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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 8:32:25 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

I love how people try to make stupid stats on rape when many arent even reported.

You can parse the numbers differently, if you wish tazzy.

Let's say that only half of all rapes are reported, with more or less 100,000 a year.  Which means that if 50% of those are false, there are about 50,000 false reports a year.  Or if you like the 10% number, we have about 10.000 false reports a year.

The total number of unreported rapes doesn't affect the actual numbers of false reports.

Firm


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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 8:35:10 AM   
slvemike4u


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No,but it would have a huge impact on the percentage figure,would it not?
If all rapes were reported would not that 50% number shring,perhaps even dramatically ?

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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 8:36:10 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u

No,but it would have a huge impact on the percentage figure,would it not?
If all rapes were reported would not that 50% number shring,perhaps even dramatically ?

uhh ... which is why I translated them into real numbers?

Firm


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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 8:37:30 AM   
mnottertail


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well if 50% are unreported we are at 50% of 50% of 50% or 12%. so, what we have is that since he has two settlements that means at 12% caught.....you do the math, but the boy is a fucking horn dawg, hah?

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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 8:41:06 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

well if 50% are unreported we are at 50% of 50% of 50% or 12%. so, what we have is that since he has two settlements that means at 12% caught.....you do the math, but the boy is a fucking horn dawg, hah?

Do you have any creditable source on a second settlement?

Firm


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Profile   Post #: 25
RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 8:45:19 AM   
mnottertail


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Nope, do you have one to discredit the second settlement? How about one on Jennifer Flowers?

Hey, I don't give a fuck, the guy is nothing but a fuckin piss poor pizza peddler and he ain't got the ghost of a fuckin shot.....


I like the theater.


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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 8:48:02 AM   
slvemike4u


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Your basic assumption of looking at each case individually is quite handy for analysis purposes Firm....but disingenuous when you are looking at the big picture and the probability that Cain actually did these things.See no matter how you cut it the very frequency of the accusations lend statistical weight to the charges.
Allow me to ask you a question...are you flexible enough,can you contort yourself into a tight enough ball so as to give Penn States Sandusky the same benefit of the doubt ?

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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 8:50:00 AM   
tazzygirl


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

well if 50% are unreported we are at 50% of 50% of 50% or 12%. so, what we have is that since he has two settlements that means at 12% caught.....you do the math, but the boy is a fucking horn dawg, hah?


If half the rapes are never reported, why would anyone consider half of those would be falsely reported?


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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 8:53:53 AM   
mnottertail


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2/.125 = 16....there are about 12 more coming out of the woodwork by playing the bullshit innumeracy games here, under the guise of analysis and Wiener yes/Cain no defense, pretty much having to be agreed by all, near as I can make out from reading this thread.

THAT is my point. Fuckin pizzacutter if cooked, end of joke.

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 11/11/2011 8:54:20 AM >


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Profile   Post #: 29
RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 9:02:45 AM   
DomYngBlk


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

No it is NOT!

But thanks for letting us know how you take these matters.

My ex was constantly hit on and pressured for sex by her employers.

Twice, she was fired for not cooperating.

Wasn`t fun, wasn`t a good time,wasn`t theater.If fact is was quite hurtful and changed her view of the world for the worse.

The two men who victimized her? Went on to open more restaurants and fuck more of their female employees.

Makes one wish for the days when dueling was legal.

I would like dueling to be legal again as well, Owner.

While not denying or attempting to minimize your ex's experiences, the question about the accusations about Cain are indeed political theater.  It's a political issue in most every major sense.  Doesn't make it non-serious.  It doesn't make it less painful for actual personal experiences.  But neither does it reduce or distract from the entertainment value of the public political theater.

War is hell, but there are truck loads of war movies, books, and games out there.

So, please, don't attempt to shut down the debate through that route, huh?

Now ... one of the things that some people seem to be saying is "why should she lie"?

I dunno.  Why do people ever lie?  Sometimes for good reason, sometimes for no reason.  Sometimes "just because".

But, if you don't think that there is a possibility that some or all of these women have either fabricated, or been influenced to make these accusations, then you're mind is already closed to the facts, and you are operating on opinion.

And, before you say it: yes, I hold the possibility that Cain did this stuff, or worst, open.

"But why should they lie?!"

Why do women lie about rape, a much more serious crime?  Figures run from 2% to 90% of rape accusations are false.  A more creditable figure seem to be around 10%. But there is pretty good evidence that the number approaches 50%.

This 50% number comes from The Forensic Examiner:


The Forensic Examiner® is the official peer-reviewed journal of the American College of Forensic Examiners International, the non-profit complementary division to the American College of Forensic Examiners Institute. The site serves as your source of information for all aspects of the journal, including article archives, contacting the staff, inquiring about advertising in the journal, and of course, subscriptions.

