RE: Pakistan border and US forces (Full Version)

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philosophy -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 12:54:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY
The USA might be the most powerful military power on the face of the earth but not even they have the power to subjugate Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan together

Sorry, gotta disagree here.

The US certainly has the capability and ability to "subjugate Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan" all together.

The technical aspects of such "subjugation" isn't really that difficult, although certainly complex.

The question is one of political will, not technical capability.



.......well, a couple of points occur to me. Firstly Pakistan is a nuclear power, attacking that country would be awfully risky. Secondly, what do you think the rest of the world would do in the face of such naked aggression from the US? Trade embargoes at first certainly. You can say goodbye to all imported oil. Full on cyber war as well. Watch how many computerised systems would get attacked. An enormous rise in attacks on US interests abroad.  Military bases in the EU being shut down.......and while you may think that the US could win against the four countries you mentioned you don't want to start a war with the EU. And the rise in terrorist activity would be enormous.


It's just possible that the US could achieve the short term objective of subjugating those four countries. Just. But the consequences would be appalling for the US.




kdsub -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 12:55:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: philosophy

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

No I am with....hard to say it...but with Bush on this one. The Pakistan's either step up...aside... or be annihilated.



..and what would happen after the US annihilates Pakistan? Do you seriously think it would make future 9/11's less likely?
The major problem with US foreign policy is that it's so near sighted. It's all short term thinking. 
Now i'm not saying do nothing. My take on it is that the best possible option would be for Pakistan to sort this out. So, instead of charging to use the military option, what can be done to strengthen the Pakistani authorities hand? How can we convince countries like Pakistan that controlling these sort of insurgents is a good thing? Where are the diplomats?
Sometimes you have to take a short term hit to make an enormous long term gain. Sacrificing the long term for the short term is almost always immensely counter-productive.


That would be fine but Pakistan cannot sort it out...I don't believe it wants to.

Does any action anywhere anytime make it less likely...No not in my opinion.. All that will work is to destroy their bases and support. I do believe that only full force will do this. Too many times we have backed off in the past and we see where that has led.

My friend I don’t want war but we must fight it properly …to me that means with all resources…both politically and militarily. If from the beginning Iran and Syria saw we were serious and they would be next the support for these radicals would dry up overnight.

Butch




kittinSol -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 12:59:49 PM)

Fast reply - our perception of other countries would be greatly improved if we reminded ourselves that these nations are made up of individuals who, for an extremely large majority, do not want conflict and would like to live in peace. I know it justifies belligerent sentiment to imagine Iran as a place packed full of bomb toting fanatics... but it's not.




kdsub -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 1:09:27 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kittinSol

Fast reply - our perception of other countries would be greatly improved if we reminded ourselves that these nations are made up of individuals who, for an extremely large majority, do not want conflict and would like to live in peace. I know it justifies belligerent sentiment to imagine Iran as a place packed full of bomb toting fanatics... but it's not.


Of course you are right about the majority...but they are no less responsible for their countries action as we are for ours...And the actions of the rulers of Iran are destabilizing not only the Middle East but also the world.

We can either stop it now or later in another World War once they gain power and have reduced our will to fight by bleeding us over time with these type of supported terrorist actions.

I’m not saying invade Iran…but I am for making sure they know we will if necessary.

Butch




philosophy -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 1:11:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

If from the beginning Iran and Syria saw we were serious and they would be next the support for these radicals would dry up overnight.



...i think it is on this precise point where we have different perceptions. i see those countries, indeed all countries, as proud places. We thought we'd cowed Germany into submission after WW1, the Treaty of Versailles was a punitive one....look what happened next. We created a situation where a Hitler could thrive and gain power. What actually happens in these cases is that the next generation want revenge, their honour back........by being so belligerant the US only stores up ill-will for future generations. This kind of thing is a long term game, we have to think past the narrow confines of this single generation.




kdsub -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 1:20:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: philosophy

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

If from the beginning Iran and Syria saw we were serious and they would be next the support for these radicals would dry up overnight.



