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Mercnbeth -> China (2/28/2007 11:06:23 AM)
I've started to focus and learn more about China. What an interesting place! They are trying to accomplish something that the USSR couldn't; upgrade the quality of live for their people, becoming a global economic force, while securing their borders. I think they will succeed. They've positioned themselves in such a way that it would be difficult for the US to attack them militarily. However, they are not yet posed to take the next leap to become "THE" global power. Oil is the missing piece. Last summer they attempted to purchase Conoco, and were blocked by the US. When in response they threatened to dump $2 Trillion US dollars on the world monetary market, the counter threat was a strategic strike by the US on China's pipeline to Iran. At that point they backed down, believing that President Bush was crazy enough to execute that plan. They are supported by labor working under a unique version of communist socialism. A right winger would describe it as "slave labor", the left would say it is people are not controlled but guided to work for the common good. The label doesn't matter. Currently it's effective, but as "western" culture becomes more visible I wonder how long human nature of "personal good" over "common good" can be suppressed. During the upcoming Olympics I wonder how much freedom will be given to the press to document the underground religious services, and other things that the Chinese government would like to keep covered? China has ambitious goals. Having a culture that goes back 4000 years and a proud hard working people, there is no reason to doubt that they can achieve just about anything they set out to. China may be the next to take the position of the only world 'Super-power". The launching point for such a push may very well be at the flash-point of Taiwan. I would be curious to see opinions regarding what would occur if China attacked or invaded Taiwan? The US is committed to defending Taiwan with nuclear weapons. Considering the build up of US Corporate investment in China, I wonder if the multi-nationals would allow such a defense to occur? Although the relationship appears symbiotic, with good produced in China bought here in exchange for US currency; what would tip the scale for one to go to war with another? I doubt anything will occur prior to the propaganda and status building Olympic games. Do you believe that the world would be "better" or more "peaceful" if China supplanted the US? In some respects I think it would. One factor immediately comes to mind, but I'll save that and see first if there is any interest in this topic.

NorthernGent -> RE: China (2/28/2007 11:22:13 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth They are trying to accomplish something that the USSR couldn't; upgrade the quality of live for their people, becoming a global economic force, while securing their borders. I think they will succeed. The Chinese have been doing this all my life and they've accomplished it. Nothing new in this respect. As a point of principle, the USSR did improve the quality of life of their citizens. The downfall was a threshold of opportunity incapable of satsifying human drive. quote: ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth Do you believe that the world would be "better" or more "peaceful" if China supplanted the US? In some respects I think it would. One factor immediately comes to mind, but I'll save that and see first if there is any interest in this topic. More peaceful? No. More of the same in terms of government organised games........all playing kiss and tell with each other whilst reaching 'round the back of the government next door and tickling their knackers. The trick is for people to realise this and not herd behind the banner. Without the people, governments have no power. It is the people who give them the platform to do as they please. The question is, are the Chinese more or less capable of reining in their government than the people of the US. I'd be highly surprised if the Chinese manage to achieve what the rest of the world has failed to accomplish.

RWAble -> RE: China (2/28/2007 11:41:01 AM)
The Chinese in their own right are a global power. They are succeeding where USSR failed, because of controlling corruption. Unfortunately they are doing the same as worldwide corporations. Putting profits above people. An elite 2 %, mostly government members own everything in China and the rest of the population must work; to survive. China is just a reverse version of capitalism. They use the military to control that power. As far as them attacking Taiwan, I feel that would trigger the beginning of the end. They know that to. China also knows that a cold war with America can ruin them, like it did USSR. I don't see them expanding their borders, unless maybe into Japan to repay them for WWII. China knows that it is a world economy now and they have melded into that well.

