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Kirata -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 6:53:26 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: DomKen
Source?
Happy White Married People Vote Republican
The Wikipedia entry reviewing the author's career states in part:
Sailer's analyses have been cited by newspapers such as The Washington Times,[14] The New York Times,[15] the San Francisco Chronicle and The Times of London.[16][17] He has been featured as a guest on The Political Cesspool.[18]
Sailer's January 2003 article "Cousin Marriage Conundrum", published in The American Conservative, argued that nationbuilding in Iraq would likely fail because of the high degree of consanguinity among Iraqis due to the common practice of cousin marriage. This article has been republished in The Best American Science and Nature Writing 2004, and in One World, Many Cultures.
After the 2004 US election, Sailer discovered a very strong correlation between voting patterns and fertility rates. He described the fertility link in an article in The American Conservative: "Among the 50 states plus Washington, D.C., white total fertility correlates at a remarkably strong 0.86 level with Bush’s percentage of the 2004 vote. (In 2000, the correlation was 0.85.)"[19] Writing in the New York Times, pundit David Brooks referred to this article as showing the "surprising political correlations" of what he dubbed "natalism".[20]
Sailer later discovered a slightly stronger correlation between marriage rates and voting, and dubbed his theory of modern American voting as "Affordable Family Formation": "a state’s voting proclivities are now dominated by the relative presence or absence of affordable family formation."[21] The correlation between home prices, marriage rates, and voting was verified by George Hawley at the University of Houston, using county-level data for the 2000 election.[22]
On the other side of the ledger, he's been called a racist by Media Matters and the Southern Poverty Law Center for an egregious statement that appeared in a column entitled "Racial Reality And The New Orleans Nightmare." I won't quote it here, but the point may bear making that the Neo-Nazi types don't like him much either: He scorns White Nationalism as being "worse than a crime."
That all aside, his marriage-duration metric surprised me at first. But on reflection, it does seem to make sense that people in stable long-standing marriages would be likely to favor the "family values" theme that Republicans push, and that the GOP would enjoy an advantage in states where there are more of them rather than less.
K.
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