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Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 4:15:03 PM   
FirmhandKY


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Gallup Daily: Race Tied at 44%

***

PRINCETON, NJ -- According to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 29-31, John McCain and Barack Obama are now tied at 44% in the preferences of national registered voters.

This is not much different from the results reported in Gallup Poll Daily tracking on Thursday, when the two were nearly tied with 45% for Obama and 44% for McCain. However, it is a substantial turnaround from earlier this week when Obama held a statistically significant lead coming off his high-profile trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East.

...

The contrast between Obama's recent advantage over McCain (ranging from six to nine points) and today's result is particularly notable because this is McCain's strongest showing in over a month. The last time Gallup found the race exactly tied was in late June. By contrast, in the weeks just prior to Obama's overseas trip, he had led the race by an average of four points.

***

Like I said ... a trend.

Firm

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 4:18:42 PM   
christine1


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Status: offline 		i'm sure this "trend" won't be reported by the media.  they seem to miss so many things not liberal.

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 4:20:32 PM   
kittinSol


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Status: offline 		NPR just talked about it a couple of hours ago.

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 5:20:38 PM   
Alumbrado


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Status: offline 		Obama?  I thought I read a bunch of posts not too long ago, about how Hillary was ahead in the polls?

Surely they weren't wrong? 

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 5:24:10 PM   
Raechard


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Status: offline 		The only polls that count for anything are exit polls IMOSVHO. I noticed today McCain is quite errmmm...

Now for the REAL debate...

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 5:24:47 PM   
Musicmystery


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Status: offline 		If you're gonna follow a poll by poll account from now to November, you're gonna be a busy and frustrated man.

Enjoy.

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 7:06:27 PM   
cyberdude611


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Status: offline 		Actually Barack Obama is polling worse than John Kerry did at this point in 2004. No matter how the media and the Democrats sugar-coat it.....that is NOT good, statistically.

What I find very interesting is Obama has not even come close to that 50% mark even in the Democrat-sponsored polls. That tells me his support is mainly just a very loud 45% of Americans. And Obama is having trouble breaking into that 10% that is sitting on the fence.

McCain has always polled very well with independant and swing voters. And apparently Obama has not found a way to take that advantage away from McCain.

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 7:39:52 PM   
FirmhandKY


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Status: offline 		It's pretty well documented that many polls tend to oversample Democratic leaning voters, and undercount Republican leanig voters - for whatever reason.

Just in the normal course of events, I almost automatically switch at least 5%, and up to 10% of whatever a poll says.

(Parenthetically, even exit polls aren't always reliable. Remember the 2004 exit polls problems?)

On top of that, there is the "Bradley effect".

It seems the more people get familiar with Obama, the worse things get for him.

Personally, whenever I hear the "Hope" mantra, what goes through my mind is "Hubris".

Firm

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 7:42:19 PM   
bipolarber


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Status: offline 		Yeah, it's amazing what half truths and outright lies will do for you. Sad to say, sheeple actually believe that shit at times.

But, there are four months to go, and as I have said before, I faith in both campaign teams: Obama's to portray him in the best possible light, and McCain's to fuck things up utterly.

We live in a world where things change irrevocably in a matter of hours. Sometimes, in ways we can't imagine... Annother terrorist attack... and McCain could pull ahead... another Bush scandal, (almost a sure thing, by this point) and Obama gains the lead. Hell, McCain could, under the stress of the campaign, have a stroke or a coranary. A racist could take a shot at Obama. Or it could be one of a million other possible variables.

There is only one constant in this 'verse... change itself.   


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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 7:45:06 PM   
servantforuse


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Status: offline 		When Mondale ran against Ronald Reagan, ( I think in 1980 ) he was up by 18 points nationwide in June..Reagan took 49 States, the most lopsided election in this Countries history...

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 7:51:01 PM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

When Mondale ran against Ronald Reagan, ( I think in 1980 ) he was up by 18 points nationwide in June..Reagan took 49 States, the most lopsided election in this Countries history...



Yuppers. I voted in that election, too!