Mercnbeth -> RE: China (2/28/2007 12:12:32 PM)
RW, You raise some good points. quote: ORIGINAL: RWAble Unfortunately they are doing the same as worldwide corporations. Putting profits above people. An elite 2 %, mostly government members own everything in China and the rest of the population must work; to survive. This was one of the prime causes of the fall of the USSR. I think that China will learn from that lesson. Some of the current social programs seem to be directed to this point creating a socialist version of "middle class". quote: As far as them attacking Taiwan, I feel that would trigger the beginning of the end. They know that to. I think this is the biggest test for them. Taiwan must be to them what Gitmo is to the Cubans. Pragmatically, they should let the status quo continue. If anything they should start a massive non threatening propaganda campaign at the grass roots level, pointing out the practicality of a reunification. One of the steps that can be taken and is being discussed is letting the Olympic torch pass through Taiwan. It would be interesting to see the anti-propaganda campaign of the US. They don't want to lose a listening post just off the coast of China. Would the US permit a reunification if it became a desire of the people of Taiwan? quote: China also knows that a cold war with America can ruin them, like it did USSR. I don't see them expanding their borders, unless maybe into Japan to repay them for WWII. China knows that it is a world economy now and they have melded into that well. President Reagan called the bluff of the USSR and caused their end by pressing for military spending. "Star-Wars" weaponry was a program designed more as a economic tactic rather than a military one. It forced the USSR to reassess their military spending and try to put more of their resources to counter the military buildup. Having President Carter as a predecessor led the USSR to believe that the USA wasn't interested in a military buildup. From 1976-1980 the USSR spent more on their people and opened their market to the west. They also wasted a lot of assets in Afghanistan. When the USA was re-directed by President Reagan they had no more 'chips' to put into the pot. I agree with you and don't see China falling into a similar trap. They are much more restrictive about what their people have access. As long as Corporations placate them as in the example of Yahoo; they'll be able to maintain the 'bamboo-curtain'. I also don't see any expansion in the future for China. I don't see any similar economic or political trap on their horizon. Unless of course somehow more attention is given to the situation in Tibet, or if Japan, who currently is letting their currency devalue at epic proportions, starts being a protagonist. The Japanese factor is something to consider. The Japanese and Chinese have a 4000 year history of warfare similar to the factions in the Middle East. I don't think any level of diplomacy or practicality will amend that, anymore than it does with the people living in Asia Minor.

pahunkboy -> RE: China (2/28/2007 12:14:02 PM)
Fastinating posts!!!!!!! You posters are smart! Took the words out of my mouth. I had admired that China minded its own business per UN security counsel votes. China is 5000 years old.... they excel in fenshui, herbal plant medicine, accupuncture- in that regard, I deeply admire thier culture. I have seen pics of the sky scrapers. [for 2008 olympics] dazzling-mind boggling- beyong frank loydd wright and Fuller. Puts US to look "out dated" IMO if east meets west; if we blend the best of both- all will benifit. However, I am afraid greed will win out over the commen good. Right now as we speak- goverments are conducting cyber wars. sorta like hacks, gang style. Future wars will effect teh net, the power grid, cell phones, traffic lights, nuclear reactors, this is only the begining. We are the pioneers of teh teck age. We are forming the customs-rules-ways. Truly an exciting time to be alive!!!!!!!! BTW- the planet has a 50% chance of surviving the year 2100 AD.

Mercnbeth -> RE: China (2/28/2007 12:17:15 PM)
quote: BTW- the planet has a 50% chance of surviving the year 2100 AD. PA, My reaction to seeing this was I couldn't tell if you were being pessimistic or optimistic? [8\|]

pahunkboy -> RE: China (2/28/2007 12:18:51 PM)
in reply to merc, ebay has a "partner" -china to get in. china gets 50% or 51%...... Im not so sure that was a good idea. Walmart- once the china can sell directly to western citzens, they will cut out walmart, the middleman. [any possible middleman] Mark my words on that.

pahunkboy -> RE: China (2/28/2007 12:28:45 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth quote: BTW- the planet has a 50% chance of surviving the year 2100 AD. PA, My reaction to seeing this was I couldn't tell if you were being pessimistic or optimistic? [8\|] 50% is pretty good odds. I seen a unveristy lecture on satilite tv. The lecturer was interesting. the danger is teck. thilitmide, aspestus, agent ornge. at one time we considered it safe. then it wasnt. rapid excelleration of teck opens the possibility of an unknown harmful property-there in lies the peril. weapons of all types are being developed- laser/

RWAble -> RE: China (2/28/2007 12:49:10 PM)
Yes, I think I would have to agree that Afghanistan was a major factor in USSR's collapse. I hope it isn't in America's future. President Reagan called the bluff of the USSR and caused their end by pressing for military spending. "Star-Wars" weaponry was a program designed more as a economic tactic rather than a military one. It forced the USSR to reassess their military spending and try to put more of their resources to counter the military buildup. Having President Carter as a predecessor led the USSR to believe that the USA wasn't interested in a military buildup. From 1976-1980 the USSR spent more on their people and opened their market to the west. They also wasted a lot of assets in Afghanistan. When the USA was re-directed by President Reagan they had no more 'chips' to put into the pot.

caitlyn -> RE: China (2/28/2007 1:12:13 PM)
I see China as content with it's role as a economic power, and seriously doubt they have a desire to be a global power, at this time. If they do have this goal, they better start building a military and getting themselves involved in a bunch of wars ... because they have next to no navy, a one-dimensional airforce, and almost no military tradition past human wave tactics. China isn't currently a military threat to Taiwan. The United States wouldn't need to use nukes to counter a military thrust. Putting masses of Chinese troops on ships, under the watchful eyes of the United States Navy, would be an epic suicide game. Another factor, is how China will handle the enemies they will make as they gain strength. An attack from the United States is unlikely, but smaller scale enemies will undoubtedly want, what the Chinese have. There is much to be admired about China ... but China as a superpower? Call me in about twenty aircraft carriers. [;)]

