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DarkSteven -> RE: The possibility that the GOP does NOT want to face. (2/21/2012 3:58:37 AM)
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Well, at this point, there are four candidates left. Frum addresses the possibility of a brokered convention: Brokered convention? IMO, Frum is so party-centric in looking for analogies that he overlooks the 1968 Dem concention, which I consider most applicable.
That would be more analogous to a 2012 brokered GOP convention. The Democratic Party was highly factionalized, with four separate camps per Wikipedia. in 2012, we have: the Libertarians, who support Paul; the moderates and party kingpins, who support Romney; the social conservatives and evangelicals, who are split between Gingrich and Santorum; and the Tea Partiers, who are split between Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul. Many of them are in no mood to compromise with the others, and in today's world of tweets and blogs, any ugliness will get outed quickly.
Despite today's short-term emphasis on winning elections, losing the 2012 election would not be the worst thing that could befall the GOP. Losing a major bloc would be. In 1968, the Democrats lost the Dixiecrats from their party - I could see some moderates and Tea Party types defecting to become Independents.
Some GOP insiders are so unhappy with the way the primary is going that they are talking about injecting another candidate into the race at this point, which IMO would be insanity: A fifth candidate?
Edited to add: I'd also like to address TheHeretic's statements regarding the 1968 convention not being applicable because there won;t be riots this time around: true, however, I can see nonviolent protests, and tweets/blogs/etc. I can see similar anger and bruised feelings, as well as the very real possibility that some of the disaffected could split off the GOP, similar to the Dems losing the Dixiecrats in 1968. The only good news for the GOP is that the disgruntled people will end up Independents rather than Dems.
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