...i think it is on this precise point where we have different perceptions. i see those countries, indeed all countries, as proud places. We thought we'd cowed Germany into submission after WW1, the Treaty of Versailles was a punitive one....look what happened next. We created a situation where a Hitler could thrive and gain power. What actually happens in these cases is that the next generation want revenge, their honour back........by being so belligerant the US only stores up ill-will for future generations. This kind of thing is a long term game, we have to think past the narrow confines of this single generation.


I do see your point but these people are pragmatic. They want their power more than their honor or their religion. We do not have to publicly admonish them…but privately we must and by our actions make them realize we are serious.

Butch




kdsub -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 1:30:21 PM)

As an added thought to your last post philosopy...We are no less proud...or less in need for revenge..as our actions have shown. We on many occasions and by many actions have extended our hands in peace. There comes a time when others must  take the chance to trust in our sincerity. We can't be a Nation and go through time always worrying about how to appease belligerent countries.

Butch




philosophy -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 1:35:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

As an added thought to your last post philosopy...We are no less proud...or less in need for revenge..as our actions have shown. We on many occasions and by many actions have extended our hands in peace. There comes a time when others must  take the chance to trust in our sincerity. We can't be a Nation and go through time always worrying about how to appease belligerent countries.



(my italics)

....this is the point KS was making earlier. It's not countries we have a beef with, it's factions within those countries. By punishing an entire population we merely create more enemies. i'm not saying do nothing, i know you believe me on that point, in my view though the military option shouldn't be used until there's no other options left......and there are other options still.




kdsub -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 1:44:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: philosophy

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

As an added thought to your last post philosopy...We are no less proud...or less in need for revenge..as our actions have shown. We on many occasions and by many actions have extended our hands in peace. There comes a time when others must  take the chance to trust in our sincerity. We can't be a Nation and go through time always worrying about how to appease belligerent countries.



(my italics)

....this is the point KS was making earlier. It's not countries we have a beef with, it's factions within those countries. By punishing an entire population we merely create more enemies. i'm not saying do nothing, i know you believe me on that point, in my view though the military option shouldn't be used until there's no other options left......and there are other options still.


As I answered her...The people of any country are responsible for their countries actions. They must be made aware of this fact... They can't set back and say it's not me but the rulers... and not take responsibility. THAT mentality is what allows murders and dictators to lead them into war.

That mentality allowed Bush to get us in this mess...We as a nation are just now taking responsibility and with either candidate will change the direction of our country.

The people of Iran and Syria must do the same if they want to avoid unimaginable destruction.

Butch




philosophy -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 1:47:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

We as a nation are just now taking responsibility and with either candidate will change the direction of our country.



...well, i hope it pans out that way. However, i'm not as optimistic as you i'm afraid, though i will keep my fingers crossed.




popeye1250 -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 2:09:52 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: meatcleaver

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Ultimately the best solution is to strengthen the Pakistani government somehow, I have no idea how, so it would be politically possible for the Pakistani to extend central government control into these essentially lawless "tribal" areas. This would inevitably result in violent incidents and a few battles involving the Taliban/Al Qaeda forces stiffened by the locals but the situation has to resolved sooner or later and it is likely best done ASAP. Otherwise this region will remain a safe haven for anti western extremists.



Every raid weakens the Pakistani government and the chances of the Pakistani government controling the tribal areas gets less and less with each raid and the power on central government will get less and less if they don't react against the US. With each raid the bigger the chance is that the Pakistani government will put its own survival first and its pro-American stance second, until it doesn't care about America's war on terror. Pakistan has already said, US raids are turning the terrorists into romantic freedom fighters in the tribal areas. The fact that America doesn't seem to understand the antipathy towards America in the tribal region, doesn't bode well for their war in Afghanistan. The people of the Pakistani tribal area are Peshwar, the same Peshwar people NATO is fighting in SE Afghanistan.


