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RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 7:06:56 AM   
LaTigresse


Posts: 26123
Joined: 1/15/2006
Status: offline 		No I don't think it will be better by spring. But it really depends on too many variables to predict any specific time frame.

I don't really worry about it at all.

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RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 7:15:45 AM   
LadyEllen


Posts: 10931
Joined: 6/30/2006
From: Stourport-England
Status: offline 		Not worrying about it is indeed wise LaT; there is little or nothing we can do about it after all.

We each have an "event horizon" which describes the extent of our influence on the world, and the extent of influence the world has over us. We can do something about things within our event horizon and whilst we should pay attention to stuff outside it, (for it may impinge) that stuff is pretty much irrelevant and beyond our influence - worrying about it wont affect it just as much as anything we might do wont affect it.

I'm not posting this for you though (for I suspect you have the same view?) - but for those who are worrying and stressing themselves out over the dire situation the world is in.

E

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RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 7:20:06 AM   
LaTigresse


Posts: 26123
Joined: 1/15/2006
Status: offline 		You are correct LadyE. Worrying about something I have virtually no control over is the least constructive thing I can imagine doing.

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My twisted, self deprecating, sense of humour, finds alot to laugh about, in your lack of one!

Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

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Profile   Post #: 23
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 7:49:03 AM   
TNstepsout


Posts: 1558
Joined: 8/3/2005
Status: offline 		I think we will see some things improve.  It appears the stock market is stabilizing somewhat. There is starting to be some clear direction on where and how to invest.  However, I think we are just starting to see the effects on the job market and that will certainly not improve by Spring of next year. I think next year will be another very tough year.  It won't be as volatile and chaotic, but it will be tough. I think unemployment will increase and more companies will close as we feel the ripple effects of 2008 hitting more and more industries.  We have been hit on too many fronts to see a quick recovery.

Right now low oil prices are good for the consumer, but what is it doing to the oil industry? How many people are employed in various aspects of that industry? What is it doing to the emerging nations that supply oil and depend on oil for most of their economy? I know we tend to look at them as the bad guys, holding us hostage with a commodity we need, but we have to remember that the money we spend with them, trickles back into our economy. China and other emerging nations have also been hit hard. A big part of the boom of the last ten years came from increase in exports to emerging nations and now we are losing a large part of that. We know the auto industry is in shambles and the housing market will not recover for some time.

No, I think there is still a whole lot of trouble to come. We're just getting started. Unfortunately.


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RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 7:51:52 AM   
MrRodgers


Posts: 10542
Joined: 7/30/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

ORIGINAL: winterlight

I got this comment from somebody who posted and i am wondering if others feel the same way..

It is possible, but I am not optimistic about spring 2009.  There is still a lot of de-leveraging yet to be done.

2010 has a decent chance for improvement, provided the politicians don't fuck things up more than they already have.  2010 would be a lock for a turnaround if we sent the political types on an extended vacation throughout 2009.

Better yet...let's fire all of the politicians and govt. and let corporate America and wall street handle it. See, that way if they do as well protecting our shores and international interests as they did their own portfolios and our 401K's and pension funds...we'll really be in some deep shit. But I am sure we'll have a whole lot more minimum wage jobs.

Capitalism having stashed a few trillion away now (where do you think all of that money went ?) will allow the economy to come back after all that they wish to scoop up and buy on the cheap....has been acquired.

You see that $700 billion was to tie them over until everybody else is poor or out of business which the fed is trying to prolong with money (T-bills) borrowed in our name to make it look good. Then, when enough banks for this round of 'panic' can be destroyed and businesses...all acquired on the cheap by the survivors, you'll see the economy will come around and will create a whole lot of low wage jobs in services out of which many will need 2 or possibly even 3 to pay for themselves and keep the capitalists/socialists whole.

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RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 8:09:00 AM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline
~ FAST REPLY ~
No Chance. There is no light on the horizon.

"Things will get worse" is one promise PE Elect will keep. I'm confident that his administration and Congress will achieve the goal they set.  

For it to get better the elected officials will need to be able to do remedial math. Not expected since the current generation is a product of an educational system accepting 2+2= 3 as almost right and entitled to a 'C' grade. It won't get better until the first three letter word considered for budget deficiencies is CUT instead of TAX; also unlikely since bureaucrats are a protected species and the cumulative total from the various levels of government doesn't employ the majority of citizens. It won't get better until resources are used to assist and encourage successes that are now being used to prop up and encourage failure; and there is no chance of that happening.

