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RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 12:40:41 PM   
Real_Trouble


Posts: 471
Joined: 2/25/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

quote:

ORIGINAL: Real_Trouble

I am for orderly liquidation of companies.

I am not for bailouts.

To wit - I'm fine with what happened to Bear Stearns (essentially, shareholders were wiped out), fine with what happened to AIG (a significant loan at a penalty rate and enough equity dilution that, again, shareholders are essentially being wiped out), but less fine with things like the maneuvering for Fannie and Fraudy, and definitely not fine with a larger-scale bailout that doesn't include major penalties for shareholders.

I'm not so concerned with executive payouts; wipe out the shareholders when the shit hits the fan.  Maybe then they will figure out paying executives to take dumb risks is not a winning strategy.  Someone had to sign those paychecks (or fail to realize they were being cut).  Fuck them over.



OK, I'm confused.
You're against bailouts but fine with Bear-Stearns and AIG which were what again?


Notice:

Bear Stearns - Fed agrees to absorb a set amount of losses on a portfolio of mortgage backed products that JP Morgan will hold.  JP Morgan buys Bear Stearns for approximately ~7% of the value the company was worth the previous year.

Bear Stearns' shareholders got wiped out, pretty much.  Taking a haircut from north of $100 bucks to $10 bucks on every single share is a catastrophic hit; that's someone taking 90% of your money away. 

Who benefitted from the Bear Stearns 'bailout'?  It sure as hell wasn't Bear Stearns or any of their employees.  Primarily, this was done to make sure JP Morgan would actually buy the piece of junk Bear had become to prevent a disorderly unravelling.

Tell me - if this was a bailout, who profits?

AIG - The fed extended a loan to AIG.  By definition, this needs to be paid back, or they are going to be first in line with claims against AIG's assets.  This loan is also at a pretty high rate of interest (far above the LIBOR rate), and likewise, AIG is required to provide the federal government the option to purchase 80% of AIG for a token sum.

This means one of two things:

Option one: AIG is still going bankrupt and cannot repay, but the fed will be able to dictate the terms of the bankruptcy and make sure that the company is unwound in an orderly fashion, rather than throwing all of the counterparties and insureds into chaos.  The fed will probably make money in this scenario by having first claim to most of AIG's assets and selling them off.

Option two: AIG recovers, at which point the government can buy 80% of the company for almost nothing and then sell it back into the public market, booking another huge profit.

AIG's shareholders get fucked either way.  They lose 80% of their value, minimum, and possibly all of it.

So, again, who is being bailed out here?

I don't get the complaining about these two cases.  If preventing a bankruptcy in a way that lessens losses and has very little loss potential is a 'bailout', then I'm all for 'bailouts'.  What happened with Fannie and Freddy was a bailout.  The smoking crater that was Bear Stearns and the walking corpse that is AIG are not bailout recipients, in that nobody is being handed real money here.

The government is basically making sure these entities don't explode and do something like knock down the commercial bank you do business with, causing you to lose all of your money above $100k in savings and checking accounts, all of your CDs, and your retirement portfolio because of the bankruptcy of an unrelated company demolishing their risk hedges and then mark to market accounting putting them into a temporary yet fatal insolvent state.

Again, if it was a bailout, who gets the benefit here?  In Bear's case, it was probably everyone with a bank account at a major US or European financial institution who might otherwise have had their money locked up or blown away due to Bear's massive derivative positions suddenly vanishing.

Likewise, notice the push-back on the Paulson plan for equity stakes similar to what happened with AIG; you do not socialize losses and privatize profits.  If someone needs capital, they have to provide you with an ownership stake and a share of the profits.


_____________________________

Send lawyers, guns, and money.

(in reply to rulemylife)
Profile   Post #: 61
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 1:10:26 PM   
Politesub53


Posts: 14862
Joined: 5/7/2007
Status: offline
It just gets worse. As ludicrous as it seems, the treasury ( the taxpayer ) is planning to pay more to the Banks for the bad debts, than they are actually worth. This means a bigger cash injection for the Banks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

(in reply to Real_Trouble)
Profile   Post #: 62
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 1:19:13 PM   
subtee


Posts: 5133
Joined: 7/26/2007
Status: offline
Thanks Lucy! I tawt i kiwed da tread

_____________________________

Don't believe everything you think...

