RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmussen Poll?

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 10:04:12 PM

SternSkipper

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quote:

Hey, how about you actually research WHO had THE MOST ACCURATE POLLING for the 2008 Presidential Election the next time you're demonstrating your "intelligence"?!!

Pssst... it was Rasmussen (GASP!!!)

Pssst how would you know that Kookla Fran & Ollie website you get your 'facts' from?

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 10:06:03 PM

MasterSlaveLA

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Pssst... it's called GOOGLE -- learn how to use it.

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 10:41:05 PM

SternSkipper

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Joined: 3/7/2004
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quote:

Pssst... it's called GOOGLE -- learn how to use it.

Guess what honey... I have about 25 more years involvement with Internetworking Protocols than you. Unless you're on a Mac, I've worked for the company that makes your operating system, the company that pioneered that little soho router you just plug the pretty wires into (if that), and if you use email at an enterprise level, probably that product too. And all at the expert level.
Stick to what you do best and enjoy the twit filter.
Buh Bye

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Post #: 43

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/11/2012 10:42:29 PM

SternSkipper

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Love that ignore setting.

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Post #: 44

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 1:04:53 AM

MasterSlaveLA

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SternSkipper

Stick to what you do best

Yes, I will continue to repeatedly expose the falsehoods you and your ilk attempt to peddle -- while laughing at how EASY it is to do so.

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Post #: 45

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 6:32:27 AM

DarkSteven

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The polls are all over the place. It's a sign of Obama's weakness that he's not crushing Romney. Romney has no strengths really. I suspect that the election is more a reflection on Obama and that almost any GOP opponent (except maybe Paul) would fare essentially the same.

The polls I want to see are the ones in the swing states. I KNOW that Obama will win California and New York and that Romney will take Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho.

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 7:30:20 AM

Musicmystery

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterSlaveLA

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Don't let the data confuse you.

Gawd, the Left really are that slow... note the link used in YOUR post and the link used in MY post:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

http://www.fordham.edu/campus_resources/enewsroom/inside_fordham/february_17_2009/news/creator_of_polling_w_34493.asp

quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterSlaveLA

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

Figure it out yet?!! THEY'RE FROM THE SAME FUCKING SITE!!! So obviously the SAME SITE YOU USED for your "paragon of proof" must be complete bullshit then, huh?!!

Good. Now check the DATES of those documents and see which one is more current.

But here's the data you're pretending doesn't exist, which traces the history and brings us up to date:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Sigh. One guy types a page, posts it on the Internet, and you're the paragon of proof in your mind. Whatever.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Rasmussen has been slipping since 2006, worse each election cycle.

But believe whatever you want.

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Post #: 47

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 7:33:34 AM

Musicmystery

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quote:

The polls are all over the place. It's a sign of Obama's weakness that he's not crushing Romney. Romney has no strengths really. I suspect that the election is more a reflection on Obama and that almost any GOP opponent (except maybe Paul) would fare essentially the same.

And they will be through November.

This election cycle is weird because, while what you say is true, that weak support is still far stronger than support for Congress, and even Congress polls higher than the Republican Party. Mitt has his work cut out for him.

Economic news will likely sway this one.

(in reply to DarkSteven)

Post #: 48

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 7:36:42 AM

mnottertail

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So, what we will state with some (but not overwhelming) certainty, is that if the election was held today (which it isnt) but not last week, or in the future (and rasmussen was in charge of the election) that Romney might win give or take the error, or Obama might win give or take the error.

Is that a fair representation? If it is, there would be no reason to alert the media, or start sending troops into Iran and Korea in advance of the second coming.

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Post #: 49

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 8:00:43 AM

SternSkipper

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quote:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

http://www.fordham.edu/campus_resources/enewsroom/inside_fordham/february_17_2009/news/creator_of_polling_w_34493.asp

Muse ... how DARE you put forward a source like a Triple-A rated college of LAW & POLITICAL SCIENCE, when a DIRECT-X Gamer Who can't even prevent his shit from being hacked already presents the facts and to the specifications set for by NASA's nipple clamp division?

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RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 8:13:57 AM

SternSkipper

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Joined: 3/7/2004
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quote:

This election cycle is weird because, while what you say is true, that weak support is still far stronger than support for Congress, and even Congress polls higher than the Republican Party. Mitt has his work cut out for him.

Economic news will likely sway this one.

People also haven't been paying attention of Romney's ability to hold up under pressure. He loses it and gets very angry, very easily. He flipped out half a dozen times during his gubernatorial term and things didn't go well for him at all.
When the debates come, I happen to know that they are targeting this aspect and when Obama starts jabbing at Mitt he is going to come unglued completely (at least in rounds one and two... my prediction is that they'll drug for the last one or two and he'll seem like a victim. That worked for Dubyah. But with Dubyah, a lot of women got sucked in by that cowboy vulnerability. And the same women I know liken Mitt to "a guy who's been caught with lipstick on his collar and tries to say racoons must've done it"... REALLY My friend Laura actually put it that way.
All this shit is going to hurt him badly and it may or may not show up in the polls.

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Looking forward to The Dead Singing The National Anthem At The World Series.

