukes in the area, but I would try to do so.... I don't think the MAD theory would work, as Iran's Ahmadinejad is a bit too zealous, and if we left, he would have control over part, if not all, of Iraq, eliminating any deterrant (sp?).




_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

(in reply to Mercnbeth)
Profile   Post #: 47
RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 5:30:25 PM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		Well, why is it a big deal if the Iranians set up a puppet government or we do?  Theirs would be accepted.......ours never will be.........and we ain't having any real trouble with the Iranians anyway....they are coming to center, and I frankly can't see why they can't have nuclear power, the wasteful oil power is gladly consumed by this country, and it aint like they got all kinda aswan dams just running around the area, they need electricity........

Insofar as anyones ties to terrorists, that shit gotta stop and I am all for a war on terrorism , if we fight the goddamn thing........but that is strictly and only a war of realpolitik (as the russians coined it)........you walk in and slaughter the dogs as has been suggested and fuck world opinion, and set them back in the stoneage and insure that your money goes right the fuck where you want it to go in terms of aid and you install a military american government, anything short of that is Vietnam.........supporting regeimes that are not working in your best interest, and carrying the brunt of the task until they are ready to stand on their own two feet and support themselves is untenable........

Read Machiavelli, (who we have agreed before, got a bad rap), Clausewitz, Musashi, Sun Tzu, or any number of ancient war experts, because they are right, and the world has not changed and that is an ancient war we are fighting there............

When your allies are your enemy, you don't imbed them or train them............

Always be able to kill your students (Dr. Maasaki Hatsumi and Takamatsu Sensei, et al.)  

Remember, hogs get slaughtered.  Cows that stay inside the fence only get tipped.

Enough,


Ron


_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


(in reply to Sinergy)
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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 5:32:30 PM   
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

If we bail now, Iran will have a puppet government set up within a year.




So the question I would ask the stay the course crowd is how much money do they want to waste trying to stay the course, before the reality of the costs and futility of rebuilding the country cause us to leave with our tails between our legs.

X (cost we have already spent) is less money than X + Y (amount of money we waste before reality forces us to come home anyway)  We are no closer to establishing order in Iraq now than we were 4 years ago, regardless of what you hear on Faux news.

Sinergy



I think the reason things still are fucked up over there is due to piss-poor management; take Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld out of the equation, and get bright and determined folks in charge, and I have some confidence that things could be made somewhat right over there.
 
I do think it's tragic that so much time and money, and lives, have been wasted thus far.

_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

(in reply to Sinergy)
Profile   Post #: 49
RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 5:40:42 PM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

If we bail now, Iran will have a puppet government set up within a year.




So the question I would ask the stay the course crowd is how much money do they want to waste trying to stay the course, before the reality of the costs and futility of rebuilding the country cause us to leave with our tails between our legs.

X (cost we have already spent) is less money than X + Y (amount of money we waste before reality forces us to come home anyway)  We are no closer to establishing order in Iraq now than we were 4 years ago, regardless of what you hear on Faux news.

Sinergy



I think the reason things still are fucked up over there is due to piss-poor management; take Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld out of the equation, and get bright and determined folks in charge, and I have some confidence that things could be made somewhat right over there.
 
I do think it's tragic that so much time and money, and lives, have been wasted thus far.


While I would agree that Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld have done a piss-poor job of the post invasion fiasco, Bill Clinton's administration's report on what would happen if we invaded Iraq was completely on point.  Which is why he recommended to Monkeyboy against invading Iraq.

What Clinton's administration predicted ended up being almost prescient in it's description of what Iraq has turned in to since the US went there.

Sinergy

_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 6:13:33 PM   
GregoryMK


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Status: offline 		I find mr Card's "essay" and I use the term loosely laughable.  The errors in Iraq ARE the result of poor decisoins by him and his adminsitration.  they went in with 130,000 troops because Don Rumsfeld, a man who "had betteirnthings to do:  than fight in Viet Nam,  said that would be enough over the objections of the Generals who estimated 350,000 would be necessary.  the Rand Institute estimates that the job woudl take 500,000 personel in Iraq.  to put that in perspective, 500,000 servicemen and servicewomen is the ENTIRE deployale force of the US military, every last one of them, for the duration.

