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Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmussen ... - 5/11/2012 11:26:02 AM   
Arturas


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In spite of the President "evolving" into a pro same sex marrage kinda guy, just a day or so ago, and having dinner with the Hollywood greats and having that thing splashed all over MSNBC and CNN all morning, it still leaves him seven points behind
Romney, the GOP guy, up from three points ahead of Obama just yesterday after he announced he (he being the current President) was pro gay marrage.

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Romney-Rasmussen-poll-half/2012/05/11/id/438776

How can this be?

< Message edited by Arturas -- 5/11/2012 11:32:16 AM >


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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 11:35:12 AM   
Hillwilliam


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Rasmussen says that this below is the top 10 in things Americans think are important as of today.








http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/importance_of_issues

I don't see gay marriage anywhere. Red herring?

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< Message edited by Hillwilliam -- 5/11/2012 11:36:30 AM >


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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 11:37:52 AM   
Moonhead


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Only when teh Knyan talks about it.
If pisspants is blathering about it, then it's a vital issue for national security and the dignity of every American, even the breeders.

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 11:40:15 AM   
SilverMark


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Poll Average, tells a bit different story....http://realclearpolitics.com/

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 12:12:27 PM   
mnottertail


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So what about rassmussen doesnt anybody get?  That is our daily mail of polling, or for the yanks, the national enquirer of polling.

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 12:34:28 PM   
MasterSlaveLA


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As anyone who's frequented these boards knows, I FUCKING DESPISE BAROCCOLI O'FUCKUP -- but in truth, any "polls" with regard to O'Failure or Mittens at this point in time are rather meaningless.  With regard to the "gay marriage" issue?!!  I'm not so sure that, in itself, could account for the swing in the current polls, as it's not likely ANYONE with more than three functioning brain cells EVER felt O'Liar was anything but pro-gay-marriage?!!

I heard on the radio a few days ago (so don't have the source for the claim) that for the recent "job numbers", for every ONE job that was created, THREE people dropped out of the "looking" pool.  If true, then I'd think THAT would certainly have more bearing on the reason for the shift in polling numbers?!! 



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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 12:35:47 PM   
Hillwilliam


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterSlaveLA

As anyone who's frequented these boards knows, I FUCKING DESPISE BAROCCOLI O'FUCKUP --

REALLY?????


I had no idea.

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 12:47:52 PM   
tj444


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ummmm... I tend to go more by this one:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

(its got pretty colors)

< Message edited by tj444 -- 5/11/2012 12:51:25 PM >


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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 12:50:37 PM   
Mupainurpleasure


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Only poll that counts is the one we go to in NOV. Rasmussen makes a living giving the right the polls they want to hear

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 12:55:50 PM   
lovmuffin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mupainurpleasure

Only poll that counts is the one we go to in NOV. Rasmussen makes a living giving the right the polls they want to hear



Based on results he has been the most accurate predictor though it's a bit early at this point.

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 1:02:21 PM   
MasterSlaveLA


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mupainurpleasure

Rasmussen makes a living giving the right the polls they want to hear



Umm... WRONG!!!

. . . . .


2010 -- In December 2009, a full 11 months before Election Day, a Democratic strategist concluded that if the Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot data was accurate, Republicans would gain 62 seats in the House during the 2010 elections. Other polls at the time suggested the Democrats would retain a comfortable majority. The Republicans gained 63 seats in the 2010 elections.

The Pew Center noted that Rasmussen Reports beat traditional media in covering Scott Brown's upset win in Massachusetts earlier this year: "It was polling-not journalistic reporting-that caught the wave in the race to succeed Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy."  Rasmussen Reports was also the first to show then-candidate Ron Johnson as a serious threat to former Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold and the first to document Arlen Specter’s troubles in both the Pennsylvania Republican and Democratic Primary races.