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Profile   Post #: 63
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 2:48:32 PM   
DedicatedDom40


Posts: 350
Joined: 9/22/2005
Status: offline
The US has a $15 trillion money supply. World GDP of all countries on the earth is $50 trillion. The value of all stocks and bonds in all of the financial markets in the world is an est. $100 trillion. The est. value of all derivatives held by financial institutions foreign and domestic is a whopping $516 trillion. At $516T, think of the entire derivatives market as a body of water being held back by a dam made of leaky bricks. The sub-prime mess was merely a bomb that exploded, cracking bricks in the dam.  The $700B plan is an attempt to strategically isolate the bad bricks in the system (AIG, Bear, etc), replacing them to stop the leaks. The problem is serious, and remains serious even after the bailout succeeds at stopping the leaks. If that $516T derivatives market ever truly collapses, there is no government anywhere on the planet that can financially cover that. The issue of "who built the sub-prime bomb" is no longer the main attention for Paulson and his gang. Keeping that dam from collapse is.

The real question is how we allowed the derivatives market of our unregulated shadow banking system (the Las Vegas players on Wall St) to get that big given its bad track record of destroying companies and banks in isolated geographic pockets since the mid-80s. That was pure banking industry greed at its best, enabled by Greenspan.

Continually pointing fingers at political parties serves to obfuscate the real source of all the trouble in the world... giving control of our currency to private foreign bankers by way of the Federal Reserve Act. Time and time again, it's been pointed out that the two main parties are merely the opposite sides of the same coin. There has been nothing to prove that dictum wrong. And today, with this next massive bailout looming history repeats itself - these are exactly the same conditions that existed during the final days of the Weimar Republic. Public money being spent to shore up the greed and graft of those who already have more money than God, while you get pounded into the ground with ever increasing costs of living. You were told that the war on the middle class was being ramped up, but the more strident among us dismissed it all as a conspiracy theory, as if the truth of things doesn't go along with individual reality, it must not be! Well, you are finding out now that the plan all along was to turn the US into a third world country after hijacking its wealth, and unless you man the barricades soon, your "trusted' leaders, abetted by the most powerful propaganda machine in the world, the American MSM, will succeed in making 1929 look like a proverbial cakewalk. Don't worry about becoming ("Horrors!) socialist, the tilt is fast going the other way.


(in reply to Real_Trouble)
Profile   Post #: 64
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 3:43:17 PM   
hoodie


Posts: 108
Joined: 6/30/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

I am surprised I don't see a thread on this topic.
Okay, here it goes.

The government needs to vote ASAP, about approving the biggest
bailout in U.S. history.
All indications show, the bailout needs to happen this week.
Our economy is in such BAD shape, that waiting 2 weeks might be too late!
The Congressional Democrats are presenting demands that they want put on
the "bailout".
The demands appear to be reasonable and I don't see forking over 700 Billion
dollars, without demands!

Democrats Present Demands for Bailout Plan - washingtonpost.com

I am not happy about the bailout, but I would be unhappier without the bailout!
How do you feel about the biggest bailout in U.S. history?



It's socialism to the Nth degree, and as a fiscally conservative republican, it downright pisses me off that it's even having to happen.

Policies that BOTH parties have voted for and put in place have sent the economic future of this nation into a tailspin, and it's greeted with fingerpointing, childish name calling, and people making demands that truthfully have no business doing so.

The housing crisis could have been averted, in 2003, in 2005, and AGAIN in 2007, had legislation recommended and/or proposed not been ignored, or left to rot in committe.  Shady business practices have gone ignored for decades, and people want to cast the finger of blame at just the party in charge?

laughs.... and this is WHY they continue with the bitter, devisive partisan politics in Washington.  While we're too busy arguing and wrangling back and forth, each and every scumbag politician is robbing us all blind.



_____________________________

bared on Your tomb, I'm a prayer for Your loneliness. And would You ever soon come above unto me. For once upon a time from the binds of Your holiness, I could always find the right slot for Your sacred key.

