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Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/14/2011 9:33:05 PM   
DarkSteven


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Status: offline 		I am trying to look ahead to the GOP primary in 2012, and it's foggy as heck.  I am specifically trying to determine who the initial field will be, and when Palin will withdraw, as I assume she will.

I assume the initial lineup will look something like this:

Palin
Bachmann
Romney
Gingrich

and then things get weird.  Huck will sit it out if Palin runs, possibly if Bachmann runs, and definitely if both run. They all draw from the same constituency.  Huntsman will likely run if he can get enough funds together.  I expect Barbour to run.  Christie might be playing coy but I get the feeling he's either not planning to run, or else waiting for another election.  I believe Jeb Bush doesn't want to run.  Trump loves the idea of running but has no clue what politics is, and what it's like to have to watch his mouth - I expect he'll either not run or else quit in disgust early on.

I expect Palin to withdraw, claiming the stresses on her family.  She'd rather be a Twittering head, but she needs to run for Prez to embellish her resume and up her speaker fees.  When she withdraws, she'll try to give her votes to another candidate.  I'd expect Bachmann, but I suspect that the two of them will hate each other by then.

I expect a primary that is far more vicious than previous ones.  Palin and Bachmann might get roughed up for being lightweights, and Palin might come under fire for the Bridge to Nowhere and for the stuff leaking out about her.  Romney will definitely take flak for Romneycare and for his religion.  Gingrich might get skewered for infidelities.  Huntsman is a Mormon, and he's worked with Obama, and in these sad days, being willing to work with others is political death.  I don't know enough about Barbour to know what his weaknesses are.

Any other guesses/prognostications?



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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/14/2011 10:02:00 PM   
DarkestDezirez


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Status: offline 		I'm gonna go out on a limb and go for Jon Huntsman.

But I wish Christine O'Donnell or Mother Sarah and the Sisters of Perpetual Misery would take it.

dd.

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/14/2011 10:07:52 PM   
DarkSteven


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Status: offline 		At this point, picking the winner is like pulling a rabbit from a hat.  I was thinking more of figuring out what would happen along the way, not just at the destination.

That said, Huntsman would likely appeal to the moderates more than anyone else except maybe Romney.  That'd be a huge plus in the general election but might hurt him in the primary.


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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/14/2011 10:14:22 PM   
popeye1250


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Status: offline 		Steven, what we've been sorely lacking in the w.h. for a long time now is a good Manager.
Much as I don't care for his abrasive personality I'd have to admit that Donald Trump would fit that bill and more.


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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/14/2011 10:19:20 PM   
tazzygirl


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Status: offline 		He certainly knows his way around bankruptcy courts.

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/14/2011 10:34:58 PM   
TheHeretic


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Status: offline 		You left out Pawlenty and Daniels, Steve, though I despair of a man who thinks we need a truce on social issues in a Republican primary.

I think Huntsman can overcome having served in the Obama administration by an appeal to patriotism, and some cheap shots at his former boss ("he tries to get good people, and then doesn't listen to them"), and turn it into the biggest foreign policy asset on the bench. The Mormon thing? I think that will carry more weight in the minds of Christian hating bigots, than it will for most Christians.

I don't think Christie will run, but I'd certainly support him over "4 more years" if he did turn out to be a big fat liar on that.

Gingrich... Fucking Gingrich. He's smart and driven, with a good resume, but he has never struck me as a very nice sort of person.

Palin and Bachmann. A decent debate on a televised stage should take care of these, nicely.

??? When Bush I was at 90% approval in the polls at this stage 20 years ago, who had heard of Ross Perot? In this day of social media, couldn't we see dark horses, charging from YouTube and Facebook, only their hoofbeats would be as thumbs posting Twitter updates?

The less popular Obama is, the crazier the Republican will be. I've been saying for quite a while that yes, if Obama screws up badly enough, Palin could beat him.

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/14/2011 10:46:10 PM   
popeye1250


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

He certainly knows his way around bankruptcy courts.


Tazzy, I wish the people in Washington knew about bankruptcy courts instead of using *our money* to bailout big corporations.