We had no plan for an extended occupation because Chenney and Rumsfeld beleived we would be welcomed as liberators.  That didn't exactly turn out as planned did it?  It was the adminstration's decision to disband the Iraqi army and police with nothing to put in it;s palce that precipitated the descent into chaos.  hte throey that Iraq could fund it's own reconstruction was advanced by another adminstration stall wart, one who had no knowledge of the state of hte oil industry in Iraq.  I coudl go on, but I think that any one who has followed this can see the blatant falsehoods in Mr Card's propaganda piece.  The mess we are in is a direct result of the failures of this administration.

On the question of what to do, we  need to take a hard look at reality.  We need 500,000 pairs of boots on the ground to pacify the country.  Can we afford it?  Can we afford not to?  As one poster suggested there needs to be a come to Jesus meeting between the topbrass and the congressional oversight committees.  At that point they brass need to make it clear what they need to win, and that the need the military and political idiots in the west wing to get the hell out of military decision making, and actaully put thier mone where thier mouth is, and support the men and women in uniform instead of using at as cover speak for "don't question the authority of the president"  Then we need to have a nice big national debate on what the ramifications of fighting through to victory and the costs and benefits, vs the the consequeces of leaving.

Yes we need a tax increase to pay for this war, a hefty one.  We need a draft to get the necessary number of people in uniform to win, because frankly the volunteeer army is not got the numbers we need.  We need a full mobilization of the reserves and National Guard.  No it's not a pelasant alternative is it?  It's going to mean sacrificing our standard of living, and alot of our creature comforts.  It's going to mean maintaining a strong military presence in Iraq for half a century at sustantial cost.  It probably means supporting a dictator ther efor for several decades.  Ar those things we want to do? that we as a nation are willing to  pay for? 

Win or loose, Bush will probably go down as one of the worst presidents in the nation's history, but his legacy is not what the men an women in our uniformed services are dying for, and wil continue to die for until we either leave, or win in a dozen or so years.  It's up to us if we want to fight that long, and pay for it for the next century or so.



(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 6:18:12 PM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GregoryMK

We need 500,000 pairs of boots on the ground to pacify the country. 



This sounds remarkably similar to those who stated that all we had to do to win in Vietnam was to use more troops and more bombs in use.

It didnt work out the way they hoped over there either.

Sinergy

_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 6:25:24 PM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GregoryMK

We need a draft to get the necessary number of people in uniform to win, because frankly the volunteeer army is not got the numbers we need. 



Hello A/all,

One of the reasons we do not have a draft in the United States, over and above popular sentiment being against it, is because the military in the United States is a highly mechanized, technologically advanced military force.  A draft would enable us to have foot soldiers to stand on street corners in Mosul until somebody shot them, but would not really get us people able to run and manage and utilize the computerized infrastructure which ties the military together.

One of the reasons we were able to knock over Saddam's million man army in the week and a half it took was because we have this technologically advanced military designed to defeat the Soviet Union in a theatre wide tank and air support battle in Europe and Asia.

One of the reasons we are not able to pacify Iraq and rebuild it's infrastructure is because our technologically advanced military was designed to defeat the Soviet Union in a theatre wide tank and air support battle in Europe and Asia.

To a hammer, or somebodies as stupid (like the current US administration) as a bag of them, everything else looks like a nail.

Sinergy



_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 6:34:44 PM   
thompsonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: WyrdRich

    I just read a great piece on Civilization Watch by Orson Scott Card (dated oct. 29 06).  Man I wish I was better with a 'puter and could post a link, because he nails it.


WyrdRich:
Seldom in my life have I encountered a person more proud of his ignorance than Orson Scott Card.

thompson

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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 8:55:33 PM   
Foxer55


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Status: offline 		Mercnbeth,

quote:

I am torn about how to feel about this. I still support withdraw, but there seems to be more on the table within the region than just Iraq. Integrity of a person is hard to reestablish. This situation concerns the integrity of a county, my county.


The elections may make this happen.  Whatever the case, history will reflect, that in the closing pages of the first chapter of the Long War, the terrorists won.

Foxer

< Message edited by Foxer55 -- 11/7/2006 8:58:46 PM >

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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/7/2006 11:30:36 PM   
Royalton


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Status: offline 		it is a catch 22, if you leave the terrorists will be encouraged and the fascists governments like Iran will be prone to spread their form of government to others (Iraq); and if you stay with all the negative press it is hard to keep going.

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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/8/2006 12:04:01 AM   
NeedToUseYou


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From: None of your business
Status: offline 		Didn't read the whole thread but in reply to the OP.

I think I'm in agreement for withdrawal, not because Iraq can't be won, but because it's obvious the US doesn't have the stomach for a solution.