It will only get better when pragmatic action replaces academic social idealistic engineering.

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RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 8:52:41 AM   
celticlord2112


Posts: 5732
Status: offline
quote:


Better yet...let's fire all of the politicians and govt. and let corporate America and wall street handle it.

Without government covering their bets all along, Wall Street would have crashed ages ago.

Without government money propping up inefficient corporations, the dreck would have been cleared out of the marketplace ages ago.

Without politicians taking bribes--excuse me, "campaign contributions"--from a fortunate few, there would be no inane regulatory structures geared to squelch competition.

So yes, fire every last fuckup politician (ok, that's redundant) in this country.  Send the whole useless lot of them, including all their useless pointless spend-something-get-nothing programs, to the unemployment line. 

Shut down Congress.  Shut down the White House.  Shut it ALL down.

I'm ok with that.


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Profile   Post #: 27
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 8:58:45 AM   
samboct


Posts: 1817
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline 		"If we can change the game entirely, it certainly wont bring bright sunlit uplands any time soon - but it will at least sidestep the considerable period of suffering that otherwise lies before us. The choice is akin to starving with no crops in the ground, or eating bugs whilst tending the farm - survival says eating bugs until the next harvest is the better choice.

But I do question how changing the game entirely would play out, unless all players agree to changing the game - although on the other hand it is ultimately in the benefit of all players to change the game; lenders and creditors might be annoyed, but as things are they stand to collect zero either way."

Hi Lady E

Well, theoretically we still have a democracy- maybe it's time to assert itself some more?  Because it's clear that most people are unhappy with the current financial state of affairs except for the few greedy bastards who have bankrupted us all for the sake of some zeros in their net worth statement.  If we're to be successful at reestablishing a working economy, these people will lose- they've got all the money now and things can't stay that way.  I certainly won't lose any sleep over the destruction over the class of billionaires that currently run the financial show. I wouldn't mind seeing some of them in jail, but the reality is that most of them probably did nothing illegal.  I guess there's some justice in having them watch their "fortunes" evaporate.

This country has a history of mobilization when angered that's pretty impressive.  Yes, it does rely on that same government that so many here decry is the source of all our problems, but in a democracy- we are the government.  If it's not functioning well, it's our responsibility to fix it- not whine about it.  I suspect that chances of success are keenly tied to speed- the faster a solution is found, the less overall pain there will be.  A lot hinges on how smart we are in coming up with a solution and our willingness to apply it.  From my perspective- a conservative approach has landed us in this mess- deregulate and miraculously the free market will make the world a better place.  Well- it hasn't worked- time to try something different.

LaT- while I agree that worry is rarely productive, I suspect that some degree of analysis of the situation and figuring out likely courses of events may lead to different choices being available- rather than merely being buffeted by events that are beyond our control.

Merc- the only point I agree with you on is the need to do something different.  Let me point out that your prescription to reduce taxes seems to be a major factor that landed us in this mess.  May I suggest a little reading in Wikipedia- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression.  I found Eccles comments to be the most informative.  Deregulating the finance industry has lead to unrestrained growth divorced from reality in order to generate and accumulate vast sums of money- effectively the hoarding that was a key component of the Great Depression.

Sam

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Profile   Post #: 28
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 8:59:24 AM   
bluepanda


Posts: 328
Joined: 12/12/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:


Better yet...let's fire all of the politicians and govt. and let corporate America and wall street handle it.

Without government covering their bets all along, Wall Street would have crashed ages ago.

Without government money propping up inefficient corporations, the dreck would have been cleared out of the marketplace ages ago.

Without politicians taking bribes--excuse me, "campaign contributions"--from a fortunate few, there would be no inane regulatory structures geared to squelch competition.

So yes, fire every last fuckup politician (ok, that's redundant) in this country.  Send the whole useless lot of them, including all their useless pointless spend-something-get-nothing programs, to the unemployment line. 

Shut down Congress.  Shut down the White House.  Shut it ALL down.

I'm ok with that.



Sounds exciting. Have you got any ideas on what happens the next morning?


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Profile   Post #: 29
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 9:07:53 AM   
celticlord2112


Posts: 5732
Status: offline
quote:

Sounds exciting. Have you got any ideas on what happens the next morning?

People start spending all the tax money they are no longer sending to the fucking fools in Washington.  A smart few invest/save that money.

The troops in Iraq come home (and everywhere else, incidentally).

The Big Three go bankrupt (finally), and get broken up into viable entities--sans the disgusting UAW parasite. 

