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RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/10/2006 10:01:12 AM

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I want a playoff system for college football. I also want to win the lottery lol.

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Post #: 41

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/10/2006 10:42:25 AM

caitlyn

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To me, teams like Louisville or Rutgers can win a big game at home against a team from a power conference, but would be three or four loss teams playing in one of the power conferences. Look at the other top teams and the stretches of games they have to play, one right after another. The announcers last night were talking about Louisville having a letdown after the big win last week, and how Rutgers was fired up to get a big win against a ranked team. When you play in a power conference, this is an every week thing ... you are either playing against a team as good as you, or playing someone fired up to get a big win against a ranked team.

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Post #: 42

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/10/2006 2:08:48 PM

Lordandmaster

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Heh...that's cute.

quote:

ORIGINAL: happypervert

and here's fun site if you want to see things like how 2-9 Illinois was better than 9-3 Auburn last year:

http://www.cfbanalyzer.com/cgi-bin/chain.cgi?mode=chain&teams1=Illinois&teams2=Auburn&year=2005

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Post #: 43

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/10/2006 2:26:11 PM

Lordandmaster

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OK, let's compare Lousville's schedule this season with, oh, say, Penn State's:

Louisville (opponents' records as of today):
Kentucky (5-4)
at Temple (1-9)
Miami (5-4)
at Kansas State (6-4)
at Middle Tennessee State (6-3)
Cincinnati (5-4)
at Syracuse (3-6)
West Virginia (7-1)
at Rutgers (9-0)
South Florida (6-3)
at Pittsburgh (6-3)
Connecticut (3-5)

Penn State (same deal)
Akron (5-5)
at Notre Dame (8-1)
Youngstown State (8-2 in the I-AA)
at Ohio State (10-0)
Northwestern (3-7)
at Minnesota (4-6)
Michigan (10-0)
Illinois (2-8)
at Purdue (6-4)
at Wisconsin (9-1)
Temple (1-9)
Michigan State (4-6)

Penn State's schedule is definitely stronger at the top, with those three games against Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Michigan, but it's also a hell of a lot easier on the bottom. (And I don't think anyone was expecting that Miami was going to be 5-4 when Lousville scheduled them.)

And look at this--this is a real eye-opener. The Big East's record against the AP Top 25 is 3-13. That looks like it sucks, but it's actually extraordinary. The Big Ten's record against the AP Top 25 is...ready for this?...3-23. And the SEC's record is 3-14. Yup, the SEC, which is supposed to be the top conference in all of football, has a worse record against the AP Top 25 than the Big East.

So by what measure is the Big East really such a piss-poor conference?

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

To me, teams like Louisville or Rutgers can win a big game at home against a team from a power conference, but would be three or four loss teams playing in one of the power conferences. Look at the other top teams and the stretches of games they have to play, one right after another. The announcers last night were talking about Louisville having a letdown after the big win last week, and how Rutgers was fired up to get a big win against a ranked team. When you play in a power conference, this is an every week thing ...

< Message edited by Lordandmaster -- 11/10/2006 2:27:00 PM >

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Post #: 44

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/10/2006 4:45:53 PM

caitlyn

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Well, I need to throw some disclaimers in first.

1. Maybe I have no business saying anything, since my school just this season, shook the worst division one team in the country label. We sort of had a strangle hold on that one.

2. A lot of my opinions come from the person I watch games with, who played at Texas. I know a bit about football, when you live in Texas, you can't avoid it. Trust me, I've tried.

3. My watching partner is probably super biased. He was livid when Louisvile was ranked above Texas. He things the Longhorns would destroy them.

OK ... that said, I watched Louisville two Thursdays in a row and don't see them as being in the same class as the other top teams, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Texas, Auburn, USC, Notre Dame, etc ... and as it was pointed out to me, lots of the teams in the power conferences tend to knock each other out of the top rankings, so you can't just look at that. Just looking at my biased guys team, they played a stretch of:

Oklahoma on the road
Baylor at home
Nebraska on the road
Texas Tech on the road

Oklahoma had one BS referee loss before Texas beat them. Nebraska and Texas Tech were both ranked when Texas beat them. Nebraska had one loss, to USC who they played in LA. These teams aren't ranked now, because they took losses to Texas and played other tough games. The question is, if a team like Louisville played those four games four weeks in a row, how do you think they would do? Oklahoma is a better team than Louisville. Adrian Peterson wasn't hurt when Texas played them, and he would have run right over Louisville. Baylor at home, they would probably beat. Then you have Nebraska in Lincoln in a driving storm where you almost couldn't pass at all. Louisville would be toast in a game like that ... and then you have to play Tech in Lubbock, a place where not too many people win.

