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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 6:54:35 PM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline 		You're opinion is far from uneducated.
Since no one seems to have the "answer", we are all free to speculate.
What do we have to lose?
 
One caveat I have to add, I and many other's will hardly revert to ANY rampant spending behavior any time soon.

As I look around at people losing their jobs, homes, etc.,
the last thing many of us will do, is spend rampantly.

< Message edited by MzMia -- 10/4/2009 7:07:59 PM >

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:23:10 PM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
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Status: offline 		Sorry folks. Modest growth has already ended the recession.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:28:01 PM   
slutslave4u


Posts: 217
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Status: offline 		Growth??

Obama said that we have lost less jobs in just the last month....yet it was all over the news that the month of Sept alone there were a recorded 263,000 jobs lost in just that one month......more in Sept than in any previous month

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:28:34 PM   
MzMia


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Sorry folks. Modest growth has already ended the recession.


lol, whatever you say!
pay no attention to the rising ranks of the unemployed, it means nothing!


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Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

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Profile   Post #: 24
RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:36:12 PM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
Status: offline 		Well, strictly by the definition of recession/depression, it doesn't. That's what you asked, isn't it?

True, it's a jobless recovery. This is not unusual coming out of a recession. Granted, still sucks for the unemployed.

Ridicule it and be a bitch if you like. You asked a question, you got the answer. I'm sorry you didn't care for it.

http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/monthly-economic-outlook-%11-september-2009-2009090995775/

< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 10/4/2009 7:44:12 PM >

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:41:50 PM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline 		MM, I am not only looking for answers "that I like".
We are all entitled to our opinions.

Ideally, I hope you are right!
I just don't see how we can be in a "recovery" with unemployment rising,
and no end in sight.

< Message edited by MzMia -- 10/4/2009 7:44:00 PM >

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:51:44 PM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
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Status: offline 		http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28300084/page/2/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobless_recovery

< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 10/4/2009 7:52:32 PM >

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:52:57 PM   
nakedthinker


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quote:

ORIGINAL: slutslave4u

Growth??

Obama said that we have lost less jobs in just the last month....yet it was all over the news that the month of Sept alone there were a recorded 263,000 jobs lost in just that one month......more in Sept than in any previous month

quote:

slutslave4u


Um... I'm not sure what news source you thought said that September's job losses were worse than any previous month, but that is simply incorrect. Early in 200, there were over 700,000 jobs lost each month for several months in a row.

Now, there may now be more people collectively unemployed (meaning that you count all unemployed people that became unemployed from any month but that are still unemployed now) rather than just job losses right now than in any previous month, but monthly job losses are down to about one-third of what they were earlier in the year. Roughly one out of ten people who wants to work right now is unemployed. That number is something like double if you count all of the people who are no longer actively looking for work because they have given up.


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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:55:35 PM   
TheHeretic


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From: California, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery


Ridicule it and be a bitch if you like. You asked a question, you got the answer. I'm sorry you didn't care for it.




Fine, Muse, just let all the air out of the balloon. 



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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:57:24 PM   
Musicmystery


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Status: offline 		September Bureau of Labor Statistics

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 7:59:29 PM   
NeedToUseYou


Posts: 2297
Joined: 12/24/2005
From: None of your business
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Sorry folks. Modest growth has already ended the recession.


Well, it only came at the cost of virtually zero percent interest, dumping money in the banks, transfering billions in risk, giving billions to people to buy a car, ect....

I mean, seriously, I can "induce" growth to if I dump trillions into something, that's really not sustainable growth though.

What happens when the governments position reverts to a sustainable position? CAsh for Clunkers ended now sales have tanked again, for example. They can't hold the accelerator down forever, and induce forever. I mean, its a little nuts to me, when CNBC starts harping over the market going up, and ignoring the over the top actions the government is taking to induce just that. As if the situation is sustainable.

Like I said, we may have an "induced" mini bubble, but that accelerator the government is pressing will eventually have to be let up on a bit or stop entirely, to allow for refueling. What happens then?

5 % 10% 20 % anybody?



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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 8:02:35 PM   
rulemylife


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

MM, I am not only looking for answers "that I like".
We are all entitled to our opinions.

Ideally, I hope you are right!
I just don't see how we can be in a "recovery" with unemployment rising,
and no end in sight.


He didn't give you an opinion, he gave you facts.

And it was also made clear how unemployment lags in an economic recovery.

It is up to you to choose to ignore the facts.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 8:07:49 PM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Sorry folks. Modest growth has already ended the recession.


Well, it only came at the cost of virtually zero percent interest, dumping money in the banks, transfering billions in risk, giving billions to people to buy a car, ect....

I mean, seriously, I can "induce" growth to if I dump trillions into something, that's really not sustainable growth though.

What happens when the governments position reverts to a sustainable position? CAsh for Clunkers ended now sales have tanked again, for example. They can't hold the accelerator down forever, and induce forever. I mean, its a little nuts to me, when CNBC starts harping over the market going up, and ignoring the over the top actions the government is taking to induce just that. As if the situation is sustainable.

