Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (Full Version)

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tweakabelle -> Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 6:38:22 AM)

The situation in Syria seems to be disintegrating rapidly.

The early aim of the revolution - to install a democratic regimes to replace the dicatatorship of the Assads - seems to be submerged under the weight of the Cold Warriors as they face off in yet another proxy war in the region. Human rights are non-existent, both sides kill and torture, massacres are routine and there are reports of both sides using chemical weapons. Bombs have landed in Turkey, Israel and Lebanon.

Already some 90,000 are dead, tens of thousands more injured and millions seeking refuge in neighbouring Turkey and Jordan. External forces are becoming more involved with each passing day. Hezbollah is fighting alongside the Assad regime, Israel has already intervened on a few occasions. France and the UK are abandoning the arms embargo while Obama dithers in Washington. Russia and Iran are supplying Assad, while the Saudis and Qataris arm the rebels. The well-equipped AQ franchise, the Nusra Front goes from strength to strength and seems to be the dominant force in the rebel movement at this point.

Is there any way out of the quagmire before it ignites the entire region?



Rule -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 6:54:26 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
The situation in Syria seems to be disintegrating rapidly.

I agree, though I do not keep a close eye on this war.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
millions seeking refuge in neighbouring Turkey and Jordan

Wisely. Though it may cause Jordan to evict them, or to join either side and establishing order.

Of course Jordan itself may be next and Jodan would be wise to increase its own democratic mechanisms, if any, to prevent such a civil war.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
Is there any way out of the quagmire before it ignites the entire region?

The West will stay out of it as long as possible; they already are extended in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Israel will keep within its borders. Egypt is far away. Iraq is in no position to intervene. Saud Arabia is unlikely to intervene.

Turkey will be circumspect. (Of course both Turkey and Israel will be involved in cloak and dagger business.)

So I think that the situation is pretty well contained and that only Jordan might take an active part - but that there is going on a lot behind the scenes to stop Jordan from taking an active part.



SpanishMatMaster -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 7:59:47 AM)

Hello again tweakabelle, interesting subject matter, thank you.

Well, the title is a bit sensationalistic... cold war days, I remember this as having fear of the human race being lost (pun intended) anytime, of me in a coffee shop looking at the sky with apprehension. No, we are not going to return to those days.

Another difference is that the sides are not so clear. If ever, it would be a mini-cold war where the participants are no longer USA and the USRR / Russia. That one which is only ready to support Syria to a certain limit. The USA are also not really convinced on the "goodness" of the increasingly religious militant rebels. The cold war dynamics is developing more between Iran by one side, and Saudi Arabia / Qatar which are already financing these groups.

Instead of ideologies, we would have religious differences between the fronts. With all the "involvement" of the West, I do not see it playing a decisive role - you only have to compare which would be the favorite "rebel" factions for them, with the ones which are really getting more power. The west intervention is not enough to shift the balance of power in the rebel camp. And I have the impression, with Hezbola already fighting openly, that the same applies for Russia.

Way out? Well, in these cases I always have to ask "who am I?". If I am an almighty God then of course there is a way out, I put some sense in everybody and that was it. But who am I, in this case? The USA? European Union? The Arab League? To know my strategy I have to know my position.

Best regards.



Kirata -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 8:21:12 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

France and the UK are abandoning the arms embargo while Obama dithers in Washington.

Let's hope he keeps on dithering.

Armed Rebels Massacre Entire Population of Christian Village in Syria

The armed rebels affiliated to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) raided the Christian-populated al-Duvair village in Reef (outskirts of) Homs near the border with Lebanon today and massacred all its civilian residents, including women and children.

The Syrian army, however, intervened and killed tens of terrorists during heavy clashes which are still going on in al-Duvair village.

K.



DesideriScuri -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 8:41:39 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
while Obama dithers in Washington.


Considering the shit storms we've created in that region in the past, I, for one, completely support Obama not jumping in. What side does he jump into, and how? Assad's side? That would not be supporting democracy. The rebels? Possibly aligning with AQ affiliates? Can't see that happening, nor can I see it working to the US's benefit.

quote:

Is there any way out of the quagmire before it ignites the entire region?