Without federal mandates dragging down state budgets, states start repairing all those bridges.

Wall Street financiers go bankrupt, which is the proper outcome for compulsive gamblers.

Main Street stumbles a bit because of the new paradigm, then adjusts, adapts, and prospers.


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Profile   Post #: 30
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 9:10:18 AM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

~ FAST REPLY ~
No Chance. There is no light on the horizon.

"Things will get worse" is one promise PE Elect will keep. I'm confident that his administration and Congress will achieve the goal they set.  

For it to get better the elected officials will need to be able to do remedial math. Not expected since the current generation is a product of an educational system accepting 2+2= 3 as almost right and entitled to a 'C' grade. It won't get better until the first three letter word considered for budget deficiencies is CUT instead of TAX; also unlikely since bureaucrats are a protected species and the cumulative total from the various levels of government doesn't employ the majority of citizens. It won't get better until resources are used to assist and encourage successes that are now being used to prop up and encourage failure; and there is no chance of that happening.

It will only get better when pragmatic action replaces academic social idealistic engineering.


I do agree with one point you have made, Merc.
PE elect!!!
Who has been the President the last 8 years that has allowed this situation to occur and
get progressively worse on his watch??
I knew a few months ago that there would be people like you, that would blame PE Obama
for the CURRENT crappy economic situation.
NEWSFLASH!
He is not the President, yet, and it did not start on his watch.


< Message edited by MzMia -- 12/20/2008 9:11:09 AM >

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Profile   Post #: 31
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 9:10:38 AM   
tornaway


Posts: 174
Joined: 4/14/2007
Status: offline 		       Spring is right around the corner !   Way too much too messed up from the personal level, to the small business level , to corporate , to state , to the whole country - and internationally as well .  I don't see things improving noticeably any time soon . 
 
    Think frugal - big time ,  it's gonna be a very  "in" phase for a very long time , if not indefinitely .

(in reply to LadyEllen)
Profile   Post #: 32
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 9:20:02 AM   
SilverMark


Posts: 3457
Joined: 5/9/2007
Status: offline 		Ah what the hell!....just to be an obstenant bastard...Sure....everything will be GREAT!...
In all actuality, there will be many ups and downs and we will ride them out as we always do.

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Profile   Post #: 33
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 9:50:12 AM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

I do agree with one point you have made, Merc.
PE elect!!!
Who has been the President the last 8 years that has allowed this situation to occur and
get progressively worse on his watch??
I knew a few months ago that there would be people like you, that would blame PE Obama
for the CURRENT crappy economic situation.
NEWSFLASH!
He is not the President, yet, and it did not start on his watch.



Ms Mia, you represent the exact reason why it won't be better. You apply political preference to my answer. Where or how did you interpret attack on the PE, or even his party? You may not like the fact that I point to facts, but that's a common problem I have with people who seek feel good answers, while putting their head in the sand.

Also common, as in your response, there is only attempted distraction and attempt at insult, not a contrary substantiated by evidence position. Because the PE takes office things will be better? How's that going to happen when he himself says it wont? I'm not blaming PE Obama, I'm agreeing with him and have taken the necessary steps to insulate myself from the results that I believe his entitlement and social engineering programs will create. See a different result, with factual supporting evidence, and I'll be happy to consider it. Because "I think so" doesn't qualify. What I won't say its "You people...".

Your perspective provides a no lose commentary. "It's the fault of the prior administration." or "The President, when he takes on the office, hasn't had enough time." Me - I'm only agreeing with the PE. You want to argue with him - feel free. One of the primary reasons I agree with him is that the general status quo, the last 8 years as you refer to them, hasn't changed. The cabinet appointments of the PE indicate that his obligations to special interests are no different than his predecessor. The Congress, who authorized spending for things like the Iraq war, who ran the auditing and over-site is principally the same as it was for the past 8 years, with the same party in the majority for the past two. Which is more likely, change or 'business as usual' under those circumstances?

I'm sorry you are conned into believing theres is a difference coming. I particularly enjoy the "People like me" reference because it confirms I'd not a person like you taken in by the con. I'd much rather be a person who looks at it in strictly pragmatic cause/effect terms without prejudice. That may not be appreciated by you, but it may be by others who aren't conned by rhetoric and instead measure value by results and facts. 

< Message edited by Mercnbeth -- 12/20/2008 9:56:14 AM >

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Profile   Post #: 34
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 9:56:27 AM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline 		I am not really in a position to speak for the PE.
But, I have always thought that PE Obama has publically stated
that the reason it will get worse before it gets better, is because
he is being truthful!