Nymphetamine - Cradle of Filth

(in reply to MzMia)
Profile   Post #: 65
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 3:56:46 PM   
slvemike4u


Posts: 17896
Joined: 1/15/2008
From: United States
Status: offline
c
quote:

ORIGINAL: hoodie

quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

I am surprised I don't see a thread on this topic.
Okay, here it goes.

The government needs to vote ASAP, about approving the biggest
bailout in U.S. history.
All indications show, the bailout needs to happen this week.
Our economy is in such BAD shape, that waiting 2 weeks might be too late!
The Congressional Democrats are presenting demands that they want put on
the "bailout".
The demands appear to be reasonable and I don't see forking over 700 Billion
dollars, without demands!

Democrats Present Demands for Bailout Plan - washingtonpost.com

I am not happy about the bailout, but I would be unhappier without the bailout!
How do you feel about the biggest bailout in U.S. history?



It's socialism to the Nth degree, and as a fiscally conservative republican, it downright pisses me off that it's even having to happen.

Policies that BOTH parties have voted for and put in place have sent the economic future of this nation into a tailspin, and it's greeted with fingerpointing, childish name calling, and people making demands that truthfully have no business doing so.

The housing crisis could have been averted, in 2003, in 2005, and AGAIN in 2007, had legislation recommended and/or proposed not been ignored, or left to rot in committe.  Shady business practices have gone ignored for decades, and people want to cast the finger of blame at just the party in charge?

laughs.... and this is WHY they continue with the bitter, devisive partisan politics in Washington.  While we're too busy arguing and wrangling back and forth, each and every scumbag politician is robbing us all blind.


Hoodie doesn't the party "in charge"at the time desrve the lion share of the blame?Wouldn't that make the Dems the minority party,shal we blame the minority for the crisis?Being the party "in charge"comes with more responsibility...no?
Now the Democrats will gladly relieve you of this distinction come Nov.and take a shot at cleaning up this mess...
One of our more vocal posters started a thread a week or two ago...asking for opinions on the "legacy of President Bush"...you think he might get some different post's now....

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


(in reply to hoodie)
Profile   Post #: 66
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 4:00:24 PM   
hoodie


Posts: 108
Joined: 6/30/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u

c
quote:

ORIGINAL: hoodie

quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

I am surprised I don't see a thread on this topic.
Okay, here it goes.

The government needs to vote ASAP, about approving the biggest
bailout in U.S. history.
All indications show, the bailout needs to happen this week.
Our economy is in such BAD shape, that waiting 2 weeks might be too late!
The Congressional Democrats are presenting demands that they want put on
the "bailout".
The demands appear to be reasonable and I don't see forking over 700 Billion
dollars, without demands!

Democrats Present Demands for Bailout Plan - washingtonpost.com

I am not happy about the bailout, but I would be unhappier without the bailout!
How do you feel about the biggest bailout in U.S. history?



It's socialism to the Nth degree, and as a fiscally conservative republican, it downright pisses me off that it's even having to happen.

Policies that BOTH parties have voted for and put in place have sent the economic future of this nation into a tailspin, and it's greeted with fingerpointing, childish name calling, and people making demands that truthfully have no business doing so.

The housing crisis could have been averted, in 2003, in 2005, and AGAIN in 2007, had legislation recommended and/or proposed not been ignored, or left to rot in committe.  Shady business practices have gone ignored for decades, and people want to cast the finger of blame at just the party in charge?

laughs.... and this is WHY they continue with the bitter, devisive partisan politics in Washington.  While we're too busy arguing and wrangling back and forth, each and every scumbag politician is robbing us all blind.


Hoodie doesn't the party "in charge"at the time desrve the lion share of the blame?Wouldn't that make the Dems the minority party,shal we blame the minority for the crisis?Being the party "in charge"comes with more responsibility...no?
Now the Democrats will gladly relieve you of this distinction come Nov.and take a shot at cleaning up this mess...
One of our more vocal posters started a thread a week or two ago...asking for opinions on the "legacy of President Bush"...you think he might get some different post's now....


Considering most of the practices taking place have been going on for decades, is that really fair to say?  Nope..and were it the Democrats in charge.... my opinion wouldn't waiver.

Politicians have gullible people believing they're in Washington to work for "us" and election after election, there has been the complicit re-election of some of the biggest crooks in modern day history.

Sorry... but I'm not a partisan hack, and I see the realism in all of this.