What I find most interesting, however, are the reasons that women report false rapes:


Approximately half of the accusers who were motivated by a need for an alibi identified the alleged rapist. Their goal was not to harm or cause problems for the acquaintance, but to protect themselves in what they perceived to be a desperate situation. As with most lies, the false rape accusation allowed the accuser to deny responsibility by creating an alternate reality into which to escape.

The next most common reason for lying about being a victim of rape was revenge, rage, or retribution. In the Midwest study, this included 27% of the non-student and 44% of the student accusers. In these cases, the false victim had suffered some real or perceived wrong, rejection, or betrayal by the alleged rapist. As the purpose of making the accusation was to obtain some measure of revenge, the "suspect" was always identified. Researchers in the Air Force study also found that spite or revenge and the need to compensate for a sense of personal failure through an alibi accusation were the primary motives for false rape reports.

There are a range of other reasons why women made false allegations of rape. For some, it was to meet the overwhelming need for attention often associated with Munchaussen Syndrome or Borderline Personality Disorder. In those cases a specific suspect was seldom identified. Others filed false reports in an attempt to essentially "extort" money from the accused, who was typically wealthy. Because the goal was financial, the accuser was typically not motivated to pursue the case through formal legal channels, preferring to push for a settlement.

As with certain false allegations of child sexual abuse, false allegations of rape may be the unfortunate byproduct of "recovered memory therapy." False allegations (of child abuse and domestic violence, as well as rape) are also known to arise in the context of divorce and disputed child custody. Within the context of the military, false reports of rape may be filed in order to avoid deployment to war zones.

I think that in this case, the possibility of political and ideological motives should be added.  So, we have the following main reasons why these women may have falsely accused him sexual harassment:


1. An alibi,
2. Revenge, rage or retribution,
3. Compensation for a sense of personal failure,
4. Overwhelming need for attention.
5. Financial motives (not through legal channels, but for settlements)
6. Political


Now, if you can take the other position: why did Cain do the harassment, yet claim that he didn't as well.  And I welcome you to do so.  But that's not the position that I'm taking right now (although, as I've said, I leave that possibility open).

Do any of the four women who have claimed to have been harassed by him possibly fit into any of these categories?  I think you can make a good argument for each of them to fit in at least one, and generally more than one of them.

Firm


Although your list is lengthy you seem to be missing the point that the women are saying they were sexually harrassed at the workplace by mr. cain. Not raped. I think it would be harmful to mix the two up firm.

As well, are you then saying that the women at the NRA made these false claims back in the 90's took a settlement in the knowledge that one day herman cain would run for president and that these allegations would then be uncovered?

Stopped believing in the easter bunny quite a bit ago firm....think maybe you should give it up sometime soon.

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Profile   Post #: 30
RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 9:06:38 AM   
tazzygirl


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~FR

Fox reported the numbers to be 41%.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,194032,00.html

A British Study said 3%.

Austrailian study, 2%

Kanin's study was quite interesting. Based upon only 109 complaints.

Kanin's report

quote:

In 1994, Dr. Eugene J. Kanin of Purdue University investigated the incidences of false rape allegations made to the police in one small urban community between 1978 and 1987. He states that unlike those in many larger jurisdictions, this police department had the resources to "seriously record and pursue to closure all rape complaints, regardless of their merits." He further states each investigation "always involves a serious offer to polygraph the complainants and the suspects" and "the complainant must admit that no rape had occurred. She is the sole agent who can say that the rape charge is false." The number of false rape allegations in the studied period was 45; this was 41% of the 109 total complaints filed in this period.[8]
[edit]Criticism
Critics of Dr. Kanin's report include Dr. David Lisak, an associate professor of psychology and director of the Men’s Sexual Trauma Research Project at the University of Massachusetts Boston. In an article in the September/October 2007 issue (vol. 11 no. 1) of the Sexual Assault Report, titled "False allegations of rape: a critique of Kanin," he states "Kanin’s 1994 article on false allegations is a provocative opinion piece, but it is not a scientific study of the issue of false reporting of rape. It certainly should never be used to assert a scientific foundation for the frequency of false allegations." Lisak cites page 13 of Investigating Sexual Assaults from the International Association of Chiefs of Police which says polygraph tests for sexual assault victims are contraindicated in the investigation process and that their use is "based on the misperception that a significant percentage of sexual assault reports are false." Lisak argues that "It is noteworthy that the police department from which Kanin derived his data used or threatened to use the polygraph in every case… The fact that it was the standard procedure of this department provides a window on the biases of the officers who conducted the rape investigations, biases that were then echoed in Kanin’s unchallenged reporting of their findings."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_accusation_of_rape#FBI_statistics