Like I said, we may have an "induced" mini bubble, but that accelerator the government is pressing will eventually have to be let up on a bit or stop entirely, to allow for refueling. What happens then?

5 % 10% 20 % anybody?


You forgot the extended unemployment benefits also.
The other shoe will drop, it's just a question of "when".


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Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/5/2009 12:52:49 AM   
HatesParisHilton


Posts: 3513
Joined: 12/27/2006
Status: offline 		if people are as rock fucking stupid and selfish and refuse to change LIFESTYLE verus investment protocols, depression IS on the way, no MATTER what Obama or Rudd manage to pull off.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/5/2009 1:09:42 AM   
maz123


Posts: 7
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		the situation we are coming into now is the same as the US faced in the Great Depression; by going deep into debt it meant that future government revenue had to be kept high in order to pay off that debt which stymied investment, which meant that while the rest of the world came out of the Depression in 1935-37 America was still suffering pains in 1941. the problems now are that the rest of the world followed Roosevelt's example, the US economy is actually more imortant than it was in the 1930s and the debt burden before the GFC was effectively at 100% for most OECD governments. the 'Depression/ Recession' is over but the money required for significant (ie Job creating) future growth is now tied up in repaying more debt and the interest on that debt.

< Message edited by maz123 -- 10/5/2009 1:10:43 AM >

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/5/2009 8:01:09 AM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
Status: offline 		No. That's the situation we faced in the 80s. And the economy we have now is similar to that in 1991 (including the unemployment rate).

Your Great Depression comparison glosses over a pile of stuff. And it's hardly the same--we'd need 25% unemployment, for example. And Europe responded with world war--putting them in a poor economic situation afterward, which the U.S. took advantage of, giving us (temporarily) the prosperity of the 50s. Looking through the replies, though, this is clearly an emotional discussion determined to have a depression lament. As facts and data to the contrary don't seem to matter, I'll leave you to it.



< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 10/5/2009 8:07:53 AM >

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/5/2009 8:36:54 AM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
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~ Fast Reply ~

Snapshots of statistics don't provide indicators of when a 'Depression' will occur. For those unemployed as a result of factories closing, banks merging, and stores going bankrupt; the Depression is occurring.

The numbers generated this year are artificial, especially when compared to their 1929 counterparts. Unlike then, the President and Congress, did not implement any 'bail-out' plan or 'stimulus'. Sales and production numbers were not positively influenced by 'cash for clunkers' programs. Gold was still the standard of value. Borrowing rates were set by access and use, not artificially established by the government in an effort to stimulate purchasing and investing. (Investing in new business opportunities NOT the stock market)

Yet with all that effort, cornerstone businesses, like Saturn are closing. Banks are still not lending because individuals don't meet the new, and closely monitored guidelines. The lending pendulum has swung from the pinnacle of "find a way to make the loan" attitude; to "find a way to turn down the loan".

I heard consideration for a 'cash for refrigerator cluckers' program which may provide more artificial numbers pointing to 'recovery'. Do you see any of the current 'positive' numbers reflected when you go to a mall, or driving down the street and see the abnormal number of boarded up storefronts or 'going out of business' sales?

These government numbers are taken with confidence by some instead of what they see and what they hear from people in business or working for a business. The only growth industry is government bureaucracy. With unemployment rising there soon will come a day when not enough revenue can be taken in the form of taxes from those still employed to support the bureaucracy. It is already happening in CA.

By the end of this month we'll have a better indication. October is always a critical month when corporations finalize their annual projections. To date, not one sector has met 'plan'. If that trend continues, although by definition we may not be in a 'Depression'; it will look and feel like one.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/5/2009 8:37:54 AM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		Things are pretty much set into motion.

5 cities will be nuked....  tho we did buy a few months.   New York- Chicago, Miami, Beijing, and Moscow.

It is all a done deal.

We won't see 2020.     Each day tho is a bonus.

(not depressed-  just my assessment-   the final battle is on the horizon-- Praise the lord!)


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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/5/2009 8:42:37 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

Things are pretty much set into motion.

5 cities will be nuked....  tho we did buy a few months.   New York- Chicago, Miami, Beijing, and Moscow.

It is all a done deal.

We won't see 2020.     Each day tho is a bonus.

(not depressed-  just my assessment-   the final battle is on the horizon-- Praise the lord!)





Did jesus ring you up and give you the 5 cities? Is this airtight? 'Cause I am thinking about putting a fiver on this. So I have a bottle of champagne to toast the meltdown. I hope they do it when a west wind is blowing, so I can taste unadulterated champagne.

R

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/5/2009 8:46:53 AM   
HatesParisHilton


Posts: 3513
Joined: 12/27/2006
Status: offline 		GREAT. so I get to die from rad poisoning instead of the Big Pretty Flash?

that fucking sux.

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