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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/7/2009 6:04:45 PM   
slaveboyforyou


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quote:

You gotta love people who claim to love America and then post things that show how badly they want the president to fail, despite the damage that would do to the country and at worst want to see the country go down the toilet so that their politicians can retake the country on a wild trip to the far right.

Ok...I'll be the asshole. I believe that we're in for some very rough times. I believe that it may take many years to get fully through this and back to "business as usual". But I believe America is strong enough to weather this storm. Sooner or later this economic crisis will end. In four years there will be another presidential election. In four or eight years, Obama will peacefully leave office, and the basic life of America will resume.

I find it shamefull that so called patriots have so little faith in their country.


I find it shameful that so many people believe we should just shutup and allow a government servant do as he pleases.  I want Obama to fail, and I'm not ashamed to say it.  His failure is our victory.  The policies he's espousing are not new, and they haven't and won't work.  I want his proposals to never come to fruition.  I want the government to back the fuck off.  If Obama wants to help, he will allow ALL OF US to keep our money.  Class warfare, wealth redistribution, and hollow speeches should be met with cynicism and disdain.  You can scream George Bush all you want.  He isn't the POTUS anymore.  You got your messiah, but don't expect me to obediently bend over without a word of protest.  George Bush didn't get one word of support from the start of his first term.  Obama and his worshippers shouldn't expect anything different. 

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/7/2009 6:48:52 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: slaveboyforyou

quote:

You gotta love people who claim to love America and then post things that show how badly they want the president to fail, despite the damage that would do to the country and at worst want to see the country go down the toilet so that their politicians can retake the country on a wild trip to the far right.

Ok...I'll be the asshole. I believe that we're in for some very rough times. I believe that it may take many years to get fully through this and back to "business as usual". But I believe America is strong enough to weather this storm. Sooner or later this economic crisis will end. In four years there will be another presidential election. In four or eight years, Obama will peacefully leave office, and the basic life of America will resume.

I find it shamefull that so called patriots have so little faith in their country.


I find it shameful that so many people believe we should just shutup and allow a government servant do as he pleases.  I want Obama to fail, and I'm not ashamed to say it.  His failure is our victory.  The policies he's espousing are not new, and they haven't and won't work.  I want his proposals to never come to fruition.  I want the government to back the fuck off.  If Obama wants to help, he will allow ALL OF US to keep our money.  Class warfare, wealth redistribution, and hollow speeches should be met with cynicism and disdain.  You can scream George Bush all you want.  He isn't the POTUS anymore.  You got your messiah, but don't expect me to obediently bend over without a word of protest.  George Bush didn't get one word of support from the start of his first term.  Obama and his worshippers shouldn't expect anything different. 

Do we get to call you traitors and threaten your livelihood as was done to those who spoke out against GWB? Or would you rather not be treated the way we were treated by you and yours?

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/7/2009 6:54:03 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: corysub

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

So that top notch oil products company wasn't the appropriate company to be paid $80 per meal to feed our troops in Iraq. Now the DoD, under GWB, found that there was billions in fraud in that contract but didn't force Haliburton to refund all that money. Of course the fact that our troops, that you neo-cons claim to revere, were fed spoiled food by underpaid bangladeshies, for $80 a plate remember, seems to be just fine with you guys. It's not with me.


This thread is going down hill fast.  I don't really think any of us are better for reading some of the  comments published here.  The troops got some spoiled food..shit happens..and I don't know of a single report of a major problem and people dying...and you better believe the Fuhrer Keith Olbermann would have been all over this story...if there was a story.  We have more people who hve died from tainted "peanut butter" in this country than any silly internet conspiracy theory about Halliburton and bad food. Give it a break dude....your "irrational exuberance' over leftist politics is clouding your rational thought processes.  It's 2009...Obama is President...and we are on our way towards a depression...you do understand that.. I hope. 

