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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/28/2009 12:22:25 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

I don't see this as a huge problem. 34,000 people die in the United States every year from some type of flu. This is a strain of flu and not much different than others. It is being blown all out of proportion. Remember the 'bird flu'? Not much but a lot of hype there either.

The bird flu is a bad example, because nothing's changed about that. The threat of that is still the same as it was several years ago. It's just a question of whether, and when, it will mutate into a human transmissible form. The fact that it hasn't yet doesn't mean a thing; it's still out there, spreading in the bird population. And constantly mutating.

But aside from that, the problem with your argument is that the number of deaths overall is not what's important. The important number is the mortality rate, the percentage of infected people it kills. With typical flus, the death rate is about .1% of the people infected. With the Spanish Flu in 1918, the rate was (if I recall correctly) 2.5%, or 25 times greater than a typical flu. The death rate in Mexico appears to be in excess of 7%, although the sample size is still way too small to make a definitive judgment. I think if that was the real number, we'd have already seen a lot more deaths in the US. But if it's even close to that, it's nowhere near what you can call a "normal flu." I think right now, the most likely outcome is it that it will be something quite a bit short of the Spanish Flu, and way, way short of the projections for the avian flu, but still an unusually deadly strain. Something to take very seriously, but nothing to be terrified about.

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/28/2009 12:28:43 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lockit

Panda, you are there alone. Have you considered going to the hospital? You have been sick a long time here and don't seem to be getting better. Please consider it.

I may do exactly that, but honestly, I'm really not too worried about it. I'm pretty sick, but I've been a lot sicker than this before, and even after 4 or 5 days it's not getting any worse. That suggests one of two things to me - either it's not the swine flu (which is almost certainly the case), or in the extremely unlikely possibility that it is, it's a mild case. Don't get me wrong; I hate being sick on vacation, and I admit it's unsettling to be sick with flu-like symptoms in a state where the swine flu is breaking out, but speaking rationally, I'm really not worried about it. If anything, I'll go to a doctor just to confirm that before getting on a plane full of people back to Minnesota.

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/28/2009 12:43:32 PM

Vendaval

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If there is anything I can do to help, Panda, let me know. You should be able to see a doctor at any local Urgent Care type of place. Call the front desk of your hotel and ask for information on the closest ones to you.

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/28/2009 4:13:41 PM

Irishknight

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Actually, the farm I lived near was in Iowa. It was horrible. I hope that you are right and the state made them start cleaning them up a bit but when I lived there, the place was a filthy, stinking pit that ruined property values and people's health for miles around. So many respiratory ailments cropped up in the area around that thing that it was amazing.

Come to think of it, I remember the health issues being addressed in the Iowa Senate while I lived there. I had moved to a different part of the state where I was unaffected by the farms so I didn't follow it closely.

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/28/2009 6:41:48 PM

FangsNfeet

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Swine flu is just another big scare to get media ratings. It'll fizzle away just like the bird flu, mad cow, and sars.

< Message edited by FangsNfeet -- 4/28/2009 6:42:23 PM >

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/28/2009 11:25:28 PM

philosophy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: FangsNfeet

Swine flu is just another big scare to get media ratings. It'll fizzle away just like the bird flu, mad cow, and sars.

SARS killed 44 people in Canada. That's 44 too many.

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Post #: 106

RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/29/2009 12:15:25 AM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Vendaval

If there is anything I can do to help, Panda, let me know. You should be able to see a doctor at any local Urgent Care type of place. Call the front desk of your hotel and ask for information on the closest ones to you.

Thanks, you're an angel. I'll be OK. I'm not getting any sicker, so any day it should turn the corner. Slept half the day today, which should help a lot, and spent the other half marching up and down the Golden Gate Bridge, which at least helped cheer me up a bit. Watched the dolphins frolicking in the bay below the bridge for a while, and the sea lions. Then turned around and marched back before I became totally paralyzed by my fear of heights. That's one cool bridge they've got here. Did you know about it? Check it out next time you get up this way, if you've never heard of it, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

You know, one thing is really bugging me. The death toll. It's not going up anywhere near as fast as I would expect. Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining. I'm very much in favor of people not dying. But the thing is, if this flu is following the normal course of transmission for flu epidemics, why is the death toll not rising? We're still at 20 confirmed dead, and about 150 suspected deaths, and supposedly a total of 2000 cases altogether. But those numbers just don't make sense. If there truly are 150 deaths, and 2000 total cases, then that leaves us with the +/- 7% mortality rate, right? But that 7% figure only works if there really are only 2000 cases, and how would that be possible? Are you telling me there are only 2000 people in the whole country of Mexico who have this flu? It was a limited production virus? Only had enough little flu virus guys to infect 2000 people and that was the end of it?

That just doesn't make sense. If it's anything like a normal flu epidemic, there have to be way, way over 2000 cases by now. But the death toll is not rising proportionate to the estimated mortality rate. Something's not right about this. I don't think we're getting accurate data.