As I have said before, I think this is a spot for the blue-hats. It might not stop the region from blowing up, but I do think it could limit the damage.





vincentML -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 8:48:15 AM)

quote:

Already some 90,000 are dead, tens of thousands more injured and millions seeking refuge in neighbouring Turkey and Jordan. External forces are becoming more involved with each passing day. Hezbollah is fighting alongside the Assad regime, Israel has already intervened on a few occasions. France and the UK are abandoning the arms embargo while Obama dithers in Washington. Russia and Iran are supplying Assad, while the Saudis and Qataris arm the rebels. The well-equipped AQ franchise, the Nusra Front goes from strength to strength and seems to be the dominant force in the rebel movement at this point.

John McCain never met a war he did not like.

Obama "dithers" for good reason. The American people do not support our active intrusion into Syria. It is not our war. It is GW Bush's war. He and the criminal CheneyRumsfeldTenentRice destablized the region in the name of an unlikely daydreamers' democracy and unleashed the sunni/shia conflagration from the gates of hell. Not worth the death of one more Western boy or girl. Obama made his war mistake in surging Afghanistan. Now he is being taken to task for dithering and hesitating. I hope he is not hesitating. I hope he has decided that we have no vital national interest in aiding anyone in Syria. Damn him if he involves us.



mnottertail -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 9:11:52 AM)

And I long for those cold war days........
With a commie like you!
Cmon and makin cold war so good...
Cmon baby makin cold war so good...




Politesub53 -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 11:43:21 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

France and the UK are abandoning the arms embargo while Obama dithers in Washington.

Let's hope he keeps on dithering.

Armed Rebels Massacre Entire Population of Christian Village in Syria

The armed rebels affiliated to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) raided the Christian-populated al-Duvair village in Reef (outskirts of) Homs near the border with Lebanon today and massacred all its civilian residents, including women and children.

The Syrian army, however, intervened and killed tens of terrorists during heavy clashes which are still going on in al-Duvair village.

K.



You must be getting desperate quoting Iran as an independent source.



Kirata -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 5:01:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

You must be getting desperate quoting Iran as an independent source.

I guess you don't get much news down there in the basement.

Syrian Christians Told Convert, Leave, or Die

K.



kdsub -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 8:35:11 PM)

quote:


Is there any way out of the quagmire before it ignites the entire region?


Yes tweak there is a way...push for the intervention of the Arab League. Support them diplomatically and if peace negotiations fail militarily. If the Arab league unanimously supports direct action and petitions the UN we could get a multinational force. If a security council veto negates UN action then a force of Arab league peace keepers supported by the US should do the trick.

Butch



SpanishMatMaster -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/29/2013 9:24:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

quote:


Is there any way out of the quagmire before it ignites the entire region?


Yes tweak there is a way...push for the intervention of the Arab League. Support them diplomatically and if peace negotiations fail militarily. If the Arab league unanimously supports direct action and petitions the UN we could get a multinational force. If a security council veto negates UN action then a force of Arab league peace keepers supported by the US should do the trick.

Butch

Can you specify how do you want Syria and Lebanon to vote "yes" in this scenario? Thank you.



tweakabelle -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/30/2013 12:48:30 AM)

quote:

Can you specify how do you want Syria and Lebanon to vote "yes" in this scenario? Thank you


Isn't this a bit of a moot point? The Arab League withdrew recognition of the Assad regime several months ago, recognising instead the rebels. This was mainly at the behest of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two Sunni monarchies who are also the leading financiers and arms suppliers to the rebels. Neither of these countries' reigning monarchies has any interest in spreading democracy in the Arab world. Neither Saudi nor Qatar appears to have any qualms about their funds and weapons ending up in jihadi hands. So for the purposes of this particular conflict, the Arab League has reduced itself to another member of the Sunni block.

Also relevant here is Saudi Arabia's intense objections to Iran attending the US-Russian sponsored 'peace conference on Syria' due to be held in the near future. One ought to note Iran's role as chief sponsor of Hezbollah (currently fighting in Syria on Assad's behalf), which is one of the parties in the ruling coalition in Lebanon. Also, Iran openly supports for the Assad regime, and, alongside the Russians, is one of Assad's two major international backers. All of which leads me to wonder how effective a 'peace' conference excluding Iran might be .....



