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A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

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What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

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ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

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What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

It's not accurate at all--it rests on a subjective determination.

So they're "right" no matter which way it goes. Damn, academics has fallen a long way.

Nor does this predict a win, even with Romney benefiting as they postulate.

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Election prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” Bickers said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”

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ORIGINAL: subrob1967

So without some major change to the economy in the next 2 months Obama is toast.

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ORIGINAL: OttersSwim

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ORIGINAL: subrob1967

So without some major change to the economy in the next 2 months Obama is toast.

What will you do with your days when Romney shuts down this site and restricts all porn on your computer?

Hell, what will any of us do?!

Really, reconsider who you vote for!

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ORIGINAL: subrob1967


Religion doesn't scare me... It shouldn't scare you either.

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ORIGINAL: subrob1967

Frankly I'm not worried about Romney coming after porn sites, I believe he'll have his hands full undoing the mess the Dems have gotten us into over the last 30 years.

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ORIGINAL: OttersSwim

Yea and 20 of those 30 years were presided over by Republican presidents. Think beyond the stump speech, move beyond the party line - see and critically consider what is actually happening.

Every post I have ever read of yours indicates that you have yet to do this.

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ORIGINAL: OttersSwim

Yea and 20 of those 30 years were presided over by Republican presidents. Think beyond the stump speech, move beyond the party line - see and critically consider what is actually happening.

Every post I have ever read of yours indicates that you have yet to do this.

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ORIGINAL: Destreid

Bull.

The American people can't trust Romney with his Own. Pet. Dog.

He'll never be president.

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Congress writes the checks

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ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Especially since Clinton presided over the longest peacetime expansion in our nation's history.

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ORIGINAL: crazyml

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ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Especially since Clinton presided over the longest peacetime expansion in our nation's history.

Oh. But surely the Bushes did something sane and fiscally conservative... tell me they... I dunno... reduced national debt?