Firm

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 7:55:46 PM   
servantforuse


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Status: offline 		Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat I ever voted for. When we bought our first house interest rates were 17% and we were getting 9 % cost of living raises..That was before he dismantled the military. I still can't beileve that named a nuclear sub after that moron... 

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 8:21:06 PM   
Thadius


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Status: offline 		The funny part is Carter burned through a 30 point lead he had at the end of July to barely hang on, Dukakis a 20 point lead at the end of July.  Firm hit it on the head, traditionally the Dems poll at 5 points higher than they will actually get and Repubs poll 10-15 points below what the actual turnout is.

This election cycle should and does favor Dems, and generic polling shows them polling anywhere from 15-20 points higher than Repubs, except in the presidential election where it is now a dead heat.  Something is getting lost in the execution, and makes me wonder why Obama is not polling better.

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 8:25:39 PM   
bipolarber


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Status: offline 		It's a balancing act: dissatisfaction with the crap Bush has pulled over the last eight years, vs. white America's unadmitted racisim.

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 8:32:32 PM   
Thadius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bipolarber

It's a balancing act: dissatisfaction with the crap Bush has pulled over the last eight years, vs. white America's unadmitted racisim.


So those that are Democrats and not voting for Obama are racists?  Interesting take on it.  It couldn't possibly be that folks are questioning his experience, or proposed policies?

Un-fucking believable, that your first choice of a reason is to blame racism. 

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 8:43:07 PM   
cyberdude611


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Status: offline 		What I prefer to look at is polls of registered voters rather than likely voters. Likey voters means that the pollsters are making a prediction of who is going to turn out. That's real hard to predict.

Polls of registered voters is better to look at because although it doesnt take into account those who are likely to vote, it gives a more accurate picture of what the electorate as a whole. The Gallup poll showing this race as tied is a poll of registered voters.

Turnout is way too difficult to predict right now.

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/1/2008 8:43:44 PM   
servantforuse


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Status: offline 		I would vote for a Black, if Condelisa Rice were running. I guess I'll settle for McCain...

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/5/2008 10:24:24 AM   
FirmhandKY


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New poll shows Obama losing support among young, women

By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers

Barack Obama has lost ground among some of his strongest bases of support, including young people, women, Democrats and independents, according to a new ATV/Zogby poll.

The Illinois Democrat has also lost some support among African-Americans and Hispanics, where his lead over Republican John McCain has shrunk, and among Catholics, where he's lost his lead.

The net result, pollster John Zogby found, is a race that's neck and neck, with McCain supported by 42 percent; Obama by 41 percent; Libertarian Bob Barr by 2 percent; and independent Ralph Nader by 2 percent. Another 13 percent supported other candidates or were undedcided.

Zogby called the results a "notable turnaround" from a July survey he did that showed Obama leading by 46-36.

"McCain made signifciant gains at Obama's expense among some of what had been Obama's strongest demographic groups," Zogby said.

His findings:

-Among voters aged 18-29, Obama lost 16 percent and McCain gained 20. Obama still leads, 49-38;

-Among women, McCain gained 10 percentage points. Obama now leads 43-38;

-Among independents, Obama lost an 11 point lead. They're now tied;

-Among Democrats, Obama's support dropped from 83 percent to 74 percent;

-Among Catholics, Obama lost the 11 point lead he had in July and now trails McCain by 15.

Zogby said Obama also lost ground among minorities.


A trend I tell you ... a trend ...

Firm

< Message edited by FirmhandKY -- 8/5/2008 10:26:02 AM >

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/5/2008 10:30:06 AM   
DomKen


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Status: offline 		The gallup daily has Obama with a 4 point lead.

http://www.gallup.com/

BTW firm you never acknowledged your error on the economy thread.

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RE: Obama and McCain - Neck and Neck - 8/5/2008 10:37:23 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

The gallup daily has Obama with a 4 point lead.

http://www.gallup.com/

BTW firm you never acknowledged your error on the economy thread.


When I make an error, I'll admit it.

As far as the Gallup poll, read my next post.

Firm


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