Nobody died because of Haliburton?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/04/world/middleeast/04electrocute.html?hp

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/7/2009 7:22:31 PM   
slaveboyforyou


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quote:

Do we get to call you traitors and threaten your livelihood as was done to those who spoke out against GWB? Or would you rather not be treated the way we were treated by you and yours?


You can call me anything you want.  As far as threatening someone's livelihood, GWB never personally did that to anyone.  If I say something unpopular and people decide not to buy my products or services, than that's capitalism. 

< Message edited by slaveboyforyou -- 3/7/2009 7:45:08 PM >

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/7/2009 8:08:14 PM   
kdsub


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Everyone is speaking in absolutes... As if they know the answers and there is no room for doubt in their position. Hell the best economists in the nation don't know the correct course so how can we be so sure here?

The only thing they seem to agree on is something...anything...must be done and done soon. So what you do is try something based on the best information you have... if that does not work you try something else.

If Obama sticks to a failing position then it will be time to criticize. Until then why can’t you give him the benefit of the doubt since you or me don’t know our ass from a whole in the ground about economics?

Butch

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/7/2009 8:40:37 PM   
slaveboyforyou


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Kdsub, I know enough to realize that taxation and government spending won't solve it.  If you are flat broke and you owe money, you do not borrow more money and spend it.  Only a fool would think that's a good idea.  "You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." 

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/7/2009 8:41:28 PM   
samboct


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"As far as threatening someone's livelihood, GWB never personally did that to anyone."

Unfortunately not true.  Tell that to the scientists who saw projects that had approved grants not get funding, or had worked in areas such as stem cell research.  Furthermore, lots of science was classified as sensitive- a classification which the administration denied existed, but then people couldn't get published- and without publications couldn't get grants.

Butch-

While I agree with you that Obama does deserve the benefit of the doubt, I tend to think that we know more about economics than a bunch of whizzbangs in Washington- or at least a comparable amount.  I am unwilling to cede our economic future to the "experts" because they've gotten us into this mess and I haven't seen a good plan for getting us out.

I've been reading Paul Krugman for awhile- and his comment is that the problem with why the banking system is frozen is due to Geithner who's out of ideas.  The banking problem can be boiled down to asset pricing.  The market is offering $0.40/$1.00 of "toxic assets"- Geithner thinks thats too low.  I don't think he's right- and I'd start selling some of these financial "assets" at whatever we can get for them, because the logjam is costing more.  If Geithner is right- the market will bid up the "toxic assets".  If he's wrong- then stuff gets sold at fire sale prices.  As far as I'm concerned- I have no problem with any of these financial companies going belly up- as long as they don't do collateral damage.  And I'd deal with AIG in the following fashion- they've taken bailout money- they have to name names as to who got what.  If somebody doesn't want to be named- they can give the money back.  The idea that the Fed has that AIG will not be a viable company if they have to pass out their client list- well, it's a little late for that.  These financial megastores need to be broken up and unwound- the sooner the better.  And this is something that we all understand and can yell at our congressman for.  Our financial system needs transparency, accuracy, and truthfulness, and large conglomerates are too adept at sweeping massive problems into another section of the company.  As an example- it looks like AIG's London section is what took out the company doing credit default swaps.  For collateral- they used the insurance divisions that were profitable (and still are).  But tying all this stuff together has meant that a bunch of successful businesses have been submerged in a tidal wave of debt.


Sam

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/8/2009 6:45:02 AM   
corysub


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quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

"As far as threatening someone's livelihood, GWB never personally did that to anyone."

Unfortunately not true.  Tell that to the scientists who saw projects that had approved grants not get funding, or had worked in areas such as stem cell research.  Furthermore, lots of science was classified as sensitive- a classification which the administration denied existed, but then people couldn't get published- and without publications couldn't get grants.