Florida played something like Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Vanderbilt on four consecutive weeks and went 3-1. How would Louisville handle that. 2-2 maybe, but more likely 1-3. We saw what Louisville looked like having to play two good teams in a row ... how about four good teams in a row?

I don't think the Big East is a "shit conference" but it's also not the SEC, or Big-12 South either. Louisville is a 7-4 team in the SEC, provided they don't play any hard non-conference games on the road early in the season. In the Big-12 South, they would be fighting it out with Texas Tech and Texas A&M for third place in a six team race.

Now in basketball you have the same dynamic in reverse. Teams from down here can beat the occasional Big East team, but if they had to play two a week, they would get beat a lot more than they do now.

AND ... none of those teams can beat Rice in baseball.

I'm gone ... actually have a date tonight.

(in reply to Lordandmaster)

Post #: 45

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/10/2006 4:50:49 PM

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Enjoy your date, caitlyn. And hey..... Lamar beat Rice, once or twice *grins*

_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

(in reply to caitlyn)

Post #: 46

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/10/2006 6:44:02 PM

Lordandmaster

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I don't agree with that--but this is hypothetical stuff, and there's no way for one person to convince another person of his or her convictions about what would happen in a hypothetical universe. So I'll just say point out this: absolutely no computer ranking in the country had Louisville lower than 10th before their loss to Rutgers. Most had Louisville ranked 3rd. (See for yourself at http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare.htm.)

And teams that go 7-4 in the SEC aren't ranked in the top ten in the nation.

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

I don't think the Big East is a "shit conference" but it's also not the SEC, or Big-12 South either. Louisville is a 7-4 team in the SEC, provided they don't play any hard non-conference games on the road early in the season. In the Big-12 South, they would be fighting it out with Texas Tech and Texas A&M for third place in a six team race.

(in reply to caitlyn)

Post #: 47

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/10/2006 10:15:39 PM

cloudboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

Donchall think that if Rutgers manages to win this, they should be ranked No. 3 in the nation? I do.

If Rutgers could run the Princeton offense with precision back door cuts, crisp field goal kicking, with a Mix of the old Oklahoma now NAVY wishbone option, its a 39.8% possibility that they'd beat Ohio State by one point if they won the turnover battle by a margin of +2 or more. This formula works with Rutgers either playing at home or on a neutral field.

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Post #: 48

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/11/2006 7:44:07 PM

Lordandmaster

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Laughing...still think Texas is better than Louisville? Louisville beat K-State by 18 points.

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Post #: 49

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/11/2006 7:50:38 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

Laughing...still think Texas is better than Louisville? Louisville beat K-State by 18 points.

I do . If McCoy doesn't get hurt, and Texas doesn't drop the ball like it was greased, and this game would be quite different.

_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

(in reply to Lordandmaster)

Post #: 50

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/11/2006 7:52:44 PM

Lordandmaster

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Uhhh, not dropping the ball is a sign of a good team.

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Post #: 51

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/11/2006 7:54:22 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

Uhhh, not dropping the ball is a sign of a good team.

Yeah, and this is the first time all year that kind of shit has happened, so it's a lark.

_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

(in reply to Lordandmaster)

Post #: 52

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/11/2006 7:55:28 PM

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I do like the kid Kansas St. has at QB, though.

_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

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Post #: 53

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/11/2006 9:54:11 PM

happypervert

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quote:

So by what measure is the Big East really such a piss-poor conference?

Well, as long as you were talking about top 25 wins, the best of them (out of conference) for the Big East was beating Maryland who is currently ranked 23. For the Big Ten there was Ohio State beating Texas and Michigan crushing ND, both ranked in the top 10. Also, Lee Corso said the average record for Big East OOC opponents was 4-7, so although their OOC record looks impressive it is only because they tend to play creampuffs.

