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DarkSteven -> RE: The possibility that the GOP does NOT want to face. (1/24/2012 8:25:42 AM)
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I made a mistake. I had thought that the 1968 Democratic convention was not decided on the first ballot. Per Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968), Humphrey took it on the first ballot. However, the Democratic primary was badly fractured. Note that Humphrey, while winning the electoral vote, only received 2.21% of the popular vote!
The similarities between the 1968 Dem primary and the 2012 GOP primary are striking. The fields are bitterly factionalized. in 1968, per Wiki:
With Johnson's withdrawal, the Democratic Party quickly split into four factions, each of which distrusted the other three. - The first faction comprised labor unions and big-city party bosses (led by Mayor Richard J. Daley). This group had traditionally controlled the Democratic Party since the days of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, and they feared their loss of control over the party. After Johnson's withdrawal this group rallied to support Hubert Humphrey, Johnson's Vice President; it was also believed that President Johnson himself was covertly supporting Humphrey, despite his public claims of neutrality.
- The second faction, which rallied behind Senator Eugene McCarthy, was composed of college students, intellectuals, and upper-middle-class whites who had been the early activists against the war in Vietnam; they perceived themselves as the future of the Democratic Party.
- The third group was primarily composed of Catholics, African-Americans, Hispanics, and other racial and ethnic minorities as well as several antiwar groups; these groups rallied behind Senator Robert F. Kennedy.
- The fourth group consisted of white Southern Democrats, or "Dixiecrats". Some members of this group (probably older ones remembering the New Deal's positive impact upon rural areas) supported Vice President Humphrey, but many of them would rally behind George C. Wallace and the Alabama governor's third-party campaign in the general election.
In the current GOP race, we have
the moderates, who support Romney;
the libertarians, who support Paul;
the social conservatives and the conservative wingnuts, who are split between Santorum and Gingrich;
those who simply want the candidate most able to defeat Obama, who are split between Romney and Gingrich although Santorum is actively courting them;
and the anybody-but-Romneys, who are split between the other three.
Romney is trying to create an anybody-but-Gingrich faction, which presumably would give him most of their support.
All we need is a massive protest at the GOP convention by Libertarians and Ron Paul supporters who feel marginalized, and the parallel would be complete except for the assassination. We even have a weak sitting President and an unpopular war.
quote:
ORIGINAL: DomYngBlk
I smell jeb bush coming to the "rescue"
That would be political suicide for the GOP. To have an outsider come and take the nomination away from the current four candidates would lay the GOP open to charges of political machine tactics and smoke-filled rooms. The GOP cannot afford to alienate its voters further.
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