ThatDamnedPanda
Posts: 6060
Joined: 1/26/2009 Status: offline
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: MmeGigs The rise and fall of the Dow average isn't an indication of the strength of the economy or of the wisdom of a particular economic plan or of the long-term viability of a particular course of action, it's an indicator of how analysts and traders feel about the possibility of turning a quick profit. Traders are looking for the kind of high-return low-risk vehicles that were creating so much of the wealth a few years ago but they're not out there. That's not because of anything Obama has done or hasn't done, it's because they didn't actually exist. Returns and risk tend to track pretty closely. That's pretty fundamental stuff, but apparently we need to relearn it. I think that once the traders get more accustomed to dealing with risk, we'll see money move around more freely. I don't think we gain in the long term by trying to make it safer to make risky investments now. Well, I'm not sure where to start. I don't know how you can say that the stock market is not an indication of the strength of the economy. The stock market is the economy, in more ways than any other single aspect of our economy can ever be said to be. This is how businesses are capitalized, how new businesses are funded and existing businesses raise money to create new jobs and develop new products. This is how more than half of the people in America invest at least some of the money they're saving for retirement. I don't understand how anyone can truly believe that the strength of this facet of our economy is not a significant indicator of the strength of the economy as a whole. The two subjects could not possibly be more inextricably connected. You can not have a strong economy without a strong stock market. You just can't. So yeah, the Dow matters. A lot. And as for your characterization of the traders as a bunch of people just interested in turning a quick profit, again - you could hardly be more wrong. I'm sorry, but I guess I have no idea where you get that. Traders are interested in one thing and one thing only - getting the maximum return on their investment, in whatever way circumstances may dictate. In some circumstances, some market scenarios, sure - day trading is the best way to do that. The volatile markets that dominated in the last couple of months of 2008 were a perfect example of that. It was no time to buy and hold stocks for longterm growth, because nobody knew which direction the market was going at that point. So the best play, in most cases, was to ride the waves of volatility - buy on the drops and sell into the rallies the next day. That's the best strategy for making money in that kind of market, but you can't look at that and assume it means that all the traders are interested in doing is making a quick buck. Most traders recognize that in the longterm, the best strategy is to find a stock that will grow steadily over the years, buy it when it's still a bargain, and hang on to it. Like Warren Buffet said when someone asked him what his time horizon is when buying stocks - "forever." Most traders generally live by this basic philosophy, because it works. Find stocks that are good bargains and that you have good reason to believe will rise in value. The problem is, what the stock market - and practically every economist in the country outside of the White House - are telling us every day is that they don't think American businesses are a safe investment right now, long-term, short-term, whatever-term. That's pretty damned important. And they're also telling us the reason they think that - they don't trust Obama's plan to strengthen the economy. They're laying out a pretty good 3-part argument for that, too - first, that nothing the administration does is going to do any good until the banking sector is stabilized; second, they have not yet seen anything from the administration to suggest that Obama has a plan for this, or for that matter even understands it; and third, that until this problem is addressed, they expect the profits of American businesses to continue to shrink, and more and more people to lose their jobs. That's a pretty damned serious argument, and I happen to think they're right. I'd like to be wrong - I'd like someone to make a counterargument that's even more persuasive than that one, so I can be less worried - but I have yet to hear one single person even attempt to explain why all these traders and economists are mistaken about the significance of the banking crisis. Until someone does, I have to say the traders are right. Until the banking system's fixed, nothing's really fixed, and there's no way to know where the bottom is.
< Message edited by ThatDamnedPanda -- 3/9/2009 10:05:13 PM >
_____________________________
Panda, panda, burning bright In the forest of the night What immortal hand or eye Made you all black and white and roly-poly like that?
|