Stephann -> RE: China (2/28/2007 1:56:22 PM)
China sits poised much the same way the United States was, following World War I. Unlike 1938, the borders of most countries are 'fixed' so long as there is a nuclear threat. Israel represents the last western country with a shift in political borders through force of arms. The western world doesn't particularly care if African or Asian nations splinter or fall into civil war, so long as the flow of goods and oil continues. The US views China the way most folks view their local Chinese grocer in a larger city; lack of understanding of the language, culture, and abilities the grocer has, so long as the man's shop is still open. This balance is delicate, but so long as the China is not attacked, it will not likely strengthen their military as a standing army is a waste of money, in peace time. Having said this, I disagree with caitlyn; a military struggle between the US and China, would be devastating to both countries. The US relies on inexpensive goods from China; China relies on the US market to ensure political stability. Without US markets to trade in, the Chinese would starve within two years. The United States has never had to fight a direct battle with a nation larger than itself; Hitler made the same mistake in his invasion of Russia. Should the US be capable of making tactical strikes, we simply don't have the manpower or stomach for a full fledged invasion; these are lessons we're seeing (and remembering) in Iraq, Vietnam, and Korea. So as long as the grocer continues to sell cheap food, we'll continue to do business with him. So long as we don't vandalize his store, he'll continue to do business with us. Our massive trade imbalance, eventually, could very well lead the grocer to buy the whole city; that is, if he didn't have a billion children to feed. Stephan

xBullx -> RE: China (2/28/2007 1:57:50 PM)
Greetings, I thought they had started their take over, or is that take out. They own 3/4 ths of the corner resturants in American don't they, their out to feed us to death. I am impressed that some of you actually read between the lines and see what the real motives are instead of the ones the media feed us....Very good. But Caits, don't be sure that what you can't see or don't see doesn't exist..... Things aren't always as they appear. (winks) Live well, Bull

seeksfemslave -> RE: China (2/28/2007 2:22:05 PM)
The major determinant, IMO, as to whether China continues its upward momentum is how finance is controlled. ie interest, exchange rates and the total quantity of money and credit, which is really the same thing. If as is the case at the moment no free enterprise, skim off the top, for private profit exists and the value/quantity of money is used to bolster the state then I say the Chinese are unstoppable and goodbye Yanklees (sic) and Europleans (sic) lol.

caitlyn -> RE: China (2/28/2007 2:26:05 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Stephann Having said this, I disagree with caitlyn; a military struggle between the US and China, would be devastating to both countries. I think you are disagreeing with a point I never made. The point I made, is that China is no threat to Taiwan (which was Merc's question), because they simply don't have the military capability. Assuming China isn't stupid, they wouldn't even try. I actually think China and the United States are very unlikely to have a large war. Perhaps smaller affairs ... who knows. Right now, China isn't involved in playing those games of alliances with small nations. No offense intended, but I think using localized examples with questionable goals, as a measure of manpower and stomach, is reasonably flawed. I would counter your position by pointing out how amazing it is, that the American military will keep fighting, even when it has unclear motives. I would point to this as a measure of greater stomach and staying power ... if the military will fight so well in a situation like Iraq, imagine how it will fight when objectives and motivations are obvious.

xBullx -> RE: China (2/28/2007 2:31:35 PM)
Tal Stephan, Great post and as it stands very true. It is always good to remember that old adage about power and corruption though and he who makes the rules and well you know. For know we seem to be in hate with our ecomomic dependance on one another. Yet the ties that bind run deep. Again, mostr excellent post. Your a credit to Jazz players everywhere, I thought you guys just smoked pot and played the sax.... Live well brother, Bull

caitlyn -> RE: China (2/28/2007 2:35:52 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: xBullx Your a credit to Jazz players everywhere, I thought you guys just smoked pot and played the sax.... See ... if China becomes a power, they can smoke pot and play sax all day ... just like us 'mercans.