Just a "refresher" sam...GW did not endorse federal funding for "embryonic" stem cell research.  All of the advancements have been accomplished with adult stem cells, and research with embryonic has show no such results.  If the "global" biotech industry beleived in spending the huge research dollars in other than adult stem cells, I'm just pragmatic enought to believe they would be doing just that.  We are going to now pour hundreds of millions into an effort that might have been used to advance the current stage of research "where it is working" for POLITICAL reasons. How many REAL cures will be lost because of this loss of focus??   But isn't that why this President does everything, for a political agenda?!!  And please tell me what research that was humanitarian in nature and not connected with National Defense was classified as "sensitive"which denotes not a classification but the degree of classification...from "confidential, to secret to top secret. There is no "classification called "sensitive".. The blog that gave you that info put one over on ya...


While I agree with you that Obama does deserve the benefit of the doubt, I tend to think that we know more about economics than a bunch of whizzbangs in Washington- or at least a comparable amount.  I am unwilling to cede our economic future to the "experts" because they've gotten us into this mess and I haven't seen a good plan for getting us out.
WHY DO YOU IGNORE THE PLAN THE REPUBLICANS GAVE TO "OBAMA" WHEN THE PRESIDENT WAS IN "BI-PARTISAN MODE"???  I THINK WHAT THE DEMOCRATS SAID WAS.."WE WON"...

I've been reading Paul Krugman for awhile- BIG MISTAKE!  When has Krugman been right...??and his comment is that the problem with why the banking system is frozen is due to Geithner who's out of ideas. OOPSS.. KRUGMAN IS RIGHT ON THIS ONE!   The banking problem can be boiled down to asset pricing.  TRUE The market is offering $0.40/$1.00 of "toxic assets"- Geithner thinks thats too low.  I don't think he's right- and I'd start selling some of these financial "assets" at whatever we can get for them, WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO DO THIS..IF A MORTGAGE, FOR EXAMPLE IS CURRENT...WHY SELL IT AT $0.40 ON THE DOLLAR?  THE PROBLEM IS "MARK TO MARKET" ACCOUNTING WHICH, HOPEFULLY, WILL BE ELIMINATED NEXT WEEK! because the logjam is costing more.   If Geithner is right- the market will bid up the "toxic assets".  If he's wrong- then stuff gets sold at fire sale prices.  As far as I'm concerned- I have no problem with any of these financial companies going belly up- as long as they don't do collateral damage. THAT IS SOME CAVEAT.."AS LONG AS THEY DON'T DO COLLATERAL DAMAGE".  DO YOU MEAN LIKE LEHMAN'S DEMISE, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN GLOBAL CREDIT MARKETS FROZE!!??   LETS GET REAL FOLKS...IF AIG, CITIGROUP OR BOA WHEN BELLY UP WE ARE ALL TOAST!    And I'd deal with AIG in the following fashion- they've taken bailout money- they have to name names as to who got what.  If somebody doesn't want to be named- they can give the money back. THAT BEEN DONE!   The idea that the Fed has that AIG will not be a viable company if they have to pass out their client list- well, it's a little late for that.  These financial megastores need to be broken up and unwound- the sooner the better.  And this is something that we all understand and can yell at our congressman for.  Our financial system needs transparency, accuracy, and truthfulness, and large conglomerates are too adept at sweeping massive problems into another section of the company.  As an example- it looks like AIG's London section is what took out the company doing credit default swaps. YEA...THAT WAS PUBLIC INFO WHEN THE COMPANY IMPLODED.  For collateral- they used the insurance divisions that were profitable (and still are).  But tying all this stuff together has meant that a bunch of successful businesses have been submerged in a tidal wave of debt.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_Cds_O.VT1w&refer=home

Sam


< Message edited by corysub -- 3/8/2009 6:50:19 AM >

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/8/2009 10:14:45 AM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: slaveboyforyou

Kdsub, I know enough to realize that taxation and government spending won't solve it.  If you are flat broke and you owe money, you do not borrow more money and spend it.  Only a fool would think that's a good idea.  "You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." 