Meat, and the idiots at the U.S. State Dept chided Pakistan for having; "too open borders."
Have they ever heard the name "MEXICO" before?
I swear to God those people should be working at Car Washes not for our govt!




Politesub53 -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 3:16:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

Like I say you don't find any of those findings suspicious?... As I remeber the wedding was years ago... and some of the guests were firing guns in the air in the area of American helicopters.


Butch you are thinking of the events of 2002. The recent bombing was in July.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7504574.stm

Every time an event like this happens, its a recruiting drive for the militants.




Sanity -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 3:28:45 PM)



If every event like this is a "recruiting drive for the militants" then what is it when "the militants" blow up Muslims in front of an embassy or at a public market or in a girl's school.

Is that considered a recruiting drive for the American army?

Or what is that.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

Butch you are thinking of the events of 2002. The recent bombing was in July.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7504574.stm

Every time an event like this happens, its a recruiting drive for the militants.




FirmhandKY -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 4:48:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: philosophy

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY
The USA might be the most powerful military power on the face of the earth but not even they have the power to subjugate Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan together

Sorry, gotta disagree here.

The US certainly has the capability and ability to "subjugate Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan" all together.

The technical aspects of such "subjugation" isn't really that difficult, although certainly complex.

The question is one of political will, not technical capability.



.......well, a couple of points occur to me. Firstly Pakistan is a nuclear power, attacking that country would be awfully risky. Secondly, what do you think the rest of the world would do in the face of such naked aggression from the US? Trade embargoes at first certainly. You can say goodbye to all imported oil. Full on cyber war as well. Watch how many computerised systems would get attacked. An enormous rise in attacks on US interests abroad.  Military bases in the EU being shut down.......and while you may think that the US could win against the four countries you mentioned you don't want to start a war with the EU. And the rise in terrorist activity would be enormous.


It's just possible that the US could achieve the short term objective of subjugating those four countries. Just. But the consequences would be appalling for the US.


philo,

We are still not communicating very well.

Please understand the difference between "capable of" and "being a good idea".

As I said, it's a matter of political will, not capabilities. The US has engaged in combat that stretched across the world, in days of much lower technology, with a much smaller population, and a much smaller economy, and did so quite successfully.

As for Pakistan being a nuclear power, the loss of oil supplies, cyber attacks .... yeah, so?

None of them would stop a determined US for very long, I suspect.

Even in the absence of "total will" (i.e. "total war") I suspect that most of the scenarios you mention wouldn't materialize, or end up backfiring on the instigator.

We can argue any of the scenarios, but I still think you are missing my point. The US is indeed a "sleeping giant" (ask the Japanese). We were roused just a little out of our slumber by 911. Really want to see the world shake? Wake us up (You might be interested in a theory of US culture called "the Jacksonian tradition".

I was taught to analyze a potential adversary by capabilities, not by intentions. You look at all the aspects of national power, with political will being one of those.

The only aspect that prevents the US from pretty much ruling the world is the lack of desire. The current aggressive stance is primarily because a relatively small attack on our homeland, the impact of which is dissipating each day.

But never make the mistake that the US isn't capable of much, much more. Four countries in the Middle East? Not much of a stretch. Four continents? That would stretch us a bit.

Firm




FirmhandKY -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 4:51:15 PM)

FR:

A good summary of the "Jacksonian Tradition"

Firm




Vendaval -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 6:16:36 PM)

This is a terrible cycle of deaths and retaliation followed by more of the same.  The question remains how to best de-escalate the situation and avoid creating more martyrs and recruitment opportunities.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

Like I say you don't find any of those findings suspicious?... As I remeber the wedding was years ago... and some of the guests were firing guns in the air in the area of American helicopters.