Apparently the "in thing" is to be a partisan hack.  it's not my style.

_____________________________

bared on Your tomb, I'm a prayer for Your loneliness. And would You ever soon come above unto me. For once upon a time from the binds of Your holiness, I could always find the right slot for Your sacred key.

Nymphetamine - Cradle of Filth

(in reply to slvemike4u)
Profile   Post #: 67
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 4:24:32 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline
it burns me that they assume the bail out will happen.

we get told to belt tighten.

the no nothing hearings on gas prices...  THAT was allowed to wait!

.....  and  my fav line "it will never happen again"

why arent people stopping this!

(in reply to hoodie)
Profile   Post #: 68
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 4:29:26 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline
http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=news/local/los_angeles&id=6409305

here we go. 18 people protested

(in reply to pahunkboy)
Profile   Post #: 69
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 4:50:07 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/danielcode/2008/0923.html   I believe in fairies!!    tinker bell  here

(in reply to pahunkboy)
Profile   Post #: 70
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 7:46:16 PM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DedicatedDom40

The US has a $15 trillion money supply. World GDP of all countries on the earth is $50 trillion. The value of all stocks and bonds in all of the financial markets in the world is an est. $100 trillion. The est. value of all derivatives held by financial institutions foreign and domestic is a whopping $516 trillion. At $516T, think of the entire derivatives market as a body of water being held back by a dam made of leaky bricks. The sub-prime mess was merely a bomb that exploded, cracking bricks in the dam.  The $700B plan is an attempt to strategically isolate the bad bricks in the system (AIG, Bear, etc), replacing them to stop the leaks. The problem is serious, and remains serious even after the bailout succeeds at stopping the leaks. If that $516T derivatives market ever truly collapses, there is no government anywhere on the planet that can financially cover that. The issue of "who built the sub-prime bomb" is no longer the main attention for Paulson and his gang. Keeping that dam from collapse is.

The real question is how we allowed the derivatives market of our unregulated shadow banking system (the Las Vegas players on Wall St) to get that big given its bad track record of destroying companies and banks in isolated geographic pockets since the mid-80s. That was pure banking industry greed at its best, enabled by Greenspan.

Continually pointing fingers at political parties serves to obfuscate the real source of all the trouble in the world... giving control of our currency to private foreign bankers by way of the Federal Reserve Act. Time and time again, it's been pointed out that the two main parties are merely the opposite sides of the same coin. There has been nothing to prove that dictum wrong. And today, with this next massive bailout looming history repeats itself - these are exactly the same conditions that existed during the final days of the Weimar Republic. Public money being spent to shore up the greed and graft of those who already have more money than God, while you get pounded into the ground with ever increasing costs of living. You were told that the war on the middle class was being ramped up, but the more strident among us dismissed it all as a conspiracy theory, as if the truth of things doesn't go along with individual reality, it must not be! Well, you are finding out now that the plan all along was to turn the US into a third world country after hijacking its wealth, and unless you man the barricades soon, your "trusted' leaders, abetted by the most powerful propaganda machine in the world, the American MSM, will succeed in making 1929 look like a proverbial cakewalk. Don't worry about becoming ("Horrors!) socialist, the tilt is fast going the other way.




I enjoyed reading your post DedicatedDom.
Even at this point, I don't think the average American really
realizes how serious this whole situation IS.
I agree that the US is certainly in a period of serious decline,
the ramifications will last for a few generations, and not in
a good way.

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to DedicatedDom40)
Profile   Post #: 71
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 7:51:02 PM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

It just gets worse. As ludicrous as it seems, the treasury ( the taxpayer ) is planning to pay more to the Banks for the bad debts, than they are actually worth. This means a bigger cash injection for the Banks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/


I figured as much Politesub.
I want to see how much of this money trickles down to
the taxpayers, and I also want to see if we get lower
interest rates, after the "bailouts".

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to Politesub53)
Profile   Post #: 72
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 7:56:56 PM   
Joenextdoor


Posts: 145
Joined: 9/8/2004
Status: offline
I don't think of  9 trillion as peanuts, but I said it in such a manner to make the point, that the problem is a whole lot worse than what most people understand.