Well, while I have some  serious doubts about the Obama stimulus program, what you say is not necessarily true. I know the current conservative doctrine tells us that the New Deal was just a colossal waste of money, but the majority of economists agree that (while it was a mixed bag overall) one of the things that Roosevelt did get right was his deficit spending stimulus program from 1933-37. You may not agree, but as i said, most economists do, and personally I find their arguments more persuasive than the counterarguments.

However, the thing to remember is, even if you do accept that Roosevelt's deficit spending helped boost the economy, it's important to keep in mind that deficit spending just for the sake of deficit spending is not the answer. The spending has to be properly prioritized and sharply focused. And the problem I have with Obama's approach is that from what I've seen so far, he does not seem to have learned that lesson from the New Deal. In fact, there are several key areas where Obama seems to be completely ignoring the lessons of what Roosevelt got wrong, but that's certainly one of the most ominous. I know Reid, Pelosi, and David Obey are the ones who actually assembled that monstrosity of a bill, but Obama and his people should have had the sense to study it before he signed it, so I lay the responsibility at his door. He's the one who's going to have to answer for the results.


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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/8/2009 10:21:34 AM   
samboct


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Cory

My info on scientists dealing with stuff that's "sensitive" doesn't come from a blog but comes from my profession since I talk to these folks.  I follow advanced materials- and these are the people that are telling me that-

1)  There is a "sensitive classification" although it's officially denied.  And you can read about this problem in Science- although I don't have the exact issue. 
2)  Grants that have been approved weren't being funded.  Again, personal communication.

And since when is reading someone a problem?  I tend to be pretty critical when I read something, but if the author's making sense, he's making sense.  And Krugman has been calling a lot of this mess correctly from my vantage point.

I'm damned if I know what assets are being priced at what- but I doubt that a viable mortgage is being priced at $0.40 on the dollar- since it wouldn't be considered a toxic asset.  Credit default swaps by AIG however, might be another matter.

Seems to me that the folks running the show claim to be free market believers- except when the "assets" they own are taking a shellacing because they were based on a shell game.  I'm content to let the market price "toxic assets" and move on.


Sam

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/8/2009 10:51:33 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct
1)  There is a "sensitive classification" although it's officially denied.  And you can read about this problem in Science- although I don't have the exact issue. 

Quick dig through the pile finds its:
Sensitive versus Classified Information
David P. vernon and Donald Kennedy
_Science_ 29 October 2004

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/8/2009 1:40:59 PM   
domiguy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: slaveboyforyou
I find it shameful that so many people believe we should just shutup and allow a government servant do as he pleases.  I want Obama to fail, and I'm not ashamed to say it.  His failure is our victory. 

Unbelievable. I didn't like George Bush.  I thought he was a disaster of a President and made unbelievably poor decisions.  I didn't want to have him fail...By him "failing" would mean that my fellow Americans would have to suffer, it would mean that some Americans would lose their lives.  I do believe that is one of the huge problems of the "right." Being in power trumps everything.  They are applauding the fact that Bush left the country in a state of despair.  Now someone else has to come in and clean up their mess.

quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda
I don't give a shit what color his hair is, all I care about right now is what color the Dow average is displayed in at the top of my MSNBC homepage - and it's been red almost every damned day since he took office, largely because he is not keeping his eye on the damned ball. I hired him to fix the damned economy, and in a month and a half he has done exactly nothing to stabilize the shattered foundation of that economy, the financials sector. And every day the traders on the Street point out what they think of his inaction.

I disagree with Rob's speculation that Obama is trying to get his agenda through before the 2010 midterms - I think it's even worse than that. I think he's trying to jam as much through as he can while he's still got 60%+ approval ratings, because he knows that this economy is heading straight for the crapper no matter what and once people figure that out, he'll lose a lot of political capital and won't be able to force this legislation past an emboldened republican congressional delegation. I've become very cynical about him the last few weeks. Either he's too dumb to see what the real problem is with the economy, or he's smart enough to clearly see that it can't be fixed quickly. Since he's clearly not dumb, the more logical possibility is that he's just trying to get in as much hay as possible before the rain starts.