I don't understand this new concept of war, everyone talks about winning hearts and minds. War has never been about hearts and minds, it's about beating your enemy into the ground until he is dead or will do anything so you give him a piece of bread. I'm not a history scholar but I don't recall any war that has been fought like this before the 50's and later. The US in my opinion should never go to war if the concern is winning hearts and minds. War is for killing and destroying your enemy in total. If we aren't going to do that then we shouldn't of fired a shot.

So, since we as a country aren't going to break the country, I see no reason to be there.

This has been my view since the beginning, we started off well, shock and awe. Then it turned to minimal and ineffective. War is ultimately for killing and forcing people into submission, if that isn't your goal you should do something else.






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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/8/2006 12:11:38 AM   
NorthernGent


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Status: offline 		The point that people seem to be missing here is that US forces serve as a focal point for insurgents/freedom fighters to kill. When the occupying forces withdraw this will simply shift the focus from US soldiers to US civilians. Their goal is not to liberate Iraq, their goal is to change US foreign policy in the region - particularly towards Israel/Lebanon. This "let's abandon them" talk is laughable, it's politics for 6 years olds.

The US Government and the 180 million Americans who supported them have gotten the rest of the US into a right mess. They have created a hornets nest of people who consider themselves freedom fighters. They are going to kill Americans until the US changes its foreign policy in the region (whether they be soldiers or civilians). If the US Governement withdraws but retains its current policy towards Israel attacks will shift from Iraq to the US.

The solution:

1) The US Government should keep out of the region.
2) The problem is, the US economy is propped up by oil thus making it difficult for the Government to keep out of the region.
3) The other problem is, 180 million? Americans support the Governments policies in the region.
4) Thus, the underlying real solutions are a) a change to the education system so that at least 30 million Americans develop a brain and some compassion (thus tipping the voting balance the other way) b) a change to the economic structure - particularly around fuel supply.

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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/8/2006 12:46:47 AM   
NeedToUseYou


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quote:

ORIGINAL: NorthernGent

The point that people seem to be missing here is that US forces serve as a focal point for insurgents/freedom fighters to kill. When the occupying forces withdraw this will simply shift the focus from US soldiers to US civilians. Their goal is not to liberate Iraq, their goal is to change US foreign policy in the region - particularly towards Israel/Lebanon. This "let's abandon them" talk is laughable, it's politics for 6 years olds.

The US Government and the 180 million Americans who supported them have gotten the rest of the US into a right mess. They have created a hornets nest of people who consider themselves freedom fighters. They are going to kill Americans until the US changes its foreign policy in the region (whether they be soldiers or civilians). If the US Governement withdraws but retains its current policy towards Israel attacks will shift from Iraq to the US.

The solution:

1) The US Government should keep out of the region.
2) The problem is, the US economy is propped up by oil thus making it difficult for the Government to keep out of the region.
3) The other problem is, 180 million? Americans support the Governments policies in the region.
4) Thus, the underlying real solutions are a) a change to the education system so that at least 30 million Americans develop a brain and some compassion (thus tipping the voting balance the other way) b) a change to the economic structure - particularly around fuel supply.


Ummm 2 and 4b would require decades to change, so the proposed solution is no solution really. As in, it would take to long to implement those changes. So, why even offer them up. As by time those changes took place and we became oil independent we'd either be a decade into WWIII or have fixed the mess. Your timeline is to long to be relevant to the current situation which is what to do with Iraq in the next few years.

I totally agree we need to be oil independent and free of this noose, but that isn't going to happen any time soon, just not going to happen.




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RE: Iraq Withdraw - 11/8/2006 1:23:03 AM   
ViborgHerre


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Status: offline 		Well

Some people still cling to their childhood romaticism that the Vietnam war was a liberation from oppression - rather than the real situation : the conquest of South Vietnam by a neighbour Communist country North Vietnam - with the oppressionand tyrany common from that kind of situations.....

I refer of course to the Soviet Union and the "liberation" of Poland, Hungary , Rumania ect, ect

A withdrawal - without "adequate " support to an new goverment - elected by the people and supported by the people will be a sad thing to the Iraqi people. US will have less military losses and the capacity- if perhaps not the desire - for new military intervetion ....

OTOH a goodby to Saudi Arabia will not be possible.

So  - I hope that the USA will consider rather carefully the aailable options. The lack of any "Pul out of Iraq NOW" from the Democratic leadership gives me hope for a sensible solution.

Regards

Peter

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