(in reply to rulemylife)
Profile   Post #: 73
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 8:02:27 PM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Joenextdoor

I don't think of  9 trillion as peanuts, but I said it in such a manner to make the point, that the problem is a whole lot worse than what most people understand.


I don't think many people have a clue.
But they will soon enough.

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to Joenextdoor)
Profile   Post #: 74
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 8:13:43 PM   
Joenextdoor


Posts: 145
Joined: 9/8/2004
Status: offline
Well put.  We are teetering on the edge of socialism.  I for one am tired of working my tail off to have something, to only see the government take money from me, and throw it away, or give it to others who throw it away.  I am sick and tired of people who think they are entitled to things that my tax money pays for.  Government cannot do anything well or efficient.  I want everyone's taxes as low as possible. Pave the roads, keep the military strong, fund the schools, and stay out of our lives. 

(in reply to Mercnbeth)
Profile   Post #: 75
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 8:19:47 PM   
slvemike4u


Posts: 17896
Joined: 1/15/2008
From: United States
Status: offline
Don't worry about it MzMia our grandchildren can deal with it.

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


(in reply to MzMia)
Profile   Post #: 76
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 8:25:20 PM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u

Don't worry about it MzMia our grandchildren can deal with it.


Maybe mike, I don't feel good about leaving our world and country
in much worse shape.
It doesn't feel or sit right with me.
It is not easy to watch our economy and country spiral downhill. 

Bailout Prevents Great Depression 2.0 - Capital Commerce (usnews.com)

< Message edited by MzMia -- 9/23/2008 8:31:51 PM >


_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to slvemike4u)
Profile   Post #: 77
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 8:29:02 PM   
slvemike4u


Posts: 17896
Joined: 1/15/2008
From: United States
Status: offline
Don't misunderstand me MzMia,I have one um and I am very uncomfortable with what we will leave behind to him and his....both economically and Constitutionally.

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


(in reply to MzMia)
Profile   Post #: 78
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 8:53:54 PM   
ThatDaveGuy69


Posts: 978
Joined: 6/22/2007
Status: offline
I'm of several minds on this.
1) It seems we simply can't allow Wall Street to fail. 
2) Why can't we let the market do what the market does and clean their own house?

I'm not so sure I really care either way.
I lost my job just over a year ago.  I was making $80k and paying my mortgage, car loans, credit cards, etc.  My severance ran out.  My unemployment benefits ran out.  Twice.  I lost my insurance in May when I couldn't keep up with the $1,200 COBRA paymnts.  The cars got repo'd in July.  The house is in foreclosure.  So for me and my family, having the entire financial system crash and burn doesn't seem like it will matter to us. 

If it all goes to hell, I'm pretty sure there will be other institutions that will jump in to pick up the slack.  I heard on ABC news this evening that effects are already being felt: Citibank denied a loan to McDonald's to buy new coffee machines.  Does McDonald's REALLY need to borrow money from anyone? For anything? 

I've been following this "crisis" for the last several days and just can't decide if I'm for it or agin' it. 

Sadly, it doesn't seem like we, the people, have much of a choice.  It's going to happen.  It's going to happen faster than it should.  I just hope we can get some sort of oversight wedged into the deal.

~Dave
Still without a clever signature... 

(in reply to slvemike4u)
Profile   Post #: 79
RE: How do you feel about the biggest bailout in US his... - 9/23/2008 9:07:37 PM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline
Wow Dave, I am so sorry to hear about your hardships.
I appreciate you sharing your story, you are a real human being with
a real situation.  Most of us are only a job or a paycheck away from being
in the same type of situation.
 
I disagree about the economy not effecting you though Dave.
Unemployment is rising, good jobs are not easy to get, between the economy,
the gas and oil situation, the never-ending war, the high price of living, and the even higher
debt that will soon fall on the taxpayers shoulders, the citizens of the USA and the world,
are going to soon find the world a little colder.
The economy has a big impact on almost all of us, in big ways, small ways, directly or indirectly.
 
I hope you find a great job soon Dave, and you and your family
rise above your current temporary situation and you flourish.
Wishing you and your family only the best, Dave.

Namaste

< Message edited by MzMia -- 9/23/2008 9:17:14 PM >


_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to ThatDaveGuy69)
Profile   Post #: 80
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