I see posts from people that don't really understand what the President is capable of. I hired him to end a useless war, that he can do. I hired him to tackle the serious ills plaguing our health system, that he can do. I want him to look at the lobbyists and political contributions and the way that our politicians are bought and sold, that he can do.

He cannot fix the economy in seven weeks.  This stock market drop was going to happen no matter what. I always enjoyed the quote, "The insanity of the market will always out last your solvency."  You want a miracle...Ain't happening.  There is no way to know where the bottom lies.  At first, like many, I thought this might just be a temporary setback just an adjustment to an oversold market and we would be back on track once these sick mortgages were dealt with.  No one realized how deep and vast the chasm actually was.  If one was actually astute they would have pulled out of the market at the first sign of trouble, bought bonds, prec. metals or had shorted the whole fucking mess. 
This week in Time is going to be an interesting article. The days of Reaganomics are over.  We are heading towards the gov't getting involved more and more in the aspects of our health and finances.
America is getting older. Medicare is already one Hell of a socialized program.  Don't hear too many bitching about it!  Who is going to pay for all of the baby boomers health care?  The change is inevitable. 

I don't dig all of Obama's spending.  However, "our" definition of capitalism does not always work.  Without oversight and regulation it is clear that too many of "our capitalists" cannot be trusted, so many would fuck their own mother if it meant favorable short term profits. 

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/8/2009 1:42:39 PM   
samboct


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Ahh, thanks DK.  And how is your pile so fast to dig through?


Sam

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/8/2009 2:07:23 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

Ahh, thanks DK.  And how is your pile so fast to dig through?


Sam

You said it was an issue of Science so their website let me search for sensitive and classified. The article came up in the results. Dug out the issue and verified the article was there and voila.

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/8/2009 2:54:26 PM   
corysub


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quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

Cory

My info on scientists dealing with stuff that's "sensitive" doesn't come from a blog but comes from my profession since I talk to these folks.  I follow advanced materials- and these are the people that are telling me that-

1)  There is a "sensitive classification" although it's officially denied.  And you can read about this problem in Science- although I don't have the exact issue. 
2)  Grants that have been approved weren't being funded.  Again, personal communication.

And since when is reading someone a problem?  I tend to be pretty critical when I read something, but if the author's making sense, he's making sense.  And Krugman has been calling a lot of this mess correctly from my vantage point.

I'm damned if I know what assets are being priced at what- but I doubt that a viable mortgage is being priced at $0.40 on the dollar- since it wouldn't be considered a toxic asset.  Credit default swaps by AIG however, might be another matter.

Seems to me that the folks running the show claim to be free market believers- except when the "assets" they own are taking a shellacing because they were based on a shell game.  I'm content to let the market price "toxic assets" and move on.


Sam


Sam,

As I see it, an iimportant part of the banks and other financials taking big hits to capital and report major losses in 2007 and through 2008 really is a reflecdtion of  the "marks" on bank and financial balance sheets from the "mark to market" accounting. 
FAS 157 defines "fair value" as: “The price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date.”  As it stands now..there is no viable secondary market for MBS and portfolio's even those that are not "trading portfolio's" but like GE Financial, for example, are "buy and hold" institutions.  I would think that their
" actual performance" of a loan is what should be used.  In any event, I believe there is an important conference to be held this week and, hopefully, the SEC will be over-riden.  Sometimes I think the SEC has some kind of "lets destroy the financial markets" agenda with its stand on this accounting rule, as well as standint fast on their idiotic move to eliminate the "uptick rule" for short sellers.

Thanks for your info on "sensitive information" .  I had never been aware fo that classification.