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Post #: 107

RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/29/2009 12:28:13 AM

lally2

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just to be a real party pooper here - but this is natures way of trying to control the population. there is no cure for a viral infection, all that can be given is support. it isnt a question of 'if' it happens, it is a matter of 'when' it happens.

i just wonder though, if nature is repeatedly attempting to reduce the population of human beings in the world and we continue to thwart nature, you have to wonder how much harder nature is going to try. this is the second pandemic threat in just a couple of years.

people have stopped talking about HIV to the extent they used to, but that is a virus that has swept the world, continues to sweep the world and has killed millions.

it isnt something we should just shrug off. i agree lets not panic, but even so, i dont think we should just poo poo it either.

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Post #: 108

RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/29/2009 1:38:51 AM

lally2

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That just doesn't make sense. If it's anything like a normal flu epidemic, there have to be way, way over 2000 cases by now. But the death toll is not rising proportionate to the estimated mortality rate. Something's not right about this. I don't think we're getting accurate data. (quote panda)

im sure we're not. im sure theres a concensus of people in high up places saying 'lets not cause panic unless we absolutely have to' - its called Big Brother.

i work for the National Health as part of my private practice and i can tell you that pretty much every health authority here in england already has a protocol set up and someone heading it. prolly just precaution, but even so, thats costing mega bucks.

< Message edited by lally2 -- 4/29/2009 1:41:31 AM >

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/29/2009 1:55:03 AM

Lucylastic

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28 April 2009--The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 19:15 GMT, 28 April 2009, seven countries have officially reported cases of swine influenza A/H1N1 infection. The United States Government has reported 64 laboratory confirmed human cases, with no deaths. Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of infection including seven deaths.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_28/en/index.html
They seem to have restested samples and the number has come down quite a bit from 154 deaths attributed to it.
Lucy

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/29/2009 3:19:07 AM

SavageFaerie

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I got bacl to NYC last week, just prior to reported cases. When I hit town I got sick, now mind you I honestly believe it was a cold, but more likely allergies kicking my ass, since any geographical change tends to do that especially in spring and fall. No fever, but then again I rarely ever get to fever stage. Could have been but I doubt it.

While yes this is fast spreading, the symptons that are being reported here in nyc seem mild in nature and not long lived. I can see Mexico having deaths because of the quality of living. Plus while I would think those compromised by low imune systems could be at risk, it really doesnt sounds so doom and gloom to me.

The flu that made the rounds back in Feb were alot more harsher than what these symptoms seem to be reporting. I know several people that are still realing from the backlash of that nasty thing.

I think the media is over hyping this flu. Yes it spreading fast but the symptoms dont seem quite as critical as some flu's that have hit this year. All the media is doing is causing chaos in my opinion.

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/29/2009 6:43:12 AM

TheHeretic

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US reports first confirmed death

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/29/2009 2:05:10 PM

Lockit

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They have just raised the threat to level 5.

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/29/2009 11:07:40 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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I'm sorry, I didn't make my point clearly earlier. What I meant was, the numbers just aren't consistent with an epidemic of a highly lethal flu variant. The way i do the math, either it isn't very lethal or it isn't very easily transmitted.

Let's start with the numbers. The last time I checked, Mexico was still reporting approximately 2,000 cases overall. The death toll in Mexico is apparently well under 200 by even the most liberal estimates, and is evidently not rising.

But the math just doesn't work with those numbers. If one of those numbers is accurate, the other can not possibly be. In an epidemic, the number of infected people would be expected to rise steadily, and if the virus is unusually lethal, so would the death rate. Yet the death rate is apparently not rising. If the virus is, indeed, highly lethal, then you'd have to assume that the number of infected people is holding steady. And what flu virus does that? With a flu epidemic, the number of infected people rises steadily as the virus spreads.

There have to be more infected people. Unless there's some logical reason that this one isn't spreading, then we have to assume that the number of infected people in Mexico is rising every day. And if it is, where are the bodies? If the number of cases is rising, but the death rate is not, then it can't truly be a highly lethal variant. And if it is a highly lethal variant, then it can't be easily transmissible, or the number of cases would be rising, and the death toll along with it.

One way or the other, the math just doesn't work. If the figures they're giving us are correct, then with each passing day, the math increasingly suggests that this isn't much more lethal than an ordinary flu epidemic. Or am I missing something here, with my fever-addled brain?

< Message edited by ThatDamnedPanda -- 4/29/2009 11:40:58 PM >

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/30/2009 12:04:47 AM

RCdc

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Hello Panda

The way it works is that this is a brand new strain of flu. It's not a slightly different one, or one that some people have built up a natural immunity to, and the flu jabs that they have will not treat/hold off this mutation.
The last time this occured was in 1968 and we are well overdue another pandemic. The word 'pandemic' sounds frightening and shocking, but it simply means an outbreak over a wide geographic area. It ultimately means it's not restricted to one area or country. An epidemic (which you mentioned) is a widespread outbreak of an illness. It's simply a different measure.