Since that "study" in 1994, every study has shown the false allegations reporting has been less than 10%

As far as underreporting of rapes...

quote:

Under reporting
According to the American Medical Association (1995), sexual violence, and rape in particular, is considered the most under-reported violent crime.[4][5]

The most common reasons given by victims for not reporting rapes are the belief that it is a personal or private matter, and that they fear reprisal from the assailant. A 2007 government report in England says "Estimates from research suggest that between 75 and 95 per cent of rape crimes are never reported to the police."[6]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics

Now, can we get off the "they are all lying because women who cry rape are lying half the time" kick? With the usage of DNA as evidence, those days of false reportings are going by the way side. False assault on a female, I would believe at 40%. Rape no.

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Profile   Post #: 31
RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 9:41:42 AM   
Nosathro


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Frankly I think it was a good idea for those who accused Cain and Cain to meet to meet and hopefully come to some resoluation of this. Cain, as any one has the right to publicly face his accuser. However, as I suspected there are alot of hidden agenda going on and there is a lack of news coverage, which I think was one of the accusers goal.

As to rape I do believe there are real cases of this. But one can not discount false reports nor that there are alternative motives to make such claims. The one that sticks out for me is the Tawana Brawley Hoax. A girl claimed she was kidnaped and raped by police officers. The Rev. Al Sharpton ran this throught press almost daily with claims of racism and such by police. In the end no evidence nor did Brawley after making claims of rape by police testify at a Grand Jury investation, it was finally demed a hoax. Some of those who worked for Rev Al Sharpton left stating the Rev new it was a hoax and he wanted to find a way to get attention so he could use it as a platform to gain attention.

http://eightiesclub.tripod.com/id315.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tawana_Brawley_rape_allegations

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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 10:10:23 AM   
tazzygirl


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quote:

The one that sticks out for me is the Tawana Brawley Hoax.


One out of how many rapes a year?

According to UCR (the FBI's crime stats),there are 28.7 per 100.000 people.

Now, why did Tawana's case fall apart? Lack of evidence and changing stories.

Why did she do it?

quote:

Possible motives
Much of the grand jury evidence pointed to a possible motive for Brawley's falsifying the incident: trying to avoid violent punishment from her mother and her stepfather Ralph King. Witnesses testified that Glenda Brawley had previously beaten her daughter for running away and for spending nights with boys. King had a history of violence that included stabbing his first wife 14 times, later shooting and killing her. There was considerable evidence that King could and would violently attack Brawley: when Brawley had been arrested on a shoplifting charge the previous May, King attempted to beat her for the offense while at the police station. Witnesses have also described King as having talked about his stepdaughter in a sexualized manner.[20] On the day of her alleged disappearance, Brawley had skipped school to visit boyfriend Todd Buxton, who was serving a six-month jail sentence. When Buxton's mother (with whom she had visited Buxton in jail) urged her to get home before she got in trouble, Brawley told her, "I'm already in trouble." She described how angry Ralph King was over a previous incident of her staying out late.[21]
There was evidence that Brawley's mother and King participated knowingly in the hoax. Neighbors told the grand jury that in February they overheard Glenda Brawley saying to Mr. King, "You shouldn't have took the money because after it all comes out, they're going to find out the truth." Another neighbor heard Mrs. Brawley say, "They know we're lying and they're going to find out and come and get us."[20]
In April 1989, New York Newsday published claims by a boyfriend of Brawley's, Daryl Rodriguez, that she had told him the story was fabricated, with help from her mother, in order to avert the wrath of her stepfather.[22] Writing about the case in a 2004 book on perceptions of racial violence, sociologist Jonathan Markovitz concluded "it is reasonable to suggest that Brawley's fear and the kinds of suffering that she must have gone through must have been truly staggering if they were enough to force her to resort to cutting her hair, covering herself in feces and crawling into a garbage bag."[5]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tawana_Brawley_rape_allegations

At 15, pushed into it by her mother, a mother who had beaten the girl before... a father with a violent criminal past....

Yeah.

But, of course, the reasons why were totally lost on everyone... and still ignored to this day.

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Profile   Post #: 33
RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 10:18:58 AM   
TheHeretic


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quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u
Where are their values now?



Probably in the same sort of internal compartment where the liberals put their feelings about the President of the United States being repeatedly accused of sexual misconduct and harassment, and the established fact that he liked using at least one White House intern for little sex shows and blowjobs.