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/8/2009 2:55:44 PM   
Lordandmaster


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I didn't know Rush Limbaugh was on Collarme!

quote:

ORIGINAL: slaveboyforyou

I want Obama to fail, and I'm not ashamed to say it.

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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/9/2009 9:11:00 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: domiguy


I see posts from people that don't really understand what the President is capable of. I hired him to end a useless war, that he can do. I hired him to tackle the serious ills plaguing our health system, that he can do. I want him to look at the lobbyists and political contributions and the way that our politicians are bought and sold, that he can do.

He cannot fix the economy in seven weeks... 


Oh, I totally agree. This is going to take a very long time to get straightened out - years, without a doubt. Nobody can reasonably expect him to fix it in 7 weeks, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to make a proper start. And until he comes up with some details on what he's going to do to fix the banking system, he hasn't even started to fix the real problem. None of this other shit that he's doing, or trying to do even matters - or for that matter, is even possible - until the financials sector is fixed. None of it. Health care, lobbyists, get out of Iraq, yeah.... I'm with you 100% on all of that, and I'll toss in a half dozen other things I'd like to see him take care of as well. But for him to be focusing on these things right now is like painting the living room and installing a new counter in the kitchen while the basement's on fire. You put the fucking fire out first, or there's no point in putting in the new counter. Every day he dicks around waiting to figure out the banking crisis just makes things worse, and the longer he waits, the harder it's going to be to dig out of this.


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In the forest of the night
What immortal hand or eye
Made you all black and white and roly-poly like that?


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RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/9/2009 9:51:48 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MmeGigs


The rise and fall of the Dow average isn't an indication of the strength of the economy or of the wisdom of a particular economic plan or of the long-term viability of a particular course of action, it's an indicator of how analysts and traders feel about the possibility of turning a quick profit.  Traders are looking for the kind of high-return low-risk vehicles that were creating so much of the wealth a few years ago but they're not out there.  That's not because of anything Obama has done or hasn't done, it's because they didn't actually exist.  Returns and risk tend to track pretty closely.  That's pretty fundamental stuff, but apparently we need to relearn it.  I think that once the traders get more accustomed to dealing with risk, we'll see money move around more freely.  I don't think we gain in the long term by trying to make it safer to make risky investments now.


Well, I'm not sure where to start. I don't know how you can say that the stock market is not an indication of the strength of the economy. The stock market is the economy, in more ways than any other single aspect of our economy can ever be said to be. This is how businesses are capitalized, how new businesses are funded and existing businesses raise money to create new jobs and develop new products. This is how more than half of the people in America invest at least some of the money they're saving for retirement. I don't understand how anyone can truly believe that the strength of this facet of our economy is not a significant indicator of the strength of the economy as a whole. The two subjects could not possibly be more inextricably connected. You can not have a strong economy without a strong stock market. You just can't. So yeah, the Dow matters. A lot.

And as for your characterization of the traders as a bunch of people just interested in turning a quick profit, again - you could hardly be more wrong. I'm sorry, but I guess I have no idea where you get that. Traders are interested in one thing and one thing only - getting the maximum return on their investment, in whatever way circumstances may dictate. In some circumstances, some market scenarios, sure - day trading is the best way to do that. The volatile markets that dominated in the last couple of months of 2008 were a perfect example of that. It was no time to buy and hold stocks for longterm growth, because nobody knew which direction the market was going at that point. So the best play, in most cases, was to ride the waves of volatility - buy on the drops and sell into the rallies the next day. That's the best strategy for making money in that kind of market, but you can't look at that and assume it means that all the traders are interested in doing is making a quick buck. Most  traders recognize that in the longterm, the best strategy is to find a stock that will grow steadily over the years, buy it when it's still a bargain, and hang on to it. Like Warren Buffet said when someone asked him what his time horizon is when buying stocks - "forever." Most traders generally  live by this basic philosophy, because it works. Find stocks that are good bargains and that you have good reason to believe will rise in value.