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Post #: 51

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 8:44:48 AM

Musicmystery

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

So, what we will state with some (but not overwhelming) certainty, is that if the election was held today (which it isnt) but not last week, or in the future (and rasmussen was in charge of the election) that Romney might win give or take the error, or Obama might win give or take the error.

Is that a fair representation? If it is, there would be no reason to alert the media, or start sending troops into Iran and Korea in advance of the second coming.

That's right. Romney may or may not win the election in November, and Obama may or may not be the winner in November instead. That much we know.

(in reply to mnottertail)

Post #: 52

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 9:00:32 AM

mnottertail

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Is everybody pretty much agreed that its down to those two as I said at the outset?

Ron Paul is out of consideration?

Wonder who Willard is gonna tap for running mate?

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Post #: 53

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 9:54:09 AM

MasterSlaveLA

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But... But... But... I thought, ACCORDING TO YOU, we were supposed to ignore that website?!! Oh... but now they're "slipping", huh?!! Hmmm... doesn't change that the website YOU cite stated they were THE MOST ACCURATE in calling the 2008 election, does it?!! Now go ahead... discount the SAME SITE you used again!!!

LOL ! ! !

< Message edited by MasterSlaveLA -- 5/12/2012 9:56:57 AM >

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Post #: 54

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 10:03:24 AM

Musicmystery

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If you don't wish to look at their record, yes, you're ignoring data. Believe what you want to believe.

One guy posted a study. That's your source. If you read any of it, instead of seeing what you wanted, you'd note he didn't even study the more accurate aggregate polling, particularly Zogby (they're local, and they are fanatic about this). The later, more thorough examination of the data---from the newsroom, not a graduate student's paper this time--shows the more accurate data.

In 2000, Rasmussen couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. They rose in 2004 and 2006 because they were telling Republican clients what they wanted to hear, and as Republicans were in power, reality reflected the results. But in 2008, they had lost much of that edge, being essentially average, and in 2010, they fell far behind again.

What is it you were saying in another thread about ignoring the data? That's the data.

(in reply to MasterSlaveLA)

Post #: 55

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 10:05:34 AM

Musicmystery

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quote:

that website

The website for the entire university?

You really, really, don't understand what you're looking at. Department pages, faculty pages, students pages, groups....all this and more will be on such a site, and hardly in any uniform fashion.

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Post #: 56

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 10:08:03 AM

Musicmystery

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Joined: 3/14/2005
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quote:

Hmmm... doesn't change that the website YOU cite stated they were THE MOST ACCURATE in calling the 2008 election, does it?!! Now go ahead... discount the SAME SITE you used again!!! LOL ! ! !

By that "logic," the exact same thing is true of you---you're discounting the SAME SITE you used again which pointed out three others as the most accurate in the 2008 election.

Now go ahead....

What a silly game.

OK, here goes....Hmmm... doesn't change that the website YOU cite stated others were THE MOST ACCURATE in calling the 2008 election, does it?!! Now go ahead... discount the SAME SITE you used again!!! LOL ! ! !

(in reply to MasterSlaveLA)

Post #: 57

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 10:09:23 AM

Musicmystery

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

Is everybody pretty much agreed that its down to those two as I said at the outset?

That may or may not be the case, yes.

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Post #: 58

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 10:09:50 AM

MasterSlaveLA

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From YOUR source...

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 59

RE: Oh, No! Romney seven points ahead in todays Rassmus... - 5/12/2012 10:15:05 AM

Musicmystery

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And the game gets sillier.

quote:

From YOUR source...

Creator of Polling Website Reflects on
2008 Presidential Election
By Patrick Verel

When everyone seems to be conducting polls during the next election cycle, your best bet for accurate numbers may be the firms Zogby, AP-GFK or Insider Advantage.

According to Nate Silver, creator of the polling aggregator website fivethirtyeight.com, these were the most accurate polling firms during the 2008 presidential election cycle.

Silver used his Jan. 22 address, “Polls, Predictions and the Role of Internet in the 2008 Elections,” to explain which pollsters most accurately called the presidential race.

Comparing polling firms can be tricky, he said, because pollsters such as Rasmussen Reports include states like Alaska, whereas Zogby sticks to so-called battleground states. Quinnipiac University, which is just north of New York City, did not conduct enough national polls to warrant inclusion in his rankings, but he noted that the university does a good job because it knows its area well.

“If you know your state, you know your region, then you can get a little bit of extra mileage out of it. The regional pollsters seem to do best, better than the kind of whole-hog national pollsters,” Silver told an overflow crowd of students, guests and faculty at the Lowenstein Center’s cafeteria.

He also answered audience questions about topics as varied as the future of Internet polling the effects polls can have on voting patterns.

He did not, however, reveal exactly how fivethirtyeight.com works, except to say that his site assigns polls a weighting based on their track record, sample size and timeliness. The weighting, he said, separates his site from another site, realclearpolitics.com, which also predicted that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain last November.

“Online poll aggregators were a key innovation, and one of the main highlights of the 2008 election cycle,” said Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science and director of the Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy at Fordham.

“Silver and his website provided timely and reliable data and analysis about trends in candidate support over the course of the election.”

Yup. From YOUR source.

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Post #: 60

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