Basically, the Big East is still coasting on the credibility they got when WVU beat SEC champ Georgia in the Sugar Bowl last January. That credibility got passed on to Looeyville when they beat WVU 10 days ago; however, now that upstart Rutgers has knocked them off I bet the pollsters are realizing that Looeyville and WVU weren't all they were cracked up to be. Also, some pollsters had them ranked high because their conference is weak, figuring that WVU or Looeyville would be more likely to end up undefeated than a team like Florida in the SEC.

Another way to estimate how good the conference is is by looking at the recruiting. There are a couple of services (scout.com and rivals.com) that evaluate the high school players and rank them, and then they can give "scores" to the classes each school recruits and they also do averages for the conferences. I just checked, and going back to 2002 the Big Least has been no higher than 6th even when Miami and the others were in it. Schiano has gotten some good players from NJ, but he's getting the ones who are left after Penn State, ND and other more familiar names have taken the best. Maybe he'll do even better now, but even Pitt loses about 3 times out of 4 they try to get a player that Penn State wants.

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Post #: 54

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/12/2006 3:48:36 AM

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Okay, let's get Rutgers and Boise St. to play for the championship. Feh. Maybe they could paint half the field blue.

Playoffs, playoffs, playoffs. (boy it's early here)

_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

(in reply to happypervert)

Post #: 55

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/12/2006 5:51:16 AM

caitlyn

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I think some of the top teams losing is a good illustration of my point. Texas has been dodging road conference bullets for a while now. They've only played two home games in about as many months. Every week has been 60K drunken fans, screaming their lungs out to beat the defending champs. They dodged most of them, but finally got hit on a night when they had to play a backup quarterback (with bad hair), on the road, against a team that's pretty hot right now. Loiusville couldn't dodge the first bullet fired at them after a big win at home against West Virginia.

Oh, and Lamar lost to Rice twice last season, but in general you're right ... we seem to be your little purple biatch, far too often.

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Post #: 56

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/12/2006 6:04:08 AM

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Very bad hair, and he's gawky and awkward, and what's with that weird-ass way of handing the ball off he has? lol....

_____________________________

Fake the heat and scratch the itch
Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
One more trip and I'll be gone

~~ Stone Temple Pilots

(in reply to caitlyn)

Post #: 57

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/12/2006 8:05:30 AM

Lordandmaster

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I've always thought the head coach is the single most import determinant of success in college football. Yeah, player talent is important too (obviously) but some coaches have a way of underperforming year after year even with top talent. (You discover that when you see how many players from mediocre schools make it big in the NFL.) And the Big East has some outstanding young coaches right now. Bobby Petrino, Rich Rodriguez, Greg Schiano--these guys might not stay in the Big East, because other schools are sure to offer them big contracts before too long, but for now they're in the Big East, and they're getting their teams to play way over their heads.

As for Texas and those fumbles last night: there had to be a lot more going wrong last night than just the injury to the starting QB and the two fumbles for them to give up 45 points. Lousville gave up 6 points to the same opponent on the same field.

quote:

ORIGINAL: happypervert

Another way to estimate how good the conference is is by looking at the recruiting. There are a couple of services (scout.com and rivals.com) that evaluate the high school players and rank them, and then they can give "scores" to the classes each school recruits and they also do averages for the conferences. I just checked, and going back to 2002 the Big Least has been no higher than 6th even when Miami and the others were in it. Schiano has gotten some good players from NJ, but he's getting the ones who are left after Penn State, ND and other more familiar names have taken the best. Maybe he'll do even better now, but even Pitt loses about 3 times out of 4 they try to get a player that Penn State wants.

(in reply to happypervert)

Post #: 58

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/12/2006 8:10:11 AM

caitlyn

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As long as you limit the discussion to one individual game, you will still feel the way you do ... and that's fine.

Isn't it about time you start throwing out personal attacks?

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Post #: 59

RE: Louisville-Rutgers - 11/12/2006 8:13:34 AM

Lordandmaster

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Caitlyn, what's your problem?

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

Isn't it about time you start throwing out personal attacks?

(in reply to caitlyn)

Post #: 60

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