Surely you realize how bad our current economic situation is Merc.
To lie and say it will get better soon, would serve what purpose?
 
I am not going to lower myself to address personal insults at this time.
I will say I have not been "conned" and I have never said that I agree with
all of his policies!
We had a choice the last election more of the same or something different.
The people voted him as the next President, and we will see what happens.
Happy Holidays!



< Message edited by MzMia -- 12/20/2008 10:15:07 AM >

_____________________________

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To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


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Profile   Post #: 35
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 10:01:09 AM   
Lordandmaster


Posts: 10943
Joined: 6/22/2004
Status: offline 		Right, let's blame Obama for the ungodly mess that Bush has left behind.

And let's praise Bush for all the hidden potential in the current situation if the Obama Administration actually does figure out a way to make things better!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

"Things will get worse" is one promise PE Elect will keep. I'm confident that his administration and Congress will achieve the goal they set.

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Profile   Post #: 36
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 10:03:56 AM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

Right, let's blame Obama for the ungodly mess that Bush has left behind.

And let's praise Bush for all the hidden potential in the current situation if the Obama Administration actually does figure out a way to make things better!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

"Things will get worse" is one promise PE Elect will keep. I'm confident that his administration and Congress will achieve the goal they set.




Now that's what I am talking about.
I would have to say to ANY PE that is stepping into this economic crap and 2 wars---GOOD LUCK!

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
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Profile   Post #: 37
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 10:14:53 AM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

I am not really in a position to speak for the PE.
But, I have always thought that PE Obama has publically stated
that the reason it will get worse before it gets better, is because
he is being truthful!

Surely you realize how bad our current economic situation is Merc.
To lie and say it will get better soon, would serve what purpose?
 
I am not going to lower myself to address personal insults at this time.
Happy Holidays!


However, aren't you in a position to speak for yourself and provide the reasoning for your positive outlook? Better yet, isn't PE Obama in a position to speak for himself? He's elected, why keep the 'plan' a secret? Where's the 'change' in knowledge coming in from outside sources, new blood? Had his adversary appointed the same, 'usual suspects' to his cabinet would you still see it as positive? Do I want him to "lie" no - how about the truth? Better yet how about a outline that provides an 'if/then' path for improvement? You see his "It will get worse" quote as insight. I see it as a promise since he doesn't provide any plan. As a candidate I can understand his resistance to do so; as an PE I think it incumbent for him and it is his responsibility to do so.

Of course I realize how bad the economy is, I just don't believe the people and bureaucracy who cause it, have any desire or ability to change it.

Sorry I insulted you by asking you to give some reasoning for your position. Again, I've come to expect that attitude from the 'believers'. You're setting yourself up for a huge disappointment. You think these people, the same people administering to the past 8 years you hold in such disdain, will now do something FOR you because you point to one man having done something TO you being replaced. Well you go with that. 'Tis the season to believe in 'Santa' too.

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Profile   Post #: 38
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 10:19:35 AM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline 		Merc, maybe you have not read my many posts on how I feel lately.
I have been saying we are headed for a Depression for over 6 months.
I still feel that way, Merc.
 
It would not matter if McCain or Obama won at this point.
We would still be headed for some serious economic and financial difficulties on all fronts.
 
No one can wave a magic wand, and make it "better" by Spring.
I do agree with you on this, more of the same McCain or something different Obama,
it will take a long time to pull us out of this mess.

You might be correct on what is needed in this country, but Merc.....
NEITHER candidate ran on the platform that you are suggesting! { C U T expenses}.
So you and I, and the rest of the Americans will continue on the path of {social engineering}
for the time being.

Seriously, given the perilious times we live in {EVEN if it is what we NEED} could a candidate running on CUTTING and TRIMMING government spending win in this day and age??

< Message edited by MzMia -- 12/20/2008 10:28:31 AM >

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to Mercnbeth)
Profile   Post #: 39
RE: Do you think by next spring the economy will be bet... - 12/20/2008 10:24:47 AM   
hlen5


Posts: 5890
Joined: 3/2/2008
Status: offline 		  I think the economy will get worse. I will try to find the article I read recently that said that the mortgage bubble was the first of 8 bubbles ready to burst (I'm not sure if it was written by the author of Liar's Poker).
  I am not a devotee of Obama but I am willing to give him a chance to improve things. Cleaning up the mess from the last administration will take quite a lot of work.
   

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Profile   Post #: 40
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