Butch you are thinking of the events of 2002. The recent bombing was in July.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7504574.stm

Every time an event like this happens, its a recruiting drive for the militants.




kdsub -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 7:01:35 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

Like I say you don't find any of those findings suspicious?... As I remeber the wedding was years ago... and some of the guests were firing guns in the air in the area of American helicopters.


Butch you are thinking of the events of 2002. The recent bombing was in July.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7504574.stm

Every time an event like this happens, its a recruiting drive for the militants.


Yes it does...war is hell... a tragic mistake…  however as a nation they are reaping what they sowed…. as are we for being weak all these past years… The innocent deaths are our fault… we should have acted sooner and not let it come to this mess.

What is the alternative?….We can’t win the hearts and minds of those that don’t want or like us…and we can’t leave them to their own…. or the fighting will one day be in our backyards.

We must win and win decisively and hope we can limit innocent deaths.

Butch




Sanity -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 7:05:22 PM)


Killing their leaders is merely their current poster child for recruitment. If we're not killing their leaders they will use a Madonna video with equally good results. Or video of night club action... or they'll demonize Jews.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Vendaval

This is a terrible cycle of deaths and retaliation followed by more of the same.  The question remains how to best de-escalate the situation and avoid creating more martyrs and recruitment opportunities.




philosophy -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 7:50:50 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY


But never make the mistake that the US isn't capable of much, much more. Four countries in the Middle East? Not much of a stretch. Four continents? That would stretch us a bit.



.....i know you're a patriot, but isn't that taking things a bit too far? The US isn't that invincible, four continents? Yet you couldn't win in Vietnam.
The US military has impressive hardware, and is a large army......but to take and hold four continents you'd need to draft the entire nation. That aint going to happen, not unless you want another civil war.
The only way the US can win that kind of war is a scorched earth policy that would make the US the biggest mass murderers in history. i don't think the majority of Americans want that much blood on their hands. Much as you say that ethics has no place in geopolitics, there comes a point when it does.




FirmhandKY -> RE: Pakistan border and US forces (9/17/2008 8:57:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: philosophy

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY


But never make the mistake that the US isn't capable of much, much more. Four countries in the Middle East? Not much of a stretch. Four continents? That would stretch us a bit.



.....i know you're a patriot, but isn't that taking things a bit too far? The US isn't that invincible, four continents? Yet you couldn't win in Vietnam.
The US military has impressive hardware, and is a large army......but to take and hold four continents you'd need to draft the entire nation. That aint going to happen, not unless you want another civil war.
The only way the US can win that kind of war is a scorched earth policy that would make the US the biggest mass murderers in history. i don't think the majority of Americans want that much blood on their hands. Much as you say that ethics has no place in geopolitics, there comes a point when it does.


philo,

I'm not advocating any of this. I'm only saying that looking at capabilities, the only missing element is political will.

It has nothing to do with patriotism, only a realistic look at capabilities.

A four continent war wouldn't be a good thing. A "two-front" war is never a good thing (ask the German's). It would be a stretch as I said, but if the American people and government were sufficiently motivated, it would be possible.

The use of of the full available power of the United States (including the judicious use of nukes) would intimidate most nations (including all the European ones). The only two nations that would be any serious obstacle would be Russia and China.

A large Army would be helpful if we were interested in occupying a nation but if our main interest was in the resources and acquiescence of nations not in direct conflict with us, then the size of the US Army wouldn't be that much of an obstacle. Go see how many soldiers the British needed to control a world-wide empire.

The control of the oceans would be easy. We are the only nation capable of controlling world trade with hardly a change in our current deployments.

As far as the "moral outrage"? pffft. The cold hard fact is that the majority of the world respects power. Most of the "outrage" would be in leftist Europe, and most of that "outrage" is stage managed in an attempt to influence US public and governmental policy. If the US got to the point of doing the things we are discussing, that opinion would not only be inconsequential, but likely not even expressed after a time.

And a very important fact that you seem to be overlooking ... history is written by the winners.

Firm




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