Amaros -> RE: Iraq Withdraw (11/13/2006 8:17:15 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: caitlyn I agree, which is why I think we can't just withdraw, but must stay and do our best to prevent a bloodbath in a situation we caused with our foolish rush to war. For once, I have to agree with Caitlyn, although to suggest staying the courswe without a gameplan is merely to compound the original mistake. quote:
ORIGINAL: caitlyn The best proposal I have heard, is the one where we redeploy our current forces to southern Iraq, in order to: a) establish a humanitarian center that will be much needed as the country lapses into civil war, b) protect Iraq's oil assets, c) discourage Iran from overt actions in Iraqi affairs, d) place our forces in a more defendable position, cutting down on American casualties With the goal of allowing Iraq to determine it's future the old fashioned way. I believe this was an option presented by John McCain in Meet the Press, but don't quote me on that. Hadn't heard this, but it sounds right - forget "winning", in order to even continue the fight, we need to maintain a presence in the region - a foreward base of operations if you will, adn Southern Iraq is much easier to defend - it's under mostly Kurdish control, and the Kurds are probobly our most reliable and predictable allies, if only for the simple reason that we're the only ones who aren't actively trying to eradicate them - although Bush did flirt with the worst case scenario there, i.e., selling them out to the Turks. In order to persue this conflict, which Orson Scott Card defined well enough, although his admiration for Bush and the republicans is badly misplaced - we need Iraq to be both democratic and self sufficent - that is the definition of winning in terms of this conflict - but we can't do it, and our failure to stabilize the country has actually make less likely as an outcome. What we have is, number one: the Iraqi government wants us out - they've said so, they look like fools when we're calling all the shots, and hence it undermines their authority, without which, they cannot govern effectively. Number two, conversely, the Iraqis largely lack at this time, the ability to control the country themselves, without help. Withdrawing to Southern Iraq satisfies both problems: it gets us out of direct interference in what are, essentially, Iraqi affairs, while at the same time preserving our ability to run support missions for the Iraqi police and armed forces - close air support, armour, covert ops, etc. - this will help preserve the morale of the Iraqi stabilization forces - which might collapse if we withdraw entirely - and bolster their effectiveness (the original Chalabi plan for toppling Saddam involved the use of Kurdish ground forces, with US's role confined to support - the plan rejected by the Neo-cons who thought they pull the same old puppetmaster routine we've been playing for the last 50 years - played out, I'd say). The thing is, I do believe they want democracy, they just don;t know what it is yet, because they've never experienced it - this wouldn't be retreating, more like regrouping, it cuts our losses, and allows us the chance to see just what the Iraqis can do, without drastically reducing our ability to intervene as necessary - we'd actually be doing them a favor. We also need to get back on good terms with Syria, etc. We might be the biggest kid on the block, but it never hurts to have friends - that's the other way to define winning here. Back when #41 pulled out of Iraq the first time, I predicted we'd be back: there was no way sanctions were going to be enough to topple Saddam, and he had no reason to play nice - and here we are. I also predict that if we pull out now, we'll have to go back in again - whether next week or ten years from now, we'll have to go back.
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