FirmhandKY -> RE: China (2/28/2007 2:37:11 PM)
merc, I've been interested in China and India and the world changes since the dissolution of the USSR as well, wondering if China in particular would supplant the US, or at least become a second "super power" over the next century. The biggest issue, I think, is still the culture of China, especially as it relates to corruption and "war lordism". China is attempting to have it's cake and eat it too: A capitalistic economy, with restricted human rights. I'm not sure such an animal is possible, in the long run. The only country in the world that has come close to such a thing is Singapore, and I'm not really certain that it's a good counter-example. Here are two interesting article by an Austrialian: The China Chimera Thoughts on China's future They are pretty detailed, and probably boring to anyone not into the details of bankings and savings, but the bottom line is that the economy of China is involved in a shell game with its banks and its economy. The stock market "sell off" in the US and other markets in the last few days was due to a problem in the Chinese market. I've yet to see an analysis of what caused the Chinese markets sell off, but I suspect it will be related to the issues addressed in the two above articles. I also suspect the failure of the Chinese economy would result in a world wide economic downturn. Recession. Perhaps even a bad depression. So, there will be a lot of interest in supporting the Chinese economy, despite it's weaknesses, by the rest of the world's major economies. I think this will tend to slow down Chinese political reform, until it explodes anyway. Another interesting (and more positive) outlook on both Chinese and Indian economic growth can be found at: The Culture of Success, but it only addresses the social and economic aspects of Chinese growth, not the aspect of political freedom. So, I'm not really concerned about China becoming the US's "replacement", simply because it doesn't have it's house in order enough - as it is currently configured - to reach superpower status. But, it can be - and I suspect will be - the focus of a lot of turbulance over the next few decades. FirmKY PS. Another interesting article about the US's "Superpower" Status, and why it's unlikely that any other nation will acheive a comparable status anytime soon: Why the US Will Still be the Only Superpower in 2030

meatcleaver -> RE: China (2/28/2007 2:38:28 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth Do you believe that the world would be "better" or more "peaceful" if China supplanted the US? In some respects I think it would. One factor immediately comes to mind, but I'll save that and see first if there is any interest in this topic. The Chineese are one thing the US aren't and that is patient. While every president wants their place in history and by consequence has this 'vision thing' that is inevitably unrealistic and just fucks the world off, China busily beavers away. China is making headway in Africa, the Africans prefer to deal with them because the Chineese don't interfer internally in their politics and happily pay a decent price for their oil. America and the west in general have exploited Africa and Africans are too well aware of this and welcome China as an alternative partner to the west. As to whether China will prove better than the west for Africa remains to be seen but they can't be worse. So I guess the answer to your question Do you believe that the world would be "better" or more "peaceful" if China supplanted the US? It just depends who you are. If you are African or a middle eastern country, China will probably be far better than the US as a world power, if you are part of the rich world then probably not. As for China democratizing, I can't see it happening any time soon. While certain Chineese are getting rich, the overwhelming majority are still dirt poor and when you are dirt poor, a full stomach, clothes on your back and just getting through the day are far more important than freedom. Taiwan is a left over from the cold war and America is stupid for still backing it. Taiwan belongs to China, they have a right to it and just because 60 million affluent Chineese want to keep their wealthy status, its not a reason to be prepared to start a nuclear war over. If Taiwan was poor and mainland China was rich, the Taiwanese would be begging China to have them back. As for being a world power, they will probably become one, as will India and a resurgent Russia, all for different reasons. I think the days of the US being the sole superpower are numbered and that the US will have to deal with these large countries more as equals. I don't think China not having a navy has any effect on the situation. Bush has already demonstrated the limits to military power quite adequately and if the US stops China trading, they don't just piss China off they just piss everyone that trades with China off, which would probably mean you piss Russia off too which Bush is doing a good job of already. I think the US under Bush has been playing a lousy hand time and again thinking it doesn't need any friends, rejecting all international initiatives and thinking it can do everything alone. The US needs someone who understands diplomacy in the Whitehouse rather than a street corner thug.

meatcleaver -> RE: China (2/28/2007 2:44:41 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY The stock market "sell off" in the US and other markets in the last few days was due to a problem in the Chinese market. I've yet to see an analysis of what caused the Chinese markets sell off, but I suspect it will be related to the issues addressed in the two above articles. I also suspect the failure of the Chinese economy would result in a world wide economic downturn. Recession. Perhaps even a bad depression. So, there will be a lot of interest in supporting the Chinese economy, despite it's weaknesses, by the rest of the world's major economies. I think this will tend to slow down Chinese political reform, until it explodes anyway. I've been listening to detail analysis of the stock market fall and it was expected, just not so suddenly. Many companies are overvalued and there is a fear of a bubble but no one expects a long term problem for the Chineese economy.

seeksfemslave -> RE: China (2/28/2007 2:47:44 PM)
Firmhand; as a rule you post very sensible if hard line posts with the US perspective and interest in mind. Then what happens, you go all namby pamby wibbly wobbly and start worrying about human rights in China. It may well be advantageous or "nice" if every Chinaman were free, whatever that really means, but it aint going to happen soon and has very little to do with the likely, increasing, success of China. What do you think about that ?

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