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/14/2011 11:58:59 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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Status: offline 		Add Pawlenty and Daniels, take out the women and Gingrich and youve got 4 out of the 5 real contenders. Whos the 5th? Unknown. While Romney has to be the early favorite I'll go with Daniels if you give me 3:1 odds.

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 1:37:43 AM   
Arpig


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quote:

Steven, what we've been sorely lacking in the w.h. for a long time now is a good Manager.
Much as I don't care for his abrasive personality I'd have to admit that Donald Trump would fit that bill and more.
Oh Christ, I hope not for you guys' sake.

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 4:01:32 AM   
Fellow


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Status: offline 		I am interested who would be from Democrat side. Will Obama run for the second term and who will be the challengers?

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 4:22:16 AM   
Sanity


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Are you afraid that he would balance our budget? Or whats your point.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Arpig

Oh Christ, I hope not for you guys' sake.


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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 4:57:31 AM   
MstrssScarlet


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow

I am interested who would be from Democrat side. Will Obama run for the second term and who will be the challengers?


People have been extremely disillusioned with Obama and I think he has put the democrats at a huge disadvantage in this race. Their chilidish behavior (walking out on votes and hiding in hotels) isn't going to do anything to help their image either. Doesn't really matter who runs on the Democrat side at this point - they're probably going to lose. I'd be suprised if you don't see the Republicans pick up a lot of power over the coming years.

Mistress Scarlet

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 4:59:28 AM   
Louve00


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Status: offline 		Maybe he means Trump would make a TV show out of all of America?

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 5:01:13 AM   
tazzygirl


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Joined: 10/12/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


Are you afraid that he would balance our budget? Or whats your point.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Arpig

Oh Christ, I hope not for you guys' sake.




He filed for bankruptcy three times. Lets not even talk about him balancing a budget.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 6:06:47 AM   
Sanity


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From: Nampa, Idaho USA
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He has the savvy to get where he is from bankruptcy?

Thats a bad thing how.

Anyway, with his business experience he couldnt be any worse than a Jr. Senator / community agitator with NO business experience

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

He filed for bankruptcy three times. Lets not even talk about him balancing a budget.


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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 6:10:29 AM   
Moonhead


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Status: offline 		How about the "independent" Lieberman?

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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 6:16:46 AM   
Sanity


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From: Nampa, Idaho USA
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All contributions towards the goal of pushing Independents further right are greatly appreciated.

Thank you, and have a nice day! 


quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead

How about the "independent" Lieberman?


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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 6:18:48 AM   
mnottertail


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


He has the savvy to get where he is from bankruptcy?

Thats a bad thing how.

Anyway, with his business experience he couldnt be any worse than a Jr. Senator / community agitator with NO business experience

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

He filed for bankruptcy three times. Lets not even talk about him balancing a budget.



He had a very large pile of money from his father.  Thats not savvy.
Roughly the same as W.


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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 6:21:44 AM   
Sanity


Posts: 22039
Joined: 6/14/2006
From: Nampa, Idaho USA
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Well, Obama inherited 5% unemployment and two dollar gas and said hed make the world love us...

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

He had a very large pile of money from his father.  Thats not savvy.
Roughly the same as W.



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RE: Wanna play GOP 2012? - 3/15/2011 6:28:43 AM   
truckinslave


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Status: offline 		I've only heard T-Paw once, but I found him very charismatic....

Gingrich is a sufficiently skilled debater to make 0bama0 look like the empty suit he truly is. If there is another shutdown and the independents blame the Dims this time around, that too could work to his favor.

Huck, no real shot. Ditto the Cuda, although if gas gets high enough she might catch some wind in her sails. I think Bachman is pushing the internecine budget battle to gauge Tea Party reaction. If the economy worsens, a dark horse is a real possibility.

But the winner is likely to be chosen as a result of events yet to occur, as I indicated above. I think a big, successful terrorist attack means 0bama0 loses 57 states.

I expect this summer to be full of sound and fury. Wisconsin was only the start of the state battles. Major budget fight in DC, with the final skirmish maybe this week. Lots and lots and lots of tea Parties, with much of the attention spent on establishment Rs who don't insist on budget proposals Dims find unacceptable (imo every R who fails to vote to defund 0bama0Care, the NEA, NPR, the list goes on, should count on a serious primary fight).

There's too many knife fights coming up to pick winners....

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