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Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:22:17 AM   
FirmhandKY


Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004
Status: offline 		Apparently, Cain and Bialek have already been tested by the most modern of lie detector devices.  According to a CBS newstory:

Investigator: Herman Cain innocent of sexual advances
Private investigator TJ Ward said presidential hopeful Herman Cain was not lying at a news conference on Tuesday in Phoenix.
Cain denied making any sexual actions towards Sharon Bialek and vowed to take a polygraph test if necessary to prove his innocence.

Cain has not taken a polygraph but Ward said he does have software that does something better.

Ward said the $15,000 software can detect lies in people's voices.

CBS Atlanta's Mike Paluska played Cain's speech for Ward into the software and watched as it analyzed Cain's every word.

If he is hiding something this thing would have spiked way down here," said Ward.  "He is being truthful, totally truthful.  He is a man with integrity and he talked directly about not knowing any incident he is accused of."

The software analyzes the stress level and other factors in your voice.  During the speech, when Cain denied the claims, the lie detector read "low risk."  According to Ward, that means Cain is telling the truth.

During the section of Bialek's news conference where she says, "He suddenly reached over put his hand on my leg under my skirt and reached for my genitals he also grabbed my head brought it towards his crotch."

During the analysis of that section the software said "high risk statement."  Ward said that means she is not  telling the truth about what happened.

"I don't think she is fabricating her meetings," said Ward.  But, she is fabricating what transpired."

Ward said nearly 70 law enforcement agencies nationwide use the voice software, including the Forsyth County Sheriff's Office.

Ward said the technology is a scientific measure that law enforcement use as a tool to tell when someone is lying and that it has a 95 percent success rate.

Since this part of the accusations is all "he said/she said", I'm not sure that any greater "definitive proof" will be available.

Anyone familiar with this software?

Firm


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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:32:37 AM   
Nosathro


Posts: 3319
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From: Orange County, California
Status: offline 		Still to the best of my knowledge, a polygraph test of any kind is not admissiable in a court of law.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:32:53 AM   
tazzygirl


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Status: offline 		You are aware of his ties to Republicans.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:34:47 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

You are aware of his ties to Republicans.

ipso facto he is lying?

Firm


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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:36:48 AM   
tazzygirl


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Status: offline 		Did I say he was lying?

I made a statement, something that should be considered along with the rest.



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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:40:50 AM   
Kirata


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Anyone familiar with this software?

Researchers with the Oklahoma Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services (including this author) used these VSA programs while questioning more than 300 arrestees about their recent drug use. The results of the VSA output—which ostensibly indicated whether the arrestees were lying or telling the truth—were then compared to their urine drug test results. The findings of our study revealed:
    • Deceptive respondents. Fifteen percent who said they had not used drugs—but who, according to their urine tests, had—were correctly identified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.

    • Nondeceptive respondents. Eight and a half percent who were telling the truth—that is, their urine tests were consistent with their statements that they had or had not used drugs—were incorrectly classified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.
Using these percentages to determine the overall accuracy rates of the two VSA programs, we found that their ability to accurately detect deception about recent drug use was about 50 percent.

Reference: NIJ Journal No. 259, March 2008

K.


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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:45:32 AM   
Aylee


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Anyone familiar with this software?

Firm



No. But it is rather neat. Although the paranoid part of my is a bit frightened by it as well.



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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:46:04 AM   
Nosathro


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Anyone familiar with this software?

Researchers with the Oklahoma Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services (including this author) used these VSA programs while questioning more than 300 arrestees about their recent drug use. The results of the VSA output—which ostensibly indicated whether the arrestees were lying or telling the truth—were then compared to their urine drug test results. The findings of our study revealed:
    • Deceptive respondents. Fifteen percent who said they had not used drugs—but who, according to their urine tests, had—were correctly identified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.

    • Nondeceptive respondents. Eight and a half percent who were telling the truth—that is, their urine tests were consistent with their statements that they had or had not used drugs—were incorrectly classified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.
Using these percentages to determine the overall accuracy rates of the two VSA programs, we found that their ability to accurately detect deception about recent drug use was about 50 percent.

Reference: NIJ Journal No. 259, March 2008

So what this is saying is there is a 50/50 chance not very good.

K.





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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:47:10 AM   
Sanity


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Does that statement mean that you believe that two of the accusers' ties to Obama are of significance?

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

You are aware of his ties to Republicans.


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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:50:58 AM   
Hillwilliam


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Anyone familiar with this software?

Researchers with the Oklahoma Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services (including this author) used these VSA programs while questioning more than 300 arrestees about their recent drug use. The results of the VSA output—which ostensibly indicated whether the arrestees were lying or telling the truth—were then compared to their urine drug test results. The findings of our study revealed:
    • Deceptive respondents. Fifteen percent who said they had not used drugs—but who, according to their urine tests, had—were correctly identified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.

    • Nondeceptive respondents. Eight and a half percent who were telling the truth—that is, their urine tests were consistent with their statements that they had or had not used drugs—were incorrectly classified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.
Using these percentages to determine the overall accuracy rates of the two VSA programs, we found that their ability to accurately detect deception about recent drug use was about 50 percent.

Reference: NIJ Journal No. 259, March 2008

K.



Sounds like, according to your study, it's about as effective as a coin flip.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 7:58:14 AM   
mnottertail


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Anyone familiar with this software?