The problem is, what the stock market - and practically every economist in the country outside of the White House - are telling us every day is that they don't think American businesses are a safe investment right now, long-term, short-term, whatever-term. That's pretty damned important. And they're also telling us the reason they think that - they don't trust Obama's plan to strengthen the economy.

They're laying out a pretty good 3-part argument for that, too - first, that nothing the administration does is going to do any good until the banking sector is stabilized; second, they have not yet seen anything from the administration to suggest that Obama has a plan for this, or for that matter even understands it; and third, that until this problem is addressed, they expect the profits of American businesses to continue to shrink, and more and more people to lose their jobs. That's a pretty damned serious argument, and I happen to think they're right. I'd like to be wrong - I'd like someone to make a counterargument that's even more persuasive than that one, so I can be less worried - but I have yet to hear one single person even attempt to explain why all these traders and economists are mistaken about the significance of the banking crisis. Until someone does, I have to say the traders are right. Until the banking system's fixed, nothing's really fixed, and there's no way to know where the bottom is.

< Message edited by ThatDamnedPanda -- 3/9/2009 10:05:13 PM >


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(in reply to MmeGigs)
Profile   Post #: 78
RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/10/2009 7:37:29 AM   
samboct


Posts: 1817
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline
"And as for your characterization of the traders as a bunch of people just interested in turning a quick profit, again - you could hardly be more wrong. I'm sorry, but I guess I have no idea where you get that. Traders are interested in one thing and one thing only - getting the maximum return on their investment, in whatever way circumstances may dictate. In some circumstances, some market scenarios, sure - day trading is the best way to do that. The volatile markets that dominated in the last couple of months of 2008 were a perfect example of that. It was no time to buy and hold stocks for longterm growth, because nobody knew which direction the market was going at that point. So the best play, in most cases, was to ride the waves of volatility - buy on the drops and sell into the rallies the next day. That's the best strategy for making money in that kind of market, but you can't look at that and assume it means that all the traders are interested in doing is making a quick buck. Most  traders recognize that in the longterm, the best strategy is to find a stock that will grow steadily over the years, buy it when it's still a bargain, and hang on to it. Like Warren Buffet said when someone asked him what his time horizon is when buying stocks - "forever." Most traders generally  live by this basic philosophy, because it works. Find stocks that are good bargains and that you have good reason to believe will rise in value."

Scientists have a word for the volatility in the day to day variation in the Dow.  It's called noise.  Humans like to look at noise and think that they can discern a pattern when they can't.  That's why brokerage houses get rich on "day trading" and most people lose money- same as at a casino.  In the dot com bubble- with a rising market, it was easier to make money even if playing in noise.  With the market downturn- playing in noise is a good way to lose money- just like everybody else.

The problem is, what the stock market - and practically every economist in the country outside of the White House - are telling us every day is that they don't think American businesses are a safe investment right now, long-term, short-term, whatever-term. That's pretty damned important. And they're also telling us the reason they think that - they don't trust Obama's plan to strengthen the economy.

Nonsense.  If this were true- the dollar would be tanking relative to other currencies, but its not.  Basically the rest of the world is counting on the US to pull out of this tailspin and betting that we can do it.  Nor does the falling Dow provide such a clear indicator of the potential success of Obama's plan.  It does provide a clear indicator that past methods of making money are no longer to be counted on.  The outsize returns generated by financial stocks based on shuffling mortgages around (and how much profit is in a mortgage anyhow?) are gone- hopefully forever and we can go back to returns based on technological innovation with some basis in reality.  But the relatively few people holding most of the money are risk averse- which is why the Dow has dropped.   Essentially they believed in the shell game of the finance firms. Now that the shell game has been exposed, these risk averse investors (whether it's large individuals or funds) are running around like chickens with their heads cut off.  But in order to have returns higher than bank interest- you need to take risk.  That fundamental law of investing needs to be relearned.  The small investor can't make up for the loss of this large institutional money- which is an alternate explanation for why the Dow is cratering- that has little to do with the potential of success of Obama's plan.