Rasmussen’s final 2010 projections were published in the Wall Street Journal projecting that the Republicans would gain 55 or more seats in the House and end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats. The Republicans ended up with a gain of more than 60 House seats and 47 Senate seats. Scott Rasmussen noted that “it would be wise for all Republicans to remember that their team didn't win, the other team lost. Heading into 2012, voters will remain ready to vote against the party in power unless they are given a reason not to do so.”    

Once again in 2010, Rasmussen Reports polling provided an accurate preview of Election Night outcomes. See how we fared compared to other polling firms in the competitive races around the nation.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, noted, “This was one tough election to poll and forecast. Rasmussen Reports caught the major trends of the election year nationally and in most states.”

2009— Rasmussen Reports was closest of all polling firms to the actual results in the New Jersey governor’s race. On reviewing that race, longtime political analyst Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!" We also projected accurately a comfortable victory for Republican Bob McDonnell in Virginia.

2008-- Barack Obama won 53%-46%, and our final poll showed him winning 52% to 46%.

2006— Rasmussen Reports was the first to show Republican Senator Conrad Burns in trouble in Montana, the first to show Republican Senator George Allen trailing in his bid for reelection in Virginia and the first to project that Democrats could win control of the Senate. See 2006 results for Senate and Governor.  

2004-- George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote, while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates' totals within half a percentage point (see our 2004 results).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/public_relations/press_room/press_releases/the_rasmussen_reports_track_record



< Message edited by MasterSlaveLA -- 5/11/2012 1:03:06 PM >


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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 1:10:20 PM   
Mupainurpleasure


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anecdotal evidence is worthless. I was speaking of consistant statistically measured bias. i bet they have a dozen more just like you rferenced but that is not an analysis is it? I posted an analysis based on aggragate numbers not singel polls .

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 1:12:45 PM   
lovmuffin


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What did he say ???

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 1:16:45 PM   
SternSkipper


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quote:

Only when teh Knyan talks about it.
If pisspants is blathering about it, then it's a vital issue for national security and the dignity of every American, even the breeders.


Get it right will ya?

it's PeePantsIn2012

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 1:41:53 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mupainurpleasure

Only poll that counts is the one we go to in NOV. Rasmussen makes a living giving the right the polls they want to hear



Based on results he has been the most accurate predictor though it's a bit early at this point.

Really?
Just a sample of Rasmussen's accuracy:
2010 Hawaii Senate race
Rasmussen Inouye 53% Cavasso 40%
PPP Inouye 65% Cavasso 29%
Actual result Inouye 75% Cavasso 22%

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 1:43:39 PM   
MasterSlaveLA


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Ahem...

http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php#reportcard




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< Message edited by MasterSlaveLA -- 5/11/2012 1:47:40 PM >


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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 1:47:42 PM   
lovmuffin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mupainurpleasure

Only poll that counts is the one we go to in NOV. Rasmussen makes a living giving the right the polls they want to hear



Based on results he has been the most accurate predictor though it's a bit early at this point.

Really?
Just a sample of Rasmussen's accuracy:
2010 Hawaii Senate race
Rasmussen Inouye 53% Cavasso 40%
PPP Inouye 65% Cavasso 29%
Actual result Inouye 75% Cavasso 22%



So.....if we go by that we can see he fucked one up. If we look up at what MSLA posted we can see he usually gets it right.

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 1:52:20 PM   
DomKen


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That's an analysis, a fairly naive one at that, of one race's polling. the source for your table
http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

Some analysis of the 2008 presidential primaries, a more dynamic and complicated set of races:
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/

Rasmussen is well down the list here which is a much more statistically relevant sample. The Nate Silver study linked above also details quite well the failings of Rasmussen in 2010.

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 1:54:18 PM   
mnottertail


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Regarding intrade, that was for the last month of the election.  Up until that that time, they were so fuckin far out of round it was laughable.  

Let me know rasputins numbers in October.

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 2:01:33 PM   
lovmuffin


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I think you guys are just worried that your guy isn't doing too well.

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