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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 10:21:01 AM   
tazzygirl


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lol.. smacks of envy

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Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
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Profile   Post #: 35
RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 10:28:56 AM   
Nosathro


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

quote:

The one that sticks out for me is the Tawana Brawley Hoax.


One out of how many rapes a year?

According to UCR (the FBI's crime stats),there are 28.7 per 100.000 people.

Now, why did Tawana's case fall apart? Lack of evidence and changing stories.

Why did she do it?

quote:

Possible motives
Much of the grand jury evidence pointed to a possible motive for Brawley's falsifying the incident: trying to avoid violent punishment from her mother and her stepfather Ralph King. Witnesses testified that Glenda Brawley had previously beaten her daughter for running away and for spending nights with boys. King had a history of violence that included stabbing his first wife 14 times, later shooting and killing her. There was considerable evidence that King could and would violently attack Brawley: when Brawley had been arrested on a shoplifting charge the previous May, King attempted to beat her for the offense while at the police station. Witnesses have also described King as having talked about his stepdaughter in a sexualized manner.[20] On the day of her alleged disappearance, Brawley had skipped school to visit boyfriend Todd Buxton, who was serving a six-month jail sentence. When Buxton's mother (with whom she had visited Buxton in jail) urged her to get home before she got in trouble, Brawley told her, "I'm already in trouble." She described how angry Ralph King was over a previous incident of her staying out late.[21]
There was evidence that Brawley's mother and King participated knowingly in the hoax. Neighbors told the grand jury that in February they overheard Glenda Brawley saying to Mr. King, "You shouldn't have took the money because after it all comes out, they're going to find out the truth." Another neighbor heard Mrs. Brawley say, "They know we're lying and they're going to find out and come and get us."[20]
In April 1989, New York Newsday published claims by a boyfriend of Brawley's, Daryl Rodriguez, that she had told him the story was fabricated, with help from her mother, in order to avert the wrath of her stepfather.[22] Writing about the case in a 2004 book on perceptions of racial violence, sociologist Jonathan Markovitz concluded "it is reasonable to suggest that Brawley's fear and the kinds of suffering that she must have gone through must have been truly staggering if they were enough to force her to resort to cutting her hair, covering herself in feces and crawling into a garbage bag."[5]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tawana_Brawley_rape_allegations

At 15, pushed into it by her mother, a mother who had beaten the girl before... a father with a violent criminal past....

Yeah.

But, of course, the reasons why were totally lost on everyone... and still ignored to this day.

What was Brawley motivation for all this is tragic. My point is that there were those who knew the real story and explotited it for there own personal goals.

_____________________________

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Profile   Post #: 36
RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 10:33:05 AM   
Lucylastic


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FR

Anthony weiner stood down, and no one here stood up for him,let s come closer to the actual reality time line shall we
we know clinton had a position of power mutual fuck scene.
Nice wriggle room back to clinton and ignoring the man of the moment
Using wonky "rape" statistics is bogus tooo.
piling on your ignorance...WEEEEEEEEEEE you go guys

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RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 10:38:05 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

Using wonky "rape" statistics is bogus tooo.
piling on your ignorance...WEEEEEEEEEEE you go guys


tazzy,

I'm more than willing to use any reasonable number, Lucy.  In my original post on the subject, I suggested 10% as creditable.

You want to use the 8% from the FBI?

Is that an aceptable number to you, Lucy?

Firm

edited to name Lucy, rather than tazzy.

Dammit!


< Message edited by FirmhandKY -- 11/11/2011 11:02:44 AM >


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Profile   Post #: 38
RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 10:38:42 AM   
tazzygirl


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quote:

What was Brawley motivation for all this is tragic. My point is that there were those who knew the real story and explotited it for there own personal goals.


The exact can be said for men who commit violent rape.... exploiting women for their own personal gain.

But, this isnt about rape. This is about sexual harassment. Ever been in that position? Many women have to some degree. Some are mild, so women can push it to the back of their minds. Some are traumatizing. Is it your contention that only those traumatized should be the one's who come forward?

What would be your solution? No reporting without absolute semen proof? Wont work ina marriage or other intimate relationship.

Give solutions.... Instead of making excuses for your man while dragging victims (Tawana was a victim too) through the mud.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to Nosathro)
Profile   Post #: 39
RE: Cain Accusers' Press Conference ... - 11/11/2011 10:40:41 AM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
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contrary to popular belief I am not Tazzy
however, Rape is a much more far reaching crime than just the US..and the figures dont actually seem to change that much between "civilised" worlds.

edited to add to Tazz
Exactly !!!!


< Message edited by Lucylastic -- 11/11/2011 11:11:04 AM >


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\(•_•)
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Profile   Post #: 40
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