They're laying out a pretty good 3-part argument for that, too - first, that nothing the administration does is going to do any good until the banking sector is stabilized; second, they have not yet seen anything from the administration to suggest that Obama has a plan for this, or for that matter even understands it; and third, that until this problem is addressed, they expect the profits of American businesses to continue to shrink, and more and more people to lose their jobs. That's a pretty damned serious argument, and I happen to think they're right. I'd like to be wrong - I'd like someone to make a counterargument that's even more persuasive than that one, so I can be less worried - but I have yet to hear one single person even attempt to explain why all these traders and economists are mistaken about the significance of the banking crisis. Until someone does, I have to say the traders are right. Until the banking system's fixed, nothing's really fixed, and there's no way to know where the bottom is.

I do agree that resolving the banking crisis is important- and it looks like Geithner is falling down on the job.  He'll either get a clue (doubtful) or Obama will need to replace him.  If neither happens within 3 months- yeah, Obama's falling down on the job too- but I'll bet we'll see a change sooner than that.
 
 
Sam


(in reply to ThatDamnedPanda)
Profile   Post #: 79
RE: Who else feels President Obama is trying to do WAY ... - 3/10/2009 8:42:21 AM   
ThatDamnedPanda


Posts: 6060
Joined: 1/26/2009
Status: offline
quote:

Nonsense. If this were true- the dollar would be tanking relative to other currencies, but its not. Basically the rest of the world is counting on the US to pull out of this tailspin and betting that we can do it. Nor does the falling Dow provide such a clear indicator of the potential success of Obama's plan. It does provide a clear indicator that past methods of making money are no longer to be counted on. The outsize returns generated by financial stocks based on shuffling mortgages around (and how much profit is in a mortgage anyhow?) are gone- hopefully forever and we can go back to returns based on technological innovation with some basis in reality. But the relatively few people holding most of the money are risk averse- which is why the Dow has dropped. Essentially they believed in the shell game of the finance firms. Now that the shell game has been exposed, these risk averse investors (whether it's large individuals or funds) are running around like chickens with their heads cut off. But in order to have returns higher than bank interest- you need to take risk. That fundamental law of investing needs to be relearned. The small investor can't make up for the loss of this large institutional money- which is an alternate explanation for why the Dow is cratering- that has little to do with the potential of success of Obama's plan.


That's one way of looking at it, and you may be entirely right. On a fundamental level, I'm much more in agreement with you than disagreement. I'd have to split a lot of hairs and pick a lot of nits if I were to break the post down and argue with it, and given that your analysis is at least as valid as mine, there'd be no point in doing that other than arguing simply for the sake of arguing. I think if we were to disagree significantly, that disagreement would have to center around where we consider the true valuation of the market to be.

I just want to make one thing clear. I'm not predicting the failure of Obama's plan, or saying that the market's perception of that plan is an infallible indicator of disaster. I'm saying two things - first of all, I'm explaining what that perception is, and second, laying out the reasoning behind that perception. They may well be wrong, but as i said, I find their argument more persuasive than any other I've heard, and until I hear a better one I'm inclined to continue to believe this one.

I would also point out that the situation has changed considerably since I posted that last night. The market's up almost 300 today, on a few pieces of encouraging news - first, Citigroup reported that they are actually turning a profit thus far this year, and Geithner, Bernanke, and Sheila Bair have all offered some encouraging assurances about the banking system in the last 18 hours. A few positive developments in the banking crisis, and the market jumps almost 5%. I'm saying it again; whether they're right or wrong, whether each of us agrees with them or not, the perception of how the financials sector is being dealt with is what is driving the market right now more than anything else.


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Panda, panda, burning bright
In the forest of the night
What immortal hand or eye
Made you all black and white and roly-poly like that?


(in reply to samboct)
Profile   Post #: 80
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