Firm




Our sherriffs department has it, and the detective I asked about it says it is horseshit, because people who are in that habit (or sociopathic if you will) do not stress out and people who find the situation stressful look guilty.

As he said it, it makes the one who was robbed look guilty.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 8:23:04 AM   
Owner59


Posts: 17033
Joined: 3/14/2006
From: Dirty Jersey
Status: offline 		Anyone who`s an adult and breathing knows that lie detectors are one of the most easily manipulated devices around.The operator and questions,setting and the machine`s settings are key to it being affective.As well,the bias operator, can make the needle go either way they want it to.

This isn`t for the general public tho,this is for the cult member`s consumption.

Cain best be careful or he`ll be challanged to pass a real die-detector test done by a real FBI trained operator.He`s dealing with Allred, afterall

< Message edited by Owner59 -- 11/10/2011 8:25:03 AM >

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 8:39:00 AM   
Hippiekinkster


Posts: 5512
Joined: 11/20/2007
From: Liechtenstein
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Anyone familiar with this software?

Researchers with the Oklahoma Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services (including this author) used these VSA programs while questioning more than 300 arrestees about their recent drug use. The results of the VSA output—which ostensibly indicated whether the arrestees were lying or telling the truth—were then compared to their urine drug test results. The findings of our study revealed:
    • Deceptive respondents. Fifteen percent who said they had not used drugs—but who, according to their urine tests, had—were correctly identified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.

    • Nondeceptive respondents. Eight and a half percent who were telling the truth—that is, their urine tests were consistent with their statements that they had or had not used drugs—were incorrectly classified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.
Using these percentages to determine the overall accuracy rates of the two VSA programs, we found that their ability to accurately detect deception about recent drug use was about 50 percent.

Reference: NIJ Journal No. 259, March 2008

K.



So the VSA has the same accuracy rate as a coin toss? Hey, an Eisenhauer silver dollar doesn't cost $15K.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 8:39:14 AM   
FirmhandKY


Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Anyone familiar with this software?

Researchers with the Oklahoma Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services (including this author) used these VSA programs while questioning more than 300 arrestees about their recent drug use. The results of the VSA output—which ostensibly indicated whether the arrestees were lying or telling the truth—were then compared to their urine drug test results. The findings of our study revealed:
    • Deceptive respondents. Fifteen percent who said they had not used drugs—but who, according to their urine tests, had—were correctly identified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.

    • Nondeceptive respondents. Eight and a half percent who were telling the truth—that is, their urine tests were consistent with their statements that they had or had not used drugs—were incorrectly classified by the VSA programs as being deceptive.
Using these percentages to determine the overall accuracy rates of the two VSA programs, we found that their ability to accurately detect deception about recent drug use was about 50 percent.

Reference: NIJ Journal No. 259, March 2008

Thanks K.

I read the entire article and tried to determine which type and manufacturer of the particular software was being used by the PI in the article. 

I've not yet been able to determine whose software (and therefore which algorithm) is being used.

Some notes:

1.  The software reviewed in the article was written in 1997.

2. The article was published in 2008.

3.  They did not publish their study design in detail.  Not denying the results, but I tend to be a "detailed how was it done" kinda of guy.

I specifically wanted a better understanding of this paragraph from the article:

The specificity rates—the percentage of nondeceptive respondents who, based on their urine tests, were correctly classified as nondeceptive—were much higher, with an average of 91.5-percent accuracy for the five drugs. Again, LVA performed better, correctly identifying 95 percent of the nondeceptive respondents; CVSA® correctly identified 90 percent of the nondeceptive respondents.

This appears to say that both types of VSA programs were fairly accurate in identifying subjects who told the truth.  If this is true, then it's more of a "truth detector" than a "lie detector".

As I get time, I'll try to see if I can identify the specific software used by PI and if there is more research on it's effectiveness.

Firm


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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 8:48:12 AM   
Kirata


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Wiki has a page on it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voice_stress_analysis

Not encouraging, but maybe not the final word. Still, I haven't found anything so far to suggest that there have been significant improvements...

Except, of course, the claims of the manufacturers.

K.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 8:48:31 AM   
Hillwilliam


Posts: 19394
Joined: 8/27/2008
Status: offline 		According to what I can find, VSA's are more useful determining truth in statements by people who don't know their veracity or lack of same is being judged.

For instance, in a wire tap or otherwise recorded conversation, it would be quite useful. If someone is being interrogated or is on a podium speaking, stress levels automatically go up making it a bit more problematic.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 9:00:47 AM   
Kirata


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

According to what I can find, VSA's are more useful determining truth in statements by people who don't know their veracity or lack of same is being judged.

For instance, in a wire tap or otherwise recorded conversation, it would be quite useful. If someone is being interrogated or is on a podium speaking, stress levels automatically go up making it a bit more problematic.

That makes sense. Any data on how accurate they are in best-case circumstances?

K.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 9:03:15 AM   
Hillwilliam


Posts: 19394
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Status: offline 		Nothing quantitative, Kirata. It seems to be more of an art than a science.

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Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 9:15:34 AM   
farglebargle


Posts: 10715
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From: Albany, NY
Status: offline 		You can't judge software without auditing its source code. Until the vendor provides it for examination, then we can just disregard any claims he's making.

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RE: Cain, Bialek and Lie Detectors - 11/10/2011 9:15:59 AM   
willbeurdaddy


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Status: offline 		There is only one test needed for two of the accusers, and they are both clearly liars. The test? Gloria Allred.

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