Aswad
Posts: 9374
Joined: 4/4/2007
Status: offline
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: jlf1961
Since when does the wealth of the country determine murder rate?
The twenty worst homicide rates occur in countries at the bottom of the economic scale, except for Bahamas and Trinidad.
The twenty best homicide rates occur in countries at the top of the economic scale, except for Guam, Bahrain and Palau.
In Europe, the best ten are, with parenthesized PPP; murder rate / gun ownership rate, ordered by ascending intentional homicide rate:
Monaco ($63K; 0.0/unknown)
Iceland ($38K; 0.3/30.3)
Norway ($54K; 0.6/31.3)
Austria ($42K; 0.6/30.4)
Slovenia ($29K; 0.7/13.5)
Switzerland ($43K; 0.7/45.7)
Spain ($31K; 0.8/10.4)
Germany ($38K; 0.8/30.3)
Denmark ($37K; 0.9/12.0)
Italy ($31K; 0.9/11.9)
From $29K to $63K, with gun ownership typically about 30 pr 100 capita and averaging 24, with murder rates below 1 pr 100.000 capita per year, averaging 0.63.
The ten worst, in Europe, in order of descending intentional homicide rate, same convention:
Greenland ($37K; 19.2/unknown)
Russia ($19K; 10.2/8.9)
Moldova ($3K; 7.5/7.1)
Lithuania ($19K; 6.6/0.7)
Estonia ($20K; 5.2/9.2)
Ukraine ($7K; 5.2/6.6)
Belarus ($15K; 4.9/7.3)
Georgia ($5K; 4.3/7.3)
Albania ($8K; 4.0/8.6)
Montenegro ($11K; 3.5/23.1)
From $5K to $20K, with gun ownership averaging 8~9 per 100 capita, and murder rates averaging 7 per 100.000 capita per year.
For comparison:
United States of America ($48K; 4.2/88.8)
It's tempting to ascribe it to the number of guns, but I think we need a better factor analysis before making a confident assertion, given that we're interested in the net number of murders, and what influence gun control might have on the net number. Also, per state figures would be interesting, since Iowa (high gun ownership) is comparable to Canada in homicide rates, while Washington DC (median gun ownership) is more comparable to Congo or South Africa, and Connecticut and New Jersey (both low gun ownership) are comparable to the worst European countries.
quote:
So what you are trying to say is that among civilized countries the United States leads the world in homicide rates.
No, I'm saying you're lagging behind in most areas of civilization as a people, and it may contribute to your very high homicide rates.
And I'm saying I want a model that has some reasonable degree of predictive power across nations. Why not set aside a billion or so to collect any data that aren't already being collected, worldwide, then do a diachronic factor analysis to figure out what is most likely to get you the desired results, then work from that and use feedback to refine the model?
IWYW,
— Aswad.
_____________________________
"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.
|
RE: Gun facts - 
Profile
.gif){kind=avatar}
New Messages
No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages
Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages
Locked w/o New Messages
Post New Thread