This flu is completely new. It's not that it is a terrible danger so far(no more so than 'regular' flu - so far - but that may alter), or that it is the same as flu virus that exists that we get every year, it's completely new. This means that people have no idea how it may mutate, it's long term prognosis and effects and what it might cause as 'side effects'. For example, only a short time ago, they were unsure that it was even passed on by humans. Now they know it is not only passing on human to direct human contact, but by distance too (in other words, people who are not related, or had direct contact with people who have it).

This is what 'Phase 5' Means. That it is human to human transmission in multiple countries. It doesn't mean it's more dangerous. 'Phase 1' for example means no human cases by virus transmitted by animals.

Don't get freaked out by the word 'pandemic'.

the.dark.

< Message edited by Darcyandthedark -- 4/30/2009 12:13:17 AM >

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 4/30/2009 12:19:17 AM

ArizonaSunSwitch

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quote:

ORIGINAL: FangsNfeet

Swine flu is just another big scare to get media ratings. It'll fizzle away just like the bird flu, mad cow, and sars.

Yup, and we need a health scare story to scare people into thinking socialized medicine is the way to go. If so, in a few weeks we'll be seeing stories about how emergency rooms are being devastated by all the people showing up.

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 5/1/2009 1:32:53 AM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Darcyandthedark

Hello Panda

The way it works is that this is a brand new strain of flu. It's not a slightly different one, or one that some people have built up a natural immunity to, and the flu jabs that they have will not treat/hold off this mutation.
The last time this occured was in 1968 and we are well overdue another pandemic. The word 'pandemic' sounds frightening and shocking, but it simply means an outbreak over a wide geographic area. It ultimately means it's not restricted to one area or country. An epidemic (which you mentioned) is a widespread outbreak of an illness. It's simply a different measure.

Exactly, Dark. Or to put it another way, for people who are unfamiliar with what "pandemic" means, a pandemic could be seen as just an epidemic on a global level. Really, the flu that goes around the world each flu season is just an annual pandemic, albeit of a relatively benign virus.

What makes me breathe easier about this strain is that right now, it really doesn't seem to be as immediately lethal as it was initially being reported. For that, I tentatively blame a combination of poor information management by Mexican health officials and irresponsible reporting by the media. They assured us a bullet was heading straight for our collective forehead; it now appears evident that at worst, the bullet is several months away, if it's even coming at all. The immediate, grave danger appears to be non-existent, which changes everything. Whatever may be coming, we probably have several months to prepare.

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Post #: 117

RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 5/1/2009 2:18:41 AM

RCdc

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda
Exactly, Dark. Or to put it another way, for people who are unfamiliar with what "pandemic" means, a pandemic could be seen as just an epidemic on a global level. Really, the flu that goes around the world each flu season is just an annual pandemic, albeit of a relatively benign virus.

What makes me breathe easier about this strain is that right now, it really doesn't seem to be as immediately lethal as it was initially being reported. For that, I tentatively blame a combination of poor information management by Mexican health officials and irresponsible reporting by the media. They assured us a bullet was heading straight for our collective forehead; it now appears evident that at worst, the bullet is several months away, if it's even coming at all. The immediate, grave danger appears to be non-existent, which changes everything. Whatever may be coming, we probably have several months to prepare.

The only thing that really worries me is that I might get struck down with it when Mercnbeth are over here and I have to miss seeing them!(Ah... I am ever the pessimist)

the.dark.

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 5/1/2009 6:09:19 AM

ScooterTrash

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Just FYI;

New name and not from pigs

WHO to stop using term 'swine flu' to protect pigs

GENEVA -- The World Health Organization announced Thursday it will would stop using the term "swine flu" to avoid confusion over the danger posed by pigs. The policy shift came a day after Egypt began slaughtering thousands of pigs in a misguided effort to prevent swine flu.

WHO spokesman Dick Thompson said the agriculture industry and the U.N. food agency had expressed concerns that the term "swine flu" was misleading consumers and needlessly causing countries to ban pork products and order the slaughter of pigs.

"Rather than calling this swine flu ... we're going to stick with the technical scientific name H1N1 influenza A,"

"The swine flu virus originated in pigs, and has genes from human, bird and pig viruses. Scientists don't know exactly how it jumped to humans. In the current outbreak, WHO says the virus is being spread from human to human, not from contact with infected pigs.

"Egypt began slaughtering its roughly 300,000 pigs Wednesday even though experts said swine flu is not linked to pigs and not spread by eating pork. Angry farmers protested the government decree."
In Paris, the World Organization for Animal Health said Thursday "there is no evidence of infection in pigs, nor of humans acquiring infection directly from pigs."

Killing pigs "will not help to guard against public or animal health risks" presented by the virus and "is inappropriate," the group said in a statement.

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RE: Swine flu transmitted to humans Mexico/USA - 5/1/2009 6:41:52 AM

LaTigresse

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Yes, like almost all viruses it is a mutation with very little resemblance to it's origins. Which is why I felt, even discussing pigs and how they are raised today, in this thread, rediculous.

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