SpanishMatMaster -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/30/2013 2:24:45 AM)

Dear tweakabelle, care you answer my posting to you instead of my posting to kdsub first? Thank you.



Politesub53 -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/30/2013 4:30:12 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

You must be getting desperate quoting Iran as an independent source.

I guess you don't get much news down there in the basement.

Syrian Christians Told Convert, Leave, or Die

K.



As predictable as ever, you gloss over your op and use another dubious source. Keep up the good work.




Politesub53 -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/30/2013 4:42:11 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

quote:


Is there any way out of the quagmire before it ignites the entire region?


Yes tweak there is a way...push for the intervention of the Arab League. Support them diplomatically and if peace negotiations fail militarily. If the Arab league unanimously supports direct action and petitions the UN we could get a multinational force. If a security council veto negates UN action then a force of Arab league peace keepers supported by the US should do the trick.

Butch


You are barking up the wrong tree here Butch. The Arab league wont/cant halt this as the two sides are Sunni/Shia. Saudi, Iran, Qatar and others have already taken sides, it would be hard for them to be seen as peace brokers now.



Kirata -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/30/2013 4:51:12 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

As predictable as ever...

You took the words right out of my mouth. [:D]

K.



Aswad -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/30/2013 5:08:00 AM)

~fr~

On the bright side, the rebels have at least some seeds of hope. We must bear in mind that there are several different groups on the side of the rebellion. Some of the groups we lump together under the FSA are fundamentalist, while others are positively progressive by the standards of that region. For instance, one of these groups has a woman at the top, and has been clear that the only acceptable outcome is one in which the position of women in the country improves, that the freedom they seek is for both genders. This may result in a second civil war if and when Assad is deposed, but it holds the seeds of positive change, unlike the situation in Afghanistan.

Just thought I'd bring a silver lining to the picture.

It could do with one.

IWYW,
— Aswad.



tweakabelle -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/30/2013 5:32:07 AM)

I think you are correct to say that the West is struggling for relevancy in this conflict.

The UK and France have decided to ignore the arms embargo, in the hopes of boosting the non-AQ rebels, who have been losing the internal fight with the fundamentalists among the rebels. But it seems like too little too late. The US is (quite rightly) staying on the sidelines and making noises only. It is unlikely that the Israelis, Saudis and Qataris are acting without green lights from Washington.

At this point in time, it seems like Assad, aided greatly by Hezbollah is getting the upper hand. The Iranians and Russians have sent very clear signals they are standing by Assad. His forces are regaining ground previously lost to the rebels. Initially my sympathies lay with the rebels. Assad is a brutal dictator just as his father was. But the rebels' commitment to democracy and human rights is as questionable as Assad's. And the Israelis are beginning to throw their weight about though whether they are prepared to get the Russians offside over the missiles the Russians are supplying to Assad is yet to be seen.

As thing stand at the moment, there are grave fears that the conflict is going to engulf neighbouring countries like Lebanon, Israel and Turkey. So the most optimistic reading at the moment is that the conflict remains an internal Syrian affair. However I fear there is no easy solution and that there is going tremendous loss of life before any cessation of hostilities or resolution. It's a question of which side is the lesser evil. And even with that low standard, there's no clear answer.



DaddySatyr -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/30/2013 5:48:28 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:



while Obama dithers in Washington.



Considering the shit storms we've created in that region in the past, I, for one, completely support Obama not jumping in. What side does he jump into, and how? Assad's side? That would not be supporting democracy. The rebels? Possibly aligning with AQ affiliates? Can't see that happening, nor can I see it working to the US's benefit.

As I have said before, I think this is a spot for the blue-hats. It might not stop the region from blowing up, but I do think it could limit the damage.



Sorry but anyone that believes that we don't have troops in Syria is fooling themselves. Sure, it's not a lot of troops (the good Lord knows that) but, we're there.



Peace and comfort,



Michael



Politesub53 -> RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? (5/30/2013 6:09:03 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

As predictable as ever...

You took the words right out of my mouth. [:D]

K.


Take a look at your sauce and try and ketchup.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fars_News_Agency



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