quote:

ORIGINAL: Saint

I am afraid to see the world in 20 years actually. There have already been so many changes to it just within my own short life-span that sadden me tremendously. Overpopulation is rising exponentially, food shortages are occurring in the world, there is not one part of the planet that is not polluted to some extent, crime is continually increasing, morality is slipping to the wayside, personal rights and freedoms are constantly being eroded, natural resources are becoming scarcer with each passing day, etc. etc. and the list goes on. Is it any wonder I choose not to have children? It simply is not fair to them to come into a world slipping deeper towards a cesspit with every passing day.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MichiganHeadmast

We've always been a few years away from peak oil.  In the 1800's it was predicted oil would run out in a decade or two, maximum.

There are known reserves of shale oil that dwarf the known reserves of crude.  As crude goes up in price, and as new technologies come online, it will become economical to extract oil from shale.

And then of course there are those refrigerator-sized nuclear generators that are under development.

I suspect the lights will stay on a bit longer. 

quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

quote:

ORIGINAL: MichiganHeadmast

We've always been a few years away from peak oil.  In the 1800's it was predicted oil would run out in a decade or two, maximum.

There are known reserves of shale oil that dwarf the known reserves of crude.  As crude goes up in price, and as new technologies come online, it will become economical to extract oil from shale.

And then of course there are those refrigerator-sized nuclear generators that are under development.

I suspect the lights will stay on a bit longer. 

Damn it!

I really hate when I have to agree with you, but I remember back in the '70's being told by my teachers that the oil supply would be exhausted by 1990.

quote:

ORIGINAL: auditguy

It will never collapse.  Progress will just keep marching along to its own drum beat, with a few blips here and there.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MichiganHeadmast

We've always been a few years away from peak oil.  In the 1800's it was predicted oil would run out in a decade or two, maximum.

There are known reserves of shale oil that dwarf the known reserves of crude.  As crude goes up in price, and as new technologies come online, it will become economical to extract oil from shale.

And then of course there are those refrigerator-sized nuclear generators that are under development.

I suspect the lights will stay on a bit longer. 

quote:

ORIGINAL: Dubbelganger

quote:

ORIGINAL: MichiganHeadmast

We've always been a few years away from peak oil.  In the 1800's it was predicted oil would run out in a decade or two, maximum.

There are known reserves of shale oil that dwarf the known reserves of crude.  As crude goes up in price, and as new technologies come online, it will become economical to extract oil from shale.

And then of course there are those refrigerator-sized nuclear generators that are under development.

I suspect the lights will stay on a bit longer. 

Assume a midpoint value for EROEI of 5; that is, it takes 1bbl of oil to recover 5 bbl. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_oil_extraction

Assume approx 3 trillion bbl of technically feasible shale oil.

Extraction uses 20% of that, leaving net 2.4 trillion bbl.

Current world daily oil consumption is 84 million bbl.

Assuming demand is static, that would give about an 82 year supply for the world. But demand is not static. Demand is estinated to grow by about 3.5% per annum; it will double to 168 million bbl per day in 20 years. That's about 1 billion bbl in only 6 days. 10 billion in 60 days. 100 billion in 600 days. 1 trillion in 6000 days, or 16.8 years.

There's a formula for calculating exponential decline, but I don't have a natural log function on my little solar calculator. But it's obvious that, with a modest 3.5% annual consumption rate, that 3 trillion barrels would last much less than 82 years.

Here's a well-footnoted treatise on post Peak Oil.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

And here's a quote about oil shale:
"The average citizen . . . is led to believe that the United States really has no oil supply problem when oil shales hold "recoverable oil" equal to "more than 64 percent of the world's total proven crude oil reserves." Presumably the United States could tap into this great oil reserve at any time. This is not true at all. All attempts to get this "oil" out of shale have failed economically. Furthermore, the "oil" (and, it is not oil as is crude oil, but this is not stated) may be recoverable but the net energy recovered may not equal the energy used to recover it. If oil is "recovered" but at a net energy loss, the operation is a failure. "


Do you understand, or no?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

But you do understand that if we lose oil, we are kind of screwed anyway. All it takes is peak oil and beyond and then the shit will really hit the fan.

I suppose one has to ask, just what is your county's economy based on, trade you might have a chance, as sail power and animal power is still available, but if oil is economy, then as the stuff is getting more expensive to find, extract and  produce, that country might find themselves pissing into the wind.

But then, if your country has a hefty military, your country's survival might be at the cost of weaker countries, as you can bet your bottom dollar, the military will have a hefty reserve of fuel already stored away for just such a scenario

quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

I suspect that as petro becomes more expensive, nuclear fission looks better. Just permit reenrichment...

Fissile material is close to inexhaustible.

That said, the cost of plastic will skyrocket, making all materials more expensive.  But energy can always be produced by other means.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Icarys

Something will eventually takes it's place..or a multitude somethings. We are much more resilient of a species to just sit down and watch the world crumble around us.